There's a reason I left the Philadelphia Phillies as the last National League preview. The most obvious is that I think they have the inside track at representing the Senior Circuit in the World Series despite that enormous target on their collective forehead. Saving the (potentially) best for last gives you a light at the end of the San Diego Padre/Houston Astro tunnels.
The other primary reason is that the Phils are definitely my second favorite sports team. For the past several years, they've made the postseason tolerable after 162 games of bitter disappointment from our beloved San Francisco Giants.
It used to be that I'd follow the Orange and Black, primarily and secondarily. Then, I'd focus on cursing the Los Angeles Dodgers—those days are history although my animosity for LA has not abated in the least.
That particular rivalry does not allow for anything but intensification—either glacial or exponential or somewhere in between.
I'm just not an inherently negative person and Chase Utley has given me a reason to bump my hatred for the Bums back a notch in terms of priority. Utley is an awesome baseball player—he gives you insane numbers, tremendously underrated defense, and does it all with an old school attitude.
That right there is my idea of a perfect ballplayer. Throw in his propensity to come up LARGE in the clutch (offensively and defensively), what you have is a lot of baseball people's idea of a perfect pro.
Cole Hamels is nice and this team doesn't win a World Series without him. It's simply impossible—the Phils probably don't even beat the Dodgers, which incidentally makes me a big fan of Cole as well.
Ryan Howard gets too much love because everyone loves home runs and unwisely ignores strikeouts plus his defensive defies description.
And Jimmy Rollins can't be ignored because any shortstop who wins Most Valuable Player honors demands mention.
But if I could loot one guy from Philadelphia's roster, I'm taking Chase Utley. Of course, real Philly fans don't have to face that particular quandary because they get to enjoy all those guys and more.
Here's the full roster of talent:
Projected starting lineup
Catcher—Carlos Ruiz
First base—Ryan Howard
Second base—Chase Utley
Third base—Pedro Feliz
Shortstop—Jimmy Rollins
Left field—Raul Ibanez
Center field—Shane Victorino
Right field—Jayson Werth
I'm no huge fan of Ibanez, but I do think he's an upgrade over Pat Burrell just because I hate whiffs. Contrary to a stat-head school of thought, strikeouts are brutal on most player's psyche and those ramifications go well beyond the particular culprit. I can't believe how weak Feliz was last year considering the smaller park/stronger lineup, but I expect him to have a better showing.
Other than that, things look pretty set although the acquisition of Ronny Paulino could push out playoff hero Ruiz sooner or later. The Phils also have decent depth with Matt Stairs, Geoff Jenkins, Greg Dobbs, and Marcus Giles in camp.
Starting rotation
Ace—Cole Hamels (L)
Second spot—Brett Myers (R)
Third spot—Joe Blanton (R)
Fourth spot—Jamie Moyer (L)
Fifth spot—Kyle Kendrick (R)
I don't see how, but this rotation seems to be underrated. Hamels is the guy everyone knows about and rightly so. But Myers was not the same hurler after he came back up from the minors and my guess is the World Series ring/solid postseason performance will ensure more of the good Myers in 2009. Blanton probably will never see the heights he saw in Oakland, but he won't need to as a third starter in front of that offense.
Moyer and Kendrick won't wow you with stuff, but they seem to get the job done often enough.
If someone goes down, Philly has a problem because Chan Ho Park seems next in line. And nobody wants to see that.
Bullpen
Closer—Brad Lidge (R)
Set-up—Ryan Madson (R)
Set-up—Scott Eyre (L)
Set-up—Chad Durbin (R)
Set-up—Clay Condrey (R)
There just aren't too many serious weaknesses to the overall picture.
On offense, I've already covered a lot of the intangible stuff about the main players so just take a look at the 2008 numbers:
NAME R 2B HR RBI BA OBP OPS
Chase Utley 113 41 33 104 0.292 0.380 0.915
Jimmy Rollins 76 38 11 59 0.277 0.349 0.786
Ryan Howard 105 26 48 146 0.251 0.339 0.881
Not included in the above is that Howard managed to fan 199 times, Rollins had 47 stolen bases, Utley had 14 swipes, and Rollins only saw action in 137 games (although he still managed over 550 at-bats).
As for the anxious Philly fans (and the hopeful New York Met fans), Utley's gonna be 100 percent by Opening Day. I can almost guarantee you that (knock on wood).
Assuming Rollins has no nagging injuries (and nobody suffers any before April), the Phillies should have one of the best cores in baseball at full strength.
Raul Ibanez moves to a much smaller park and a much stronger lineup. That should mean at least a repeat of his 2008 tally—a .293 average with 43 doubles, 23 bombs, 85 runs scored, 110 runs batted in, a .358 on-base percentage, and an .837 OPS. It could even produce a bump in production.
That would give Philly a fourth all-around threat in the batter's box.
Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth form a surprisingly strong pairing in the outfield. Both give you a rifle arm, above-average defense, and ever improving offense. The Flyin' Hawaiian had a pretty good regular season prior to his postseason coming out party—.293 with 30 doubles, 14 HRs, 102 runs, 58 RBI, 36 swipes, .352 OBP, and .799 OPS.
Werth was quite the revelation himself—.273 with 16 doubles, 24 bombs, 73 runs, 67 RBI, 20 steals, .363 OBP, and .861 OPS.
Matt Stairs and Geoff Jenkins both offer pop if nothing else should anyone in the outfield go down.
Carlos Ruiz and Pedro Feliz (besides rhyming) are the obvious pressure points.
Even here, Greg Dobbs put up nice numbers in 226 ABs so he's not an awful plan B to Pedro. And Ronny Paulino showed promise before losing the job in Pittsburgh to Ryan Doumit, who's one of the bright up-and-comers at catcher so there's reason to think he might be able to supplant Ruiz and actually provide some reliable offensive from the position.
The entire pitching staff is just as rock solid as the offensive even if it lacks the flash of Utley-Rollins-Howard.
There's no need to rehash the excellence of Cole Hamels—he's a stallion and not recitation of accolades/stats will impress that better than his playoff performance. And I already talked about Brett Myers and Blanton (at least the relevant parts).
Kyle Kendrick probably rates out as a No. 3 starter even if he squeezes every drop out of his potential and that's about all that needs to be said about him.
So let's skip to the bullpen rather than confront the eternal mystery that is Jamie Moyer's continued survival—nay—success.
Brad Lidge doesn't figure to be perfect again in 2009, but Howard doesn't figure to struggle and Myers doesn't figure to need another wake-up call at midseason. The eventual blown save shouldn't be too much of a problem for Lidge. I expect another stellar year powered by a brimming cup of confidence courtesy of that World Series ring.
The loss of J.C. Romero to a performance-enhancing-drug-use ban is gonna sting more than perhaps anyone outside Philly realizes, but that's not horrible news when it's the worst to confront the team this offseason.
