Whoops, I guess this is the danger of writing for public consumption—you run the risk of looking like an utter jackass. Even when you think you're taking the necessary precautions, every now and then, risk yanks your card.
Today is apparently 'every now and then.'
I've been making a rather large fuss over how thin I think the third base position is heading into the 2009 fantasy baseball season. Thankfully, I had the good sense to modify my stance to top heavy rather than thin otherwise I'd be twice the fool. However, the fact remains I thought third base would be the biggest problem area in the new season.
What I neglected to do was take a gander at all the positions.
Said gander would've revealed the real problem spot in the infield can be found in the hole between second and third. On a lot of teams—fantasy and true blue—"hole" is a literal term...
THE SHORTSTOPS
Okay, having taken care of the dirty work and served myself a generous portion of my own size 12 Adidas, let's recompose ourselves. Although I have badly overestimated the depth at short, it still doesn't really change my overall draft strategy—I'm still most concerned about second base and the hot corner.
Ironically, the incredible paucity of top tier talent at shortstop makes drafting there relatively simply.
If you have a top pick, use it on one of the trio of elite shortstops. Otherwise, sit on the spot and try to grab a bargain later on in the draft. There truly are only three locks at the position so, unless you can grab one of those three, you'll be in largely the same boat as the majority of your league.
Granted, the second tier captains of the infield stand a far better chance of being able to compete on a weekly basis with the triumvirate at the top. However, they all have glaring weaknesses that really should've bumped them down a notch.
That's right—I'm saying there might not even be a true second tier of Major League Baseball shortstops. See what you think:
FIRST TIER
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins—126 runs, 33 HRs, 67 RBI, 35 SBs, .301 average
Albert Pujols and David Wright—those are the only two stallions I'd consider taking of Ramirez having reassessed the infield depth (i.e. take Miguel Cabrera off the board). Considering Boston's first choice at short in 2009 was Jed Lowrie, can you imagine if they'd kept this guy?
Josh Beckett's working out and offense is never gonna be a team like the Red Sox' problem, but a 25-year-old shortstop with slick leather who contributes in every facet on offense doesn't exactly come around every year. Or every 10 years.
Take another look at those numbers and then mix in the next couple sentences. A sore shoulder slowed Hanley in '08 and he was leading off for the Fish. The guy basically kept the Marlins in the middle of the pack as far as run production.
With Cameron Maybin in camp and hitting decently well so far, there's a good chance Maybin leads of and shifts Hanley to the three hole. That would probably take a bit out of his runs scored, but you'd see a far more dramatic inflation of his RBI total.
His theft total did drop from 50+ to 35, but he's still young and his speed is truly scary. Figure 35 is the floor.
2. Jose Reyes, New York Mets—113 runs, 16 HRs, 68 RBI, 56 SBs, .297 average
Whoo doggy, the National League East should be called San Pedro De Macoris.
Reyes is another phenomenal talent at the position with a proven track record at the tender age of 25 (26 in June). He lacks the natural power of Hanley Ramirez, but I said Ramirez' speed is scary—well Jose's speed is inhuman.
The guy can pick 'em up and put 'em down. Flat out. That eye-popping number in the swipes category actually represents a decline of 22 steals from 2007. So, yeah, 65-70 SBs isn't unrealistic from Reyes.
Of course, even 50+ may be missing the mark if he does drop down (a la Ramirez) to the three spot. I think I'd probably put David Wright there since the No. 3 hitter is usually the team's best one, but a sane person can't really argue with Reyes.
And that would mean Jose Reyes would be hitting (presumably) directly in front of Mr. Wright. Hello Mr. Fastball—an increased daily intake of the straighties could be exactly what Jose needs to push that homer total closer to 25 or even 30. The drop in order should also do wonders for his RBI total in the loaded Met lineup.
Even if it's Carlos Beltran (which would be really odd since it would put Wright second or fifth), that's still some nice protection.
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies—76 runs, 11 HRs, 59 RBI, 47 SBs, .277 average
We're about to see that precipitous drop and, coincidentally, this is the last NL East SS on the list.
Rollins was the 2007 NL Most Valuable Player, but he's looking up at two guys from his own division. That's messed up and the only way I can spin the situation.
J-Roll just has the misfortune of playing in a division with the three best shorts in the game, being the oldest of the trio (at 30), and coming off a season that went a bit off-track following an April ankle injury never to really rediscover the rails.
For the 2009 season, I see that as good news.
Jimmy's a bad man—he did not forget how to hit so you can expect a rebound to his '07 glory. Probably not quite that high, but plan on substantially more power as well as the counting stats that go with it. His speed and average should hover right in the '08 levels with possibly a modest step forward in average.
I'm expecting a big year from Ryan Howard and Chase Utley as well so Rollins would probably see a bump in numbers even if his own performance didn't change from last year.
SECOND TIER
4. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox—65 runs, 21 HRs, 77 RBI, 13 SBs, .290 average
Weeee! Did you feel that in your stomach? If you did, what you felt was going from three top 10 fantasy producers to...Alexei Ramirez.
I'm not trying to slam Alexei—in honesty, that sort of production in his first 480 Major League at-bats makes me think he could be joining the Big Three before 2010. But contemplate for a second how reliable and how insanely productive Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins are.
While Alexei Ramirez may end up being every bit as productive, he's got ONE SEASON in the bank.
We're dropping from three of the most proven, high-end commodities in the fantasy game to some johnny with less than a full year's experience. Anyway, I covered Alexei more in-depth with the second basemen.
5. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks—91 runs, 21 HRs, 67 RBI, 3 SBs, .291 average
Again, another talented youngster with a ton of potential. At 26, the younger Drew is a safe wager to build on a very impressive 2008 campaign. Of course, at 26, there's a chance he could regress substantially.
Drew exploded in '08—he raised his batting average almost 60 points and almost doubled his home run output—so there's no guarantee he's cleared the hurdle and his arrival is permanent.
Like Alexei Ramirez, he could eventually be a top tier SS, but he doesn't have the speed of the other guys (or at least he doesn't show it) so he seems destined to have an annual view of their spikes.
And he ain't even close yet.
6. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies—48 runs, 8 HRs, 46 RBI, 1 SB, .263 average
Forget the 2008 numbers—he missed basically the entire year with a torn quad and torn up hand. Tulo gets the benefit of the doubt and the No. 6 spot because of his 2007 seasons and the way he finished '08.
When he finally did get on the field to stay, Troy began to find that power stroke that had so many fantasy owners reluctant to give up on him. At only 24, this is another shortstop who could be elite...eventually.
But, like the others, he isn't there yet and, considering the talent at the top, it's a stretch to call Tulowitzki a level below guys like Hanley, Reyes, and Rollins.
Furthermore, like all the Rockies, the loss of Matt Holliday could do substantial damage to Troy's numbers.
7. J.J. Hardy, Milwaukee Brewers—78 runs, 24 HRs, 74 RBI, 2 SBs, .283 average
Those look like solid second tier numbers next to the triple play atop the positional rankings, right? So what am I getting so excited about? After all Hardy is only 26 (27 in August) so there's plenty of room for him to grow as well.
That's all true and, actually, I was surprised to see his average that high. But J.J. is way too streaky for my tastes. He's one of those guys who seems like Albert Pujols for a couple weeks and then turns into Randy Johnson except without the pitching arsenal.
When a guy spends large runs of the MLB season hitting like my younger sister, I have a hard time endorsing him here.
But 24 dingers from your middle infielder and an average making eyes at .300 demands it.
8. Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians—104 runs, 23 HRs, 89 RBI, 3 SBs, .276 average
Ladies and gentlemen, meet your third highest ranked shortstop from 2008. Peralta actually outperformed Jimmy Rollins, finishing 76th to Rollins' 88th.
Twelve spots—that's what Jhonny's best year as a pro was worth compared to an obviously down year for Rollins. You want insult to injury? Peralta's 27 in May, finished 30+ spots ahead of Derek Jeter, and Jeter's off the board (on average) 20 spots before him in most Yahoo drafts.
I'm not gonna go that far, but I'm still not convinced this is the norm for Peralta.
It's basically his third such season in his last four, but 2006 was a serious stinker. Too much of one to ignore completely—even after two very healthy campaigns.
With that nagging at the back of my mind and the odds favoring a break-out season from the youth above, I can't jump Jhonny any higher.
THIRD TIER
9. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers—34 runs, 5 HRs, 16 RBI, 8 SBs, .357 average
Furcal is going (on average) with the 57th pick in Yahoo drafts. Most fans know he only had 143 ABs, don't they? He's not gonna hit .357 for a full year—hombre's got a single .300 season in his whole seven-year career.
And he's not gonna see a full year. Furcal is papier-mache—he'll give you good average, power, and speed while he's on the field. Fortunately, that hasn't been too often since he came over to the Bums.
10. Mike Aviles, Kansas City Royals—68 runs, 10 HRs, 51 RBI, 8 SBs, .325 average
In case you haven't picked up on the subtle signs, I prefer youth and potential to superstars on the fade. That get Aviles over the more trusted (and overrated) names below.
I covered him a bit under the second basemen, but he's 28 and only saw 410 ABs in '08 (his first year in the Bigs). Figure a full year with a hefty reservoir of experience/confidence should allow Aviles to replicate those numbers—I'd guess with a bit more power and a little less average.
11. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees—88 runs, 11 HRs, 69 RBI, 11 SBs, .300 average
Yankee fans, start your engines. Seriously though, how can you take Jeter over anyone previously mentioned? Most of them have outperformed the pinstriped captain and they're all younger. Most of 'em are a lot younger than Derek, who will be 35 in June.
I've always loved the guy. Derek Jeter is definitely one of my favorite non-San Francisco Giants of my lifetime—he's always played the game the right way and carried himself with class off the field.
But nobody stays young and beautiful forever. Not even Jeter.
12. Michael Young, Texas Rangers—102 runs, 12 HRs, 82 RBI, 10 SBs, .284 average
It's safe to say that, at 32, Young is deteriorating. His average dipped below .300 for the first time since 2002 and for the first time ever when registering over 600 ABs.
The runs will probably stay up there because of the Rangers' potency, but expect the rest to continue to erode. If Young struggles with the position change to third base, he might carry it with him into the batter's box and that would probably hasten his demise.
13. Miguel Tejada, Houston Astros—92 runs, 13 HRs, 66 RBI, 7 SBs, .283 average
Tejada will be 35 in May, his name popped up in the performance-enhancing drug witch hunt, and he's been in steady (and kinda rapid) decline. These are all signs that indicate the wheels are about to come off Tejada's wobbling wagon.
It might not happen in '09, but why bet against Mother Nature?
Fliers—Yunel Escobar (Atlanta Braves), Jerry Hairston Jr. (Cincinnati Reds), Khalil Greene (St. Louis Cardinals), Ryan Theriot (Chicago Cubs), Clint Barmes (Rockies), Orlando Cabrera (Oakland Athletics)
I could essentially list every single shortstop in the league under fliers, so I just picked some the sexiest ones. The truth is, most of the guys outside the 13 mentioned in some detail have ownership levels fluctuating between 20 and 60 percent.
When 40 percent of Yahoo leagues don't even consider a player worthy of ownership, suffice it to say the potential for contribution isn't great.
Still, a guy like Escobar had a very promising start to his young career and then failed to deliver on the promise when handed the starting gig in '08. At 26, there's a ray of hope.
Greene put up terrible numbers for the San Diego Padres in '08, but he goes to a real professional lineup in '09 so he gets a shout-out.
Theriot plays in a live yard with a potent lineup and Barmes plays in a livelier yard with a less potent lineup. Both give you additional flexibility up the middle.
After that, throw a dart.
And it probably won't matter because, unless you can get one of the three royals, you're gonna be swinging a limp noodle like the rest of your league.
Next up...the outfielders.
Monday, March 23, 2009
Through the Wardrobe—A Fantasty Look at the Third Basemen
I've been saying all along that third base is incredibly thin heading into the 2009 fantasy season. Upon closer inspection, maybe thin isn't exactly the right description. Extremely top heavy would be a better choice because there is a decent amount of depth at the very top.
In fairness, some of them won't actually play the hot corner. However, they're legit for fantasy purposes...
THE THIRD BASEMEN
Again, I've been hinting all along that third base is the most important position as far as I'm concerned. When you see the roster of players, you'll understand why—it's got six or seven guys who are absolute monsters and perform like clockwork.
The rest are a bunch of guys who could tank your entire team depending on where you draft them. It's not a knock on their talent because the talent is thick top to bottom. The issue is that, outside the top couple of tiers, there are red flags popping up left and right.
And they're enormous.
But mine is obviously not the only way to skin the third base cat. If you're a gambler, then this is your position because guys are going all over the place. Melvin Mora was a top 10 third baseman in 2008 and, on average, he's being taken with the 238th pick in Yahoo drafts. Meanwhile, Garret Atkins is going ahead of Chipper Jones.
And Alex Rodriguez has belly-flopped into the third round of most drafts. Holy lord:
FIRST TIER
1. David Wright, New York Mets—115 runs, 33 HRs, 124 RBI, 15 SBs, .302 average
This is another guy I'd consider taking with the top draft pick overall.
Wright is a true five category contributor because he has plus everything—plate discipline, power, and speed. He's not gonna dominate the swipes column like he once did because he's become too important to the Mets to imperil regularly on the basepaths, but he'll contribute there on a regular basis while doing the same with his average.
The real bonanza comes in a one-two of power and consistency.
Wright will get you 30+ bombs, 100+ runs, and 100+ RBI every year he sees 150 games. Write that in ink—better yet, etch it in stone. Considering my man is only 26 and is the definition of old school, David's usually a good bet to see 160 games a year if history is to be trusted—it's gonna take something serious to keep him off the diamond.
He's a walking defensive gem, he seems to thrive under the microscope in the Big Apple, he hits in a formidable lineup, he's gotten better each year so far, and he's still in the beginning stages of that period in a player's career where experience/maturity catches up with his talent (and he enters another tier of excellence).
I don't see a downside.
2. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers—85 runs, 37 HRs, 127 RBI, 1 SB, .292 average
This is the second time we've seen Cabrera in the second spot for a position. Nipping at the heels of Albert Pujols and David Wright should tell you all you need to know.
You can see more effusive praise of Miguel with the first basemen, but I'll add he's essentially David Wright sans the defensive prowess (irrelevant), speed (very relevant), and probably with some extra power.
It would take quite a bit of a jump in the other stats to make up for the edge Wright has in stolen bases, but Cabrera's got the talent to hop over Gotham's favorite son.
3. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees—104 runs, 35 HRs, 103 RBI, 18 SBs, .302 average
Look, I don't like the guy and you probably don't like him—we all have very good reason.
But A-Rod in the third round? Jesus, what are these people blazing and where can I get my hands on it?
Yes, he's rehabbing from hip surgery. Yes, that is cause for concern. Yes, he's struggled to perform under the most intense spotlight in Major League Baseball (playoffs in New York). Yes, his entire regular season could closely approximate that pressure due to the performance-enhancing drug fallout.
The injury doesn't worry me too much. First, who's to say it was really that serious anyway. I say there's a decent chance it was something he could've played with, but decided to get fixed up as a convenient way to duck out of the spotlight for a bit.
Second, those 2008 numbers came in 138 games. If the need for surgery wasn't as urgent as we think and he's already rehabbing, Rodriguez should be totally healthy for at least that many in 2009.
As for the scrutiny, if a veritable lock for top 10 fantasy production is available in the second round, I'll take my chances. Even on a douche bag like A-Rod.
4. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays—67 runs, 27 HRs, 85 RBI, 7 SBs, .272 average
Um...those are the numbers from the first 448 at-bats of Longoria's Big League career and they came when the kid was 22. He also suffered a fractured wrist in the middle. Chew on that for a bit.
Longo's now 23 and up with the big club for the entirety. Having shown no ill-effects of the break after he came back last year, there's no reason to think it will suddenly become a problem now. Furthermore, it wasn't a muscle injury so there's no indication the guy is a danger to go down frequently.
The news that B.J. Upton will miss some time after Opening Day hurts a bit, but Longoria should still see some extra statistical opportunities with the entire Rays' roster brimming with World Series confidence.
The only reason he has to look up at A-Rod is because he's so damn young. At this point, he could regress for two years, explode at 25 and still become a player the likes of which we've never seen—he has that much time and potential.
But I like potential. I think this kid is (gasp) an eventual upgrade over David Wright. Probably not in 2009, but sooner rather than later.
5. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox—91 runs, 29 HRs, 115 RBI, 3 SBs, .312 average
This is another repeat offender, having already popped up with Miguel Cabrera with the first sackers. Again, check there for more info on Youk.
But I will say he makes the first tier at the hot corner despite the injury and despite being a second tier first baseman because the high-end talent is better at first. It's great at third as well, but there's more of it at first so Youkilis gets the promotion.
I'll also point out the injury is probably a non-issue at this point. Achilles' tendinitis isn't gonna go away over the course of 162 games, but his game isn't really predicated on speed and the bite should hurt his swing too much.
SECOND TIER
6. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs—97 runs, 27 HRs, 111 RBI, 2 SBs, .289 average
Can you feel us picking up speed? You should because we're getting close to the precipitous drop and the slope's getting steeper.
For whatever reason, I had Ram-Ram last year and wasn't impressed. I don't know what to make of that because his numbers were basically consistent with what I should've expected—they just never seemed to help very much.
Even so, those are good enough to get this big dawg into the first tier except he'll turn 31 in June. Aramis is still in his prime, but he's got his boarding pass and he's in line for departure.
That bumps him into the lead-off spot of the second tier because, while his numbers might mimic some of those above, I don't expect them to get better. Frankly, more of the same would be A-OK.
7. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves—82 runs, 22 HRs, 75 RBI, 4 SBs, .364 average
Larry Wayne is an odd case—he'll be 37 in April, but he seems to be aging like Barry Bonds.
His normalized production (per at-bat) is off the charts considering those numbers were amassed in only 128 games/439 ABs. Not only that, it's trending better as Chipper piles on the years.
However, Jones hasn't played anything close to a full slate of games since 2003—he's almost certain to miss 30+ games again in 2009. I'd say utterly certain since he's already got an oblique problem going in Spring Training. Those do tend to nag.
The fates are against him hitting .364 again, but Chipper will always hit for high average so something around .320 seems reasonable. With an improved lineup and the possibility of a large seasons from certain teammates (Kelly Johnson, Jeff Francoeur, Yunel Escobar), Jones shouldn't have too much trouble replicating the rest of his '08 tally.
8. Aubrey Huff, Baltimore Orioles—96 runs, 32 HRs, 108 RBI, 4 SBs, .304 average
Well, there was the first big drop.
In truth, Huff probably should be the start of the third tier for most of the reasons mentioned in the first base column. Yep, Aubrey's our third crossover from that position and the weakest of the bunch so I'll be even briefer.
I'll simply add that Huff apparently associates his return to former glory with a mechanical change in his swing. If that's true, maybe Huff does belong here.
9. Chris Davis, Texas Rangers—51 runs, 17 HRs, 55 RBI, 1 SB, .285 average
The young Ranger marks the fourth crossover from first. He jumps a tier when viewed in the third base context because, as mentioned, it's a weaker context.
Therefore, the extrapolation required to compare Davis against his contemporaries doesn't hurt him. He registered those totals in 295 ABs so doubling them gets you in the neighborhood of a full year's production.
Obviously, that assumes he can maintain his productivity for twice as long. That's no small feat in the Texas heat, but it's not impossible or even far-fetched for a talented kid like Davis.
If he can slap together 100+/30+/100+ with a .280 average and keep his hot corner eligibility (the least likely)? At the age of 23? You'd have quite the pair with Davis and Longoria.
THIRD TIER
10. Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies—86 runs, 21 HRs, 99 RBI, 1 SB, .286 average
Now we're in free-fall so it seems appropriate to start with Atkins. Yet another guy who can also slot in at first, but the least exciting of the bunch because his numbers have been in steady decline.
At 29, there doesn't seem to be much reason to think Atkins will reverse the trend suddenly. Worse, his struggles with right-handed pitching are getting more pronounced, his road splits have always suggested a Coors hitter, Matt Holliday is a memory, and a spring hip injury has become a spring hip/groin injury.
Run away and do it fast.
11. Melvin Mora, Baltimore Orioles—77 runs, 23 HRs, 104 RBI, 3 SBs, .285 average
As I mentioned, Mora was a top 100 fantasy producer last year and he's being taken in the very late rounds (early 20s). That seems weird to me because, while his numbers spiked a bit in '08, it's not like they erupted through the roof.
In fact, Mora's '08 campaign is almost identical to those of '04 and '05. In the interest of full disclosure, there was a modest dip in '06 and '07, but I don't see why that's dropping Melvin so low.
He's got a hamstring issue at the moment, but it doesn't sound serious and Baltimore's lineup may surprise some people. He looks like a good bargain to me if you are in trouble at third.
12. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals—51 runs, 14 HRs, 51 RBI, 1 SB, .283 average
Zimmerman is 24 and coming of a season during which he lost about 60 games to injury. Big things were expected from the Nats' corner infielder after he whomped 44 taters in his first two full MLB seasons, but a shoulder tear threw a wrench in the works.
Of course, Ryan looked just dandy after coming back from the ding, but there are still some big question marks on this youngster. He might pick up where he left off or he could be starting from scratch.
13. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals—72 runs, 16 HRs, 59 RBI, 9 SBs, .260 average
We're in a patch where sheer potential has arrested the rate of descent a bit. The problem, as most fans know, with Gordon is that the 25-year-old has taunted MLB with his raw ability for several years now.
Some of the bloom has come off the rose so expectations/attention have been dialed back a bit. Perhaps this is the year the dude snaps it together with a click and becomes the fury his combination of speed and power promises.
14. Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks—87 runs, 28 HRs, 97 RBI, 11 SBs, .239 average
Reynolds will be 26 in August so there's still hope he may cut back on his whiff rate, but the glimmer dies quickly because there's no indication of any effort to that end. In other words, the average is probably about where it will end most years.
But we're in the third tier of players and Mark offers power and increasing speed (he's running in Spring Training as well) at a discounted rate. Plus, there is still a lot of upside left to realize. You could do much worse if you've waited this long to fill the hot grab a guy like Reynolds.
15. Jorge Cantu, Florida Marlins—92 runs, 29 HRs, 95 RBI, 6 SBs, .277 average
I have no idea what to make of these last two guys.
Cantu is only 27 and put up an almost identical season in 2005. On the other hand, '06 and '07 were brutal—if you draft based on '08 and get a year like '06/'07, you're in deep water with cement shoes.
And yet, if Jorge can keep raking to that '08 diddy, his numbers should be even better due to a quietly (and possibly) vicious lineup in Florida.
17. Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds—75 runs, 26 HRs, 68 RBI, 1 SB, .251 average
Another total mystery to me. He's 26 and has talent spilling from his ears, but he's regressed as much as progressed in recent years. First, it was a bump in average with a drop in power and increase in Ks.
Last year, it was a bump in power, but a decrease in average and virtually no thefts along with another increase in fans. As part of a promising young lineup, 2009 could see Edwin become the top 10 fantasy third baseman scouts predicted.
Or he could take another step forward while taking two back. Sounds like third tier to me.
Fliers—Mike Lowell (Red Sox), Mark DeRosa (Cleveland Indians), Russell Martin (Los Angeles Dodgers), Adrian Beltre (Seattle Mariners), Troy Glaus (St. Louis Cardinals), Ty Wigginton (Orioles), Pablo Sandoval (San Francisco Giants), Matt Gamel (Milwaukee Brewers)
Ugh, those fliers don't even rate much mention.
Lowell is probably the best bet because he works in one of the best offenses in baseball. But he's 35, has a history of health issues, and is coming off major offseason surgery. Yikes.
DeRosa's versatile, but you better have a lot of power elsewhere if he's manning the hot corner. Beltre's in a contract year so there's that. Martin's a catcher with third base eligibility—you want it the other way around (like Sandoval, but he's unproven).
Gamel is the big name in the Brewer system, but few rookies arrive a la Ryan Braun and Evan Longoria.
Like I said, your options get unappealing early and quickly at the hot corner. Plan accordingly.
Next up...the shortstops.
In fairness, some of them won't actually play the hot corner. However, they're legit for fantasy purposes...
THE THIRD BASEMEN
Again, I've been hinting all along that third base is the most important position as far as I'm concerned. When you see the roster of players, you'll understand why—it's got six or seven guys who are absolute monsters and perform like clockwork.
The rest are a bunch of guys who could tank your entire team depending on where you draft them. It's not a knock on their talent because the talent is thick top to bottom. The issue is that, outside the top couple of tiers, there are red flags popping up left and right.
And they're enormous.
But mine is obviously not the only way to skin the third base cat. If you're a gambler, then this is your position because guys are going all over the place. Melvin Mora was a top 10 third baseman in 2008 and, on average, he's being taken with the 238th pick in Yahoo drafts. Meanwhile, Garret Atkins is going ahead of Chipper Jones.
And Alex Rodriguez has belly-flopped into the third round of most drafts. Holy lord:
FIRST TIER
1. David Wright, New York Mets—115 runs, 33 HRs, 124 RBI, 15 SBs, .302 average
This is another guy I'd consider taking with the top draft pick overall.
Wright is a true five category contributor because he has plus everything—plate discipline, power, and speed. He's not gonna dominate the swipes column like he once did because he's become too important to the Mets to imperil regularly on the basepaths, but he'll contribute there on a regular basis while doing the same with his average.
The real bonanza comes in a one-two of power and consistency.
Wright will get you 30+ bombs, 100+ runs, and 100+ RBI every year he sees 150 games. Write that in ink—better yet, etch it in stone. Considering my man is only 26 and is the definition of old school, David's usually a good bet to see 160 games a year if history is to be trusted—it's gonna take something serious to keep him off the diamond.
He's a walking defensive gem, he seems to thrive under the microscope in the Big Apple, he hits in a formidable lineup, he's gotten better each year so far, and he's still in the beginning stages of that period in a player's career where experience/maturity catches up with his talent (and he enters another tier of excellence).
I don't see a downside.
2. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers—85 runs, 37 HRs, 127 RBI, 1 SB, .292 average
This is the second time we've seen Cabrera in the second spot for a position. Nipping at the heels of Albert Pujols and David Wright should tell you all you need to know.
You can see more effusive praise of Miguel with the first basemen, but I'll add he's essentially David Wright sans the defensive prowess (irrelevant), speed (very relevant), and probably with some extra power.
It would take quite a bit of a jump in the other stats to make up for the edge Wright has in stolen bases, but Cabrera's got the talent to hop over Gotham's favorite son.
3. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees—104 runs, 35 HRs, 103 RBI, 18 SBs, .302 average
Look, I don't like the guy and you probably don't like him—we all have very good reason.
But A-Rod in the third round? Jesus, what are these people blazing and where can I get my hands on it?
Yes, he's rehabbing from hip surgery. Yes, that is cause for concern. Yes, he's struggled to perform under the most intense spotlight in Major League Baseball (playoffs in New York). Yes, his entire regular season could closely approximate that pressure due to the performance-enhancing drug fallout.
The injury doesn't worry me too much. First, who's to say it was really that serious anyway. I say there's a decent chance it was something he could've played with, but decided to get fixed up as a convenient way to duck out of the spotlight for a bit.
Second, those 2008 numbers came in 138 games. If the need for surgery wasn't as urgent as we think and he's already rehabbing, Rodriguez should be totally healthy for at least that many in 2009.
As for the scrutiny, if a veritable lock for top 10 fantasy production is available in the second round, I'll take my chances. Even on a douche bag like A-Rod.
4. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays—67 runs, 27 HRs, 85 RBI, 7 SBs, .272 average
Um...those are the numbers from the first 448 at-bats of Longoria's Big League career and they came when the kid was 22. He also suffered a fractured wrist in the middle. Chew on that for a bit.
Longo's now 23 and up with the big club for the entirety. Having shown no ill-effects of the break after he came back last year, there's no reason to think it will suddenly become a problem now. Furthermore, it wasn't a muscle injury so there's no indication the guy is a danger to go down frequently.
The news that B.J. Upton will miss some time after Opening Day hurts a bit, but Longoria should still see some extra statistical opportunities with the entire Rays' roster brimming with World Series confidence.
The only reason he has to look up at A-Rod is because he's so damn young. At this point, he could regress for two years, explode at 25 and still become a player the likes of which we've never seen—he has that much time and potential.
But I like potential. I think this kid is (gasp) an eventual upgrade over David Wright. Probably not in 2009, but sooner rather than later.
5. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox—91 runs, 29 HRs, 115 RBI, 3 SBs, .312 average
This is another repeat offender, having already popped up with Miguel Cabrera with the first sackers. Again, check there for more info on Youk.
But I will say he makes the first tier at the hot corner despite the injury and despite being a second tier first baseman because the high-end talent is better at first. It's great at third as well, but there's more of it at first so Youkilis gets the promotion.
I'll also point out the injury is probably a non-issue at this point. Achilles' tendinitis isn't gonna go away over the course of 162 games, but his game isn't really predicated on speed and the bite should hurt his swing too much.
SECOND TIER
6. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs—97 runs, 27 HRs, 111 RBI, 2 SBs, .289 average
Can you feel us picking up speed? You should because we're getting close to the precipitous drop and the slope's getting steeper.
For whatever reason, I had Ram-Ram last year and wasn't impressed. I don't know what to make of that because his numbers were basically consistent with what I should've expected—they just never seemed to help very much.
Even so, those are good enough to get this big dawg into the first tier except he'll turn 31 in June. Aramis is still in his prime, but he's got his boarding pass and he's in line for departure.
That bumps him into the lead-off spot of the second tier because, while his numbers might mimic some of those above, I don't expect them to get better. Frankly, more of the same would be A-OK.
7. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves—82 runs, 22 HRs, 75 RBI, 4 SBs, .364 average
Larry Wayne is an odd case—he'll be 37 in April, but he seems to be aging like Barry Bonds.
His normalized production (per at-bat) is off the charts considering those numbers were amassed in only 128 games/439 ABs. Not only that, it's trending better as Chipper piles on the years.
However, Jones hasn't played anything close to a full slate of games since 2003—he's almost certain to miss 30+ games again in 2009. I'd say utterly certain since he's already got an oblique problem going in Spring Training. Those do tend to nag.
The fates are against him hitting .364 again, but Chipper will always hit for high average so something around .320 seems reasonable. With an improved lineup and the possibility of a large seasons from certain teammates (Kelly Johnson, Jeff Francoeur, Yunel Escobar), Jones shouldn't have too much trouble replicating the rest of his '08 tally.
8. Aubrey Huff, Baltimore Orioles—96 runs, 32 HRs, 108 RBI, 4 SBs, .304 average
Well, there was the first big drop.
