Monday, January 5, 2009

The Long, Sad Story of Peyton Manning's 2008 Demise (and Possibly Beyond)

Alright, I've had enough. When I wrote about homers in college football, I said that their number and fervor outpaced those in the National Football League. I stand by that, but it is the homers in the NFL who have pushed me over the edge. Specifically those who refuse to acknowledge Peyton Manning's failings.

My man Angel Navedo wrote an excellent article pointing out that Manning still has work to do before he can be considered the best quarterback of all-time.

And like freaks at night, out came the Indianapolis Colt homers; more specifically, the Peyton Manning genus.

I just can't sit idly by while a bunch of devoted, but severely misguided and misinformed fans bomb on a writer I respect for something that shouldn't even be questioned. Some went so far as to label him stupid, either explicitly or implicitly.

Don't get me wrong, I'm no heroic defender of the downtrodden.

As a senior writer, Angel is both capable of mounting a sound retort and guaranteed a wider audience than anything I could produce. Furthermore, as I completely agree with his assessment, any attacks on his astute observations and opinions are attacks on mine by association.

So, I had the Indy-San Diego Charger game still sitting on my TiVo and decided to re-watch it while taking notes to make sure I stayed focused and objective (and really, really lame). I paid specific attention to the Indy offense—going play-by-play to look at the SD defensive front, the Indy offensive line, and the rushing attack.

While the Colts were on defense, I just looked at the big picture since it's not about getting gashed on individual plays and I wasn't concerned with a single player. For the D, it's all about points allowed and field position.

Lastly, I kept a constant eye towards the specific excuses being trotted out by the Peyton propaganda machine—it's the defense's fault because they couldn't stop the Chargers, especially in overtime; Peyton played as perfectly as his stats indicate (25 of 42, 310 yards, no turnovers, and a touchdown for a rating of 90.4); the offensive line broke down despite the low sack total; the lack of rushing game can't be put on the elder Manning; and everything was against him (phantom penalties, unfair playoff formatting, SD was the more dangerous team, long fields to work with, etc.).

Remember, I was watching the game when I wrote the following (in short-hand). I invite the homers to watch it themselves. You'll see I'm right—maybe not flawlessly so, but close enough—or you really are blinded by your bias. Here we go:

FIRST QUARTER

SD's first possession—
the Chargers start around their own 20, Robert Mathis sacks Phillip Rivers on third and two, SD punts after getting a first down, and the first of many beautiful Mike Scifres' punts pins them on their own nine yard line. Good series for the Indy D.

Indy's first possession—these will be longer so I'll use bullet points:
  • First down and 10 yards to go—seven in the box, Manning reads pass, plenty of time/space, nice throw to Marvin Harrison for eight yards
  • Second and two—seven in the box, Manning reads run, no gain as it's stuffed at the line
  • Third and two—eight in the box, Manning reads pass, plenty of time/space, nice throw on slant to Anthony Gonzalez for first down, Al Michaels mentions that the Colts led the League in third down conversions
  • First and 10—eight in the box; Manning reads pass; a little pressure by SD; he chucks it away before anyone is within several yards of him; it's early, but I still think he gave up too easily on that play
  • Second and 10—false start on left tackle Tony Ugoh
  • Second and 15—seven in the box; Manning reads pass; plenty of time/space; he sends a beautiful, tight spiral deep to Marvin Harrison who is interfered with on the play; good call, bad rule results in a 30 yard gain for the Colts
  • First and 10—seven in the box, Manning reads run, goes almost nowhere, gain of two, Michaels mentions that this referee crew calls the most penalties in the NFL
  • Second and eight—seven in the box; Manning reads pass; plenty of time/space; goes deep to Reggie Wayne, who has his man beaten to the inside; Manning blows it by throwing to Wayne's outside shoulder; shoulda been a touchdown
  • Third and eight—seven in the box, which makes sense since it's an obvious passing down; Manning reads pass; plenty of time/space with a little pressure, but only after several seconds of standing in the pocket; good throw, but not perfect since it was a little high; that's a bad drop by Wayne as it woulda been a first down
  • Fourth and eight—punt is OK, but it goes into the end zone
SD's second possession—the Chargers start on their own 20 after the touchback, go three and out, and the second amazing punt of what is to become a phenomenal night for Scifres resets the battle of field possession. Another good series for the Indy D.