And the Phils have a quietly reliable cadre of relievers highlighted by Ryan Madson—3.05 ERA and only six HRs allowed in 82+ innings pitched—and Chad Durbin—2.86 ERA with only five HRS surrendered in 87+ IP. Those numbers are pretty incredible considering Citizens Bank Park often plays like a softball field.
Nobody outta the 'pen other than Lidge is gonna terrify you with stuff, but they all keep runs off the board and the pill in the park. That's pretty much all you need from relievers.
And it pretty much sums up the entire team perfectly.
There isn't anything overwhelmingly dominant about this club—the nucleus in all three areas is formidable while the role players are excellent in their expected and necessary capacities. It is the prime example of an excellent team being the product of more than its individual talents.
Of course, it doesn't hurt that the individual talents are nice little foundations from which to start.
Regardless, the Philadelphia Phillies might not have the sex appeal of the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Mets, or Chicago Cubs. Even fresh off a win in the Winter Classic.
But they have something most teams lack—stability.
There hasn't been much change and even less unhappiness from last year's squad. And that one did pretty well. It's beyond naive to predict a repeat—the baseball gods are almost never that merciful in consecutive years.
So I won't go that far. I'll just say the Philadelphia Phillies have to be the favorites to at least play for MLB's ultimate prize in 2009.
Hopefully, that should spare me the batteries and snowballs.
Saturday, March 7, 2009
The Washington Nationals' 2009 Slightly Premature Preview
When the carnage from 2009 is over, I can picture the Washington Nationals' collective body lying in a ditch surrounded by the other fallen National League clubs. As the four qualifiers ride off into the playoff sunset, the Nats' last words will linger over the horror-scape:
A pitcher, a pitcher, my kingdom for a pitcher!
Why is Washington's lack of a rotation so demoralizing? After all, weak starting pitching is pretty much the failing du jour in modern baseball—my beloved San Francisco Giants being a notable exception.
Their failing is more traumatic because the Washington Nationals nee Montreal Expos have assembled a sneaky little lineup that has a substantial amount of latent potency. That potential stands a good chance of becoming kinetic in 2009.
Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, Ryan Zimmerman, Wily Mo Pena—these are all four tool players at a minimum. Three of the four are arguable five toolers. And they're all in that 23-28 year window that often sees years of abject misery forgotten in the beat of 162 scintillating games.
Ask Josh Hamilton.
Throw in Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Jesus Flores, a capable bench, and the result is actually pretty impressive. And absolutely useless.
Because the starting pitching is a total void. I sh*t you not—some sites list Daniel Cabrera as the Nats' number two. And they weren't gag sites; ESPN still has some credibility.
Let's run down the roster before I lose the will to do so:
Projected starting lineup
Catcher—Jesus Flores
First base—Adam Dunn
Second base—Ronnie Belliard/Anderson Hernandez
Third base—Ryan Zimmerman
Shortstop—Christian Guzman
Left field—Josh Willingham
Center field—Lastings Milledge
Right field—Elijah Dukes
Like I said, there's a whole mess of raw ability there. Some of it has made cameos on the field, but most still remains untapped. It remains to be seen if Dunn can last a whole year in the infield, but that's the plan to thin out a crowded outfield situation. Even with Dunn at first, the Nats still have Wily Mo on the bench alongside Austin Kearns and Spring-invitee Corey Patterson.
The Opening Day bench should also feature Nick Johnson, who would be a starter if he could ever remain healthy. Dmitri Young's now old as well as fat—not a good combination for a pro athlete. Still, Washington has some good depth on offense.
Starting pitching
Ace—Scott Olsen (L)
Second spot—John Lannan (L)
Third spot—Daniel Cabrera (R)
Fourth spot—Tyler Clippard (R)
Fifth spot—Colin Balester (R)
Oh my God. That has to be the worst starting rotation in Major League Baseball. It has to be—what would a worse one look like? Olsen—decent pitcher and if he's an ace, then I'm a blue-chip National Football League prospect on the offensive line. Lannan is a promising young arm, even more so considering he's a 24-year-old lefty. But he's not at full capacity yet and that may never be a MLB number two.
The rest of the rotation is a flippin' disaster. Shawn Hill is being examined by the Grim Reaper of baseball medicine—Dr. James Andrews. Clippard gets his spot by default despite his sinking stock. F*** Cabrera, he's killed my fantasy team more times than I care to admit and he'll do the same to the Nats. Balester pitched to a 5.51 earned run average in 2008 and gave up 12 home runs in 80 innings. Ugh.
Bullpen
Closer—Joel Hanrahan (R)
Set-up—Saul Rivera (R)
Set-up—Steven Shell (R)
Set-up—Garrett Mock (R)
This team may very well have the grossest disparity between its pitching and hitting of any Major League squad in 2009.
Seriously, there could be a Lord of the Flies type situation developing in the Washington clubhouse by midseason. We could see a blood-thirsty Elijah Dukes leading Tribe Maple against mild-mannered Scott Olsen and Tribe Rosin. Hopefully, Daniel Cabrera can be Olsen's Piggy and put us all out of our misery.
Unfortunately, Gustavo Chacin is on the Spring roster and he much more looks the part.
All inappropriate allusions to juvenile savagery aside, the Nats really do have something on offense. We all know about Adam Dunn's power and his propensity to fan—he's put up 40+ home runs and 160+ Ks every year since 2003.
And while Dunn will probably never hit for great average (.236 in '08), he walks quite a bit so his on-base percentage is actually very good (.386 in '08). None of that figures to change in 2009.
Josh Willingham is a poor man's Adam Dunn, but reduced expectations and lesser profile might be just the things that allow him to relax. That, in turn, may open the flood gates on his talent (which we've heard is considerable, although the numbers belie such).
Ryan Zimmerman runs a close second to Dunn for offensive importance. If this kid can stay healthy at 24 years of age, a leap seems inevitable. His numbers were steadily progressing until the injury bug bit him last year. It says here a healthy Zimmerman should make a run at 30 bombs, 100+ runs scored, 100+ RBI, and an average around .300 with all the juicy peripherals that come with such core stats.
Christian Guzman will always hit around .300 because of his speed and slap-happy approach.
Ronnie Belliard has a bit more pop than what Anderson Hernandez has shown, but the winner of the second base job won't be critical anyway. And Jesus Flores is another better-than-average offensive catcher that still won't make/break your team.
And then there's the dynamically volatile due of Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes.
These guys have some rough edges to be sure, but they also have athleticism oozing out of their ears. Milledge is a year younger at 23 going on 24, yet he has made more progress thus far. In 2008, Milledge turned in a respectable line of a .268 average, 24 doubles, 14 HRs, 65 runs scored, 61 RBI, 24 stolen bases, a .330 OBP, and a .731 OPS. Those are pretty fancy numbers considering the Washington offense was pathetic.