In truth, Huff probably should be the start of the third tier for most of the reasons mentioned in the first base column. Yep, Aubrey's our third crossover from that position and the weakest of the bunch so I'll be even briefer.
I'll simply add that Huff apparently associates his return to former glory with a mechanical change in his swing. If that's true, maybe Huff does belong here.
9. Chris Davis, Texas Rangers—51 runs, 17 HRs, 55 RBI, 1 SB, .285 average
The young Ranger marks the fourth crossover from first. He jumps a tier when viewed in the third base context because, as mentioned, it's a weaker context.
Therefore, the extrapolation required to compare Davis against his contemporaries doesn't hurt him. He registered those totals in 295 ABs so doubling them gets you in the neighborhood of a full year's production.
Obviously, that assumes he can maintain his productivity for twice as long. That's no small feat in the Texas heat, but it's not impossible or even far-fetched for a talented kid like Davis.
If he can slap together 100+/30+/100+ with a .280 average and keep his hot corner eligibility (the least likely)? At the age of 23? You'd have quite the pair with Davis and Longoria.
THIRD TIER
10. Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies—86 runs, 21 HRs, 99 RBI, 1 SB, .286 average
Now we're in free-fall so it seems appropriate to start with Atkins. Yet another guy who can also slot in at first, but the least exciting of the bunch because his numbers have been in steady decline.
At 29, there doesn't seem to be much reason to think Atkins will reverse the trend suddenly. Worse, his struggles with right-handed pitching are getting more pronounced, his road splits have always suggested a Coors hitter, Matt Holliday is a memory, and a spring hip injury has become a spring hip/groin injury.
Run away and do it fast.
11. Melvin Mora, Baltimore Orioles—77 runs, 23 HRs, 104 RBI, 3 SBs, .285 average
As I mentioned, Mora was a top 100 fantasy producer last year and he's being taken in the very late rounds (early 20s). That seems weird to me because, while his numbers spiked a bit in '08, it's not like they erupted through the roof.
In fact, Mora's '08 campaign is almost identical to those of '04 and '05. In the interest of full disclosure, there was a modest dip in '06 and '07, but I don't see why that's dropping Melvin so low.
He's got a hamstring issue at the moment, but it doesn't sound serious and Baltimore's lineup may surprise some people. He looks like a good bargain to me if you are in trouble at third.
12. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals—51 runs, 14 HRs, 51 RBI, 1 SB, .283 average
Zimmerman is 24 and coming of a season during which he lost about 60 games to injury. Big things were expected from the Nats' corner infielder after he whomped 44 taters in his first two full MLB seasons, but a shoulder tear threw a wrench in the works.
Of course, Ryan looked just dandy after coming back from the ding, but there are still some big question marks on this youngster. He might pick up where he left off or he could be starting from scratch.
13. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals—72 runs, 16 HRs, 59 RBI, 9 SBs, .260 average
We're in a patch where sheer potential has arrested the rate of descent a bit. The problem, as most fans know, with Gordon is that the 25-year-old has taunted MLB with his raw ability for several years now.
Some of the bloom has come off the rose so expectations/attention have been dialed back a bit. Perhaps this is the year the dude snaps it together with a click and becomes the fury his combination of speed and power promises.
14. Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks—87 runs, 28 HRs, 97 RBI, 11 SBs, .239 average
Reynolds will be 26 in August so there's still hope he may cut back on his whiff rate, but the glimmer dies quickly because there's no indication of any effort to that end. In other words, the average is probably about where it will end most years.
But we're in the third tier of players and Mark offers power and increasing speed (he's running in Spring Training as well) at a discounted rate. Plus, there is still a lot of upside left to realize. You could do much worse if you've waited this long to fill the hot grab a guy like Reynolds.
15. Jorge Cantu, Florida Marlins—92 runs, 29 HRs, 95 RBI, 6 SBs, .277 average
I have no idea what to make of these last two guys.
Cantu is only 27 and put up an almost identical season in 2005. On the other hand, '06 and '07 were brutal—if you draft based on '08 and get a year like '06/'07, you're in deep water with cement shoes.
And yet, if Jorge can keep raking to that '08 diddy, his numbers should be even better due to a quietly (and possibly) vicious lineup in Florida.
17. Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds—75 runs, 26 HRs, 68 RBI, 1 SB, .251 average
Another total mystery to me. He's 26 and has talent spilling from his ears, but he's regressed as much as progressed in recent years. First, it was a bump in average with a drop in power and increase in Ks.
Last year, it was a bump in power, but a decrease in average and virtually no thefts along with another increase in fans. As part of a promising young lineup, 2009 could see Edwin become the top 10 fantasy third baseman scouts predicted.
Or he could take another step forward while taking two back. Sounds like third tier to me.
Fliers—Mike Lowell (Red Sox), Mark DeRosa (Cleveland Indians), Russell Martin (Los Angeles Dodgers), Adrian Beltre (Seattle Mariners), Troy Glaus (St. Louis Cardinals), Ty Wigginton (Orioles), Pablo Sandoval (San Francisco Giants), Matt Gamel (Milwaukee Brewers)
Ugh, those fliers don't even rate much mention.
Lowell is probably the best bet because he works in one of the best offenses in baseball. But he's 35, has a history of health issues, and is coming off major offseason surgery. Yikes.
DeRosa's versatile, but you better have a lot of power elsewhere if he's manning the hot corner. Beltre's in a contract year so there's that. Martin's a catcher with third base eligibility—you want it the other way around (like Sandoval, but he's unproven).
Gamel is the big name in the Brewer system, but few rookies arrive a la Ryan Braun and Evan Longoria.
Like I said, your options get unappealing early and quickly at the hot corner. Plan accordingly.
Next up...the shortstops.
Through the Wardrobe—A Fantasty Look at the Second Basemen
The general consensus around fantasy circles is that second base is a deep position. To a degree, I understand the sentiment—the top tiers of players is crowded with guys who stuff the stat sheet to the gills. However, when you look at the overall draftable players, the position is almost as thin as the catchers...
THE SECOND BASEMEN
For me, this position is a probably the second most important behind third base. I say that because, while there are a lot of names in those top tiers, the drop off afterward is significant. The combination makes the keystone an important place to have elite talent.
If you wait until later rounds to grab a guy who looks nice because he hits .300, you're gonna be running through a cheese grater for a good deal of the season because of that depth of high-end talent. Most of the league will have a guy filling the second base slot capable of that average as well as solid peripherals.
However, it's also a position that offers some flexibility if you take the rotisserie approach. Since a guy like Placido Polanco or Orlando Hudson falls so far, second base is a nice spot to pair with a corner outfielder or first baseman (i.e. a position where you can get power late while sacrificing average).
If you take Polanco and melt his numbers with, say, Adam Dunns, you've got yourself a damn fine composite player. Granted, it took two roster spots to make him.
With that in mind, here are the second basemen:
FIRST TIER 1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies—113 runs, 33 HRs, 104 RBI, 14 SBs, .292 average
Chase is dropping into the second round of a lot of Yahoo drafts. That's a mistake and a pretty big one.
It's understandable because offseason hip surgery is no laughing matter; in fact, it sounds like something for senior citizens so it should give you reason for pause when a 30-year-old pro athlete goes under the knife for it.
Trust me, Utley's gonna be 100 percent and wheels up on Opening Day.
And there's the flip side to that offseason surgery—it means his 2008 numbers were collected under the duress of injury serious enough to require said knife-undergoing.
If you figure on a healthy season and a modest boost from the improved consistency of Raul Ibanez plus a steadier year from Jimmy Rollins, I'm betting you'll see similar power numbers with some extra points on the average and a nice flurry of additional peripherals.
That would put Utley right back in the top 10 fantasy players where he belongs.
2. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers—102 runs, 18 HRs, 71 RBI, 26 SBs, .319 average
Kinsler is the guy who's getting the love that's been shed from the Utley bandwagon. He's been the first second baseman off the board in most drafts. And for good reason.
At only 26 (27 in June), he is Utley's heir-apparent in more ways than just age. Although he probably lacks the raw power of Chase, he plays in a livelier home yard (Ballpark at Arlington) and in a more potent lineup. Considering the Phils' lineup is not exactly weak, that's saying something.
But it's true with the likes of Josh Hamilton, Chris Davis, Michael Young, Nelson Cruz, possibly Hank Blalock, and the potential at catcher.
Then there's the matter of speed—Kinsler's got it for days and is fond of flashing it. That style of play may be what's kept him from completing a full slate of games so far in his young career or it could just be a freak injury thing.
Either way, this is a talent entering his prime with speed to mitigate any prolonged slump. There's a good chance his power numbers will jump this season as he matures into the window where the supremely gifted make leaps forward in performance.
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox—118 runs, 17 HRs, 83 RBI, 20 SBs, .326 average
Pedroia, turning 26 in August, is even younger than Kinsler. Entering his third full season as a Sox' regular, he's coming off a jump in numbers from 2007 to 2008 that netted him the American League MVP.
The only reason he doesn't rate higher is because he's a dwarf.
If he adds any more power numbers to the astounding tallies he put up last year, I'm gonna have to rethink my faith in the principles of physics. That the dude hit 17 homers is incredible considering he's probably barely 5'6" and 170 pounds.
Of course, studs like Pedroia have made a lifetime of proving people wrong so take his apparent physical limitations with a grain of salt.
And also consider that the same laws of experience and maturity apply to Dustin as apply to anyone else. Those promise there's improvement to be had—I just don't see where he adds it other than the power numbers.
Then again, 162 games worth of Jason Bay, a healthier David Ortiz, ditto Mike Lowell, and improvement from Jacoby Ellsbury should get him better pitches, more RBI spots, and push him across the plate more.
It's just tough to believe those totals are going higher.
4. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds—80 runs, 21 HRs, 78 RBI, 23 SBs, .261 average
Phillips might be a tad high here except he lost about 100 at-bats to injury at the end of the year. Despite the missed time, he still registered another 20/20 season.
Furthermore, Brandon will be 28 in June and that puts him right on the cusp of his prime. Either he is what he's been for the last several years—a guy who's gonna hit around .280 while being a legit 30 homer threat if he can get 600+ ABs and a reliable 20/20 guy when he sees 500+.
Or he squeezes that last bit out of his potential and throws up a 30/30/.300 grand prize.
Considering the developing players around him (Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Edwin Encarnacion) and the intimate confines of his home digs, I say the grand prize is a decent bet for the Reds' excellent middle infielder.
Even if Phillips puts up a 2009 buffet a la last year's, that'll beat most of his counterparts.
5. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles—107 runs, 9 HRs, 57 RBI, 40 SBs, .296 average
Roberts gets knocked down to No. 5 through no fault of his own—it's simply a matter of age (31) and his lineup (the weakest of the bunch).
Put this consummate table-setter in a more productive offense and his value spikes considerably. That's an important thing to keep in mind because Brian is unsigned after 2009 and probably won't re-up with the Os before the trade deadline i.e. he's gonna be popular in the trade winds and possibly moved to a more potent contender.
Even if he sticks in Baltimore all year, his 2008 numbers are almost exactly what you'll get four or five years. The fact he's playing for a contract might spur him on to even greater heights.
Anyone who saw Roberts homer off Daisuke Matsuzaka in the World Baseball Classic can see he's got considerable power and he's on base all the time. There's more than enough power in that bat to double that tater total. And if you can get 40 swipes, you can probably get 60.
It's just a matter of motivation and the open market can be one hell of a motivator.
SECOND TIER
6. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins—97 runs, 32 HRs, 92 RBI, 5 SBs, .260 average
Uggla's another guy whose fantasy value greatly outpaces his real-world equivalent. This hombre's not gonna give you much in the speed or average departments, and he whiffs at an incredible pace. At 29, the hopes for an improvement in any area are dwindling since he's right at the peak of his prime and the trends seem to indicate quite the opposite.
But those 32 big flies and related peripherals are so gaudy, they almost break down the door to the first tier. Forget that he plays in a pitchers' park for the moment—those numbers are right up there with the best in the bigs at the position (Utley).
And Dangerous Dan, like Roberts, is a superb candidate to be moved by the trade deadline since the money-starved Fish are always looking to cash in on their high-profile talent.
7. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox—65 runs, 21 HRs, 77 RBI, 13 SBs, .290 average
The Cuban Missile worries me a bit because everyone's on his jock—five tool production this, 27-year-old developing quickly that, etc. I never like it when the adoring eyes of a the MLB word fixate on one guy, especially if he's young-ish, since the results rarely seem to be favorable.
Of course, it'd would be unwise to ignore such a gifted athlete for such a paranoid reason. Clearly, the rave reviews are justified—in his first year of Major League Baseball, Alexei splashed that line up in only 480 ABs (at least 100 less than most of his competitors). Tack an additional 100 ABs on and the results will really get your pulse up.
If Ramirez can fight back the attention, expectation, and complacency, the comfort and experience that should accompany the resounding vote of confidence should make Alexei a good candidate to join the elite of the elite.
Lastly, he's eligible in the outfield and at shortstop so he gives you some nice middle infield flexibility.
8. Jose Lopez, Seattle Mariners—80 runs, 17 HRs, 89 RBI, 6 SBs, .297 average
It's funny how some guys sink down draft boards, regardless of performance, just because of the uniform they were. Lopez is a perfect example of being totally underrated because he plays in Seattle.
Senor Lopez finished '08 as the 97th rated fantasy player in Yahoo, his '08 season was remarkably similar to his '06 campaign so it didn't come out of the blue, and he's only 25 years old. Not only that, the Ms have some nice young talents that could make their offense surprisingly below-average this year (instead of God-awful).
Yet he's falling to the 172nd pick in the average draft. That makes Jose Lopez a Super-Saver.
9. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees—70 runs, 14 HRs, 72 RBI, 2 SBs, .271 average
Cano, like every Bomber, gets the benefit of the ultimate fantasy net—the Yankee lineup. Even in a hugely disappointing '08, the Dominican dandy named for Jackie Robinson scratched together a pretty decent year. At a tender 26 (we can trust his age, right?), there's absolutely no reason to believe last year was anything more than a bump in the road to stardom.
After all, his fan total actually went down last year and the pinstriped lineup is even more fearsome this year, especially after the return of the starting third baseman (can't remember his name at the moment). And, remember, his 2008 performance is probably as bad as it's gonna get from Cano.
If that's the bottom and considering how high the ceiling is, Cano is looking like a great bargain in the later rounds.
10. Chone Figgins, Anaheim Angels—72 runs, 1 HR, 22 RBI, 34 SBs, .276 average
Figgins slides in ahead of his Angel teammate because of his speed. Just like Kendrick below him, Chone has struggled with injuries the past two years and that's significantly more troubling since he's 31. Not only that, some of the damage has been done to his legs.
Take away Figgins speed and he becomes an average fantasy player, despite the eligibility at third base as well as second. He simply won't hit for power and, although he has a .330 season in the bank, that came in only 115 games and looks more like an anomaly these days.
Yet, a healthy Chone Figgins will hit around .280, score around 100 runs, and steal more than 40 bases—that makes him a player. You could do a lot worse.
11. Howie Kendrick, Anaheim Angels—43 runs, 3 HRs, 37 RBI, 11 SBs, .306 average
Players like Kendrick mentally break some fantasy owners—he put up those infuriatingly tantalizing stats in only 340 ABs, but he logged two stints on the disabled list for the second consecutive year. Personally, I don't like guys with a history of injuries because one of the surest ways to flounder is to waste picks on DL spots.