Indy's second possession—the Colts start around their own 20:
  • First and 10—false start on right side of Colt offensive line
  • First and 15—seven in the box, Manning reads pass, plenty of time/space, nice pass to Dallas Clark for four yards
  • Second and 11—eight in the box, Manning reads pass, plenty of time/space, nice pass to Gonzalez for six yards
  • Third and five—seven, almost eight in the box; Manning reads pass; nice throw on a quick screen/pick to Wayne for the first down
  • First and 10—seven in the box, Manning reads run, minimal gain of three yards, Michaels mentions only the Arizona Cardinals were worse than Indy rushing the ball
  • Second and seven—seven in the box, Manning reads pass, plenty of time/space, nice throw to Clark for a first down
  • First and 10—eight in the box; Manning reads pass; tons of time/space, he seriously stood in the pocket for five seconds before there was even slight pressure; perfect throw allows Gonzalez to turn it into a big, 36-yard gain; Michaels chucks the SD pass defense under the bus, only the Seattle Seahawks were worse
  • First and 10—eight in the box; Manning reads pass; again, tons of time/space, Peyton had at least four yards of space to work with; another spectacular throw, just perfectly thrown into a tiny window through double coverage; 17-yard gain to Gonzalez, ball's at the Charger two; even John Madden points out the protection
  • First and goal—goalline stand so everybody's at the line, Colts run right into it, gain of a yard
  • Second and goal—goalline stand so everybody's still at the line, Colts run right into it again, touchdown for the first points of the game
SD's third possession—Colts lead 7-0, Chargers start on their own 25, Darren Sproles makes his first appearance with an ominous gain on third and nine for a first down, and that's all San Diego gets as it's forced to punt yet again. Another good series for the Indy D. Unfortunately, Mike Scifres begins to take over the field position war, pinning the Colts at their own three right after the first quarter expires.

SECOND QUARTER

Indy's third possession—the Colts start at their own three, leading 7-0:
  • First and 10—eight in the box, Manning reads run, still no rushing attack as gain is only one yard
  • Second and nine—seven in the box; Manning reads pass; plenty of time/space despite being backed up in his own endzone; nice throw to back-up tight end, who secures it after a momentary bobble; the slight flub hurt him, but that play still wasn't getting much
  • Third and six—seven in the box since it's another obvious passing down; Manning reads pass; a little pressure this time, but Manning still coulda held it a tad longer; instead, he unloads it before any real danger and the play comes up a hair short of the first down; with a split-second longer, Gonzalez probably gets the first down
  • Fourth and one—delay of game penalty pushes Indy even deeper into its own endzone
  • Fourth and six—good punt, but good return by Sproles gets into Indy territory
SD's fourth possession—the Chargers still trail by seven, they start with a short field (Indy's 44), Antonio Gates breaks a couple tackles for a big gain while playing on one leg, LaDainian Tomlinson makes his cursory appearance while scoring an easy TD, and Indy suffers its first poor series on defense. Of course, it didn't help that they only had half a field with which to work. The game's tied at seven.

Indy's fourth possession—Indy starts on their own 33 after Nate Kaeding slips on the kickoff:
  • First and 10—eight in the box; Manning reads pass; good time/space considering it was a blitz, but the protection does break down; Peyton makes an amazing throw under duress, with a guy in his face; he puts it over a defender, who's in excellent coverage, to a spot where only Gonzalez can catch it for a first down
  • First and 10—seven in the box; Manning reads run, but Shaun Phillips comes off the left end to blow the play up; Phillips literally came off the line simultaneously with the snap, he either guessed perfectly or SD is reading something from the Colts; I TiVo'd it in slo-mo and Phillips actually move before the snap, but so instantaneously that it's impossible to tell in real-time
  • Second and nine—eight in the box, but SD drops a guy out after Manning calls the play; Manning reads pass, but now faces a seven-man front; again, tons of time/space; nice little dump off to Joseph Addai for eight yards; Michaels and Madden share a hearty laugh about Manning's hair (I take a vomit break)
  • Third and one—eight in the box, Manning reads run, weird end-around to Clark for nine yards and a first down
  • First and 10—seven in the box; Manning reads pass; again, Peyton wusses out at the first sign of pressure; initial protection is good, but it starts to leak; nobody's within five yards of him, yet he just throws it away; there was pressure coming, don't get me wrong, but he didn't have to get rid of it; he coulda given the play another second, given something a chance to develop, and taken a hit; he didn't, but we do get a shot of him fussing with his "long" hair
  • Second and 10—eight in the box, but SD drops a guy out again after Manning's called the play; Peyton reads pass except he's only got seven in the box again; plenty of time/space; nice throw, but it's dropped by Gonzalez
  • Third and 10—seven in the box since it's another obvious passing down; Manning reads pass; good time/space again, but it does break down; he makes another very nice throw to Clark with guys in his face, but it's short of a first down
  • Fourth and five—Adam Vinatieri makes a 43-yard field goal to put the Colts ahead by three, 10-7; we go to commercial with a shot of Peyton Manning on the bench; he looks very exasperated and/or frustrated, very much NOT like a great leader
SD's fifth possession—the Chargers now face a 10-7 deficit, they start at their own 29, Dwight Freeney announces himself with a sack on second and nine, SD goes three and out, and another absurd punt by Scifres hems the Colts in at their own seven. The Indianapolis defense has now turned the Chargers away without points on four of five possessions. Very good.