Dukes has a little less polish and a little higher upside. He only saw 276 at-bats due to injury in '08, but he hit .264 with 16 doubles, 13 bombs, 48 runs, 44 RBI, 13 swipes, a .386 OBP, and an .864 OPS. Pretty good from a 24-year-old seeing his first regular duty.
Like I said, there is no limit to their raw ability so 2009 could see a special year from Milledge or Dukes or both.
Hopefully both because that would at least give Washington fans a reason to watch the games. And the reason will have to come from the offense because, echoing sentiments from above, the pitching is BRUTAL.
Not only does the rotation lack a true ace and feature Daniel Cabrera (who apparently refuses to work hard enough to realize his vast natural gifts), the back end is awful and there seems to be no help in sight.
I already mentioned Chacin as another arm in the mix, but he is working his way back from catastrophic arm injury. The rest of the "contenders" are Jason Bergmann (5.09 ERA and 2-11 in '08) and Jorge Sosa (7.06 ERA in '08). Top prospect Ross Detwiler hasn't taken to the pros in the exhibition games and he seems to be in danger of losing his "top prospect" intro.
No wonder Odalis Perez decided not to even show.
The bullpen is a little brighter; primarily because Joel Hanrahan impressed in his audition for the closer role after Jon Rauch departed last season. But Saul Rivera and Steven Shell are both reliable arms for set-up men although they won't burn anyone up. Garrett Mock has merited some good leash as well.
Unfortunately, it just doesn't matter. All the offense and Rolaids in the world won't be enough to compensate for that black hole to start games. You can put a Testarossa chassis and performance treads on a hooptie engine and it'll look like a Ferrari.
It'll still run like a hooptie.
That's what the Nats have done in 2009—dressed up a clunker—and it should be obvious the minute Washington turns the keys.
A pitcher, a pitcher, my kingdom for a pitcher!
Why is Washington's lack of a rotation so demoralizing? After all, weak starting pitching is pretty much the failing du jour in modern baseball—my beloved San Francisco Giants being a notable exception.
Their failing is more traumatic because the Washington Nationals nee Montreal Expos have assembled a sneaky little lineup that has a substantial amount of latent potency. That potential stands a good chance of becoming kinetic in 2009.
Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, Ryan Zimmerman, Wily Mo Pena—these are all four tool players at a minimum. Three of the four are arguable five toolers. And they're all in that 23-28 year window that often sees years of abject misery forgotten in the beat of 162 scintillating games.
Ask Josh Hamilton.
Throw in Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Jesus Flores, a capable bench, and the result is actually pretty impressive. And absolutely useless.
Because the starting pitching is a total void. I sh*t you not—some sites list Daniel Cabrera as the Nats' number two. And they weren't gag sites; ESPN still has some credibility.
Let's run down the roster before I lose the will to do so:
Projected starting lineup
Catcher—Jesus Flores
First base—Adam Dunn
Second base—Ronnie Belliard/Anderson Hernandez
Third base—Ryan Zimmerman
Shortstop—Christian Guzman
Left field—Josh Willingham
Center field—Lastings Milledge
Right field—Elijah Dukes
Like I said, there's a whole mess of raw ability there. Some of it has made cameos on the field, but most still remains untapped. It remains to be seen if Dunn can last a whole year in the infield, but that's the plan to thin out a crowded outfield situation. Even with Dunn at first, the Nats still have Wily Mo on the bench alongside Austin Kearns and Spring-invitee Corey Patterson.
The Opening Day bench should also feature Nick Johnson, who would be a starter if he could ever remain healthy. Dmitri Young's now old as well as fat—not a good combination for a pro athlete. Still, Washington has some good depth on offense.
Starting pitching
Ace—Scott Olsen (L)
Second spot—John Lannan (L)
Third spot—Daniel Cabrera (R)
Fourth spot—Tyler Clippard (R)
Fifth spot—Colin Balester (R)
Oh my God. That has to be the worst starting rotation in Major League Baseball. It has to be—what would a worse one look like? Olsen—decent pitcher and if he's an ace, then I'm a blue-chip National Football League prospect on the offensive line. Lannan is a promising young arm, even more so considering he's a 24-year-old lefty. But he's not at full capacity yet and that may never be a MLB number two.
The rest of the rotation is a flippin' disaster. Shawn Hill is being examined by the Grim Reaper of baseball medicine—Dr. James Andrews. Clippard gets his spot by default despite his sinking stock. F*** Cabrera, he's killed my fantasy team more times than I care to admit and he'll do the same to the Nats. Balester pitched to a 5.51 earned run average in 2008 and gave up 12 home runs in 80 innings. Ugh.
Bullpen
Closer—Joel Hanrahan (R)
Set-up—Saul Rivera (R)
Set-up—Steven Shell (R)
Set-up—Garrett Mock (R)
This team may very well have the grossest disparity between its pitching and hitting of any Major League squad in 2009.
Seriously, there could be a Lord of the Flies type situation developing in the Washington clubhouse by midseason. We could see a blood-thirsty Elijah Dukes leading Tribe Maple against mild-mannered Scott Olsen and Tribe Rosin. Hopefully, Daniel Cabrera can be Olsen's Piggy and put us all out of our misery.
Unfortunately, Gustavo Chacin is on the Spring roster and he much more looks the part.
All inappropriate allusions to juvenile savagery aside, the Nats really do have something on offense. We all know about Adam Dunn's power and his propensity to fan—he's put up 40+ home runs and 160+ Ks every year since 2003.
And while Dunn will probably never hit for great average (.236 in '08), he walks quite a bit so his on-base percentage is actually very good (.386 in '08). None of that figures to change in 2009.
Josh Willingham is a poor man's Adam Dunn, but reduced expectations and lesser profile might be just the things that allow him to relax. That, in turn, may open the flood gates on his talent (which we've heard is considerable, although the numbers belie such).
Ryan Zimmerman runs a close second to Dunn for offensive importance. If this kid can stay healthy at 24 years of age, a leap seems inevitable. His numbers were steadily progressing until the injury bug bit him last year. It says here a healthy Zimmerman should make a run at 30 bombs, 100+ runs scored, 100+ RBI, and an average around .300 with all the juicy peripherals that come with such core stats.
Christian Guzman will always hit around .300 because of his speed and slap-happy approach.
Ronnie Belliard has a bit more pop than what Anderson Hernandez has shown, but the winner of the second base job won't be critical anyway. And Jesus Flores is another better-than-average offensive catcher that still won't make/break your team.
And then there's the dynamically volatile due of Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes.
These guys have some rough edges to be sure, but they also have athleticism oozing out of their ears. Milledge is a year younger at 23 going on 24, yet he has made more progress thus far. In 2008, Milledge turned in a respectable line of a .268 average, 24 doubles, 14 HRs, 65 runs scored, 61 RBI, 24 stolen bases, a .330 OBP, and a .731 OPS. Those are pretty fancy numbers considering the Washington offense was pathetic.
