"Families are always rising and falling in America. But, I believe, we ought to examine more closely the how and why of it, which in the end revolves around life and how you live it."—Nathaniel Hawthorne
In a way, it's a shame that Leonardo DiCaprio got his lips around Hawthorne's words (or most of them) in "The Departed." Now the line sounds pop-y and trite instead of astute and profound. In truth, the latter two adjectives describe them much more accurately than the former.
Oh well.
On the other hand, it's a good bet LeBron James has heard them now. If not for Martin Scorsese's Oscar-winner, maybe King James would never've know them—I certainly wouldn't have and I spent four years in college.
Of course, hearing them and heeding them are two different things.
And let's hope LeBron heeds them because that would mean re-upping with the Cleveland Caveliers.
Fox Sports' Randy Hill recently wrote an article about how good the Chosen One already is and how much room there still is for improvement. It's a fantastic piece and terrifying if you currently play in the National Basketball Association (or have aspirations of doing so in the near future). My favorite part is where the author compares being defended by the 24-year old phenom to being defended by a "mountain lion with tattoos." That's awesome—and appropriate.
Have you SEEN LeBron James recently? Dear God, those shoulders are closing in on Karl Malone territory.
But, at the end, one NBA scout articulates what seems to be on everyone's mind. That is, imagine King James upgrading empires, trading Cleveland for America's Emerald City—New York. Imagine his numbers in the Knickerbockers' new, high-flying system under Mike D'Antoni. Imagine the ad-revenue and marketability. Imagine the battles with the Boston Celtics.
Imagine the untold riches for all involved.
Mr. Hill and the scout are hardly the only perpetrators floating this idea.
To all these dreamers, I have this to say: imagine if he stays in Cleveland.
The thing is, Hawthorne's concept applies to everything in America—individuals, groups, towns, cities, States, etc.—not just families. There was a time when Washington D.C. didn't exist. When Philadelphia was our Nation's capital. There was a time when Boston was the center of commerce and culture while New York City was considered merely dirty and over-crowded. Chicago was once just a meat-packing center. San Francisco was just a dusty port until it wasn't.
Los Angeles wasn't even anything. Only desert.
Obviously, one man cannot turn Cleveland into the Big Apple. But look what Michael Jordan did for the city of Chicago and the Windy City was nowhere near His Airness' place of birth. If LeBron stays in Cleveland and becomes what we all expect him to become, he will do what Air Jordan did for Chicago. And then some.
LeBron James will be a god the likes of which we have never seen an athlete become.
If he goes to New York and realizes his potential, he will be just another in a long list of superheroes from Gotham. James would join a tremendous group of legends, a luminous bunch that includes Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio, Yogi Berra, Reggie Jackson, Derek Jeter, Walt Frazier, Earl "The Pearl" Monroe, Jerry Lucas, Bill Bradley, Patrick Ewing, Willis Reed, Joe Namath, and Lawrence Taylor.
Those are some incredible names, but it makes for a crowded Mount Olympus.
In Cleveland, King James would reign supreme. And alone.
Otto Graham? Waaaaay too long ago. Jim Brown? Career was too short. Art Modell? OK, that was a cheap shot. Mark Price? Larry Nance? Brad Daugherty? Incidentally, can someone please explain how Brad Daugherty is doing NASCAR commentary and nobody talks about this. I just have this image in my mind of the race going on as this giant Daugherty straddles the track with mic in hand.
Anyway, the above are all fine players and had great careers. But you get the idea.
And, with all due respect to the Cleveland Indians, the best your franchise can offer are some Hall-of-Famers from a time before movies became talkies.
Sure, the dollars would be bigger in NYC since LeBron could essentially live on Madison Avenue. But how much bigger can the dollars really get. This is a kid—literally a teenager—who signed a $90 million contract the day he graduated from high school. By the time 2010 rolls around, he will have banked more than $70 million from his first two NBA contracts. James also has endorsement deals with Coke, Microsoft, State Farm, and Upper Deck to name a few.
More importantly, it looks like James understands the significance of this influx of riches. It seems he understands that, while millions are great, all that cash is the seed of something more enduring. In LeBron Incorporated, what we all may be witnessing is the next American transgenerational financial empire being built.
Think Getty, Carnegie, and Guggenheim.
It won't happen overnight, but all those millions (used wisely) will mutate into an obscenity of financial security. And they'll have a lot more company soon. All his contracts are set to expire sometime around 2010—not just his NBA one. Wealthier ones are on their way.
New endorsement opportunities will surface and that's true whether he stays in Cleveland or takes his show on the road.
In the modern world, where the Internet connects everything and information moves at digital speeds, there is no longer a pressing need to be physically located at the hub. Furthermore, LeBron James is becoming the kind of transcendental figure that creates a new hub wherever he is.
As Hawthorne points out, the rise and fall is not about where you live. It is about how.
LeBron James seems to have the 'how' already. So let's hope he realizes it isn't about the 'where.'
Monday, January 19, 2009
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Peyton Manning's Playoff Performance: By the Numbers
A very interesting observation was brought to my attention by a poster here on Bleacher Report. I recently wrote an article arguing that there is a stronger resemblance between the careers of Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning than there is between those of Manning and Tom Brady. Most of the posters disagreed, some strongly.
But one poster, a B/R newbie named John Ortiz, put into numerical form the problem that I and many others have with the elder Manning.
Mr. Ortiz fired the opening salvo in a statistical attack on Peyton's postseason performance.
Since some people—for whom I have a good deal of respect—still defend Peyton Manning's place amongst the National Football League quarterback glitterati, I'm gonna follow John's introduction to its conclusion. Partly because I want to see if I'm justified, partly because I want to see if I can change anyone's mind.
If you're a Peyton Manning fan, it's probably gonna be a bumpy ride. Nothing personal.
First, the raw data (more recent games first):
The good, bad, and the ugly come together to paint a rather pretty final picture for the 15 game stretch—4207 yards on 348 completions in 565 attempts for a 61.6 completion percentage, 22 touchdowns, 17 interceptions, a 7.4 yards per attempt average, and a final QB rating of 84.9.
Like I said, that's a pretty picture except for the record (7-8).
But it's misleading upon closer inspection (this is where John must take some credit as it's something I ignored the first time around). Check out what happens to Peyton's totals if you remove just the two games against the Denver Broncos: 299 for 506, 3373 yards, 59.1 completion percentage, 13 TDs, 16 INTs, 6.7 yards per attempt, and the QB rating drops to 74.5.
That sounds suspiciously mediocre in 13 games against anyone but Denver. And the record drops to 5-8.
Let's look at it from a different angle. Check out what happens if you look just at Manning's road playoff contests: 143 for 254, 1590 yards, 56.3 completion percentage, six TDs, nine INTs, 6.3 yards per attempt, and a QB rating of 68.2 in seven games.
Again, suspiciously mediocre if not downright bad. And the record is horrible at 2-5.
What does it all mean? Conclusively? Nothing.
But it's heavy circumstantial evidence that Peyton Manning in the most important games isn't even as good as his line would indicate. Take away a single opponent that seems to match-up very poorly with the Indianapolis Colts' offense and his stat line suffers significantly.
If you take away the security of homefield advantage and a compliant crowd, the numbers get even worse.
Now I'm no stat guy, but Peyton's posse hangs its hat on the numbers because Manning's win-loss record in the postseason is already vulnerable. In other words, I'm speaking to his supporters in their own language.
And I'm speaking clearly.
Those special quarterbacks, who belong in the discussion of best ever, were special because their performance was not dependent on opponent or surroundings. With everything on the line, they rose to the occasion and found a deeper resolve when facing long odds. Sure, they had a bad game here or there, but it was without rhyme or reason—just an inexplicable off day.
That doesn't seem to be the case with Manning.
Put him in the playoffs against a team missing 'Denver Broncos' from the jersey or in a hostile environment. The result is a mediocre quarterback. That means there's a book on beating him, a blueprint.
Anyone know how to make Joe Montana mediocre with the season on the line? How about Tom Brady? What about Steve Young (OK, anyone outside Dallas)?