Indy's fifth possession—the Colts still lead 10-7 while, once again, starting near their own endzone:
  • First and 10—eight in the box, Manning reads run, minimal gain of three
  • Second and seven—seven in the box; Manning reads pass; plenty of time/space; makes a nice, but dangerous throw that is tipped; Wayne juggles it while going out of bounds so it's ruled incomplete on the field; Tony Dungy makes a bad challenge (said this while I was watching it for the first time) because there is nothing even close to conclusive in the replay; sure enough, the call stands and the Colts lose one of their challenges
  • Third and seven—eight in the box until Stephen Cooper checks the defense into something else, only seven in the box now, Manning's already read pass, play gets a yard, it really looks like the San Diego defense is reading Peyton Manning
  • Fourth and six—bad punt gives the Chargers another short field; SD will start at Indy's 45 after another three and out by Manning's offense, deep in its own territory
SD's sixth possession—the Chargers still trail 10-7, they're already inside Indy's field, Madden points out that SD feels it has a read on Manning (he calls the play late so the Charger D isn't showing until the play clock gets under 10 seconds, which gives them a chance to both surprise the Colts and deke Peyton with false fronts), Sproles begins to run wild, Chris Chambers makes a sketchy catch that Dungy can't challenge because of his prior bad decision (nothing's certain, but it looks like he woulda won that challenge), big third down conversion, and Sproles finishes the drive by running over Antoine Bethea for the TD. The second poor defensive series for Indianapolis coincides with the second short field handed to San Diego.

Indy's sixth possession—the Colts now trail 14-10 and start on their own 20 after a fumble is correctly overturned:
  • First and 10—seven in the box as SD switches to the prevent with only 33 seconds remaining, Manning reads pass, plenty of time/space, brutal throw that shoulda been picked off, Peyton gets insanely lucky because the second half is winding down and SD woulda already been in position for points, that ball was right in the defender's hands
  • Second and 10—seven in the box, Manning reads run, modest gain of three, SD takes a timeout to try to get the ball back
  • Third and seven—seven in the box, Manning reads run, 10-yard gain for a first down
  • Couple more snaps, but they're irrelevant since they come with less than 15 seconds left
THIRD QUARTER

Indy's seventh possession
—still trailing 14-10, the Colts start on their own 27:
  • First and 10—eight in the box, Manning reads pass, plenty of time/space, very nice throw to Wayne for 31 yards
  • First and 10—eight in the box, Manning reads run, still nothing
  • Second and eight—eight in the box, Manning reads pass, plenty of time/space, nice pass to Addai for seven yards
  • Third and one—eight in the box, almost nine; Manning reads run; it's stuffed
  • Fourth and one—Colts go for it, which makes sense since it's short yardage and the field goal would be a tad too long; eight in the box; Manning reads pass, puts it in his own hand; Chargers bite on the play action as Manning rolls to the opposite side; again, Peyton Manning chumps out rather than take a hit; instead of planting and squaring his shoulders for a strong throw (which woulda necessitated taking a good hit), he tries to throw in full flight and the throw is predictably weak (but Peyton escapes unscathed); SD breaks up the floater while Clark looked to be more open
  • San Diego takes over on downs as we go to and return from commercials with more shots of Peyton Manning throwing a tantrum on the sideline—slapping his thighs, slamming pictures around, and generally looking upset (NOT like a great leader)
SD's seventh possession—the Bolts start on their own 33 with a four point lead (14-10), Rivers shows Manning how a man plays quarterback, he stands resolutely in the pocket while linemen swat at him, delivers a strike on third and seven, gets the big first down despite pass interference, more money running from Sproles, Rivers gets rocked on third and two while trying to give his options a chance to develop, but the pass falls incomplete because he couldn't get anything on the throw. Another dazzling punt from Scifres sticks Indy inside their own 10. Indy's D turns in another stellar series.