Dukes has a little less polish and a little higher upside. He only saw 276 at-bats due to injury in '08, but he hit .264 with 16 doubles, 13 bombs, 48 runs, 44 RBI, 13 swipes, a .386 OBP, and an .864 OPS. Pretty good from a 24-year-old seeing his first regular duty.
Like I said, there is no limit to their raw ability so 2009 could see a special year from Milledge or Dukes or both.
Hopefully both because that would at least give Washington fans a reason to watch the games. And the reason will have to come from the offense because, echoing sentiments from above, the pitching is BRUTAL.
Not only does the rotation lack a true ace and feature Daniel Cabrera (who apparently refuses to work hard enough to realize his vast natural gifts), the back end is awful and there seems to be no help in sight.
I already mentioned Chacin as another arm in the mix, but he is working his way back from catastrophic arm injury. The rest of the "contenders" are Jason Bergmann (5.09 ERA and 2-11 in '08) and Jorge Sosa (7.06 ERA in '08). Top prospect Ross Detwiler hasn't taken to the pros in the exhibition games and he seems to be in danger of losing his "top prospect" intro.
No wonder Odalis Perez decided not to even show.
The bullpen is a little brighter; primarily because Joel Hanrahan impressed in his audition for the closer role after Jon Rauch departed last season. But Saul Rivera and Steven Shell are both reliable arms for set-up men although they won't burn anyone up. Garrett Mock has merited some good leash as well.
Unfortunately, it just doesn't matter. All the offense and Rolaids in the world won't be enough to compensate for that black hole to start games. You can put a Testarossa chassis and performance treads on a hooptie engine and it'll look like a Ferrari.
It'll still run like a hooptie.
That's what the Nats have done in 2009—dressed up a clunker—and it should be obvious the minute Washington turns the keys.
Friday, March 6, 2009
The Florida Marlins' 2009 Slightly Premature Preview
When you're writing a bunch of previews for Major League Baseball teams, the non-contenders start to run together. There really isn't too much difference between most of the squads that will toil in the obscurity of their division's bottom-half. They all have bright spots and legitimate reasons to cross fingers, but the reality is their flaws are too numerous.
Most of those are in the pitching staff.
In a lot of ways, the Florida Marlins are no different. But the overall youth of the team makes the team stand out from the rest of the probable also-rans.
I knew they'd be youthfully exuberant. I didn't expect this.
There appears to be a 19-year-old kid (Matt Dominguez) in camp with the Big League ball club. That's no big deal, right? Lots of teams invite those young kids to Spring Training just to kick the tires on the draft pick. Give 'em a taste of the Show before the games count.
And that's almost definitely the case with Dominguez. It's probably the case with the jewel offseason acquisition, Jose Ceda (22 years old).
But it's not the case with 21-year-old Cameron Maybin—this is surely the year the Fish give the kid the keys to a starting gig.
It's certainly not the case with 22-year-old Chris Volstad or 23-year-old Andrew Miller. Both are penciled in as important parts of a starting rotation that features nobody older than Ricky Nolasco's 26 years.
All that youth makes Florida exciting regardless of whether they have a shot at the postseason.
That's good because the Marlins will almost certainly spend 2009 fighting to tread water. Everything worked perfectly for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2008, but they were exception to the rule.
Usually, relying on a bunch of green kids doesn't turn out well.
Even though Florida was surprisingly competitive last year and finished up playing good ball, the baseball gods do not dispense justice. Only fortune and misfortune—it seems to be the latter for Florida in 2009.
Misfortune as in having to compete with the Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, and Atlanta Braves for 18/19 games each. That's roughly 60 games against two of the best teams in the National League heading into the season and a third that should be one of the better teams even if not elite.
But don't give up all hope ye who enter here because a lot of the Marlins' youth is quite shiny:
Projected starting lineup
Catcher—John Baker
First base—Gabby Sanchez/Wes Helms
Second base—Dan Uggla
Third base—Jorge Cantu
Shortstop—Hanley Ramirez
Left field—Cody Ross
Center field—Cameron Maybin
Right field—Jeremy Hermida
There are some really nice pieces there and, again, none of them are too old. The Marlins also have some intriguing options floating around in contention for the weaker infield spots. Emilio Bonifacio is supposed to be a dynamite speed guy if he can ever put it all together—unfortunately that looks less and less likely; still he'll only be 24 a couple weeks after Opening Day. Dallas McPherson has always mashed in the minors and fizzled in the pros, he could solve some issues by finally coming through on his promise.
Of course, Florida moved a pretty good hitter in Mike Jacobs to open the way for Gabby Sanchez and the Marlins' management typically has an astute eye for young talent. If he can come around from his rough start in the exhibition season, the previous paragraph is moot.
Starting rotation
Ace—Ricky Nolasco (R)
Second spot—Josh Johnson (R)
Third spot—Anibal Sanchez (R)
Fourth spot—Chris Volstad (R)
Fifth spot—Andrew Miller (L)
At one point or another, each of these guys has been touted as an ace-in-waiting. To be honest, each has shown flashes—no matter how brief—of realizing his hype. Of course, each has been typically inconsistent, pitching true to his immature years on frequent occasion. Nolasco is the ace because his 2008 performance was pseudo-dominating and he seems the most reliable, but Johnson used to wear that mantle for Florida and Anibal Sanchez has a no-hitter to his credit so he obviously has ace-stuff.
A lot of teams would kill for this kind of talent in the rotation. The only question will be how much time the young guns spend as a princes and how much as toads.
Bullpen
Closer—Matt Lindstrom (R)
Set-up—Leo Nunez (R)
Set-up—Scott Proctor (R)
Set-up—Taylor Tankersley (L)
Set-up—Logan Kensing (R)
From here on out, it's a little ridiculous. You could have no idea what a baseball even is and predict the Florida Marlins' 2009 season with about the same accuracy as anything I will produce.
The oldest key piece is Matt Lindstrom at 29 years and about a month. And he's only a closer with as short a leash as your gonna find at the MLB level. There is simply no way to claim you know what such unproven and phenomenal talent will do.
It should take some time to develop, but it could all arrive at once a la Tampa.
John Baker has less than 200 career at-bats, but he's shown the ability to Punch and Judy his way to around a .300 average while working an on-base percentage almost 100 points higher. That's not too bad considering how offensively woeful a lot of starting backstops are. He's 28.
Pretty much all that anyone knows about Gabby Sanchez was covered above—he's a great prospect who's getting his first serious taste of pro pitching. The jury's out on the 25-year-old.
The exact same can be said of Cameron Maybin—although transcendent speed is always an advantage when you're learning the game.
We keep hearing that Jeremy Hermida is gonna breakout, but he has yet to do it. Shockingly, the dude's only 25 so he's still got some time to make good. But he has yet to do so.