Peyton Manning is most certainly a great QB and an automatic Hall-of-Famer. He is almost without doubt the greatest regular season quarterback of all-time. But he is no better than average in the playoffs.
By numbers or by record.
Until either changes, you simply can't make the argument.
Until the latter changes, you won't convince me.
But one poster, a B/R newbie named John Ortiz, put into numerical form the problem that I and many others have with the elder Manning.
Mr. Ortiz fired the opening salvo in a statistical attack on Peyton's postseason performance.
Since some people—for whom I have a good deal of respect—still defend Peyton Manning's place amongst the National Football League quarterback glitterati, I'm gonna follow John's introduction to its conclusion. Partly because I want to see if I'm justified, partly because I want to see if I can change anyone's mind.
If you're a Peyton Manning fan, it's probably gonna be a bumpy ride. Nothing personal.
First, the raw data (more recent games first):
| Week | Opp | Score | Comp | Att | Yds | TD | INT | Comp. % | QB Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wild Card | L | @ SDG | 17-23 | 25 | 42 | 310 | 1 | 0 | 59.5 | 90.4 |
| Division | L | SDG | 24-28 | 33 | 48 | 402 | 3 | 2 | 68.8 | 97.7 |
| Wild Card | W | KC | 23-8 | 30 | 38 | 268 | 1 | 3 | 78.9 | 71.9 |
| Division | W | @ BAL | 15-6 | 15 | 30 | 170 | 0 | 2 | 50.0 | 39.6 |
| AFC Champ | W | NE | 38-34 | 27 | 47 | 349 | 1 | 1 | 57.4 | 79.1 |
| Super Bowl | W | CHI | 29-17 | 25 | 38 | 247 | 1 | 1 | 65.8 | 81.8 |
| Division | L | PIT | 18-21 | 22 | 38 | 290 | 1 | 0 | 57.9 | 90.9 |
| Wild Card | W | DEN | 49-24 | 27 | 33 | 457 | 4 | 1 | 81.8 | 145.7 |
| Division | L | @ NE | 3-20 | 27 | 42 | 238 | 0 | 1 | 64.3 | 69.3 |
| Wild Card | W | DEN | 41-10 | 22 | 26 | 377 | 5 | 0 | 84.6 | 158.3 |
| Division | W | @ KC | 38-31 | 22 | 30 | 304 | 3 | 0 | 73.3 | 138.7 |
| AFC Champ | L | @ NE | 14-24 | 23 | 47 | 237 | 1 | 4 | 48.9 | 35.5 |
| Wild Card | L | @ NYJ | 0-41 | 14 | 31 | 137 | 0 | 2 | 45.2 | 31.2 |
| Wild Card | L | @ MIA | 17-23 | 17 | 32 | 194 | 1 | 0 | 53.1 | 82.0 |
| Division | L | TEN | 16-19 | 19 | 43 | 227 | 0 | 0 | 44.2 | 60.9 |
The good, bad, and the ugly come together to paint a rather pretty final picture for the 15 game stretch—4207 yards on 348 completions in 565 attempts for a 61.6 completion percentage, 22 touchdowns, 17 interceptions, a 7.4 yards per attempt average, and a final QB rating of 84.9.
Like I said, that's a pretty picture except for the record (7-8).
But it's misleading upon closer inspection (this is where John must take some credit as it's something I ignored the first time around). Check out what happens to Peyton's totals if you remove just the two games against the Denver Broncos: 299 for 506, 3373 yards, 59.1 completion percentage, 13 TDs, 16 INTs, 6.7 yards per attempt, and the QB rating drops to 74.5.
That sounds suspiciously mediocre in 13 games against anyone but Denver. And the record drops to 5-8.
Let's look at it from a different angle. Check out what happens if you look just at Manning's road playoff contests: 143 for 254, 1590 yards, 56.3 completion percentage, six TDs, nine INTs, 6.3 yards per attempt, and a QB rating of 68.2 in seven games.
Again, suspiciously mediocre if not downright bad. And the record is horrible at 2-5.
What does it all mean? Conclusively? Nothing.
But it's heavy circumstantial evidence that Peyton Manning in the most important games isn't even as good as his line would indicate. Take away a single opponent that seems to match-up very poorly with the Indianapolis Colts' offense and his stat line suffers significantly.
If you take away the security of homefield advantage and a compliant crowd, the numbers get even worse.
Now I'm no stat guy, but Peyton's posse hangs its hat on the numbers because Manning's win-loss record in the postseason is already vulnerable. In other words, I'm speaking to his supporters in their own language.
And I'm speaking clearly.
Those special quarterbacks, who belong in the discussion of best ever, were special because their performance was not dependent on opponent or surroundings. With everything on the line, they rose to the occasion and found a deeper resolve when facing long odds. Sure, they had a bad game here or there, but it was without rhyme or reason—just an inexplicable off day.
That doesn't seem to be the case with Manning.
Put him in the playoffs against a team missing 'Denver Broncos' from the jersey or in a hostile environment. The result is a mediocre quarterback. That means there's a book on beating him, a blueprint.
Anyone know how to make Joe Montana mediocre with the season on the line? How about Tom Brady? What about Steve Young (OK, anyone outside Dallas)?
Peyton Manning is most certainly a great QB and an automatic Hall-of-Famer. He is almost without doubt the greatest regular season quarterback of all-time. But he is no better than average in the playoffs.
By numbers or by record.
Until either changes, you simply can't make the argument.
Until the latter changes, you won't convince me.
Friday, January 16, 2009
San Francisco Giants in 2009: Fighting the Rise in Expectation
I'm fighting it, I really am. But it's getting harder and harder to resist the urge to give in. The San Francisco Giants have made a fool of me so many times recently, yet I'm beginning to believe in them again. Like I said, I'm trying to keep it on the level. The problem is that their offseason keeps getting shinier and shinier as the rest of the division continues to hang in suspended animation.
To say that this isn't exactly new territory would be generous. I've written not once, but twice before on this very subject (and I've mentioned it obliquely several thousand other times).
Some of it's shock. Some's confusion. And some's excitement.
I'm shocked that the rest of the clubs have done so little to replace some considerable losses. I'm confused because the stasis makes no sense considering how weak the National League West has been recently. I'm excited because, the longer it lasts, the better the Giants' chances become of grabbing the pennant that's just sitting there for the taking.
Well, don't look now sports fans. But, not only is the deep freeze still clamping down on the Senior Circuit's left-most division, it seems to be getting icier.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have already officially lost Derek Lowe, Takashi Saito, and Brad Penny. They just cut ties with Andruw Jones, which means they'll probably pay him $18+ million in 2009 to ride the pine for another squad (here's an idea: it'd only cost the Giants $400K and maybe he'd come to camp motivated). Additionally, the Bums figure to lose Jeff Kent, Nomar Garciaparra, and Joe Biemel.
To counter these losses, LA has brought in Mark Loretta and re-signed Rafeal Furcal as well as Casey Blake. The boys from Chavez Ravine remain the odds on favorites to re-land Manny Ramirez.
I'm still not impressed.
The San Diego Padres, 2008's cellar-dweller in the NL West, had almost nowhere to go but up.
Almost.
The Padres have managed to find a little more air to let out of the tank. Khalil Greene will be lacing 'em up for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2009. Trevor Hoffman will be in a Milwaukee Brewer uniform. The response? SD signed David Eckstein and are rumored to be interested in Omar Vizquel. Wow, talk about a soft middle infield. Those guys probably wouldn't manage five homeruns combined.
And forget about help via a trade.
The only rumor involving SD has Jake Peavy departing for talent that won't be Major League Baseball ready for a year or two (if not three).
Not only that, the owner is trotting out some nonsense about his divorce and subsequent financial difficulties as his defense. It appears his marital discord and dissolution will prohibit the Fathers from seeking any celestial help through the wire.
See, this is the reason you can't really dislike San Diego baseball fans. No matter how great their offenses, there are still so many more/better reasons to pity them.