That said, Howie will be turning 26 in July so there's plenty left in the tank and all the more reason to believe he can get over the injury bug. Furthermore, it's beyond doubt at this point that my man can rake Major League pitching.
He won't give you much power, but Kendrick will contributed with some swipes and production in two of the three major areas keeps you out of the bottom tiers.
THIRD TIER
11. Mark DeRosa, Cleveland Indians—103 runs, 21 HRs, 87 RBI, 6 SBs, .285 average
DeRosa's eligibility at third and in the OF keeps him above the rest of the third tier despite the expected dip in productivity. Moving from the potent Chicago Cubbies to the less-heralded Tribe is hurting Mark's pre-draft stock as is the extra real estate of Jacobs Field
But I'm already on record as saying I like the Indians and expect big things from the club. Additionally, let's not forget it was a large year in the AL (with Texas) that propelled DeRosa to the fat Chicago contract in the first place.
12. Mike Aviles, Kansas City Royals—68 runs, 10 HRs, 51 RBI, 8 SBs, .325 average
Aviles is a guy to watch because, with a bigger sample size, he would've jumped into the second tier. Those numbers are exceedingly impressive, but he only saw 418 ABs and that's the entirety of his MLB experience.
He's also eligible at SS so he, like Alexei Ramirez, allows for some mixing and matching down the road should the unfortunate happen. If he can maintain those numbers for a full year, this will be his only one spent in the third tier.
13. Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves—86 runs, 12 HRs, 69 RBI, 11 SBs, .287 average
Brave fans take their guys seriously so I expect to get some flak for this, but Johnson just doesn't seem to be progressing like a 27-year-old is expected to. Granted, Johnson only has two full years in the Bigs and that's gotten other players slack.
Furthermore, young players can often take on the feel of the team because of their more fragile egos and Johnson's '08 very similarly mimicked Atlanta's overall season. He remains a guy to watch because he still reeks of ability, but with less optimism in my opinion.
To thoroughly cloud the issue, I'd pick Johnson as the guy most likely to break through behind Aviles (who I like very much).
14. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers—89 runs, 14 HRs, 46 RBI, 19 SBs, .234 average
This could be the dumbest placement by the time '09 is in the books. Weeks has plus ability in all five offensive areas, is only 26, and has spent the better part of four years in the Show. The only problem is a breakout has been expected for the past three years.
None has come yet. But 2009 could very well be the year after a brutal '08 that forced the Brew Crew to grab Ray Durham as insurance. The move seemed to light a spark under Weeks and, if the spark survived until the offseason, Rickie might've finally put in the work necessary to explode.
15. Kazuo Matsui, Houston Astros—58 runs, 6 HRs, 33 RBI, 20 SBs, .293 average
Man, second basemen sure do get nicked up a lot. Matsui saw less than 100 games last year and still managed to post some fine totals, particularly in the thefts and average departments.
But his is a guy who's suffered so many injuries, that missing time in '08 with anal fissures seemed about right for Kaz. And typing the phrase 'anal fissures' is about as close to them as I want to get so I'll pass on the Astros' Matsui.
16. Placido Polanco, Detroit Tigers—90 runs, 8 HRs, 58 RBI, 7 SBs, .307 average
If you plan on using Polanco or a rough equivalent, you better include a guy like Adam Dunn or Mike Jacobs in the works because Placido will give you a .300 average for sure. And, in the Tiger lineup, he's way better than even money to flirt with 100 runs scored.
But that's it. There will be an accidental longball here and there, maybe a swipe when some chucker forgets about him on occasion, and that's it. Draft him for average or not at all.
17. Orlando Hudson, Los Angeles Dodgers—54 runs, 8 HRs, 41 RBI, 4 SBs, .305 average
O-Dog is the poor man's Placido Polanco, which means you should almost never have to draft him as Polanco should be available. Hudson plays in a weaker lineup, a bigger ballpark, and isn't as reliable as the guy above him to hit .300.
Furthermore, he's coming off wrist injury and he doesn't seem interested in running too much anymore. He makes the list by the hair of his chinny-chin-chin. Or one of Manny's dreadlocks.
Fliers—Jerry Hairston Jr. (Reds), Ian Stewart (Colorado Rockies), Aaron Hill (Toronto Blue Jays), Clint Barmes (Rockies), Akinori Iwamura (Tampa Bay Rays), Mark Ellis (Oakland Athletics), Felipe Lopez (Arizona Diamondbacks), Freddie Sanchez (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Again, the fliers are a motley crew of young guys with huge upside and little history or older players who might still be good for one last year of glory.
My favorites on the list are the two Rockies (Steward and Barmes) because they have the obvious advantage of playing in Denver. That mile-high air sure seems to help break a slump.
Aaron Hill and Akinori Iwamura are also intriguing. Hill had one shiny little year in 2007 and spent '08 dinged up so there's a whisper of precedent there. Iwamura just seems like a winner and he's swinging in the middle of a possible juggernaut.
If you're hand is forced outside these fine fellows, you have my condolensces.
Next up...the third basemen.
THE SECOND BASEMEN
For me, this position is a probably the second most important behind third base. I say that because, while there are a lot of names in those top tiers, the drop off afterward is significant. The combination makes the keystone an important place to have elite talent.
If you wait until later rounds to grab a guy who looks nice because he hits .300, you're gonna be running through a cheese grater for a good deal of the season because of that depth of high-end talent. Most of the league will have a guy filling the second base slot capable of that average as well as solid peripherals.
However, it's also a position that offers some flexibility if you take the rotisserie approach. Since a guy like Placido Polanco or Orlando Hudson falls so far, second base is a nice spot to pair with a corner outfielder or first baseman (i.e. a position where you can get power late while sacrificing average).
If you take Polanco and melt his numbers with, say, Adam Dunns, you've got yourself a damn fine composite player. Granted, it took two roster spots to make him.
With that in mind, here are the second basemen:
FIRST TIER 1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies—113 runs, 33 HRs, 104 RBI, 14 SBs, .292 average
Chase is dropping into the second round of a lot of Yahoo drafts. That's a mistake and a pretty big one.
It's understandable because offseason hip surgery is no laughing matter; in fact, it sounds like something for senior citizens so it should give you reason for pause when a 30-year-old pro athlete goes under the knife for it.
Trust me, Utley's gonna be 100 percent and wheels up on Opening Day.
And there's the flip side to that offseason surgery—it means his 2008 numbers were collected under the duress of injury serious enough to require said knife-undergoing.
If you figure on a healthy season and a modest boost from the improved consistency of Raul Ibanez plus a steadier year from Jimmy Rollins, I'm betting you'll see similar power numbers with some extra points on the average and a nice flurry of additional peripherals.
That would put Utley right back in the top 10 fantasy players where he belongs.
2. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers—102 runs, 18 HRs, 71 RBI, 26 SBs, .319 average
Kinsler is the guy who's getting the love that's been shed from the Utley bandwagon. He's been the first second baseman off the board in most drafts. And for good reason.
At only 26 (27 in June), he is Utley's heir-apparent in more ways than just age. Although he probably lacks the raw power of Chase, he plays in a livelier home yard (Ballpark at Arlington) and in a more potent lineup. Considering the Phils' lineup is not exactly weak, that's saying something.
But it's true with the likes of Josh Hamilton, Chris Davis, Michael Young, Nelson Cruz, possibly Hank Blalock, and the potential at catcher.
Then there's the matter of speed—Kinsler's got it for days and is fond of flashing it. That style of play may be what's kept him from completing a full slate of games so far in his young career or it could just be a freak injury thing.
Either way, this is a talent entering his prime with speed to mitigate any prolonged slump. There's a good chance his power numbers will jump this season as he matures into the window where the supremely gifted make leaps forward in performance.
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox—118 runs, 17 HRs, 83 RBI, 20 SBs, .326 average
Pedroia, turning 26 in August, is even younger than Kinsler. Entering his third full season as a Sox' regular, he's coming off a jump in numbers from 2007 to 2008 that netted him the American League MVP.
The only reason he doesn't rate higher is because he's a dwarf.
If he adds any more power numbers to the astounding tallies he put up last year, I'm gonna have to rethink my faith in the principles of physics. That the dude hit 17 homers is incredible considering he's probably barely 5'6" and 170 pounds.
Of course, studs like Pedroia have made a lifetime of proving people wrong so take his apparent physical limitations with a grain of salt.
And also consider that the same laws of experience and maturity apply to Dustin as apply to anyone else. Those promise there's improvement to be had—I just don't see where he adds it other than the power numbers.
Then again, 162 games worth of Jason Bay, a healthier David Ortiz, ditto Mike Lowell, and improvement from Jacoby Ellsbury should get him better pitches, more RBI spots, and push him across the plate more.
It's just tough to believe those totals are going higher.
4. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds—80 runs, 21 HRs, 78 RBI, 23 SBs, .261 average
Phillips might be a tad high here except he lost about 100 at-bats to injury at the end of the year. Despite the missed time, he still registered another 20/20 season.
Furthermore, Brandon will be 28 in June and that puts him right on the cusp of his prime. Either he is what he's been for the last several years—a guy who's gonna hit around .280 while being a legit 30 homer threat if he can get 600+ ABs and a reliable 20/20 guy when he sees 500+.
Or he squeezes that last bit out of his potential and throws up a 30/30/.300 grand prize.
Considering the developing players around him (Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Edwin Encarnacion) and the intimate confines of his home digs, I say the grand prize is a decent bet for the Reds' excellent middle infielder.
Even if Phillips puts up a 2009 buffet a la last year's, that'll beat most of his counterparts.
5. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles—107 runs, 9 HRs, 57 RBI, 40 SBs, .296 average
Roberts gets knocked down to No. 5 through no fault of his own—it's simply a matter of age (31) and his lineup (the weakest of the bunch).
Put this consummate table-setter in a more productive offense and his value spikes considerably. That's an important thing to keep in mind because Brian is unsigned after 2009 and probably won't re-up with the Os before the trade deadline i.e. he's gonna be popular in the trade winds and possibly moved to a more potent contender.
Even if he sticks in Baltimore all year, his 2008 numbers are almost exactly what you'll get four or five years. The fact he's playing for a contract might spur him on to even greater heights.
Anyone who saw Roberts homer off Daisuke Matsuzaka in the World Baseball Classic can see he's got considerable power and he's on base all the time. There's more than enough power in that bat to double that tater total. And if you can get 40 swipes, you can probably get 60.
It's just a matter of motivation and the open market can be one hell of a motivator.
SECOND TIER
6. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins—97 runs, 32 HRs, 92 RBI, 5 SBs, .260 average
Uggla's another guy whose fantasy value greatly outpaces his real-world equivalent. This hombre's not gonna give you much in the speed or average departments, and he whiffs at an incredible pace. At 29, the hopes for an improvement in any area are dwindling since he's right at the peak of his prime and the trends seem to indicate quite the opposite.
But those 32 big flies and related peripherals are so gaudy, they almost break down the door to the first tier. Forget that he plays in a pitchers' park for the moment—those numbers are right up there with the best in the bigs at the position (Utley).
And Dangerous Dan, like Roberts, is a superb candidate to be moved by the trade deadline since the money-starved Fish are always looking to cash in on their high-profile talent.
7. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox—65 runs, 21 HRs, 77 RBI, 13 SBs, .290 average
The Cuban Missile worries me a bit because everyone's on his jock—five tool production this, 27-year-old developing quickly that, etc. I never like it when the adoring eyes of a the MLB word fixate on one guy, especially if he's young-ish, since the results rarely seem to be favorable.
Of course, it'd would be unwise to ignore such a gifted athlete for such a paranoid reason. Clearly, the rave reviews are justified—in his first year of Major League Baseball, Alexei splashed that line up in only 480 ABs (at least 100 less than most of his competitors). Tack an additional 100 ABs on and the results will really get your pulse up.
If Ramirez can fight back the attention, expectation, and complacency, the comfort and experience that should accompany the resounding vote of confidence should make Alexei a good candidate to join the elite of the elite.
Lastly, he's eligible in the outfield and at shortstop so he gives you some nice middle infield flexibility.
8. Jose Lopez, Seattle Mariners—80 runs, 17 HRs, 89 RBI, 6 SBs, .297 average
It's funny how some guys sink down draft boards, regardless of performance, just because of the uniform they were. Lopez is a perfect example of being totally underrated because he plays in Seattle.
Senor Lopez finished '08 as the 97th rated fantasy player in Yahoo, his '08 season was remarkably similar to his '06 campaign so it didn't come out of the blue, and he's only 25 years old. Not only that, the Ms have some nice young talents that could make their offense surprisingly below-average this year (instead of God-awful).
Yet he's falling to the 172nd pick in the average draft. That makes Jose Lopez a Super-Saver.
9. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees—70 runs, 14 HRs, 72 RBI, 2 SBs, .271 average
Cano, like every Bomber, gets the benefit of the ultimate fantasy net—the Yankee lineup. Even in a hugely disappointing '08, the Dominican dandy named for Jackie Robinson scratched together a pretty decent year. At a tender 26 (we can trust his age, right?), there's absolutely no reason to believe last year was anything more than a bump in the road to stardom.
After all, his fan total actually went down last year and the pinstriped lineup is even more fearsome this year, especially after the return of the starting third baseman (can't remember his name at the moment). And, remember, his 2008 performance is probably as bad as it's gonna get from Cano.
If that's the bottom and considering how high the ceiling is, Cano is looking like a great bargain in the later rounds.
10. Chone Figgins, Anaheim Angels—72 runs, 1 HR, 22 RBI, 34 SBs, .276 average
Figgins slides in ahead of his Angel teammate because of his speed. Just like Kendrick below him, Chone has struggled with injuries the past two years and that's significantly more troubling since he's 31. Not only that, some of the damage has been done to his legs.
Take away Figgins speed and he becomes an average fantasy player, despite the eligibility at third base as well as second. He simply won't hit for power and, although he has a .330 season in the bank, that came in only 115 games and looks more like an anomaly these days.
Yet, a healthy Chone Figgins will hit around .280, score around 100 runs, and steal more than 40 bases—that makes him a player. You could do a lot worse.
11. Howie Kendrick, Anaheim Angels—43 runs, 3 HRs, 37 RBI, 11 SBs, .306 average
Players like Kendrick mentally break some fantasy owners—he put up those infuriatingly tantalizing stats in only 340 ABs, but he logged two stints on the disabled list for the second consecutive year. Personally, I don't like guys with a history of injuries because one of the surest ways to flounder is to waste picks on DL spots.
That said, Howie will be turning 26 in July so there's plenty left in the tank and all the more reason to believe he can get over the injury bug. Furthermore, it's beyond doubt at this point that my man can rake Major League pitching.
He won't give you much power, but Kendrick will contributed with some swipes and production in two of the three major areas keeps you out of the bottom tiers.
THIRD TIER
11. Mark DeRosa, Cleveland Indians—103 runs, 21 HRs, 87 RBI, 6 SBs, .285 average
DeRosa's eligibility at third and in the OF keeps him above the rest of the third tier despite the expected dip in productivity. Moving from the potent Chicago Cubbies to the less-heralded Tribe is hurting Mark's pre-draft stock as is the extra real estate of Jacobs Field
But I'm already on record as saying I like the Indians and expect big things from the club. Additionally, let's not forget it was a large year in the AL (with Texas) that propelled DeRosa to the fat Chicago contract in the first place.