You'll get another jolt to the system when you check out Cody Ross' final tally from last season's campaign—a .260 average, 29 doubles, 22 home runs, 59 runs scored, 73 runs batted in, a .316 on-base percentage, and an .804 OPS. Those aren't astonishing except they came from Cody Ross.
Ross would be another elder statesmen (at 28) who figures prominently.
Jorge Cantu (only 27, how is that possible?) is there to hit and avoid killing anyone at third base, including himself. Cantu rediscovered his stroke in '08 to the tune of a .277 average with 41 doubles, 29 HRs, 92 runs, 95 RBI, a .327 OBP, and an .808 OPS. It's a good thing because the man is not employed for his leather.
Like I said, there are some nice pieces. However, the real heavy lifters for this offense are Hanley Ramirez (25) and Dan Uggla (soon to be 29).
Not only does Hanley play a slick short, he chipped in a .301 average with 34 doubles, 33 bombs, 125 runs, 67 RBI, 35 stolen bases, a .400 OBP, and a .940 OPS. The truly frightening part is, considering Ramirez' age, the smart money is on him getting better.
Uggla doesn't offer the same kind of defense, although it's better than he showed in Yankee Stadium. However, similar to Cantu, Dan's not there for his glove—he's there for his .260 average, 37 doubles, 32 taters, 97 runs, 92 RBI, .360 OBP, and .874 OPS. As long as he rakes, it's all good.
The serious question marks are, as usual, in the rotation.
It's safe to put Ricky Nolasco down as an asset in ink. A year that sees 212+ innings pitched, 15 wins against eight losses, a 3.52 earned run average, a 1.10 WHIP, and 186 strikeouts against 42 walks earns you that respect.
But you'd better use pencil for the rest.
Josh Johnson was once a stud and has shown surprisingly little erosion from his pre-Tommy John days. Who knows how long that will last? At only 25, the episode may be completely behind him or it could rear its ugly head with no warning.
Anibal Sanchez is also only 25, but has less of a track record than Johnson so there's less reason to be as optimistic. He's working his way back from a labrum tear and has struggled to regain the form that saw him no-hit the Arizona Diamondbacks as a rookie.
That last sentence, though, is enough reason to keep an eye on him.
Chris Volstad and Andrew Miller are the two biggest mysteries in the rotation. Volstad was impressive in his short run while Miller was anything but. Still, neither has enough of a sample size from which to draw firm conclusions. Nor are they old enough.
It's more of the same in the 'pen. The aforementioned Lindstrom looks like a beast and showed affinity for the role in '08, but he's never been THE guy at the end of games. Leo Nunez had a very nice year for the Kansas City Royals, but who knows how the new year/league will treat him. Taylor Tankersley was a great lefty once upon a time, but had arm issues last year so he's up in the air. The same could be said about Logan Kensing from the right side.
I was once a believer in Scott Proctor, but he was brutal last year. Meanwhile, the Marlins might not want to rush the youngster Ceda into the Bigs. We'll see, but he's no sure-thing in 2009.
All in all, there's a ton to like and a ton that makes you uneasy. My brain tells me this team is a year or two away from sincere contention and my gut agrees. I think the Florida Marlins mess with some teams this year, but spend the majority of 2009 sorting things out for the future.
But hey, lightning might strike the Sunshine State in consecutive years. Crazier things have happened and Florida's known for nothing if not the whims of Mother Nature.
Maybe she'll blow that Tampa luck in the Marlins' direction for 2009.
Most of those are in the pitching staff.
In a lot of ways, the Florida Marlins are no different. But the overall youth of the team makes the team stand out from the rest of the probable also-rans.
I knew they'd be youthfully exuberant. I didn't expect this.
There appears to be a 19-year-old kid (Matt Dominguez) in camp with the Big League ball club. That's no big deal, right? Lots of teams invite those young kids to Spring Training just to kick the tires on the draft pick. Give 'em a taste of the Show before the games count.
And that's almost definitely the case with Dominguez. It's probably the case with the jewel offseason acquisition, Jose Ceda (22 years old).
But it's not the case with 21-year-old Cameron Maybin—this is surely the year the Fish give the kid the keys to a starting gig.
It's certainly not the case with 22-year-old Chris Volstad or 23-year-old Andrew Miller. Both are penciled in as important parts of a starting rotation that features nobody older than Ricky Nolasco's 26 years.
All that youth makes Florida exciting regardless of whether they have a shot at the postseason.
That's good because the Marlins will almost certainly spend 2009 fighting to tread water. Everything worked perfectly for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2008, but they were exception to the rule.
Usually, relying on a bunch of green kids doesn't turn out well.
Even though Florida was surprisingly competitive last year and finished up playing good ball, the baseball gods do not dispense justice. Only fortune and misfortune—it seems to be the latter for Florida in 2009.
Misfortune as in having to compete with the Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, and Atlanta Braves for 18/19 games each. That's roughly 60 games against two of the best teams in the National League heading into the season and a third that should be one of the better teams even if not elite.
But don't give up all hope ye who enter here because a lot of the Marlins' youth is quite shiny:
Projected starting lineup
Catcher—John Baker
First base—Gabby Sanchez/Wes Helms
Second base—Dan Uggla
Third base—Jorge Cantu
Shortstop—Hanley Ramirez
Left field—Cody Ross
Center field—Cameron Maybin
Right field—Jeremy Hermida
There are some really nice pieces there and, again, none of them are too old. The Marlins also have some intriguing options floating around in contention for the weaker infield spots. Emilio Bonifacio is supposed to be a dynamite speed guy if he can ever put it all together—unfortunately that looks less and less likely; still he'll only be 24 a couple weeks after Opening Day. Dallas McPherson has always mashed in the minors and fizzled in the pros, he could solve some issues by finally coming through on his promise.
Of course, Florida moved a pretty good hitter in Mike Jacobs to open the way for Gabby Sanchez and the Marlins' management typically has an astute eye for young talent. If he can come around from his rough start in the exhibition season, the previous paragraph is moot.
Starting rotation
Ace—Ricky Nolasco (R)
Second spot—Josh Johnson (R)
Third spot—Anibal Sanchez (R)
Fourth spot—Chris Volstad (R)
Fifth spot—Andrew Miller (L)
At one point or another, each of these guys has been touted as an ace-in-waiting. To be honest, each has shown flashes—no matter how brief—of realizing his hype. Of course, each has been typically inconsistent, pitching true to his immature years on frequent occasion. Nolasco is the ace because his 2008 performance was pseudo-dominating and he seems the most reliable, but Johnson used to wear that mantle for Florida and Anibal Sanchez has a no-hitter to his credit so he obviously has ace-stuff.
A lot of teams would kill for this kind of talent in the rotation. The only question will be how much time the young guns spend as a princes and how much as toads.