Nothing much has changed since last I addressed the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies.
Arizona still sits on its hands as Brandon Lyon, Juan Cruz, Orlando Hudson, and Adam Dunn all languish on the wire. Folks in Mile Hile Country still await a rebuttal to Matt Holliday's exodus although Brian Fuentes is now officially a memory (not that he was still necessary with Huston Street and Manny Corpas in residence).
Oh, and the Rox brought in Jason Marquis.
Again, yawn.
When the Orange and Black signed Randy Johnson, I was a little skeptical about San Francisco's chances. But then I warmed to the idea. As time passed and the silence from the rest of the division grew deafening, I warmed a little more. But I never gave over completely because I knew the flurry of activity was coming.
Pitchers and catchers report in 28 days and, still, nothing. Just more regression.
So, yeah, I'm fighting it.
And I've never before enjoyed getting my ass whipped so thoroughly.
To say that this isn't exactly new territory would be generous. I've written not once, but twice before on this very subject (and I've mentioned it obliquely several thousand other times).
Some of it's shock. Some's confusion. And some's excitement.
I'm shocked that the rest of the clubs have done so little to replace some considerable losses. I'm confused because the stasis makes no sense considering how weak the National League West has been recently. I'm excited because, the longer it lasts, the better the Giants' chances become of grabbing the pennant that's just sitting there for the taking.
Well, don't look now sports fans. But, not only is the deep freeze still clamping down on the Senior Circuit's left-most division, it seems to be getting icier.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have already officially lost Derek Lowe, Takashi Saito, and Brad Penny. They just cut ties with Andruw Jones, which means they'll probably pay him $18+ million in 2009 to ride the pine for another squad (here's an idea: it'd only cost the Giants $400K and maybe he'd come to camp motivated). Additionally, the Bums figure to lose Jeff Kent, Nomar Garciaparra, and Joe Biemel.
To counter these losses, LA has brought in Mark Loretta and re-signed Rafeal Furcal as well as Casey Blake. The boys from Chavez Ravine remain the odds on favorites to re-land Manny Ramirez.
I'm still not impressed.
The San Diego Padres, 2008's cellar-dweller in the NL West, had almost nowhere to go but up.
Almost.
The Padres have managed to find a little more air to let out of the tank. Khalil Greene will be lacing 'em up for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2009. Trevor Hoffman will be in a Milwaukee Brewer uniform. The response? SD signed David Eckstein and are rumored to be interested in Omar Vizquel. Wow, talk about a soft middle infield. Those guys probably wouldn't manage five homeruns combined.
And forget about help via a trade.
The only rumor involving SD has Jake Peavy departing for talent that won't be Major League Baseball ready for a year or two (if not three).
Not only that, the owner is trotting out some nonsense about his divorce and subsequent financial difficulties as his defense. It appears his marital discord and dissolution will prohibit the Fathers from seeking any celestial help through the wire.
See, this is the reason you can't really dislike San Diego baseball fans. No matter how great their offenses, there are still so many more/better reasons to pity them.
Nothing much has changed since last I addressed the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies.
Arizona still sits on its hands as Brandon Lyon, Juan Cruz, Orlando Hudson, and Adam Dunn all languish on the wire. Folks in Mile Hile Country still await a rebuttal to Matt Holliday's exodus although Brian Fuentes is now officially a memory (not that he was still necessary with Huston Street and Manny Corpas in residence).
Oh, and the Rox brought in Jason Marquis.
Again, yawn.
When the Orange and Black signed Randy Johnson, I was a little skeptical about San Francisco's chances. But then I warmed to the idea. As time passed and the silence from the rest of the division grew deafening, I warmed a little more. But I never gave over completely because I knew the flurry of activity was coming.
Pitchers and catchers report in 28 days and, still, nothing. Just more regression.
So, yeah, I'm fighting it.
And I've never before enjoyed getting my ass whipped so thoroughly.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Welcome to the NFL Playoffs, Where the Children Are the Future (and Present Apparently)
Football is a brutal sport. The National Football League is its premiere stage, where the game is played at its highest level by its finest combatants. This is the that League gave us the Steel Curtain, the Purple People Eaters, the Fearsome Foursome, Gang Green (the real one, not the New York Jets), the Orange Crush, and the Monsters of the Midway.
Everyone knows this is a man's game.
Everyone except the kids from the 2008 NFL Draft. Just who the hell do they think they are?
Take a look around and you'll be impressed.
You'll see guys like Matt Forte, who led the Chicago Bears in rushing and re-established an offensive foundation on which the team can build. You'll see Steve Slayton, who led the Houston Texans in rushing and gave them their first consistently effective compliment to Andre Johnson. You'll see Jerod Mayo, who led the 11-5 New England Patriots in tackles while the team finished tied atop the American Football Conference East (we all know a tie-breaker sent them home for the winter). You'll see Eddie Royal, who gave the Denver Broncos a second fiddle to play with Brandon Marshall.
And those are just some guys from teams that couldn't even manage to qualify for the postseason.
What's that you say? I'm insane to expect a bunch of kids in their early 20s to contribute to a contender in their first year? What a ridiculous standard against which to measure rookies?
Well, it wasn't a problem for Antoine Cason.
Cason managed 74 tackles (59 solo and 15 assisted), forced a fumble, intercepted two passes, returned one pick 59 yards for a touchdown, and defended seven passes for the San Diego Chargers (who won the AFC West and survived until the AFC divisional round). Four of those defended passes and his first INT came in the first three weeks. Translation? Opposing coaches and quarterbacks learned quickly not to test the young dynamo.
It wasn't a problem for Jonathan Stewart.
Stewart rushed for 836 yards on 184 carries for a 4.5 yards per attempt average. He scored 10 TDs, only lost one fumble, and did it all for the Carolina Panthers (a team that won the highly competitive National Football Conference South and secured a first-round bye). You could argue Stewart's young legs allowed DeAngelo Williams to stay fresh and have a break-out campaign. Oh, and Jonathan threw in 15 kick returns, 349 yards, and a 23.3 yards per return average just for good measure.
It wasn't a problem for Chris Johnson.
Johnson—apparently the fastest man in the NFL—led the Tennessee Titans with 1228 yards on 251 rushes for 4.9 yards per carry. While playing on the NFL's last unbeaten team and the AFC's top seed, he scored nine touchdowns, only lost a single fumble, and was valuable enough to garner a vote for the NFL's Most Valuable Player.
It wasn't a problem for Matt Ryan.
The young QB led the Atlanta Falcons to a Wild Card berth by throwing for 3440 yards on 265 completions in 434 attempts. That's a cool 61.1 completion percentage and 7.93 yards per attempt for a kid in his first year in football's most sophisticated environment. Toss in 16 TDs against 11 INTs and the final tally is a 87.7 QB rating that resurrected a fatally-wounded franchise (cough, Mike Vick).
Of course, these clowns are all done. Each one's 2008-2009 NFL season is dead and buried. What a bunch of losers.
You might think it's harsh to call these standouts from the 2008 NFL Draft chumps. You might think it's impossible to do anything more than what the aforementioned rooks have done. Ordinarily, you'd be right.
Ordinarily.
But if there's one thing painfully obvious about that particular draft class, it's that there's nothing ordinary about it. In this instance, it's no different.
Because there are four rookies still playing. Four rookies whose excellence still burns after all the others' flickering brilliance has been extinguished. At least one will play in the Super Bowl:
Tim Hightower—Arizona Cardinals
Hightower took over for Edgerrin James after a Week Eight loss to the Panthers and the team promptly went on to win four of its next six games, clinching the NFC West and a home playoff game in the process. His stats won't blow you away, but he did manage to score 10 TDs in Arizona's heavily pass-oriented attack without ever losing a fumble.
In the first playoff game hosted by Arizona since the Earth cooled, Hightower only rushed for 23 yards on six carries, but he did register the team's lone rushing score against Atlanta. In the stunning road victory against the second-seeded Panthers (the team that arguably ushered in the Tim Hightower Era in 'Zona), Tim rumbled for 76 yards on 17 carries and caught a score as the Cardinals advanced to the NFC Championship game.