12. Mike Aviles, Kansas City Royals—68 runs, 10 HRs, 51 RBI, 8 SBs, .325 average
Aviles is a guy to watch because, with a bigger sample size, he would've jumped into the second tier. Those numbers are exceedingly impressive, but he only saw 418 ABs and that's the entirety of his MLB experience.
He's also eligible at SS so he, like Alexei Ramirez, allows for some mixing and matching down the road should the unfortunate happen. If he can maintain those numbers for a full year, this will be his only one spent in the third tier.
13. Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves—86 runs, 12 HRs, 69 RBI, 11 SBs, .287 average
Brave fans take their guys seriously so I expect to get some flak for this, but Johnson just doesn't seem to be progressing like a 27-year-old is expected to. Granted, Johnson only has two full years in the Bigs and that's gotten other players slack.
Furthermore, young players can often take on the feel of the team because of their more fragile egos and Johnson's '08 very similarly mimicked Atlanta's overall season. He remains a guy to watch because he still reeks of ability, but with less optimism in my opinion.
To thoroughly cloud the issue, I'd pick Johnson as the guy most likely to break through behind Aviles (who I like very much).
14. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers—89 runs, 14 HRs, 46 RBI, 19 SBs, .234 average
This could be the dumbest placement by the time '09 is in the books. Weeks has plus ability in all five offensive areas, is only 26, and has spent the better part of four years in the Show. The only problem is a breakout has been expected for the past three years.
None has come yet. But 2009 could very well be the year after a brutal '08 that forced the Brew Crew to grab Ray Durham as insurance. The move seemed to light a spark under Weeks and, if the spark survived until the offseason, Rickie might've finally put in the work necessary to explode.
15. Kazuo Matsui, Houston Astros—58 runs, 6 HRs, 33 RBI, 20 SBs, .293 average
Man, second basemen sure do get nicked up a lot. Matsui saw less than 100 games last year and still managed to post some fine totals, particularly in the thefts and average departments.
But his is a guy who's suffered so many injuries, that missing time in '08 with anal fissures seemed about right for Kaz. And typing the phrase 'anal fissures' is about as close to them as I want to get so I'll pass on the Astros' Matsui.
16. Placido Polanco, Detroit Tigers—90 runs, 8 HRs, 58 RBI, 7 SBs, .307 average
If you plan on using Polanco or a rough equivalent, you better include a guy like Adam Dunn or Mike Jacobs in the works because Placido will give you a .300 average for sure. And, in the Tiger lineup, he's way better than even money to flirt with 100 runs scored.
But that's it. There will be an accidental longball here and there, maybe a swipe when some chucker forgets about him on occasion, and that's it. Draft him for average or not at all.
17. Orlando Hudson, Los Angeles Dodgers—54 runs, 8 HRs, 41 RBI, 4 SBs, .305 average
O-Dog is the poor man's Placido Polanco, which means you should almost never have to draft him as Polanco should be available. Hudson plays in a weaker lineup, a bigger ballpark, and isn't as reliable as the guy above him to hit .300.
Furthermore, he's coming off wrist injury and he doesn't seem interested in running too much anymore. He makes the list by the hair of his chinny-chin-chin. Or one of Manny's dreadlocks.
Fliers—Jerry Hairston Jr. (Reds), Ian Stewart (Colorado Rockies), Aaron Hill (Toronto Blue Jays), Clint Barmes (Rockies), Akinori Iwamura (Tampa Bay Rays), Mark Ellis (Oakland Athletics), Felipe Lopez (Arizona Diamondbacks), Freddie Sanchez (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Again, the fliers are a motley crew of young guys with huge upside and little history or older players who might still be good for one last year of glory.
My favorites on the list are the two Rockies (Steward and Barmes) because they have the obvious advantage of playing in Denver. That mile-high air sure seems to help break a slump.
Aaron Hill and Akinori Iwamura are also intriguing. Hill had one shiny little year in 2007 and spent '08 dinged up so there's a whisper of precedent there. Iwamura just seems like a winner and he's swinging in the middle of a possible juggernaut.
If you're hand is forced outside these fine fellows, you have my condolensces.
Next up...the third basemen.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Through the Wardrobe—A Fantastic Look at the First Basemen
With the catchers out of the way, I started looking ahead at the rest of the positions from a fantasy perspective and one thing became immediately clear—there is no way in hell I can write as much analysis for every draftable player at each position as I did for the backstops.
None. I'd be writing until Major League Baseball's All-Star break.
Take, for instance, this article's focus—first basemen.
In 2008, 24 of the top 200 fantasy players (according to Yahoo) were either first basemen or will qualify at the spot in 2009. By comparison, only six players rocking the Tools of Ignorance boast the same credentials.
Kelly Shoppach is being taken, on average in Yahoo drafts, with the lowest pick of any catcher I wrote up (240th). If I extended the list out to that pick for the first sackers, it would be three times as long.
I don't want to write that and nobody wants to read it.
Instead, I'll be trying to give equal treatment to each tier from now on and the analysis will get substantially less-detailed after the first couple of tiers. That might sound lazy and, to some degree, it is.
However, it also makes a bit o' sense since tier three players and below are relatively unpredictable. Guys in those levels either were once elite and in decline or they're young and full of potential. Either set could easily be an albatross you're dropping after the first month or become a fantasy stalwart.
There's just no way to tell even with all the metrics and probabilistic analysis in the world, regardless of what some Bill-James-wannabe will tell you. There are just too many intangible variables to consider to make any predictions (that I've come across) more accurate than a 50/50 stab.
So, rather than give you a false sense of security by raving about some flier I'm fond of for some inane reason, I'll give you the quick pertinent facts as I see 'em and move on. Any fantasy player is just as qualified as I am to discover some late round gem.
After all, if you're taking someone with the 240th pick, that's the 20th round or later in most drafts. All bets are off in that twilight.
Having disposed of that little administrative matter, here's the next group...
THE FIRST BASEMEN
Not much needs to be said about the approach to these guys—draft 'em early and draft 'em often.
A lot of fantasy's biggest studs can be found under this heading and, since most leagues have at least one Utility spot in addition to all the standard positions, having a couple of these big sticks is usually a pretty good way to go.
Even if your league foregoes the extra spot, some of the guys have multi-positional eligibility. You can grab a guy like, say, Miguel Cabrera early and use him for his third base flexibilities while still nabbing another high-end first basemen a little bit later.
Thusly, you can use the talent depth at first to compensate for the shallow pool at third base.
One last caveat—first base is a power spot. Don't waste your energy trying to find that perfect guy who's gonna launch 30+ big flies while peppering to the tune of .300. Obviously, if you can lock him in, go for it.
But most fantasy teams will need power from this spot. There are lots of Punch-and-Judy hitters available in the late rounds and even via the wire after the draft. That's not usually true of legit power bats.
So don't worry about Ryan Howard's low batting average—you can grab an average/on-base percentage guy down the road to compensate for it if necessary.
On with it:
FIRST TIER
1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis, Cardinals—100 runs, 37 HRs, 116 RBI, 7 SBs, .357 average
Only seven steals? What a stiff.
In case this is your first fantasy go around, Pujols actually slid down a lot of draft boards in 2008 because of an elbow injury. In other words, those numbers could actually see a jump after offseason surgery to repair some sort of nerve problem.
Not to mention the breakout season had by Ryan Ludwick. Pujols should benefit from a more confident Ludwick as well as another year of experience on Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker, and the possible arrival (finally) of Colby Rasmus.
I don't know if Albert is actually the 29 years of age his profile lists, but he's clearly still in the prime of his career and feeling healthy (despite a Spring Training kick to the head) entering the 2009 campaign.
This hombre is so good, there isn't much fuss made over his last name rhyming with a part of animal anatomy. Considering how juvenile most MLB fans are (myself included), that might be the most profound endorsement of the man yet.
He's your No. 1 pick unless you happen to hate the Cardinals or believe the third base position is even thinner than the general consensus. Albert Pujols really should have a tier all to himself.
2. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers—85 runs, 37 HRs, 127 RBI, 1 SB, .292 average
There are several guys I'd consider taking if I had the first pick and Cabrera's one of 'em.
In Yahoo leagues, Miguel has third base eligibility as well and the hot corner was slim before Alex Rodriguez went down. Combine that with his production from 2008 and it makes him a candidate to be the first name off the board.
But Cabrera's intoxicating for another reason—he'll be 26 in April and '08 was his first year in the American League.
So he's in the window where supremely talented youngsters tend to make substantial leaps in production plus Cabrera's had a full year to get his Junior Circuit legs underneath him and his AL-eye honed.
If nothing else, you should see his average return to its more familiar .320 average. If that inevitability does come to pass, you should also get a complimentary boost in the peripherals.
Especially if Curtis Granderson has the year everyone expected him to have in '08. And Gary Sheffield returns from the dead.
3. Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees—102 runs, 33 HRs, 121 RBI, 2 SBs, .308 average
Those three words following Teixeira's name should terrify you.
His monster year got lost a bit in the shuffle between leagues last year, but good grief. And Tex did that in two lineups that didn't have the juice (on paper) that the Bombers have in 2009—some parts disappointed a bit in '08, but they're good bets to rebound nicely.
If guys like Robinson Cano and Jorge Posada do regain form, look out.
Teixeira will be 29 in April so he should be good for those 2008 numbers at a minimum. Since Mark is clearly one of MLB's most gifted splinters and he's not yet at the (supposed) peak of his career, there's a good chance his 2009 stats will be something new altogether for the Yankee first baseman.
The cherry on the sundae? He's already scorching over .400 in Spring Training.
4. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins—97 runs, 23 HRs, 129 RBI, 0 SBs, .300 average
How is it possible that Morneau will only be 28 in May? I had him in his early 30s.
The other question would be how in the world does he put those stats up in the Twins' lineup? Aside from Joe Mauer, there's almost nothing there.
That actually changes a bit in 2009 with the addition of Joe Crede (assuming he can stay on the field) and another year of experience on some talented newbies (Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, Denard Span, etc.). Still, that lineup isn't gonna make anyone's hair go gray except maybe Ron Gardenhire's.
Of course, Morneau should scare the socks off any opposing pitcher.
The guy is a mashing machine. Last season saw a bit of a drop in his homer total, but he compensated by bloating both his RBI and average. And it gets better.
Morneau had offseason laser eye surgery to improve his vision. It might sound stupid, but one thing Barry Bonds always made a fuss over was how well he could see the ball. If Justin's spotting the ball out of the hurler's hand better, get some new socks.
5. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies—105 runs, 48 HRs, 146 RBI, 1 SB, .251 average
The BIG fella is the lone exception to my general rule of reserving the top tier for guys who contribute in every category except maybe speed or power.
I'm not as enamored of the long-ball as a lot of fans, but 48 homers are 48 homers—I don't care how you slice it...in fantasy. In real-life, two years of 199 strikeouts is a deal-breaker as is the .251 average. All the more so because Howard needed a scalding September just to raise his average to those lofty heights.
But, as I said in the introduction to this series, fantasy value is a much different animal than real value.
So Ryan squeezes his big posterior into the first tier as the preeminent power threat in baseball, who is also a good candidate for a bounce-back year in average due to his 29 years and the ridiculous lineup amongst which he sits.
Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, and even Pedro Feliz should benefit from the confidence boost they'll soon wear on their fingers. Oh, and playing in a veritable band box never hurts the ol' sluggers.
SECOND TIER
6. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox—91 runs, 29 HRs, 115 RBI, 3 SBs, .312 average
You'll quickly see that most of the second tier guys fall under the category of "would be in the first tier, but [fill in the blank]." For Youk, it's the injury bug although he's already been cleared to go on Monday and I have it from serious people that the Greek God of Walks is better when he's leaking oil.
If that's the case, Youkilis really should be up above because he's also eligible at third base plus he's a newly minted 30-year-old, which means he's in his prime. Toss that in with a cancer-free clubhouse (has Manny responded to that?), a full year of Jason Bay, growth from Jacoby Ellsbury (25), ditto Dustin Pedroia (26 in August), and a return from the brink by either David Ortiz or Mike Lowell.
The result should make him a lock to repeat his stellar '08 performance, maybe even surpass it. Still, there is that injury...
7. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres—103 runs, 36 HRs, 119 RBI, 0 SBs, .279 average
Those numbers are simply astounding for a man who toils in the middle of the San Diego Padres' lineup. He'd probably be first tier guy if he played for almost any other team. I say probably because there's also a nagging little issue of a slight, yet steady decline in his battering average that's accompanied his power surge.
However, Gonzalez is only 26 (27 in May) and he was brutalizing opponents' pitching in the World Baseball Classic. Some of it was off less-than-pro caliber pitching (I think I saw him homer off a 16-year-old kid from South Africa or something like that), but he also touched up several guys who you'll see in the Show.
If Adrian can get just a little help, he's up with the best of the best. Unfortunately, that means saying some Hail Marys for Chase Headley to figure it out toot sweet.
8. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers—86 runs, 34 HRs, 102 RBI, 3 SBs, .276 average
You might think it's crazy to have a dude who'll turn 25 in May and already has a 50 homer season to his credit this low. And you may very well be right. But I don't buy into this diet nonsense as the reason for his comparable lack of swat in '08. I think it's probably got something more to do with the modest incline in Ks.
The number (13) isn't huge, but I'd say about an extra whiff a week when the rate should be going in the other direction is enough to indicate something's a miss. My guess is that pitchers' have developed a book on the Prince—not necessarily to neutralize him, but to keep him in the park on more frequent occasion.
And if I'm wrong, I've just put a 40+ bomb stud who'll finish in shouting range of .300 behind a guy on the Padres. It's a thin line (ironic).
9. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros—114 runs, 29 HRs, 106 RBI, 18 SBs, .312 average
I'm guessing this one and No. 11 are gonna draw the most heat—rightfully so. Berkman finished 2008 as the seventh ranked fantasy player according to Yahoo. And I've listed eight first basemen before him heading into 2009. Hey, I never said I was that smart.
But, seriously, how can a 33-year-old duplicate that season? Lance isn't old, but that swipes total more than doubled anything he'd put up more than eight previous seasons. Furthermore, he cooled considerably after a white-hot start and chances are he isn't hitting .382 on June 5th again. Plus, the lineup is getting wobbly although the addition of Ivan Rodriguez should help.
Astro fans will say Berkman's numbers actually would've been higher except he lost Carlos Lee's protection. They have a point, but there are just too many reasons to be skeptical and too many other rosy options.
10. Derek Lee, Chicago Cubs—93 runs, 20 HRs, 90 RBI, 8 SBs, .291 average
D-Lee would be in the top tier if this were 2006 because he would be coming off his best year and he wouldn't have suffered the wrist injury that seems to have sapped some of his power. The other problem is that Lee, like Berkman, is 33. That's getting towards the end o' the line for a good percentage of Major Leaguers.
On the positive side, that '08 line is still pretty nifty and he's been remarkably consistent to those marks for almost this entire century. Even if Lee's entered his decline, it shouldn't be anything drastic and there's at least an equal chance that he's got a couple more years like this last one left in the tank.
11. Aubrey Huff, Baltimore Orioles—96 runs, 32 HRs, 108 RBI, 4 SBs, .304 average
Like I said, I expect to take some heat for this. Those numbers are right up there with most of the guys in the first tier. The problem is they came out of nowhere—that's not precisely true, they came out of 2003. Since then, Huff had been in steady decline and he's 32 so an enduring resurgence just doesn't seem likely.
The flip to that coin would be that Baltimore had some nice young hitters who should be developing quite nicely. If those bats arrive to take some of the focus from Aubrey's dome and he can keep that '08 stroke going, his number could get even better.