Bullpen
Closer—Matt Lindstrom (R)
Set-up—Leo Nunez (R)
Set-up—Scott Proctor (R)
Set-up—Taylor Tankersley (L)
Set-up—Logan Kensing (R)
From here on out, it's a little ridiculous. You could have no idea what a baseball even is and predict the Florida Marlins' 2009 season with about the same accuracy as anything I will produce.
The oldest key piece is Matt Lindstrom at 29 years and about a month. And he's only a closer with as short a leash as your gonna find at the MLB level. There is simply no way to claim you know what such unproven and phenomenal talent will do.
It should take some time to develop, but it could all arrive at once a la Tampa.
John Baker has less than 200 career at-bats, but he's shown the ability to Punch and Judy his way to around a .300 average while working an on-base percentage almost 100 points higher. That's not too bad considering how offensively woeful a lot of starting backstops are. He's 28.
Pretty much all that anyone knows about Gabby Sanchez was covered above—he's a great prospect who's getting his first serious taste of pro pitching. The jury's out on the 25-year-old.
The exact same can be said of Cameron Maybin—although transcendent speed is always an advantage when you're learning the game.
We keep hearing that Jeremy Hermida is gonna breakout, but he has yet to do it. Shockingly, the dude's only 25 so he's still got some time to make good. But he has yet to do so.
You'll get another jolt to the system when you check out Cody Ross' final tally from last season's campaign—a .260 average, 29 doubles, 22 home runs, 59 runs scored, 73 runs batted in, a .316 on-base percentage, and an .804 OPS. Those aren't astonishing except they came from Cody Ross.
Ross would be another elder statesmen (at 28) who figures prominently.
Jorge Cantu (only 27, how is that possible?) is there to hit and avoid killing anyone at third base, including himself. Cantu rediscovered his stroke in '08 to the tune of a .277 average with 41 doubles, 29 HRs, 92 runs, 95 RBI, a .327 OBP, and an .808 OPS. It's a good thing because the man is not employed for his leather.
Like I said, there are some nice pieces. However, the real heavy lifters for this offense are Hanley Ramirez (25) and Dan Uggla (soon to be 29).
Not only does Hanley play a slick short, he chipped in a .301 average with 34 doubles, 33 bombs, 125 runs, 67 RBI, 35 stolen bases, a .400 OBP, and a .940 OPS. The truly frightening part is, considering Ramirez' age, the smart money is on him getting better.
Uggla doesn't offer the same kind of defense, although it's better than he showed in Yankee Stadium. However, similar to Cantu, Dan's not there for his glove—he's there for his .260 average, 37 doubles, 32 taters, 97 runs, 92 RBI, .360 OBP, and .874 OPS. As long as he rakes, it's all good.
The serious question marks are, as usual, in the rotation.
It's safe to put Ricky Nolasco down as an asset in ink. A year that sees 212+ innings pitched, 15 wins against eight losses, a 3.52 earned run average, a 1.10 WHIP, and 186 strikeouts against 42 walks earns you that respect.
But you'd better use pencil for the rest.
Josh Johnson was once a stud and has shown surprisingly little erosion from his pre-Tommy John days. Who knows how long that will last? At only 25, the episode may be completely behind him or it could rear its ugly head with no warning.
Anibal Sanchez is also only 25, but has less of a track record than Johnson so there's less reason to be as optimistic. He's working his way back from a labrum tear and has struggled to regain the form that saw him no-hit the Arizona Diamondbacks as a rookie.
That last sentence, though, is enough reason to keep an eye on him.
Chris Volstad and Andrew Miller are the two biggest mysteries in the rotation. Volstad was impressive in his short run while Miller was anything but. Still, neither has enough of a sample size from which to draw firm conclusions. Nor are they old enough.
It's more of the same in the 'pen. The aforementioned Lindstrom looks like a beast and showed affinity for the role in '08, but he's never been THE guy at the end of games. Leo Nunez had a very nice year for the Kansas City Royals, but who knows how the new year/league will treat him. Taylor Tankersley was a great lefty once upon a time, but had arm issues last year so he's up in the air. The same could be said about Logan Kensing from the right side.
I was once a believer in Scott Proctor, but he was brutal last year. Meanwhile, the Marlins might not want to rush the youngster Ceda into the Bigs. We'll see, but he's no sure-thing in 2009.
All in all, there's a ton to like and a ton that makes you uneasy. My brain tells me this team is a year or two away from sincere contention and my gut agrees. I think the Florida Marlins mess with some teams this year, but spend the majority of 2009 sorting things out for the future.
But hey, lightning might strike the Sunshine State in consecutive years. Crazier things have happened and Florida's known for nothing if not the whims of Mother Nature.
Maybe she'll blow that Tampa luck in the Marlins' direction for 2009.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Dallas Roundtable No. 2
Whooo boy, I gotta say even I didn't see this one coming. I'm as hard on Terrell Owens and as down on him as almost anyone you can find, but the news that the Dallas Cowboys cut him struck me as astounding.
Not that I disagree with the sanity of the move.
It's just that Jerry Jones and the 'boys jumped aboard this train wreck with eyes wide open. They can't claim ignorance to TO's rep for being a team-killer. Not when they picked him off the scrap heap where the Philadelphia Eagles had freshly deposited him.
Not when those Iggles unwisely took TO off the hands of the San Francisco 49ers for pennies on the millions of dollars.
So why cut him? Why now? Owens had been a comparable angel in Dallas when his tenure in Big D is assessed next to the stints in Philly and the City. Sure he threw a couple not-so-subtle barbs at Tony Romo and Jason Garrett.
Those were Hallmark greetings relative to what he did to former versions. This is a guy who once openly questioned Jeff Garcia's sexuality and tried to hang a Super Bowl loss around Donovan McNabb's shoulders.
To me, the move indicates one of two things, possibly both: (A) Jerry Jones sincerely believes in Romo and is going to give the kid every shot to succeed (smart); and/or (B) Jones is almost as whole-heartedly behind Garrett (jury's still out on that one).
People keep pointing out how this means that Romo will have a clear locker room, ready for his divine leadership to blossom. That's definitely true, but I say it's even more significant for the vote of confidence it announces in support of the young (and really expensive) offensive coordinator.
After all, this is a guy who Jerry Jones seemingly hand picked as the eventual head coach of his 'pokes, paid millions of dollars to keep him around, and—if you're looking for Terrell's serious transgressions—those would seem to be scattered at Garrett's feet.
Hey, maybe the real teacher's pet is Jason Witten.
Nah...nobody loves tight ends that much. No, the real culprits here are the usual suspects: Jerry Jones and Terrell Owens. It was the egomaniacal nature of both that made this scenario a loser from the get-go.
It's Jerry's fault for believing the mystique of Dallas could conquer even the gnarliest self-lover the League has ever seen and it is Owens' fault for being so infatuated with himself, for having his head so far up his own posterior that he couldn't see the tremendous talent/opportunity he was wasting.