Not too shabby for a fifth round pick.
DeSean Jackson—Philadelphia Eagles
OK, so DeSean's year got off to a rough start with that "too cool for school" premature drop on what should have been a touchdown. Remember, these are young kids and they're excited (maybe not too bright as well).
Regardless, he's atoned for that mistake and then some. Jackson has become the Eagles' leading receiver, most dangerous deep threat, and the kind of playmaker that Donovan McNabb has so sorely missed for most of his Philly tenure. He's put up some pretty stellar numbers in the process—62 catches for 912 yard (14.7 yards per catch), two TDs and no fumbles to go with 50 punt returns that netted 440 yards (8.8 yards per return) and included a 68-yard return for six.
DeSean's playoff career has mimicked his regular season one—getting off to a rough start with only one catch for 34 yards, although he did contribute five punt returns for 109 yards (21.8 yards per return) that included a 62-yard effort to set up the Iggles' first points.
But against the hated New York Giants, in blustery New Jersey winds, Jackson turned in a fine day—four catches for 81 yards (you do the math) including a 48-yard bomb that was effectively the nail in the G-men's coffin.
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie—Arizona Cardinals
Whoever orchestrated the Cardinals' draft deserves a big, fat raise. The only flaw in Rodgers-Cromartie's game is that criminally-awkward, polysyllabic travesty of a last name. I'm calling him Dr. Cover from now on (DRC = Dr. C + he's a cornerback = Dr. Cover).
The good doctor put up some pretty gaudy numbers in his first year—42 tackles, 38 solo, 4 assisted, 19 passes defended, 4 interceptions, and one pick returned 99 yards for six. Of course, that was all in the regular season. Apparently, he was just getting warmed up.
Dr. Cover saved his best work for the postseason. In the Wild Card Round against the Falcons, he registered a team-high 10 tackles (9 solo, 1 assisted), defended two passes, and punished his fellow rookie with an interception. In the divisional round against Carolina, he only made a single solo tackle.
Of course, Dominique did defend four passes, shutdown one of the NFL's elite receivers (Steve Smith), and intercepted a pass at the goalline. That's decent.
Joe Flacco—Baltimore Ravens
In one of the most impressive years for NFL rookies that I have ever seen, possibly that anyone has ever seen, a young man from Delaware (look, we're in...Delaware) has emerged head-and-shoulders above the rest.
Although Matt Ryan won Offensive Rookie of the Year, Flacco is the only first-year player still standing behind center. He is the pilot of the Baltimore Ravens' offense, the leader on one side of the ball for a team that is preparing to face the Pittsburgh Steelers for a third time this year. This time, though, it's in the AFC Championship game.
No, Flacco's numbers won't blow your skirt up—257 for 428, 2971 yards, 60.0 completion percentage, 6.94 yards per attempt, 14 TDs, 12 INT, five rushing scores, no lost fumbles, and a QB rating of 80.3. Those aren't fantastic stats, but they're certainly not bad.
Nor has his play greatly changed in the postseason.
Against the Miami Dolphins, Flacco took to the air for 135 yards on nine of 23 passing with no TDs or turnovers (he did cross the goalline on the ground, however). Against the Titans' vicious and well-rested defense, he went 11 of 22 (again, you do the math) for 161 yards, a touchdown, and no turnovers.
Again, nothing jaw-dropping in there. On the surface.
Look closer and you'll see the rushing score against the Dolphins proved to be the winning margin. You'll see several laser throws on the final drive against the Titans that produced the winning field goal. You'll see a rookie QB that won two road playoff games in his first rodeo.
Joe Flacco is the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to win two playoff games and he did it on the road. Whoa.
But look even closer.
You'll see a young, first-time signal-caller who is doing what he needs to win big games on the strength of strong defense and timely offense. You'll see confidence and poise getting the job done with mostly spare parts and a dazzling arm. You'll see a kid who nobody expected to even see on the field, let alone taking snaps as the starter.
You'll see an eerily close approximation of another young QB who rose from football purgatory to take the reins and lead his team to a Super Bowl victory. And then another. And then another.
I'm not saying that's where Joey Flacco will end up.
But I am saying he's off to a pretty good start.
Just like it is for so many of his 2008 NFL Draft class contemporaries, the future has already arrived for Joe Flacco.
Everyone knows this is a man's game.
Everyone except the kids from the 2008 NFL Draft. Just who the hell do they think they are?
Take a look around and you'll be impressed.
You'll see guys like Matt Forte, who led the Chicago Bears in rushing and re-established an offensive foundation on which the team can build. You'll see Steve Slayton, who led the Houston Texans in rushing and gave them their first consistently effective compliment to Andre Johnson. You'll see Jerod Mayo, who led the 11-5 New England Patriots in tackles while the team finished tied atop the American Football Conference East (we all know a tie-breaker sent them home for the winter). You'll see Eddie Royal, who gave the Denver Broncos a second fiddle to play with Brandon Marshall.
And those are just some guys from teams that couldn't even manage to qualify for the postseason.
What's that you say? I'm insane to expect a bunch of kids in their early 20s to contribute to a contender in their first year? What a ridiculous standard against which to measure rookies?
Well, it wasn't a problem for Antoine Cason.
Cason managed 74 tackles (59 solo and 15 assisted), forced a fumble, intercepted two passes, returned one pick 59 yards for a touchdown, and defended seven passes for the San Diego Chargers (who won the AFC West and survived until the AFC divisional round). Four of those defended passes and his first INT came in the first three weeks. Translation? Opposing coaches and quarterbacks learned quickly not to test the young dynamo.
It wasn't a problem for Jonathan Stewart.
Stewart rushed for 836 yards on 184 carries for a 4.5 yards per attempt average. He scored 10 TDs, only lost one fumble, and did it all for the Carolina Panthers (a team that won the highly competitive National Football Conference South and secured a first-round bye). You could argue Stewart's young legs allowed DeAngelo Williams to stay fresh and have a break-out campaign. Oh, and Jonathan threw in 15 kick returns, 349 yards, and a 23.3 yards per return average just for good measure.
It wasn't a problem for Chris Johnson.
Johnson—apparently the fastest man in the NFL—led the Tennessee Titans with 1228 yards on 251 rushes for 4.9 yards per carry. While playing on the NFL's last unbeaten team and the AFC's top seed, he scored nine touchdowns, only lost a single fumble, and was valuable enough to garner a vote for the NFL's Most Valuable Player.
It wasn't a problem for Matt Ryan.
The young QB led the Atlanta Falcons to a Wild Card berth by throwing for 3440 yards on 265 completions in 434 attempts. That's a cool 61.1 completion percentage and 7.93 yards per attempt for a kid in his first year in football's most sophisticated environment. Toss in 16 TDs against 11 INTs and the final tally is a 87.7 QB rating that resurrected a fatally-wounded franchise (cough, Mike Vick).
Of course, these clowns are all done. Each one's 2008-2009 NFL season is dead and buried. What a bunch of losers.
You might think it's harsh to call these standouts from the 2008 NFL Draft chumps. You might think it's impossible to do anything more than what the aforementioned rooks have done. Ordinarily, you'd be right.
Ordinarily.
But if there's one thing painfully obvious about that particular draft class, it's that there's nothing ordinary about it. In this instance, it's no different.
Because there are four rookies still playing. Four rookies whose excellence still burns after all the others' flickering brilliance has been extinguished. At least one will play in the Super Bowl:
Tim Hightower—Arizona Cardinals
Hightower took over for Edgerrin James after a Week Eight loss to the Panthers and the team promptly went on to win four of its next six games, clinching the NFC West and a home playoff game in the process. His stats won't blow you away, but he did manage to score 10 TDs in Arizona's heavily pass-oriented attack without ever losing a fumble.