Indy's eighth possession—the Colts start on their own nine, facing a 14-10 deficit:
  • First and 10—seven in the box, Manning reads pass, great throw into a small window on a quick slant, had to be perfect and it was
  • Second and one—seven in the box, Manning reads run, five yard gain and a first down
  • First and 10—seven in the box, Manning reads pass, plenty of time/space, goes deep to Wayne, nice pass, nice coverage, incomplete and Peyton took a decent lick
  • Second and 10—Manning draws the Chargers offsides
  • Second and five—seven in the box, Manning reads pass, nice pass, nice coverage, incomplete
  • Third and five—this is the biggie, SD tries to substitute and Manning does his thing; great awareness, intellect, recognition, and touch on the pass; Wayne catches it and does the rest, 67-yard TD
SD's eighth possession—the Bolts now trail by three, 17-14; they start at their own 20 after a touchback; another embarrassing (if you're Manning) effort by Rivers; he keeps the play alive with his feet, delivers a HUGE throw while on the move/under pressure, and gets the first down on a longish (six yards) third down; Sproles runs even wilder as Indy D starts wilting; Rivers again shows the difference between wisely scrubbing a play when there's nothing doing and playing like you should wear a skirt to/from the game; Rivers pirouettes and throws a laser for first and goal, what a drive for Phillip; oops, Sproles fumbles into the endzone and SD can't recover; another Charger drive ends without points (plus a touchback) so that makes six fantastic defensive stands out of eight series for the Indianapolis defense.

Indy's ninth possession—the Colts still lead by three and start at their own 20:
  • First and 10—eight in the box except SD drops a guy at the last minute, Manning reads pass, plenty of time/space, nice throw for a small gain
  • Second and six—eight in the box, Manning reads pass, plenty of time/space, nice throw, dropped by the receiver and defensive back
  • Third and six—seven in the box since it's an obvious passing down; Manning reads pass; plenty of time/space; absolutely horrendous pass on huge third down, the Charger DB reads Peyton like a book and drops an easy interception; that ball hit him square in the hands, good lord; Michaels points out San Diego just got an enormous three and out, despite making the least of them in the NFL this year; ol' Al delivers one last kick to the Colts, informing the audience their offense suffered the fewest such humiliations in '08
  • Fourth and six—great punt, better return by Sproles, good field position for San Diego
FOURTH QUARTER

SD's ninth possession
—to be perfectly accurate, this drive starts at the Charger 44 with less than a minute to go in the third; Sproles continues to take over the game and the broadcast crew is beginning to realize it; Freeney gets large sack to start the fourth; Rivers runs for 12 yards on third and 13, there's no need to rehash because we all saw it; Rivers sneaks for the first down on fourth and one; oops, Phillip airs out an obscenity of a pass into the endzone where Bethea picks him off; that makes seven of nine possessions where San Diego took the collar. Great defense has preserved the 17-14 Indy lead.

Indy's tenth possession—the Horseshoes start on their own 21 after a personal foul during the INT return, it bears mentioning we see shots of Rivers and he neither looks frustrated nor is he moping:
  • First and 10—seven in the box, Manning reads pass, tripping penalty negates big gain
  • First and 20—seven in the box, Manning reads pass, quick screen, nice throw for a small gain
  • Second and 16—seven in the box, Manning reads pass, plenty of time/space, nice throw for a first down
  • First and 10—seven in the box, Manning reads run, gain of four yards
  • Second and six—seven in the box, Manning reads pass, plenty of time/space, nice pass to Clark for first down
  • First and 10—seven in the box, Manning reads run, gain of five yards
  • Second and five—seven in the box, Manning reads pass, plenty of time/space, nice throw for a small gain
  • Third and two—seven in the box, Manning reads run, three yard gain for the first down
  • First and 10—eight in the box, Manning reads pass, plenty of time/space, weird throw from Manning is dropped by Gonzalez
  • Second and 10—seven in the box, Manning reads pass, standard Peyton bail-out at the first sign of trouble (although that one was pretty kosher), doesn't matter because of an obvious holding penalty against Ugoh
  • Second and 20—seven in the box, Manning reads run, nothing doing
  • Third and 21—seven in the box, Manning reads pass, ugly play, protection breaks down, pass incomplete, and offensive holding
  • Fourth and 21—another short punt, but no return
SD's tenth possession—the Chargers start from their own 29 yard line, trailing 17-14; Sproles runs like a guy who just fumbled at the goalline; Rivers makes an awful decision and throw, but is saved by an Indy defender who can't catch; and Mathis records another sack on third and 10 to force yet another Scifres punt (which may have been a bad idea in retrospect). The Indianapolis Colt defense has now kept the San Diego Chargers off the scoreboard on eight of 10 drives.