Again, there are just safer options with basically the same upside.
THIRD TIER
12. Adam Dunn, Washington Nationals—79 runs, 40 HRs, 100 RBI, 2 SBs, .236 average
If your league uses on-base-percentage instead of average, Dunn is probably a top tier guy since he comes with 40 taters. Most leagues don't so his average isn't saved by his high walk total.
To muddy the picture further, Adam now plays for the Nats. Washington's lineup is probably more volatile off the field than on it.
13. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds—69 runs, 24 HRs, 84 RBI, 7 SBs, .297 average
These are essentially the same numbers the 25-year-old Votto has tallied at every level for the past five years. His age suggests an increase in numbers is likely for the hitting machine.
As does a full year of Jay Bruce hitting in front of him and the intimate confines of most parks in the National League Central.
14. Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians—30 runs, 2 HRs, 35 RBI, 0 SBs, .278 average
We've already seen and covered Victor with the catchers. He's this high on the list for the same reasons—he can be used as a catcher without actually playing there and his resume earns him the benefit of injury-doubt.
That and he's hitting for good power in Spring Training.
15. Carlos Delgado, New York Mets—96 runs, 38 HRs, 115 RBI, 1 SB, .271 average
I have no idea what to make of the guy—he'll turn 37 in June, but the 38 ding-dongs from '08 make it 11 times in 12 seasons that Delgado has hit 30+ homers. His 2007 campaign and start to '08 were so bad, the Mets were scrambling to find a band-aid.
But it all came together before NY could find one and, judging from the WBC, Carlos hasn't looked back. But the guy will be able to spit to 40 before the All-Star break.
16. Chris Davis, Texas Rangers—51 runs, 17 HRs, 55 RBI, 1 SB, .286 average
There are three huge qualifiers to Davis: (A) he's 23; (B) he's eligible at the hot corner; and (C) he only registered 295 at-bats in 2008. Roughly double that stat line and you'd have one hell of a first year.
Not to mention the kid hits in a potent Ranger lineup and in a home yard where the ball flies out. If Davis can maintain that production for a full year, this could be your steal of the draft.
Fliers—Carlos Guillen (Tigers), Garrett Atkins (Colorado Rockies), Jorge Cantu (Florida Marlins), Carlos Pena (Tampa Bay Rays), James Loney (Los Angeles Dodgers), Billy Butler (Kansas City Royals), Nick Swisher (Yankees), Paul Konerko (Chicago White Sox), Mike Jacobs (Royals), Jason Giambi (Oakland Athletics)
The fliers are a cluttered and motley bunch.
You've got guys like Atkins and Swisher, who were once fantasy studs and may be again. However, their most recent seasons have left foul tastes in owners' mouthes.
You've got youngsters like Loney and Butler who have upside, but less so than the someone like Votto or Fielder.
And you've got former top tier guys who are breaking down like Giambi and Konerko.
The message here is to avoid being forced to take one of these guys. If you want to use a late round pick to see if Jacobs can hang another 32 home runs on the wall despite the chane in leagues, go for it.
Just don't make that Plan A.
Next up...second base.
None. I'd be writing until Major League Baseball's All-Star break.
Take, for instance, this article's focus—first basemen.
In 2008, 24 of the top 200 fantasy players (according to Yahoo) were either first basemen or will qualify at the spot in 2009. By comparison, only six players rocking the Tools of Ignorance boast the same credentials.
Kelly Shoppach is being taken, on average in Yahoo drafts, with the lowest pick of any catcher I wrote up (240th). If I extended the list out to that pick for the first sackers, it would be three times as long.
I don't want to write that and nobody wants to read it.
Instead, I'll be trying to give equal treatment to each tier from now on and the analysis will get substantially less-detailed after the first couple of tiers. That might sound lazy and, to some degree, it is.
However, it also makes a bit o' sense since tier three players and below are relatively unpredictable. Guys in those levels either were once elite and in decline or they're young and full of potential. Either set could easily be an albatross you're dropping after the first month or become a fantasy stalwart.
There's just no way to tell even with all the metrics and probabilistic analysis in the world, regardless of what some Bill-James-wannabe will tell you. There are just too many intangible variables to consider to make any predictions (that I've come across) more accurate than a 50/50 stab.
So, rather than give you a false sense of security by raving about some flier I'm fond of for some inane reason, I'll give you the quick pertinent facts as I see 'em and move on. Any fantasy player is just as qualified as I am to discover some late round gem.
After all, if you're taking someone with the 240th pick, that's the 20th round or later in most drafts. All bets are off in that twilight.
Having disposed of that little administrative matter, here's the next group...
THE FIRST BASEMEN
Not much needs to be said about the approach to these guys—draft 'em early and draft 'em often.
A lot of fantasy's biggest studs can be found under this heading and, since most leagues have at least one Utility spot in addition to all the standard positions, having a couple of these big sticks is usually a pretty good way to go.
Even if your league foregoes the extra spot, some of the guys have multi-positional eligibility. You can grab a guy like, say, Miguel Cabrera early and use him for his third base flexibilities while still nabbing another high-end first basemen a little bit later.
Thusly, you can use the talent depth at first to compensate for the shallow pool at third base.
One last caveat—first base is a power spot. Don't waste your energy trying to find that perfect guy who's gonna launch 30+ big flies while peppering to the tune of .300. Obviously, if you can lock him in, go for it.
But most fantasy teams will need power from this spot. There are lots of Punch-and-Judy hitters available in the late rounds and even via the wire after the draft. That's not usually true of legit power bats.
So don't worry about Ryan Howard's low batting average—you can grab an average/on-base percentage guy down the road to compensate for it if necessary.
On with it:
FIRST TIER
1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis, Cardinals—100 runs, 37 HRs, 116 RBI, 7 SBs, .357 average
Only seven steals? What a stiff.
In case this is your first fantasy go around, Pujols actually slid down a lot of draft boards in 2008 because of an elbow injury. In other words, those numbers could actually see a jump after offseason surgery to repair some sort of nerve problem.
Not to mention the breakout season had by Ryan Ludwick. Pujols should benefit from a more confident Ludwick as well as another year of experience on Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker, and the possible arrival (finally) of Colby Rasmus.
I don't know if Albert is actually the 29 years of age his profile lists, but he's clearly still in the prime of his career and feeling healthy (despite a Spring Training kick to the head) entering the 2009 campaign.
This hombre is so good, there isn't much fuss made over his last name rhyming with a part of animal anatomy. Considering how juvenile most MLB fans are (myself included), that might be the most profound endorsement of the man yet.
He's your No. 1 pick unless you happen to hate the Cardinals or believe the third base position is even thinner than the general consensus. Albert Pujols really should have a tier all to himself.
2. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers—85 runs, 37 HRs, 127 RBI, 1 SB, .292 average
There are several guys I'd consider taking if I had the first pick and Cabrera's one of 'em.
In Yahoo leagues, Miguel has third base eligibility as well and the hot corner was slim before Alex Rodriguez went down. Combine that with his production from 2008 and it makes him a candidate to be the first name off the board.
But Cabrera's intoxicating for another reason—he'll be 26 in April and '08 was his first year in the American League.
So he's in the window where supremely talented youngsters tend to make substantial leaps in production plus Cabrera's had a full year to get his Junior Circuit legs underneath him and his AL-eye honed.
If nothing else, you should see his average return to its more familiar .320 average. If that inevitability does come to pass, you should also get a complimentary boost in the peripherals.
Especially if Curtis Granderson has the year everyone expected him to have in '08. And Gary Sheffield returns from the dead.
3. Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees—102 runs, 33 HRs, 121 RBI, 2 SBs, .308 average
Those three words following Teixeira's name should terrify you.
His monster year got lost a bit in the shuffle between leagues last year, but good grief. And Tex did that in two lineups that didn't have the juice (on paper) that the Bombers have in 2009—some parts disappointed a bit in '08, but they're good bets to rebound nicely.
If guys like Robinson Cano and Jorge Posada do regain form, look out.
Teixeira will be 29 in April so he should be good for those 2008 numbers at a minimum. Since Mark is clearly one of MLB's most gifted splinters and he's not yet at the (supposed) peak of his career, there's a good chance his 2009 stats will be something new altogether for the Yankee first baseman.
The cherry on the sundae? He's already scorching over .400 in Spring Training.
4. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins—97 runs, 23 HRs, 129 RBI, 0 SBs, .300 average
How is it possible that Morneau will only be 28 in May? I had him in his early 30s.
The other question would be how in the world does he put those stats up in the Twins' lineup? Aside from Joe Mauer, there's almost nothing there.
That actually changes a bit in 2009 with the addition of Joe Crede (assuming he can stay on the field) and another year of experience on some talented newbies (Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, Denard Span, etc.). Still, that lineup isn't gonna make anyone's hair go gray except maybe Ron Gardenhire's.
Of course, Morneau should scare the socks off any opposing pitcher.
The guy is a mashing machine. Last season saw a bit of a drop in his homer total, but he compensated by bloating both his RBI and average. And it gets better.
Morneau had offseason laser eye surgery to improve his vision. It might sound stupid, but one thing Barry Bonds always made a fuss over was how well he could see the ball. If Justin's spotting the ball out of the hurler's hand better, get some new socks.
5. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies—105 runs, 48 HRs, 146 RBI, 1 SB, .251 average
The BIG fella is the lone exception to my general rule of reserving the top tier for guys who contribute in every category except maybe speed or power.
I'm not as enamored of the long-ball as a lot of fans, but 48 homers are 48 homers—I don't care how you slice it...in fantasy. In real-life, two years of 199 strikeouts is a deal-breaker as is the .251 average. All the more so because Howard needed a scalding September just to raise his average to those lofty heights.
But, as I said in the introduction to this series, fantasy value is a much different animal than real value.
So Ryan squeezes his big posterior into the first tier as the preeminent power threat in baseball, who is also a good candidate for a bounce-back year in average due to his 29 years and the ridiculous lineup amongst which he sits.
Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, and even Pedro Feliz should benefit from the confidence boost they'll soon wear on their fingers. Oh, and playing in a veritable band box never hurts the ol' sluggers.
SECOND TIER
6. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox—91 runs, 29 HRs, 115 RBI, 3 SBs, .312 average
You'll quickly see that most of the second tier guys fall under the category of "would be in the first tier, but [fill in the blank]." For Youk, it's the injury bug although he's already been cleared to go on Monday and I have it from serious people that the Greek God of Walks is better when he's leaking oil.
If that's the case, Youkilis really should be up above because he's also eligible at third base plus he's a newly minted 30-year-old, which means he's in his prime. Toss that in with a cancer-free clubhouse (has Manny responded to that?), a full year of Jason Bay, growth from Jacoby Ellsbury (25), ditto Dustin Pedroia (26 in August), and a return from the brink by either David Ortiz or Mike Lowell.
The result should make him a lock to repeat his stellar '08 performance, maybe even surpass it. Still, there is that injury...
7. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres—103 runs, 36 HRs, 119 RBI, 0 SBs, .279 average
Those numbers are simply astounding for a man who toils in the middle of the San Diego Padres' lineup. He'd probably be first tier guy if he played for almost any other team. I say probably because there's also a nagging little issue of a slight, yet steady decline in his battering average that's accompanied his power surge.
However, Gonzalez is only 26 (27 in May) and he was brutalizing opponents' pitching in the World Baseball Classic. Some of it was off less-than-pro caliber pitching (I think I saw him homer off a 16-year-old kid from South Africa or something like that), but he also touched up several guys who you'll see in the Show.
If Adrian can get just a little help, he's up with the best of the best. Unfortunately, that means saying some Hail Marys for Chase Headley to figure it out toot sweet.
8. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers—86 runs, 34 HRs, 102 RBI, 3 SBs, .276 average
You might think it's crazy to have a dude who'll turn 25 in May and already has a 50 homer season to his credit this low. And you may very well be right. But I don't buy into this diet nonsense as the reason for his comparable lack of swat in '08. I think it's probably got something more to do with the modest incline in Ks.
The number (13) isn't huge, but I'd say about an extra whiff a week when the rate should be going in the other direction is enough to indicate something's a miss. My guess is that pitchers' have developed a book on the Prince—not necessarily to neutralize him, but to keep him in the park on more frequent occasion.
And if I'm wrong, I've just put a 40+ bomb stud who'll finish in shouting range of .300 behind a guy on the Padres. It's a thin line (ironic).
9. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros—114 runs, 29 HRs, 106 RBI, 18 SBs, .312 average
I'm guessing this one and No. 11 are gonna draw the most heat—rightfully so. Berkman finished 2008 as the seventh ranked fantasy player according to Yahoo. And I've listed eight first basemen before him heading into 2009. Hey, I never said I was that smart.
But, seriously, how can a 33-year-old duplicate that season? Lance isn't old, but that swipes total more than doubled anything he'd put up more than eight previous seasons. Furthermore, he cooled considerably after a white-hot start and chances are he isn't hitting .382 on June 5th again. Plus, the lineup is getting wobbly although the addition of Ivan Rodriguez should help.
Astro fans will say Berkman's numbers actually would've been higher except he lost Carlos Lee's protection. They have a point, but there are just too many reasons to be skeptical and too many other rosy options.
10. Derek Lee, Chicago Cubs—93 runs, 20 HRs, 90 RBI, 8 SBs, .291 average
D-Lee would be in the top tier if this were 2006 because he would be coming off his best year and he wouldn't have suffered the wrist injury that seems to have sapped some of his power. The other problem is that Lee, like Berkman, is 33. That's getting towards the end o' the line for a good percentage of Major Leaguers.
On the positive side, that '08 line is still pretty nifty and he's been remarkably consistent to those marks for almost this entire century. Even if Lee's entered his decline, it shouldn't be anything drastic and there's at least an equal chance that he's got a couple more years like this last one left in the tank.
11. Aubrey Huff, Baltimore Orioles—96 runs, 32 HRs, 108 RBI, 4 SBs, .304 average
Like I said, I expect to take some heat for this. Those numbers are right up there with most of the guys in the first tier. The problem is they came out of nowhere—that's not precisely true, they came out of 2003. Since then, Huff had been in steady decline and he's 32 so an enduring resurgence just doesn't seem likely.
The flip to that coin would be that Baltimore had some nice young hitters who should be developing quite nicely. If those bats arrive to take some of the focus from Aubrey's dome and he can keep that '08 stroke going, his number could get even better.
Again, there are just safer options with basically the same upside.
THIRD TIER
12. Adam Dunn, Washington Nationals—79 runs, 40 HRs, 100 RBI, 2 SBs, .236 average
If your league uses on-base-percentage instead of average, Dunn is probably a top tier guy since he comes with 40 taters. Most leagues don't so his average isn't saved by his high walk total.
To muddy the picture further, Adam now plays for the Nats. Washington's lineup is probably more volatile off the field than on it.
13. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds—69 runs, 24 HRs, 84 RBI, 7 SBs, .297 average
These are essentially the same numbers the 25-year-old Votto has tallied at every level for the past five years. His age suggests an increase in numbers is likely for the hitting machine.
As does a full year of Jay Bruce hitting in front of him and the intimate confines of most parks in the National League Central.
14. Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians—30 runs, 2 HRs, 35 RBI, 0 SBs, .278 average
We've already seen and covered Victor with the catchers. He's this high on the list for the same reasons—he can be used as a catcher without actually playing there and his resume earns him the benefit of injury-doubt.
That and he's hitting for good power in Spring Training.