And it's been wasted, make no mistake about it. That's why, when the dust settles, I really like the move. A lot.
When you have all that operating budget, it makes no sense to bring in a headache like Owens so ditching one has to make perfect sense. If you can afford to grab a bunch of it, why compromise harmony when there's plenty of talent on the market without the incidental costs? You can't separate the two—a player's value is the product of the entire package.
And Terrell Owens' ego is simply beyond any physical talent he could ever bring to bear on the field. It always has been. The dude cannot be good enough on the field to offset the carnage he wreaks in the clubhouse, plain and simple.
That's saying somthin' because homeboy could really run down the pigskin in his prime.
But therein lies the other hidden gem to this move—Terrell Owens is 35 and he is playing in the National Football League. This is not Major League Baseball; this is not a game that frequently features excellence aged close to 40 years. Even a workaholic like Owens will start losing a step here, an edge there.
Some say he already has. Jerry Jones is apparently one of them—all the bluster to the contrary.
When that happens, you're best clear of the implosion that will follow because athletes are typically the last to acknowledge such news and the denial is usually a pretty ugly affair. I sincerely doubt the process would have been any different for Terrell Owens.
Now, Dallas has no such worry.
The franchise can go with Patrick Crayton and Roy Williams (who has physical tools approximating Owens' and is only 27) or they can bring in some new talent at the position. I happen to think wide receiver is one of the most highly overrated positions in the NFL.
I know a great receiver can really help your club, but I think there are lots of receivers in the NFL with the capacity to be great if put in the right situation. And a lot of them will probably be intrigued at the situation in Big D.
There's a whole lotta right down there, especially now that TO is history. As for the Dallas fans hoping this might just be a restructuring move, that Owens will be re-signed in the near future, I doubt it.
Owen's ego doesn't allow for that. At least it doesn't allow for such intentions to be kept secret. If he's doing something for the greater good, you better believe we're all gonna know about it.
Nope, I think Terrell Owens will be wearing a new uniform next year and I have no idea which one it will be. If Dallas doesn't want your sideshow, who will? Surely someone, but I don't know and I don't care.
I don't care because Terrell Owens is many things, but not a winner.
You simply can't make that argument—he's been on talented teams and driven them to despair, not to the Promised Land. Dallas is better off without him. Tony Romo is much better off without him. And Jason Garrett has a chance now that Terrell will be someone else's problem.
Tony's ability isn't what's questioned—it's his ability to rally the troops and get the job done when it must be done. Terrell Owens was not helping in that regard, which means he was hurting. Not anymore.
It's Tony Romo's team and Jason Garrett will have a firmer hold on the situation without Owens yanking at the reins in every way, at every chance.
This is Addition by Subtraction 101.
The Dallas Cowboys seem to be a Super Bowl favorite every year. With no more Terrell Owens in the picture for 2009-2010, that hype will have a much better chance of coming to fruition.
Not that I disagree with the sanity of the move.
It's just that Jerry Jones and the 'boys jumped aboard this train wreck with eyes wide open. They can't claim ignorance to TO's rep for being a team-killer. Not when they picked him off the scrap heap where the Philadelphia Eagles had freshly deposited him.
Not when those Iggles unwisely took TO off the hands of the San Francisco 49ers for pennies on the millions of dollars.
So why cut him? Why now? Owens had been a comparable angel in Dallas when his tenure in Big D is assessed next to the stints in Philly and the City. Sure he threw a couple not-so-subtle barbs at Tony Romo and Jason Garrett.
Those were Hallmark greetings relative to what he did to former versions. This is a guy who once openly questioned Jeff Garcia's sexuality and tried to hang a Super Bowl loss around Donovan McNabb's shoulders.
To me, the move indicates one of two things, possibly both: (A) Jerry Jones sincerely believes in Romo and is going to give the kid every shot to succeed (smart); and/or (B) Jones is almost as whole-heartedly behind Garrett (jury's still out on that one).
People keep pointing out how this means that Romo will have a clear locker room, ready for his divine leadership to blossom. That's definitely true, but I say it's even more significant for the vote of confidence it announces in support of the young (and really expensive) offensive coordinator.
After all, this is a guy who Jerry Jones seemingly hand picked as the eventual head coach of his 'pokes, paid millions of dollars to keep him around, and—if you're looking for Terrell's serious transgressions—those would seem to be scattered at Garrett's feet.
Hey, maybe the real teacher's pet is Jason Witten.
Nah...nobody loves tight ends that much. No, the real culprits here are the usual suspects: Jerry Jones and Terrell Owens. It was the egomaniacal nature of both that made this scenario a loser from the get-go.
It's Jerry's fault for believing the mystique of Dallas could conquer even the gnarliest self-lover the League has ever seen and it is Owens' fault for being so infatuated with himself, for having his head so far up his own posterior that he couldn't see the tremendous talent/opportunity he was wasting.
And it's been wasted, make no mistake about it. That's why, when the dust settles, I really like the move. A lot.
When you have all that operating budget, it makes no sense to bring in a headache like Owens so ditching one has to make perfect sense. If you can afford to grab a bunch of it, why compromise harmony when there's plenty of talent on the market without the incidental costs? You can't separate the two—a player's value is the product of the entire package.
And Terrell Owens' ego is simply beyond any physical talent he could ever bring to bear on the field. It always has been. The dude cannot be good enough on the field to offset the carnage he wreaks in the clubhouse, plain and simple.
That's saying somthin' because homeboy could really run down the pigskin in his prime.
But therein lies the other hidden gem to this move—Terrell Owens is 35 and he is playing in the National Football League. This is not Major League Baseball; this is not a game that frequently features excellence aged close to 40 years. Even a workaholic like Owens will start losing a step here, an edge there.
Some say he already has. Jerry Jones is apparently one of them—all the bluster to the contrary.
When that happens, you're best clear of the implosion that will follow because athletes are typically the last to acknowledge such news and the denial is usually a pretty ugly affair. I sincerely doubt the process would have been any different for Terrell Owens.
Now, Dallas has no such worry.
The franchise can go with Patrick Crayton and Roy Williams (who has physical tools approximating Owens' and is only 27) or they can bring in some new talent at the position. I happen to think wide receiver is one of the most highly overrated positions in the NFL.
I know a great receiver can really help your club, but I think there are lots of receivers in the NFL with the capacity to be great if put in the right situation. And a lot of them will probably be intrigued at the situation in Big D.
There's a whole lotta right down there, especially now that TO is history. As for the Dallas fans hoping this might just be a restructuring move, that Owens will be re-signed in the near future, I doubt it.
Owen's ego doesn't allow for that. At least it doesn't allow for such intentions to be kept secret. If he's doing something for the greater good, you better believe we're all gonna know about it.