In the first playoff game hosted by Arizona since the Earth cooled, Hightower only rushed for 23 yards on six carries, but he did register the team's lone rushing score against Atlanta. In the stunning road victory against the second-seeded Panthers (the team that arguably ushered in the Tim Hightower Era in 'Zona), Tim rumbled for 76 yards on 17 carries and caught a score as the Cardinals advanced to the NFC Championship game.
Not too shabby for a fifth round pick.
DeSean Jackson—Philadelphia Eagles
OK, so DeSean's year got off to a rough start with that "too cool for school" premature drop on what should have been a touchdown. Remember, these are young kids and they're excited (maybe not too bright as well).
Regardless, he's atoned for that mistake and then some. Jackson has become the Eagles' leading receiver, most dangerous deep threat, and the kind of playmaker that Donovan McNabb has so sorely missed for most of his Philly tenure. He's put up some pretty stellar numbers in the process—62 catches for 912 yard (14.7 yards per catch), two TDs and no fumbles to go with 50 punt returns that netted 440 yards (8.8 yards per return) and included a 68-yard return for six.
DeSean's playoff career has mimicked his regular season one—getting off to a rough start with only one catch for 34 yards, although he did contribute five punt returns for 109 yards (21.8 yards per return) that included a 62-yard effort to set up the Iggles' first points.
But against the hated New York Giants, in blustery New Jersey winds, Jackson turned in a fine day—four catches for 81 yards (you do the math) including a 48-yard bomb that was effectively the nail in the G-men's coffin.
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie—Arizona Cardinals
Whoever orchestrated the Cardinals' draft deserves a big, fat raise. The only flaw in Rodgers-Cromartie's game is that criminally-awkward, polysyllabic travesty of a last name. I'm calling him Dr. Cover from now on (DRC = Dr. C + he's a cornerback = Dr. Cover).
The good doctor put up some pretty gaudy numbers in his first year—42 tackles, 38 solo, 4 assisted, 19 passes defended, 4 interceptions, and one pick returned 99 yards for six. Of course, that was all in the regular season. Apparently, he was just getting warmed up.
Dr. Cover saved his best work for the postseason. In the Wild Card Round against the Falcons, he registered a team-high 10 tackles (9 solo, 1 assisted), defended two passes, and punished his fellow rookie with an interception. In the divisional round against Carolina, he only made a single solo tackle.
Of course, Dominique did defend four passes, shutdown one of the NFL's elite receivers (Steve Smith), and intercepted a pass at the goalline. That's decent.
Joe Flacco—Baltimore Ravens
In one of the most impressive years for NFL rookies that I have ever seen, possibly that anyone has ever seen, a young man from Delaware (look, we're in...Delaware) has emerged head-and-shoulders above the rest.
Although Matt Ryan won Offensive Rookie of the Year, Flacco is the only first-year player still standing behind center. He is the pilot of the Baltimore Ravens' offense, the leader on one side of the ball for a team that is preparing to face the Pittsburgh Steelers for a third time this year. This time, though, it's in the AFC Championship game.
No, Flacco's numbers won't blow your skirt up—257 for 428, 2971 yards, 60.0 completion percentage, 6.94 yards per attempt, 14 TDs, 12 INT, five rushing scores, no lost fumbles, and a QB rating of 80.3. Those aren't fantastic stats, but they're certainly not bad.
Nor has his play greatly changed in the postseason.
Against the Miami Dolphins, Flacco took to the air for 135 yards on nine of 23 passing with no TDs or turnovers (he did cross the goalline on the ground, however). Against the Titans' vicious and well-rested defense, he went 11 of 22 (again, you do the math) for 161 yards, a touchdown, and no turnovers.
Again, nothing jaw-dropping in there. On the surface.
Look closer and you'll see the rushing score against the Dolphins proved to be the winning margin. You'll see several laser throws on the final drive against the Titans that produced the winning field goal. You'll see a rookie QB that won two road playoff games in his first rodeo.
Joe Flacco is the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to win two playoff games and he did it on the road. Whoa.
But look even closer.
You'll see a young, first-time signal-caller who is doing what he needs to win big games on the strength of strong defense and timely offense. You'll see confidence and poise getting the job done with mostly spare parts and a dazzling arm. You'll see a kid who nobody expected to even see on the field, let alone taking snaps as the starter.
You'll see an eerily close approximation of another young QB who rose from football purgatory to take the reins and lead his team to a Super Bowl victory. And then another. And then another.
I'm not saying that's where Joey Flacco will end up.
But I am saying he's off to a pretty good start.
Just like it is for so many of his 2008 NFL Draft class contemporaries, the future has already arrived for Joe Flacco.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
The Dallas Cowboys Offseason Purge: Are There Any Breaks On This Damn Thing?
You know it's a slow day in sports when I'm surfing ESPN's website for some sort of intriguing news.
Well, that's the predicament I found myself in this evening. The National Basketball Association hasn't kicked it into high gear yet, the same could be said about college basketball, Major League Baseball is still a ways away, college football is over, and the National Football League playoffs are down to four teams.
There's just so much dissection of the Arizona Cardinals, Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, and Pittsburgh Steelers I can take.
So I found myself wandering between stories of the Gaza War and the latest MLB free agent whisperings.
Then, I ran across the latest rumblings come out of Camp Werder...I mean Dallas. It's an interesting piece about the possible release of Terrell Owens from yet another anonymous source inside the Cowboy clubhouse. I say interesting although the ending was a little confusing—at the end, it says Ed Werder covers the NFL for ESPN.
So does that mean ESPN considers Dallas the entirety of the NFL? Or does that mean only Dallas is relevant to the NFL? Or does it mean that, as go the Cowboys, so goes the NFL? Whatever.
More importantly, is there anything as reliable as overreaction coming out of Big D?
Look, I'm not always innocent in this regard, but it is hilarious to see the total lack of perspective regarding all things Cowboy on such a frequent and consistent basis. The Cowboys collect a couple talented pieces and immediately become Super Bowl favorites. Then—when they throw a couple rods, sputter down the stretch, and miss the playoffs—it's time to blow the whole thing up.
I may very well be one of Terrell Owens' harshest critics, but I honestly thought Robert Allred's excellent piece on the very subject was a total hypothetical. Not for one second did I think it was an actual course of action being considered by the organization.
Jerry Jones can't really be that stupid, so beholden to public perception and "expert" analysis. Can he?
Like I said, I'm no fan of TO. I haven't been ever since he started rumbling in San Francisco and submarining my 49ers. My antipathy grew when he did the same exact thing to the Iggles in Philly. On both squads, he was a cancer that did more bad than good by the time he was vomited out of town.
There's the rub though.
As much as I dislike Terrell Owens and as tired as I have become of his act, it hasn't resurfaced in Dallas. Yet. Maybe he's making more noise behind closed doors. That doesn't seem likely with Ed Werder lurking in every shadow with his cutting edge surveillance technology.
Not to mention all those deeply embedded and courageous sources whose only defense against vicious reprisal is their cloak of anonymity.
It's a sad statement, but the subtle snipings at Jason Garrett, Tony Romo, and Jason Witten don't come close to the sideshow that got him flushed out of the City and Philadelphia. Furthermore, his production is still elite as is his reputation.
Perhaps both are dropping off, but he'll still be one of the most valuable wide-outs for at least a year or two. Werder's story mentions the Cowboys' concern with the influence Owens has on guys like Marion Barber, Patrick Crayton, and Roy Williams (the wide receiver). I don't believe for a second that a grimy, lunch-pail guy like Barber will listen to a word Owens' is running.
As for Crayton and Williams? The locker-room and off-field influence of TO might not be great, but what about that on-field one? How does Dallas envision those fellas getting open without Terrell drawing the primary defensive eye?
There is no denying that Owens is about as much of an asset to the clubhouse as Barry Bonds was. There's also no denying that Owens has an immeasurable positive impact on the field of (sports) battle. Finally, there's no denying that the 2008 Dallas Cowboys roster needed a strong dose of Drano.
However, that's what makes this "news" from Werder all the more perplexing.
Pacman Jones? Gone.
Tank Johnson? Gone.