15. Carlos Delgado, New York Mets—96 runs, 38 HRs, 115 RBI, 1 SB, .271 average
I have no idea what to make of the guy—he'll turn 37 in June, but the 38 ding-dongs from '08 make it 11 times in 12 seasons that Delgado has hit 30+ homers. His 2007 campaign and start to '08 were so bad, the Mets were scrambling to find a band-aid.
But it all came together before NY could find one and, judging from the WBC, Carlos hasn't looked back. But the guy will be able to spit to 40 before the All-Star break.
16. Chris Davis, Texas Rangers—51 runs, 17 HRs, 55 RBI, 1 SB, .286 average
There are three huge qualifiers to Davis: (A) he's 23; (B) he's eligible at the hot corner; and (C) he only registered 295 at-bats in 2008. Roughly double that stat line and you'd have one hell of a first year.
Not to mention the kid hits in a potent Ranger lineup and in a home yard where the ball flies out. If Davis can maintain that production for a full year, this could be your steal of the draft.
Fliers—Carlos Guillen (Tigers), Garrett Atkins (Colorado Rockies), Jorge Cantu (Florida Marlins), Carlos Pena (Tampa Bay Rays), James Loney (Los Angeles Dodgers), Billy Butler (Kansas City Royals), Nick Swisher (Yankees), Paul Konerko (Chicago White Sox), Mike Jacobs (Royals), Jason Giambi (Oakland Athletics)
The fliers are a cluttered and motley bunch.
You've got guys like Atkins and Swisher, who were once fantasy studs and may be again. However, their most recent seasons have left foul tastes in owners' mouthes.
You've got youngsters like Loney and Butler who have upside, but less so than the someone like Votto or Fielder.
And you've got former top tier guys who are breaking down like Giambi and Konerko.
The message here is to avoid being forced to take one of these guys. If you want to use a late round pick to see if Jacobs can hang another 32 home runs on the wall despite the chane in leagues, go for it.
Just don't make that Plan A.
Next up...second base.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Through the Wardrobe—A Fantasy Look at Catchers
There's a very large difference between actual Major League Baseball and the fantasy version that so many of us anticipate with analysis-viewing pandemonium.
Fantasy baseball is probably one of the primary reasons I found my way onto Bleacher Report—I've always loved sports and discussing them, but only after I had been plumbing the depths of online resources for baseball insight did I realize how large the market for sports journalism really is.
Clearly, I'm as hooked as most of America and this is coming from someone who once hated the very mention of fantasy baseball.
Back in those days, the fact that fantasy value skews some perceptions of the real thing got under my skin and laid eggs. It still bothers me when I see the stat-driven arguments for one player over another, but not so much in MLB since the sabermetric community has developed some numbers that paint a pretty accurate picture.
However, they still don't tell the whole story, some need a lot of work (the fielding metrics particularly), and most fantasy leagues don't use them anyway. They use the standard categories like average, runs, runs batted in, home runs, stolen bases, wins, saves, earned run average, WHP, strikeouts, etc.
The two leagues I'll participate in this year use the historic stats. Regardless, I still can't wait. If it skews my perception (hopefully not) or others (already has), oh well—it's worth it.
That's basically a long-winded explanation for why my fantasy assessments might not be congruous with the real-life ones that popped up in the previews I wrote for each team.
For instance, an enormous whiff rate for a hitter doesn't really matter for fantasy purposes as long as he still fills categories like HRs, RBIs, or some other counting category. So I might still like, say, Adam Dunn for fantasy purposes.
Or the make-believe Brian Wilson might not be as valuable as the real one because the method for evaluating closers is far different in fantasy. As a San Francisco Giant fan, I couldn't care less what Wilson's ERA or WHIP is as long as he doesn't blow a bunch of saves. As a fantasy owner, I probably don't care too much about blown saves as long as he keeps his peripherals down (which he doesn't).
The other thing about fantasy is that all positions are not created equally.
This piece will deal with catchers primarily because the position is so thin. It allows me to get the introduction out of the way while still knocking a position off the list—there are only 10 or 12 guys that need examination.
Outfielders, starting pitchers, closers, and even first basemen will require a considerably longer list.
One final caveat, I'm approaching these as if I'm in a standard league i.e. AL/NL, 10-12 team league, head-to-head, five or six hitting categories, the same number of pitching categories, no transaction limits, and traditional statistical categories like those mentioned.
If you're in an exotic league, the outlook could be considerably different. Reader beware.
Without further ado, here's how I approach the backstops in the world of make-believe:
THE CATCHERS
There are two basic schools of thought.
You can view the spot in a head-to-head context, in which case you want to use a high draft pick to grab a top tier catcher. If you grab Brian McCann, you're probably gonna win the catcher battle pretty handily most weeks. Consequently, you'll have a wider margin of error for the other slots where the outcomes of positional battles are harder to predict on a weekly basis.
On the other hand, if you view the catcher in a rotisserie context (still an appropriate mentality even in head-to-head leagues), it makes little sense to grab an elite catcher for two reasons: (A) even elite catchers produce about as well as an above-average outfielder so (B) if he goes down you're screwed.
If you've burned a top draft pick on a guy just for the margin he alone provides and he hits the shelf, you've just dug yourself a considerable hole. You've given up substantial value drafting an elite catcher over his counterpart at basically any other offensive position (I'll cover pitchers when I get there) and now you're plan is out the window.
In two seasons of fantasy baseball, I've taken the head-to-head approach and had it work to perfection with Victor Martinez in 2007 then blow up in my face with Jorge Posada last year. My team made the playoffs both times, but I plan on taking the rotisserie approach because I think I got lucky when my league slept a bit on Ryan Doumit.
Furthermore, the rotisserie approach to the overall draft makes sense for another reason.
In a 10-12 team league with opponents who have even a vague notion of what they're doing, you're not gonna get an elite player at every position. If that's the case, then why not forfeit the weakest one right away?
Baseball's so unpredictable that, while the positional tete-a-tete approach makes logical sense, it makes far more sense to collect as many high-end pieces as possible to protect against the inevitability of one going down.
With that in mind, here are the draftable catchers (in descending order):
FIRST TIER
1. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves—68 runs, 23 HRs, 87 RBI, 5 SBs, .301 average
The biggest stud in the catching game illustrates the problem right off the bat. This it the best bet at a grueling position. McCann's only 25, hits for good average/power, and will probably flirt with 100 RBI in a stronger lineup this year.
But he still finished 2008 as the 94th rated player in fantasy baseball according to Yahoo. That means the best catcher available finished '08 behind such luminaries as my boy Randy Winn, Michael Young, Joey Votto, and Melvin Mora.
Those are nice hitters, but not a single fantasy player would DREAM of grabbing one of 'em with the 44th pick in a draft. And, yet, that's where McCann's going.
I'm not saying it's totally unwise because he's as good a gamble to stay healthy at an impossibly vulnerable position and McCann's as reliable as death/taxes. Combined, those could make him worth the premium you'll pay.
And his numbers should be even better this year with the acquisition of Garret Anderson, better years from Jeff Francoeur (it can't be worse), and his own growth in the batters box as well as that of Casey Kotchman (26), Kelly Johnson (27), and Yunel Escobar (26).
Make no mistake, though, you WILL be paying a premium for McCann. Aramis Ramirez finished '08 as the 44th ranked fantasy player last year and he put up considerably better numbers.
2. Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs—66 runs, 23 HRs, 86 RBI, 0 SBs, .285 average
By the time '09 is over, fantasy might have a new champ donning the Tools of Ignorance.
Consider that Soto basically put up the same numbers as McCann less about 15 points from his batting average. He's also about a year older than the Braves' backstop. However, last year was Geovany's first full one in the Show and that's no meager qualifier considering it means he also had to adjust to defense at the most difficult professional position.
Despite the acclimation, he still managed to keep pace with arguably the most complete (offensive) catcher in the game. Not too shabby.
Like McCann's Atlanta lineup, Soto figures to benefit from the presence of some new blood (Milton Bradley if he can stay on the diamond) as well as a rebound from a key teammate (Derek Lee, who's hurt right now apparently). Those two pieces combined with another year of maturity/experience on Geovany should give his numbers a boost.
The only question is whether it will be big enough to propel him passed McCann and into the throne.
3. Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers—87 runs, 13 HRs, 69 RBI, 18 SBs, .280 average
This guy poses a special problem for me.
For one thing, I refuse to draft Bums—I just won't do it. Since there are arguably only four top tier catchers and Martin's definitely one of them, 25 percent of the group is untouchable for me.
For another (really an extension of the first), Martin may represent a critical little wrinkle at the position.
Most fans know that catchers don't put up shiny offensive numbers because the physical exertion and beating behind the plate is profound. It drains MLB's squatters faster and drier than any other position on the field so, if you can get a guy who qualifies as a catcher without actually playing there, yahtzee!
Russell Martin played several games at third base in '08. With Casey Blake on the roster and no scintillating option behind Martin, a move to the hot corner doesn't seem likely. But the guy has serious speed at 26 and LA may be equally serious about trying to protect it.
Regardless, last season was a bit of a lateral step for the Dodgers' young catcher. Look for a step forward in 2009.
SECOND TIER
4. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins—98 runs, 9 HRs, 85 RBI, 1 SB, .328 average
Mauer actually finished 2008 as the highest rated catcher in baseball (according to Yahoo) so why are there three names ahead of him? Especially considering he's a catcher who hit .328?
Easy, he's already got a ding going.
Like I said, catcher is brutal physically and even more so mentally. It is simply impossible for a guy to last 162 games without losing a substantial amount of edge from both aspects of his game—it just ain't happening.
So entering the season with a bite in a muscle or a tweak in a tendon or whatever is Bad News Bears for anyone, but infinitely more so for a catcher.
And Joe Mauer sounds like he's got something serious a-brewin'.
I want NO part of that. In fact, I might have him lower on this list by the time my drafts roll around. If the news doesn't start getting better on him quickly, I'd go so far as to drop him down to Victor Martinez.
Major League catchers don't recharge on their days off—they just deteriorate a little more slowly. If you're not starting Opening Day at 100 percent, you're screwed.
5. Chris Ianetta, Colorado Rockies—50 runs, 18 HRs, 65 RBI, 0 SBs, .265 average
That line doesn't look particularly impressive so why does Ianetta rank up with last seaon's (dented) best model?
Because he put those numbers up in only 333 at-bats and he plays his home games at Coors Field in Denver. Plus he's scorching the ball in the World Baseball Classic against some high caliber pitching and he scored from second (although the ump blew the call) on a ground ball to first. All he needed was for the pitcher to argue the call.
If you even think about doing something like that, you've gotta have good speed or not much rattlin' around the ol' coconut. Since backstops have to be baseball smart, that tells me the bagel in the stolen bags column will not be there in 2009.
Even if it is (maybe he's a bad base stealer), the dude will only be 26 in several weeks and the job is entirely his this year. Ianetta should see about 200 extra ABs and that may result in around 30 bombs with the bump in peripherals such would entail.
Granted, the Colorado lineup has lost a lot of oomph with no more Matt Holliday. But it's got some young kids that could come around and Holliday's absence should mean more runs to drive in for other RBI guys...like Ianetta.
If he comes through, he could hop into the top tier. If not, he could fall and fall.
6. Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh Pirates—71 runs, 15 HRs, 69 RBI, 2 SBs, .318 average
Doumit would be above Ianetta if he were younger. He's still not old at 28 (in a couple weeks), but those may be significant years when measuring the life of a catcher. Doumit also got more ABs (431) in '08 so, although he should see a full slate this year barring another injury, his numbers don't figure to see as great an inflation as Ianetta's.
There's also the matter of the lineup.
I think Pittsburgh will surprise a lot of people this year, but it's still not a fearsome collection of hitters. The Bucs have some nice potential, but it could be slim pickin's if that potential doesn't arrive on time.
The bottom-line is that Doumit can rake and he's probably the best combo of power/average you'll get outside of McCann.
He could hang in the top tier if he can stretch those '08 numbers out over 100 more ABs this campaign, but he doesn't figure to fall below the second tier since a .300+ average over 400 ABs is usually a good indication the wood is for real.
THIRD TIER
7. Victor Martinez, Indians—30 runs, 2 HRs, 35 RBI, 0 SBs, .278 average
Only six players in and we're starting to wobble.
Martinez leads off the third tier despite losing essentially the entire '08 campaign to injury because of that aforementioned wrinkle to the catcher position. Victor sees regular work at first base and that (in theory) keeps him fresher longer. It's also supposed to keep him healthy.
The best laid plans of mice and men...
In truth, Martinez' versatility could move him up this list except he's already 30 and coming off serious injury. Although early reports coming out of Spring Training indicate that he's got his power stroke back, exhibition pitching is not real pitching and that's even truer this year with so many key arms at the WBC.
Of course, there is the matter of a decently extensive track record that shows Victor to be a reliable bet for an average around .300 and close to 20 tater tots.
If he can return to those heights, it would launch him right back into the catching stratosphere.
8. Kelly Shoppach, Cleveland Indians—67 runs, 21 HRs, 55 RBI, 0 SBs, .261 average
Shoppach had a very nice 2008 by catchers' standards. So nice, he figures to see more than 352 ABs in 2009. So why does he get left behind when more ABs for guys like Ianetta and Doumit bump them into the second tier?
More at-bats are only a good thing if the production stays consistent or nearly so. If the production declines, then more chances hurts the overall body of work as the ratios decline faster than the counting stats increase.
With catchers, that's a considerably larger problem because only the better backstops can continue to produce at the April/May status quo in August/September.
In other words, I don't expect Shoppach to add a ton of counting stats (HRs, RBIs, etc.) in those additional plate appearances. I do expect them to bring his average down, though, so I figure his '09 campaign to closely resemble his '08 version in overall value.
9. Mike Napoli, Anaheim Angels—39 runs, 20 HRs, 49 RBI, 7 SBs, .273 average
Napoli put up pretty incredible numbers in just 227 ABs. But he slides down here because he is also already banged up and, like Shoppach, I don't expect his production to last over 162 games.
It might look odd because Napoli would seem to have a better mix of average, power, and speed. However, he's also got three years of basically the same production. That makes the lack in increase of AB's most troubling.
Napoli's numbers did increase in 2008 more drastically than in previous years so look for him to see some extra time. But only if he can stay healthy and, even then, it doesn't seem to be a lock.
10. Benjie Molina, San Francisco Giants—46 runs, 16 HRs, 95 RBI, 0 SBs, .292 average
It kills me to do this to one of my guys, but even I wouldn't draft Big Money.
I'm actually being generous keeping him this high. Molina is probably the Giants' most threatening hitter, but that's more a statement about the rest of the team than it is one about Benjie.
He put up arguably the best year of his career at the age of 34 and he finished as the 195th ranked player in the Yahoo game. Molina finished 2008 behind Jose Guillen, Mike Aviles, Ryan Theriot, and Christian Guzman.
And that's your best case scenario. Ugh.
11. Jorge Posada, New York Yankees—18 runs, 3 HRs, 22 RBI, 0 SBs, .268 average
I have to include Posada as draftable simply because he hits in the New York Yankees' lineup. That alone should be good for some big numbers if he can stay healthy (see a common theme?).
Of course, Jorge will be 38 in August and that's old for almost any position. For catcher, it's freakin' ancient.
With Mark Teixeira aboard at first base and Hideki Matsui unable to play the field for at least the first half, there wouldn't seem to be any place to put Posada to spare him the abuse of catching.
And what if his shoulder doesn't rebound? What if he physically can't play behind the plate? Then his only ABs will come in a platoon with Matsui at designated hitter while spelling Tex on occasion.