From here on, everyone knows what happened.

Peyton Manning and his Colts got the ball back with two minutes 40 seconds left in the fourth quarter and a three point lead. His defense had turned away the opponent on 80 percent of its offensive drives and surrendered 14 points in 57 minutes of football. Of course, the drive started from his own three yard line.

Regardless, Peyton couldn't lead his team to a single first down. Instead, the Indy offense, which led the NFL in third down conversions and suffered the fewest three and outs in 2008, failed on third down and went three and out. The San Diego defense, which had registered the fewest three and outs in the NFL for 2008, got one when it was most crucial.

San Diego got the ball back on the Indy 38, used up the clock, and tied the game on a field goal.

The Chargers won the coin toss, the Colt defense self-destructed with brutal (and obvious) penalties, and Kaeding won the game in overtime with another field goal.

But looking over the entire game...play-by-play...three times, the following are beyond debate:

1. The Indianapolis defense did its job and then some. It have up 23 points in 12 possessions, surrending points on only four of them. It got turnovers in the red zone, got sacks, and forced punts.

2. Peyton Manning was far from perfect and his stats lie like a dog. There were several just inexcusably horrific throws—the blown TD to Wayne, the non-pick at the end of the second quarter, and the non-pick at the end of the third quarter. There were several huge three and outs deep in his own territory that devestated the defense since it gave SD short fields with which to work. Most of all, there were all the premature throwaways—early they make sense, but the guy finished a playoff game he LOST with barely a grass stain.

You're gonna have to take some hits, probably some rugged ones, to win in the playoffs.

3. The Indianapolis Colt offensive line was jaw-dropping as far as pass protection. If you argue this, you are simply wrong. Really, really, really wrong. Manning had loads of time and almost 10 feet of space virtually every single time he dropped back to pass. He made several very nice throws under duress, but he spent most of the game safely on an island of green in the middle of a sea of helmets and pads.

4. Peyton Manning must share some of the blame for the lack of a running game. For one thing, he kept calling runs into eight-man fronts while passing into seven-man fronts. Since he calls his own plays, that's definitely on him. All the more so because the Colts had decent success running the ball against the lesser front (four or five yard runs are successes). For another, the Charger linebackers seemed to be reading something from him—the defensive check-downs were almost always perfect and they were coming off the snap in big downs with inhuman quickness.

Finally, as John Madden pointed out early, San Diego felt like it had a read on Manning and was clearly waiting to show its defensive alignment. Peyton, the great football mind, never seemed to adjust.

He just kept it business as normal, even calling passes against the lighter scheme despite having a lead late in the game.

5. Everything was most certainly not against Peyton Manning. The penalties were blatant, not a single one was even questionable. The game was in San Diego because it was a division winner; there's nothing unfair about that. The Chargers were most certainly not the more dangerous team—they had been inedpt against third downs all year while Indy had been ferocious, San Diego defenders dropped more interceptions, the Colt D stifled the Charger offense, Gates and LT were severely banged up while the Peyton Manning was healthy and the NFL MVP.

There it is.

Peyton Manning played alright, but he did not play well. He did not play to his stats and he most certainly did not play like an all-time great in the playoffs.

The blame is not his alone—those penalties were outrageous, his receivers dropped some balls, the running game wasn't very good, Dungy made some odd choices, etc.

However, enough of the blame rightly belongs on his drooping shoulders (seriously, his body language is abysmal and proves his lack of greatness to me more than anything) because he is supposed to be one of the greatest. Because he calls his plays and Indianapolis is built around him. Because that loss in San Diego is on his offense.

Because he was outplayed by Phillip Rivers, stifled by a heretofore weak defense, and throttled by a punter.

Only Peyton Manning and Brett Favre have three MVPs in our version of the NFL. Funny how I wouldn't want either one in a game where my life—literally or figuratively—was on the line.

And Saturday's game is a perfect example why.

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