That leaves Terrell Owens as the lone offender.
See, the mistake Jerry Jones made was putting so many bad character and/or reputation guys in one closed environment. The three nefarious threads intertwined and created a theme that destroyed the fabric of the squad. But there's only one left.
Plenty of teams exist, even thrive, with one bad apple drawing the media attention while the other sturdy veterans work on the peripherals of the spotlight.
My Niners did it with Deion Sanders. They did it with Ricky Watters. They did it with Bill Romanowski. And they had a good deal of success with Terrell Owens 1.0.
Dallas did it with Michael Irvin.
The Chicago Bears did it with Jim McMahon.
And the list goes on and on. This is football after all. It's a violent game and not all the men who play it are angels. You just can't put too many demons together in one place.
The Cowboys found that out last year. Now, they seem intent on proving just how well they learned it.
Well, that's the predicament I found myself in this evening. The National Basketball Association hasn't kicked it into high gear yet, the same could be said about college basketball, Major League Baseball is still a ways away, college football is over, and the National Football League playoffs are down to four teams.
There's just so much dissection of the Arizona Cardinals, Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, and Pittsburgh Steelers I can take.
So I found myself wandering between stories of the Gaza War and the latest MLB free agent whisperings.
Then, I ran across the latest rumblings come out of Camp Werder...I mean Dallas. It's an interesting piece about the possible release of Terrell Owens from yet another anonymous source inside the Cowboy clubhouse. I say interesting although the ending was a little confusing—at the end, it says Ed Werder covers the NFL for ESPN.
So does that mean ESPN considers Dallas the entirety of the NFL? Or does that mean only Dallas is relevant to the NFL? Or does it mean that, as go the Cowboys, so goes the NFL? Whatever.
More importantly, is there anything as reliable as overreaction coming out of Big D?
Look, I'm not always innocent in this regard, but it is hilarious to see the total lack of perspective regarding all things Cowboy on such a frequent and consistent basis. The Cowboys collect a couple talented pieces and immediately become Super Bowl favorites. Then—when they throw a couple rods, sputter down the stretch, and miss the playoffs—it's time to blow the whole thing up.
I may very well be one of Terrell Owens' harshest critics, but I honestly thought Robert Allred's excellent piece on the very subject was a total hypothetical. Not for one second did I think it was an actual course of action being considered by the organization.
Jerry Jones can't really be that stupid, so beholden to public perception and "expert" analysis. Can he?
Like I said, I'm no fan of TO. I haven't been ever since he started rumbling in San Francisco and submarining my 49ers. My antipathy grew when he did the same exact thing to the Iggles in Philly. On both squads, he was a cancer that did more bad than good by the time he was vomited out of town.
There's the rub though.
As much as I dislike Terrell Owens and as tired as I have become of his act, it hasn't resurfaced in Dallas. Yet. Maybe he's making more noise behind closed doors. That doesn't seem likely with Ed Werder lurking in every shadow with his cutting edge surveillance technology.
Not to mention all those deeply embedded and courageous sources whose only defense against vicious reprisal is their cloak of anonymity.
It's a sad statement, but the subtle snipings at Jason Garrett, Tony Romo, and Jason Witten don't come close to the sideshow that got him flushed out of the City and Philadelphia. Furthermore, his production is still elite as is his reputation.
Perhaps both are dropping off, but he'll still be one of the most valuable wide-outs for at least a year or two. Werder's story mentions the Cowboys' concern with the influence Owens has on guys like Marion Barber, Patrick Crayton, and Roy Williams (the wide receiver). I don't believe for a second that a grimy, lunch-pail guy like Barber will listen to a word Owens' is running.
As for Crayton and Williams? The locker-room and off-field influence of TO might not be great, but what about that on-field one? How does Dallas envision those fellas getting open without Terrell drawing the primary defensive eye?
There is no denying that Owens is about as much of an asset to the clubhouse as Barry Bonds was. There's also no denying that Owens has an immeasurable positive impact on the field of (sports) battle. Finally, there's no denying that the 2008 Dallas Cowboys roster needed a strong dose of Drano.
However, that's what makes this "news" from Werder all the more perplexing.
Pacman Jones? Gone.
Tank Johnson? Gone.
That leaves Terrell Owens as the lone offender.
See, the mistake Jerry Jones made was putting so many bad character and/or reputation guys in one closed environment. The three nefarious threads intertwined and created a theme that destroyed the fabric of the squad. But there's only one left.
Plenty of teams exist, even thrive, with one bad apple drawing the media attention while the other sturdy veterans work on the peripherals of the spotlight.
My Niners did it with Deion Sanders. They did it with Ricky Watters. They did it with Bill Romanowski. And they had a good deal of success with Terrell Owens 1.0.
Dallas did it with Michael Irvin.
The Chicago Bears did it with Jim McMahon.
And the list goes on and on. This is football after all. It's a violent game and not all the men who play it are angels. You just can't put too many demons together in one place.
The Cowboys found that out last year. Now, they seem intent on proving just how well they learned it.
San Francisco Giants Look Good for 2009, and Even Better for 2010
It happens every year. The closer we get to Spring Training, the more I tend to think about the San Francisco Giants and convince myself that this is the year we'll see the boys return to contention. The glory days of 1997 through 2004 are still fresh in my memory so it's no great task.
In 2005 and 2006, the ineptitude of the National League West kept SF "alive" in the playoff picture. But let's be honest—the Giants were built around Barry Lamar Bonds and he was either absent or a shell of himself for most of both years.
Consequently, the Giants were brutal.
Still Bonds had a pulse and that was always enough to begin each season with hope.
After two years of such brutality crushing said hope, I was desperate. Apparently, so was management because Brian Sabean and friends threw the kitchen sink at Barry Zito. We all know how that turned out. Heading into 2007 though, I drank all the Kool-Aid.
It was a bigger park. It was an easier division. Pitchers have to hit in the NL i.e. no designated hitters. I bought it all and headed optimistically into 2007.
Yeah...took a while to recover from that one. About a year.
I had no illusions about 2008. Although Chase Utley said the Aaron Rowand signing wasn't as bad as the experts opined, I wasn't buying it. I'm sure the guy was a good teammate so it made sense for Chase to laud him. The problem, though, was that Rowand in SF would be an offensive centerpiece. Such a role is not where he belongs and, sure enough, the offense produced little with him as one of its main engines.
But, like I said, the shock from 2007 didn't last.
In hindsight, I did underestimate Rowand. He was a defensive stud, a warrior, and better offensively than I expected. Tim Lincecum matured into the dominant pitcher everyone thought he'd be (except he did it in about one season) and won the Cy Young. Bengie Molina made me believe in catchers again; I wouldn't be surprised if half of Big Money's 155 hits came with two outs (OK, I would but you get the point). And Zito continued to show improvement.
So I'm back on board the San Francisco bandwagon, complete with my rose-colored frames and half-full glass o' water.
Except I'm a year older and 2007 made me a bit wiser. My optimism is tempered and that temperance combined with Ken Rosenthal's recent observation about John Lackey allow me to see beyond 2009.
Even if the Giants added one of the bigger bats available on the market, they're still probably be looking at an uphill battle against teams like the Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, and Chicago Cubs. And that's just in the Senior Circuit.
I've already aired my grievances with the three-headed monster taking shape in the American League East.
Not only that, adding a big bat at this stage would almost certainly mean either Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, or the trade of Jonathan Sanchez in a relatively neutral market. All three options would seriously hamper the organization's options moving forward as well as the development of the youngsters that made great strides last year (Freddie Lewis in particular).
My newfound perspective shows me another big move would be too much risk for too little reward.
And that brings me to Rosenthal's article about the post-2009 free agency period.
Ramirez and Dunn are both non-starters in my opinion. Manny comes with too much baggage and Dunn isn't versatile enough while striking out at an obscene clip. But trading Sanchez might be a good move in the right scenario.
What might that look like? Well, a lot like next year's free agency period.