Not great circumstances under which to try to recapture the glory of youth for anyone.
Fliers—Matt Wieters (Baltimore Orioles), Taylor Teagarden (Texas Rangers), Jared Saltalamacchia (Rangers), Pablo Sandoval (Giants), Jeff Clement (Seattle Mariners), Dioner Navarro (Tampa Bay Rays)
The fliers at catcher are the defintion of the term. As my fliers will tend to be, they're mostly young guys with little or no track record and a ton of potential. Any name on that list (with the possible exception of Navarro) could become a 20 homer/.300 hitter if you believe what certain scouts say.
The string attached is they're trying to learn the toughest gig in the Show and Major League pitching all at once. Salty and Clement have both shown it's a difficult thing to do.
Wieters seems to be a lock to do it eventually, but this is his first year and he may be kept in the minors to delay arbitration. Sandoval is the other intriguing name because he sprays frozen ropes all over the yard plus he'll be playing mostly third (or first if Plan A falls apart).
Next up...first base.
Fantasy baseball is probably one of the primary reasons I found my way onto Bleacher Report—I've always loved sports and discussing them, but only after I had been plumbing the depths of online resources for baseball insight did I realize how large the market for sports journalism really is.
Clearly, I'm as hooked as most of America and this is coming from someone who once hated the very mention of fantasy baseball.
Back in those days, the fact that fantasy value skews some perceptions of the real thing got under my skin and laid eggs. It still bothers me when I see the stat-driven arguments for one player over another, but not so much in MLB since the sabermetric community has developed some numbers that paint a pretty accurate picture.
However, they still don't tell the whole story, some need a lot of work (the fielding metrics particularly), and most fantasy leagues don't use them anyway. They use the standard categories like average, runs, runs batted in, home runs, stolen bases, wins, saves, earned run average, WHP, strikeouts, etc.
The two leagues I'll participate in this year use the historic stats. Regardless, I still can't wait. If it skews my perception (hopefully not) or others (already has), oh well—it's worth it.
That's basically a long-winded explanation for why my fantasy assessments might not be congruous with the real-life ones that popped up in the previews I wrote for each team.
For instance, an enormous whiff rate for a hitter doesn't really matter for fantasy purposes as long as he still fills categories like HRs, RBIs, or some other counting category. So I might still like, say, Adam Dunn for fantasy purposes.
Or the make-believe Brian Wilson might not be as valuable as the real one because the method for evaluating closers is far different in fantasy. As a San Francisco Giant fan, I couldn't care less what Wilson's ERA or WHIP is as long as he doesn't blow a bunch of saves. As a fantasy owner, I probably don't care too much about blown saves as long as he keeps his peripherals down (which he doesn't).
The other thing about fantasy is that all positions are not created equally.
This piece will deal with catchers primarily because the position is so thin. It allows me to get the introduction out of the way while still knocking a position off the list—there are only 10 or 12 guys that need examination.
Outfielders, starting pitchers, closers, and even first basemen will require a considerably longer list.
One final caveat, I'm approaching these as if I'm in a standard league i.e. AL/NL, 10-12 team league, head-to-head, five or six hitting categories, the same number of pitching categories, no transaction limits, and traditional statistical categories like those mentioned.
If you're in an exotic league, the outlook could be considerably different. Reader beware.
Without further ado, here's how I approach the backstops in the world of make-believe:
THE CATCHERS
There are two basic schools of thought.
You can view the spot in a head-to-head context, in which case you want to use a high draft pick to grab a top tier catcher. If you grab Brian McCann, you're probably gonna win the catcher battle pretty handily most weeks. Consequently, you'll have a wider margin of error for the other slots where the outcomes of positional battles are harder to predict on a weekly basis.
On the other hand, if you view the catcher in a rotisserie context (still an appropriate mentality even in head-to-head leagues), it makes little sense to grab an elite catcher for two reasons: (A) even elite catchers produce about as well as an above-average outfielder so (B) if he goes down you're screwed.
If you've burned a top draft pick on a guy just for the margin he alone provides and he hits the shelf, you've just dug yourself a considerable hole. You've given up substantial value drafting an elite catcher over his counterpart at basically any other offensive position (I'll cover pitchers when I get there) and now you're plan is out the window.
In two seasons of fantasy baseball, I've taken the head-to-head approach and had it work to perfection with Victor Martinez in 2007 then blow up in my face with Jorge Posada last year. My team made the playoffs both times, but I plan on taking the rotisserie approach because I think I got lucky when my league slept a bit on Ryan Doumit.
Furthermore, the rotisserie approach to the overall draft makes sense for another reason.
In a 10-12 team league with opponents who have even a vague notion of what they're doing, you're not gonna get an elite player at every position. If that's the case, then why not forfeit the weakest one right away?
Baseball's so unpredictable that, while the positional tete-a-tete approach makes logical sense, it makes far more sense to collect as many high-end pieces as possible to protect against the inevitability of one going down.
With that in mind, here are the draftable catchers (in descending order):
FIRST TIER
1. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves—68 runs, 23 HRs, 87 RBI, 5 SBs, .301 average
The biggest stud in the catching game illustrates the problem right off the bat. This it the best bet at a grueling position. McCann's only 25, hits for good average/power, and will probably flirt with 100 RBI in a stronger lineup this year.
But he still finished 2008 as the 94th rated player in fantasy baseball according to Yahoo. That means the best catcher available finished '08 behind such luminaries as my boy Randy Winn, Michael Young, Joey Votto, and Melvin Mora.
Those are nice hitters, but not a single fantasy player would DREAM of grabbing one of 'em with the 44th pick in a draft. And, yet, that's where McCann's going.
I'm not saying it's totally unwise because he's as good a gamble to stay healthy at an impossibly vulnerable position and McCann's as reliable as death/taxes. Combined, those could make him worth the premium you'll pay.
And his numbers should be even better this year with the acquisition of Garret Anderson, better years from Jeff Francoeur (it can't be worse), and his own growth in the batters box as well as that of Casey Kotchman (26), Kelly Johnson (27), and Yunel Escobar (26).
Make no mistake, though, you WILL be paying a premium for McCann. Aramis Ramirez finished '08 as the 44th ranked fantasy player last year and he put up considerably better numbers.
2. Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs—66 runs, 23 HRs, 86 RBI, 0 SBs, .285 average
By the time '09 is over, fantasy might have a new champ donning the Tools of Ignorance.
Consider that Soto basically put up the same numbers as McCann less about 15 points from his batting average. He's also about a year older than the Braves' backstop. However, last year was Geovany's first full one in the Show and that's no meager qualifier considering it means he also had to adjust to defense at the most difficult professional position.
Despite the acclimation, he still managed to keep pace with arguably the most complete (offensive) catcher in the game. Not too shabby.
Like McCann's Atlanta lineup, Soto figures to benefit from the presence of some new blood (Milton Bradley if he can stay on the diamond) as well as a rebound from a key teammate (Derek Lee, who's hurt right now apparently). Those two pieces combined with another year of maturity/experience on Geovany should give his numbers a boost.
The only question is whether it will be big enough to propel him passed McCann and into the throne.
3. Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers—87 runs, 13 HRs, 69 RBI, 18 SBs, .280 average
This guy poses a special problem for me.
For one thing, I refuse to draft Bums—I just won't do it. Since there are arguably only four top tier catchers and Martin's definitely one of them, 25 percent of the group is untouchable for me.
For another (really an extension of the first), Martin may represent a critical little wrinkle at the position.
Most fans know that catchers don't put up shiny offensive numbers because the physical exertion and beating behind the plate is profound. It drains MLB's squatters faster and drier than any other position on the field so, if you can get a guy who qualifies as a catcher without actually playing there, yahtzee!
Russell Martin played several games at third base in '08. With Casey Blake on the roster and no scintillating option behind Martin, a move to the hot corner doesn't seem likely. But the guy has serious speed at 26 and LA may be equally serious about trying to protect it.
Regardless, last season was a bit of a lateral step for the Dodgers' young catcher. Look for a step forward in 2009.
SECOND TIER
4. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins—98 runs, 9 HRs, 85 RBI, 1 SB, .328 average
Mauer actually finished 2008 as the highest rated catcher in baseball (according to Yahoo) so why are there three names ahead of him? Especially considering he's a catcher who hit .328?
Easy, he's already got a ding going.
Like I said, catcher is brutal physically and even more so mentally. It is simply impossible for a guy to last 162 games without losing a substantial amount of edge from both aspects of his game—it just ain't happening.
So entering the season with a bite in a muscle or a tweak in a tendon or whatever is Bad News Bears for anyone, but infinitely more so for a catcher.
And Joe Mauer sounds like he's got something serious a-brewin'.
I want NO part of that. In fact, I might have him lower on this list by the time my drafts roll around. If the news doesn't start getting better on him quickly, I'd go so far as to drop him down to Victor Martinez.
Major League catchers don't recharge on their days off—they just deteriorate a little more slowly. If you're not starting Opening Day at 100 percent, you're screwed.
5. Chris Ianetta, Colorado Rockies—50 runs, 18 HRs, 65 RBI, 0 SBs, .265 average
That line doesn't look particularly impressive so why does Ianetta rank up with last seaon's (dented) best model?
Because he put those numbers up in only 333 at-bats and he plays his home games at Coors Field in Denver. Plus he's scorching the ball in the World Baseball Classic against some high caliber pitching and he scored from second (although the ump blew the call) on a ground ball to first. All he needed was for the pitcher to argue the call.
If you even think about doing something like that, you've gotta have good speed or not much rattlin' around the ol' coconut. Since backstops have to be baseball smart, that tells me the bagel in the stolen bags column will not be there in 2009.
Even if it is (maybe he's a bad base stealer), the dude will only be 26 in several weeks and the job is entirely his this year. Ianetta should see about 200 extra ABs and that may result in around 30 bombs with the bump in peripherals such would entail.
Granted, the Colorado lineup has lost a lot of oomph with no more Matt Holliday. But it's got some young kids that could come around and Holliday's absence should mean more runs to drive in for other RBI guys...like Ianetta.
If he comes through, he could hop into the top tier. If not, he could fall and fall.
6. Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh Pirates—71 runs, 15 HRs, 69 RBI, 2 SBs, .318 average
Doumit would be above Ianetta if he were younger. He's still not old at 28 (in a couple weeks), but those may be significant years when measuring the life of a catcher. Doumit also got more ABs (431) in '08 so, although he should see a full slate this year barring another injury, his numbers don't figure to see as great an inflation as Ianetta's.
There's also the matter of the lineup.
I think Pittsburgh will surprise a lot of people this year, but it's still not a fearsome collection of hitters. The Bucs have some nice potential, but it could be slim pickin's if that potential doesn't arrive on time.
The bottom-line is that Doumit can rake and he's probably the best combo of power/average you'll get outside of McCann.
He could hang in the top tier if he can stretch those '08 numbers out over 100 more ABs this campaign, but he doesn't figure to fall below the second tier since a .300+ average over 400 ABs is usually a good indication the wood is for real.
THIRD TIER
7. Victor Martinez, Indians—30 runs, 2 HRs, 35 RBI, 0 SBs, .278 average
Only six players in and we're starting to wobble.
Martinez leads off the third tier despite losing essentially the entire '08 campaign to injury because of that aforementioned wrinkle to the catcher position. Victor sees regular work at first base and that (in theory) keeps him fresher longer. It's also supposed to keep him healthy.
The best laid plans of mice and men...
In truth, Martinez' versatility could move him up this list except he's already 30 and coming off serious injury. Although early reports coming out of Spring Training indicate that he's got his power stroke back, exhibition pitching is not real pitching and that's even truer this year with so many key arms at the WBC.
Of course, there is the matter of a decently extensive track record that shows Victor to be a reliable bet for an average around .300 and close to 20 tater tots.
If he can return to those heights, it would launch him right back into the catching stratosphere.
8. Kelly Shoppach, Cleveland Indians—67 runs, 21 HRs, 55 RBI, 0 SBs, .261 average
Shoppach had a very nice 2008 by catchers' standards. So nice, he figures to see more than 352 ABs in 2009. So why does he get left behind when more ABs for guys like Ianetta and Doumit bump them into the second tier?
More at-bats are only a good thing if the production stays consistent or nearly so. If the production declines, then more chances hurts the overall body of work as the ratios decline faster than the counting stats increase.
With catchers, that's a considerably larger problem because only the better backstops can continue to produce at the April/May status quo in August/September.
In other words, I don't expect Shoppach to add a ton of counting stats (HRs, RBIs, etc.) in those additional plate appearances. I do expect them to bring his average down, though, so I figure his '09 campaign to closely resemble his '08 version in overall value.
9. Mike Napoli, Anaheim Angels—39 runs, 20 HRs, 49 RBI, 7 SBs, .273 average
Napoli put up pretty incredible numbers in just 227 ABs. But he slides down here because he is also already banged up and, like Shoppach, I don't expect his production to last over 162 games.
It might look odd because Napoli would seem to have a better mix of average, power, and speed. However, he's also got three years of basically the same production. That makes the lack in increase of AB's most troubling.
Napoli's numbers did increase in 2008 more drastically than in previous years so look for him to see some extra time. But only if he can stay healthy and, even then, it doesn't seem to be a lock.
10. Benjie Molina, San Francisco Giants—46 runs, 16 HRs, 95 RBI, 0 SBs, .292 average
It kills me to do this to one of my guys, but even I wouldn't draft Big Money.
I'm actually being generous keeping him this high. Molina is probably the Giants' most threatening hitter, but that's more a statement about the rest of the team than it is one about Benjie.
He put up arguably the best year of his career at the age of 34 and he finished as the 195th ranked player in the Yahoo game. Molina finished 2008 behind Jose Guillen, Mike Aviles, Ryan Theriot, and Christian Guzman.
And that's your best case scenario. Ugh.
11. Jorge Posada, New York Yankees—18 runs, 3 HRs, 22 RBI, 0 SBs, .268 average
I have to include Posada as draftable simply because he hits in the New York Yankees' lineup. That alone should be good for some big numbers if he can stay healthy (see a common theme?).
Of course, Jorge will be 38 in August and that's old for almost any position. For catcher, it's freakin' ancient.
With Mark Teixeira aboard at first base and Hideki Matsui unable to play the field for at least the first half, there wouldn't seem to be any place to put Posada to spare him the abuse of catching.
And what if his shoulder doesn't rebound? What if he physically can't play behind the plate? Then his only ABs will come in a platoon with Matsui at designated hitter while spelling Tex on occasion.
Not great circumstances under which to try to recapture the glory of youth for anyone.
Fliers—Matt Wieters (Baltimore Orioles), Taylor Teagarden (Texas Rangers), Jared Saltalamacchia (Rangers), Pablo Sandoval (Giants), Jeff Clement (Seattle Mariners), Dioner Navarro (Tampa Bay Rays)
The fliers at catcher are the defintion of the term. As my fliers will tend to be, they're mostly young guys with little or no track record and a ton of potential. Any name on that list (with the possible exception of Navarro) could become a 20 homer/.300 hitter if you believe what certain scouts say.
The string attached is they're trying to learn the toughest gig in the Show and Major League pitching all at once. Salty and Clement have both shown it's a difficult thing to do.
Wieters seems to be a lock to do it eventually, but this is his first year and he may be kept in the minors to delay arbitration. Sandoval is the other intriguing name because he sprays frozen ropes all over the yard plus he'll be playing mostly third (or first if Plan A falls apart).
Next up...first base.
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