Consider that, after 2009, the following front-end starters are on track to be available:
Josh Beckett
Erik Bedard
Justin Duchscherer
Kelvim Escobar
Rich Harden
John Lackey
Cliff Lee
Brett Myers
Brandon Webb
As Mr. Rosenthal mentions, the top three (Webb, Lee, and Beckett) all have club options that are sure to be exercised. That leaves a relatively underwhelming crop of starters available on the open market, especially considering the free-for-all we just saw this time around.
On the other hand, check out the list of lumber that's available:
Rick Ankiel
Jason Bay
Adrian Beltre
Hank Blalock
Carl Crawford
Chone Figgins
Khalil Greene
Vladimir Guerrero
Matt Holliday
Nick Johnson
Adam LaRoche
Victor Martinez
Benji Molina
Xavier Nady
Brian Roberts
Both Victor Martinez and Crawford have club options, but the Cleveland Indians and Tampa Bay Rays tend to be frugal. They also have players waiting in the wings who could step into the voids created by either departure. Regardless, that's a much stronger group.
The icing on the cake?
With another year of data, the Giants should have a better idea of what they've got in not only Sanchez, but Noah Lowry, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Alderson, and Angel Villalona as well.
Assuming all four young pitchers throw to form, the Giants would be trading from a strength in a down market for that commodity and a pretty good year for buyers as far as offense is concerned. All that offense means the Gents wouldn't necessarily have to part with any if their prized arms.
In the business, I believe that's called sittin' pretty.
So let's hope sittin' is all San Francisco management does until then.
In 2005 and 2006, the ineptitude of the National League West kept SF "alive" in the playoff picture. But let's be honest—the Giants were built around Barry Lamar Bonds and he was either absent or a shell of himself for most of both years.
Consequently, the Giants were brutal.
Still Bonds had a pulse and that was always enough to begin each season with hope.
After two years of such brutality crushing said hope, I was desperate. Apparently, so was management because Brian Sabean and friends threw the kitchen sink at Barry Zito. We all know how that turned out. Heading into 2007 though, I drank all the Kool-Aid.
It was a bigger park. It was an easier division. Pitchers have to hit in the NL i.e. no designated hitters. I bought it all and headed optimistically into 2007.
Yeah...took a while to recover from that one. About a year.
I had no illusions about 2008. Although Chase Utley said the Aaron Rowand signing wasn't as bad as the experts opined, I wasn't buying it. I'm sure the guy was a good teammate so it made sense for Chase to laud him. The problem, though, was that Rowand in SF would be an offensive centerpiece. Such a role is not where he belongs and, sure enough, the offense produced little with him as one of its main engines.
But, like I said, the shock from 2007 didn't last.
In hindsight, I did underestimate Rowand. He was a defensive stud, a warrior, and better offensively than I expected. Tim Lincecum matured into the dominant pitcher everyone thought he'd be (except he did it in about one season) and won the Cy Young. Bengie Molina made me believe in catchers again; I wouldn't be surprised if half of Big Money's 155 hits came with two outs (OK, I would but you get the point). And Zito continued to show improvement.
So I'm back on board the San Francisco bandwagon, complete with my rose-colored frames and half-full glass o' water.
Except I'm a year older and 2007 made me a bit wiser. My optimism is tempered and that temperance combined with Ken Rosenthal's recent observation about John Lackey allow me to see beyond 2009.
Even if the Giants added one of the bigger bats available on the market, they're still probably be looking at an uphill battle against teams like the Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, and Chicago Cubs. And that's just in the Senior Circuit.
I've already aired my grievances with the three-headed monster taking shape in the American League East.
Not only that, adding a big bat at this stage would almost certainly mean either Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, or the trade of Jonathan Sanchez in a relatively neutral market. All three options would seriously hamper the organization's options moving forward as well as the development of the youngsters that made great strides last year (Freddie Lewis in particular).
My newfound perspective shows me another big move would be too much risk for too little reward.
And that brings me to Rosenthal's article about the post-2009 free agency period.
Ramirez and Dunn are both non-starters in my opinion. Manny comes with too much baggage and Dunn isn't versatile enough while striking out at an obscene clip. But trading Sanchez might be a good move in the right scenario.
What might that look like? Well, a lot like next year's free agency period.
Consider that, after 2009, the following front-end starters are on track to be available:
Josh Beckett
Erik Bedard
Justin Duchscherer
Kelvim Escobar
Rich Harden
John Lackey
Cliff Lee
Brett Myers
Brandon Webb
As Mr. Rosenthal mentions, the top three (Webb, Lee, and Beckett) all have club options that are sure to be exercised. That leaves a relatively underwhelming crop of starters available on the open market, especially considering the free-for-all we just saw this time around.
On the other hand, check out the list of lumber that's available:
Rick Ankiel
Jason Bay
Adrian Beltre
Hank Blalock
Carl Crawford
Chone Figgins
Khalil Greene
Vladimir Guerrero
Matt Holliday
Nick Johnson
Adam LaRoche
Victor Martinez
Benji Molina
Xavier Nady
Brian Roberts
Both Victor Martinez and Crawford have club options, but the Cleveland Indians and Tampa Bay Rays tend to be frugal. They also have players waiting in the wings who could step into the voids created by either departure. Regardless, that's a much stronger group.
The icing on the cake?
With another year of data, the Giants should have a better idea of what they've got in not only Sanchez, but Noah Lowry, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Alderson, and Angel Villalona as well.
Assuming all four young pitchers throw to form, the Giants would be trading from a strength in a down market for that commodity and a pretty good year for buyers as far as offense is concerned. All that offense means the Gents wouldn't necessarily have to part with any if their prized arms.
In the business, I believe that's called sittin' pretty.
So let's hope sittin' is all San Francisco management does until then.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Scott BorAss Lands Another—Hook, Line, and Sinker with Derek Lowe as the Bait
A couple months ago, I wrote an article questioning the intelligence of some owners in the National Football League. Unfortunately, it's time to ask the same exact questions regarding their counterparts in Major League Baseball. The continued existence and success of Scott BorAss demands it.
Derek Lowe, four years, $60 million.
Derek Lowe.
My only questions would be for whomever is behind the sinking ship known as the Atlanta Braves. What the HELL are you doing?
So let me get this straight. You're perfectly content to pay a 40-year old DEREK LOWE $15 million to pitch. Meanwhile, a 42-year-old (in May) John Smoltz coming off major shoulder surgery apparently wasn't worth $5.5 million. Or maybe Smoltz took less to pitch for Boston as a middle finger to Hotlanta. I won't pretend to know the particulars.
I just know that, on the surface, it looks dumb. Really dumb. And more than a little desperate.
But let's forget the comparison to Smoltz for a moment.
It's unfair to both Lowe and the Braves for many reasons. Smoltz is a first ballot Hall-of-Famer and only pitched to an earned run average over 4.00 only twice in his 20-year career. Furthermore, major shoulder surgery on an aging body kinda calls off all bets. You could make a strong argument that the Braves should be forgiven their skepticism.
Let's just look at the contract itself.
The Atlanta Braves just gave Derek Lowe $15 million per year to pitch for them through 2012. This is a man whose closest approximation from baseball history is Don Robinson. Seriously. Look it up.
Now, like any true San Francisco Giant die-hard must, I love the Caveman. Love him. I still remember the jovial reliever coming out off the bench to pinch hit. He was a joy to watch and a bright spot on some sincerely bad teams.
Notice I said nothing about dominating opposing hitters.
That's because you could never lob that accusation at the big fella. And he retired from baseball after five sturdy yet unspectacular years with San Francisco at the age of 35.
Derek Lowe is 36.
Again, I loved the Caveman. The idea of paying him $15 million a year at any point in his career is hilariously insane. At the end of his career?
Surely, you jest.
Since arriving in Los Angeles circa March of 2005, Lowe has toed the slab to the average tune of 14 wins, 12 losses, 213 innings, 54 walks, 141 whiffs, and a 3.59 ERA while making 35 starts. Those are actually pretty good numbers (excluding the record, which is a poor indicator of starting pitching anyway).
But is that season really worth $15 million? Even in today's game?
Additionally, consider where Derek Lowe pitched. And against whom.
Out in the National League West, he's been facing incredibly weak lineups in incredibly friendly pitching environments. Pac Bell Park, Bank One Ballpark, Qualcomm Stadium, and Dodger Stadium all favor the pitcher. Even the lone minefield in the division (Coors Field) doesn't present as much of a problem to a heavy sinker-baller like Lowe because that pitch is actually helped by the reduced friction of Colorados' mile-high air.
More importantly, even the smallest ballpark is safe when the opposition swings toothpicks.
Since and including 2005, my Giants, the San Diego Padres, the Colorado Rockies, and the Arizona Diamondbacks have been nothing short of putrid as a collective. The D-Backs and Rox have thrown up a couple good seasons and a couple white-hot months, but a handful of peaks cannot atone for the months and months of valleys.
Nay, chasms.
In Atlanta, Lowe must face the fearsome Philadelphia Phillie lineup. Sometimes, he must do it in the bandbox known as Citizen Bank Park. He must face the dangerous New York Met lineup. Shoot, even the Florida Marlins and Washington Nationals have the potential to be more rugged than the best offense he faced in the NL West.
Which brings me full-circle, back to Scott BorAss.
How, HOW could you get suckered by this man? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. So what happens if he fools you every single year?
Somehow, that's what this parasite manages to do. Barry Zito. Alex Rodriguez. Andruw Jones. Manny Ramirez. And now Derek Lowe.
Manny will probably make another appearance on the list before 2009's first pitch.
The man is a coprophagous abomination. A snake in the grass of the highest magnitude. When one team with deep pockets appears on the verge of signing a high-profile free agent, a mysterious and anonymous rumor pops up that the team's biggest rival has suddenly entered the fray.
He pretends his clients get top dollar because they deserve it, they need it. Of course, lost in the spin is his nice fat commission. A commission that gets fatter with each zero he adds to his client's salary.
When one franchise gets burned a couple times and shows the fringes of panic, BorAss slumps in for the kill like a shark to a wounded, bleeding body. He smells that weakness from a private-jet-ride away and is wheels up before anyone else realizes what's happening.
Yet, it takes no genius to see this chump coming from a mile away.
How could the Braves miss it. They had been burned by stabs at Rafael Furcal, AJ Burnett, and Jake Peavy. The last persistent icon from the glory years of constant trips to the National League Championship Series (often beyond) had just walked out the door. A fanbase spoiled years of contention was showing hints of rebellion.
I mean, if a situation ever screamed BorAss exploitation, Atlanta was it.
A good mathematician and psychologist probably could've cooperated to predict the hour Atlanta's phone would ring.
And still, with all that to draw on, the Braves' management became just another fish on BorAss' line. Just another sucker.
Welcome to the club, Atlanta. Meet the San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Kansas City Royals.
Oh, and don't worry.
With BorAss' stable stocked with some of the brightest prospects in the minor leagues, more clubs are lining up at the door for admission as we speak.
Derek Lowe, four years, $60 million.
Derek Lowe.
My only questions would be for whomever is behind the sinking ship known as the Atlanta Braves. What the HELL are you doing?
So let me get this straight. You're perfectly content to pay a 40-year old DEREK LOWE $15 million to pitch. Meanwhile, a 42-year-old (in May) John Smoltz coming off major shoulder surgery apparently wasn't worth $5.5 million. Or maybe Smoltz took less to pitch for Boston as a middle finger to Hotlanta. I won't pretend to know the particulars.
I just know that, on the surface, it looks dumb. Really dumb. And more than a little desperate.
But let's forget the comparison to Smoltz for a moment.
It's unfair to both Lowe and the Braves for many reasons. Smoltz is a first ballot Hall-of-Famer and only pitched to an earned run average over 4.00 only twice in his 20-year career. Furthermore, major shoulder surgery on an aging body kinda calls off all bets. You could make a strong argument that the Braves should be forgiven their skepticism.
Let's just look at the contract itself.
The Atlanta Braves just gave Derek Lowe $15 million per year to pitch for them through 2012. This is a man whose closest approximation from baseball history is Don Robinson. Seriously. Look it up.
Now, like any true San Francisco Giant die-hard must, I love the Caveman. Love him. I still remember the jovial reliever coming out off the bench to pinch hit. He was a joy to watch and a bright spot on some sincerely bad teams.
Notice I said nothing about dominating opposing hitters.
That's because you could never lob that accusation at the big fella. And he retired from baseball after five sturdy yet unspectacular years with San Francisco at the age of 35.
Derek Lowe is 36.
Again, I loved the Caveman. The idea of paying him $15 million a year at any point in his career is hilariously insane. At the end of his career?
Surely, you jest.
Since arriving in Los Angeles circa March of 2005, Lowe has toed the slab to the average tune of 14 wins, 12 losses, 213 innings, 54 walks, 141 whiffs, and a 3.59 ERA while making 35 starts. Those are actually pretty good numbers (excluding the record, which is a poor indicator of starting pitching anyway).
But is that season really worth $15 million? Even in today's game?
Additionally, consider where Derek Lowe pitched. And against whom.
Out in the National League West, he's been facing incredibly weak lineups in incredibly friendly pitching environments. Pac Bell Park, Bank One Ballpark, Qualcomm Stadium, and Dodger Stadium all favor the pitcher. Even the lone minefield in the division (Coors Field) doesn't present as much of a problem to a heavy sinker-baller like Lowe because that pitch is actually helped by the reduced friction of Colorados' mile-high air.
More importantly, even the smallest ballpark is safe when the opposition swings toothpicks.
Since and including 2005, my Giants, the San Diego Padres, the Colorado Rockies, and the Arizona Diamondbacks have been nothing short of putrid as a collective. The D-Backs and Rox have thrown up a couple good seasons and a couple white-hot months, but a handful of peaks cannot atone for the months and months of valleys.
Nay, chasms.
In Atlanta, Lowe must face the fearsome Philadelphia Phillie lineup. Sometimes, he must do it in the bandbox known as Citizen Bank Park. He must face the dangerous New York Met lineup. Shoot, even the Florida Marlins and Washington Nationals have the potential to be more rugged than the best offense he faced in the NL West.
Which brings me full-circle, back to Scott BorAss.
How, HOW could you get suckered by this man? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. So what happens if he fools you every single year?
Somehow, that's what this parasite manages to do. Barry Zito. Alex Rodriguez. Andruw Jones. Manny Ramirez. And now Derek Lowe.
Manny will probably make another appearance on the list before 2009's first pitch.
The man is a coprophagous abomination. A snake in the grass of the highest magnitude. When one team with deep pockets appears on the verge of signing a high-profile free agent, a mysterious and anonymous rumor pops up that the team's biggest rival has suddenly entered the fray.
He pretends his clients get top dollar because they deserve it, they need it. Of course, lost in the spin is his nice fat commission. A commission that gets fatter with each zero he adds to his client's salary.
When one franchise gets burned a couple times and shows the fringes of panic, BorAss slumps in for the kill like a shark to a wounded, bleeding body. He smells that weakness from a private-jet-ride away and is wheels up before anyone else realizes what's happening.
Yet, it takes no genius to see this chump coming from a mile away.
How could the Braves miss it. They had been burned by stabs at Rafael Furcal, AJ Burnett, and Jake Peavy. The last persistent icon from the glory years of constant trips to the National League Championship Series (often beyond) had just walked out the door. A fanbase spoiled years of contention was showing hints of rebellion.
I mean, if a situation ever screamed BorAss exploitation, Atlanta was it.
A good mathematician and psychologist probably could've cooperated to predict the hour Atlanta's phone would ring.
And still, with all that to draw on, the Braves' management became just another fish on BorAss' line. Just another sucker.
Welcome to the club, Atlanta. Meet the San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Kansas City Royals.
Oh, and don't worry.
With BorAss' stable stocked with some of the brightest prospects in the minor leagues, more clubs are lining up at the door for admission as we speak.
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