Nope, I think Terrell Owens will be wearing a new uniform next year and I have no idea which one it will be. If Dallas doesn't want your sideshow, who will? Surely someone, but I don't know and I don't care.
I don't care because Terrell Owens is many things, but not a winner.
You simply can't make that argument—he's been on talented teams and driven them to despair, not to the Promised Land. Dallas is better off without him. Tony Romo is much better off without him. And Jason Garrett has a chance now that Terrell will be someone else's problem.
Tony's ability isn't what's questioned—it's his ability to rally the troops and get the job done when it must be done. Terrell Owens was not helping in that regard, which means he was hurting. Not anymore.
It's Tony Romo's team and Jason Garrett will have a firmer hold on the situation without Owens yanking at the reins in every way, at every chance.
This is Addition by Subtraction 101.
The Dallas Cowboys seem to be a Super Bowl favorite every year. With no more Terrell Owens in the picture for 2009-2010, that hype will have a much better chance of coming to fruition.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
The New York Mets' 2009 Slightly Premature Preview
When glimpsing the National League East from afar, I was having a hard time deciding who my favorite would be. I sincerely rooted for the Philadelphia Phillies to win the World Series in 2008 once my beloved San Francisco Giants had played their last game so I'd naturally lean the Phightin's way in 2009.
Except it's so hard to have another stellar year when you have those crosshairs stapled to your back. Plus the New York Mets had an active and intelligent offseason.
You can see I was gradually talking myself into betting on the Mets. Then I looked more closely at their roster...and decided I'm sticking with the Phils.
Not that Gotham's Senior Circuit representative isn't stacked—the Mets most certainly have loads of talent and the vast majority of it is proven. It's just the level isn't overwhelming and New York (for whatever reason) seems to need that level to make the postseason in recent years.
The last two campaigns have seen one epic collapse and another frail finish despite having a considerable amount of money invested in a considerable amount of talent. However, the Metropolitans have tended to cluster the talent/money in one area and that can probably account for the ultimate failures of the 2007/2008 squads.
After spending on offense and then on starting pitching, New York got around to addressing the bullpen this winter. Omar Minaya brought in Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz to shore up 2008's Achilles' heel.
And that's putting it gently—the Mets' "relief" last year was spectacularly bad once Billy Wagner went down, just rank. It needed a ton of help and getting two elite closers should be just what the doctor ordered.
Still, there are some surprising vulnerabilities in what should be one of the NL's top three teams this season:
Projected starting lineup
Catcher—Brian Schneider/Ramon Castro
First base—Carlos Delgado
Second base—Luis Castillo
Third base—David Wright
Shortstop—Jose Reyes
Left field—Daniel Murphy
Center field—Carlos Beltran
Right field—Ryan Church
This was my first surprise because that lineup isn't as ferocious as I was expecting. The Schneider/Castro combo looks like the Mets are punting offense from the backstop and that's not a horrible idea considering most teams end up inadvertently doing that anyway. But the outfield is underwhelming even if Murphy can stretch that ~.300 average over a full season.
And yet, Wright/Beltran/Reyes makes this a very good offense in the NL. If Delgado can squeeze another year out of his revitalization, it's an elite offense.
Starting rotation
Ace—Johan Santana (L)
Second spot—John Maine (R)
Third spot—Oliver Perez (L)
Fourth spot—Mike Plefrey (R)
Fifth spot—Livan Hernandez (R)/Tim Redding (R)/Freddy Garcia (R)
Again, not as dominating as I was expecting. And if Santana misses any substantial time, look out. The lefty led the team in wins, earned run average, WHIP, innings pitched, and strikeouts in 2008 so it's safe to say the starting rotation absolutely must feature a healthy Johan Santana. Maine is unwisely overlooked considering he pitched with a damaged shoulder in 2008 and had decent success. Perez will give you two things for sure: Ks and walks—the ratio will decide his year.
Pelfrey showed promise and the fifth spot looks to be a quagmire of discarded arms.
Bullpen
Closer—Francisco Rodriguez (R)
Set-up—J.J. Putz (R)
Set-up—Eddie Kuntz (R)
Set-up_Pedro Feliciano (L)
Set-up—Duaner Sanchez (R)
Set-up—Ron Villone (L)
That is an ample sufficiency of Major League ability right there. For most teams. It just seems to be the case that the New York Mets are not most teams—they don't seem to get any help from Lady Luck or the baseball gods (not since 1986 at least) so they need to make up for that absence with outstanding capacity for performance.
And, considering the Phillies have their share, I don't think New York has enough.
On offense, the picture is wonderful as long as you focus on the top four threats. David Wright is superlative in every sense of the word, but this isn't a David Wright piece so I'll let the offensive numbers summarize his excellence—a .302 average, 42 doubles, 33 home runs, 115 runs scored, 124 runs batted in, 15 stolen bases, a .390 on-base percentage, and a .924 OPS. And he plays Gold Glove caliber defense at the hot corner.
At the tender age of 26, David Wright is the best third baseman in the National League. So the Mets have that going for them.
New York also has Jose Reyes, who is almost as polished as Wright and is a year younger. Reyes doesn't flash the same power as his partner on the left side of the infield, but he runs circles around a pretty spry David Wright—.297, 37 doubles, 19 triples, 16 HRs, 114 runs, 68 RBI, 56 SBs, .358 OBP, .833 OPS. In modern baseball, 19 triples and 56 swipes are rockstar numbers for those categories.
Although I prefer Hanley Ramirez, you could argue Jose Reyes is the best shortstop in the NL.
But the picture starts getting gloomier here and it starts with Father Time. He is a formidable and additional opponent the Mets must face every day because, on paper, New York is expecting a lot from an aging pair of Carloses: 31-year-old Beltran (who's older than that because he's always been a bit on the fragile side) and 36-year-old Delgado.
Beltran's certainly got more run in him and there's no reason to expect a sharp decline from his 2008 final tally of a .284 average with 40 doubles, 27 bombs, 116 runs, 112 RBI, 25 steals, a .376 OBP, and an .876 OPS. But, sooner or later, a decline is coming and he did play 161 games in 2008.
Delgado's the bigger concern, though, because of his advanced age. I say there's a decent chance that New York doesn't see him hit .271 with 32 doubles, 38 HRs, 96 runs, 115 RBI, a .353 OBP, and an .871 OPS in '09.
If he does—after turning 37 in June—what the hell are the Los Angeles Dodgers paying Manny Ramirez all that money for?
And the clouds get even more foreboding once you move out of the safe harbor of Wright/Reyes/Beltran/Delgado.
Like I said, the Mets appear to be punting the catching spot in terms of offense. And it would appear they're doing the same at second base—although New York did try to ditch Luis Castillo (shockingly to no avail). Ryan Church is alright, but something about the guy smacks of performance-enhancers—I guess it's just the suspicion that a guy with a lot of natural get-up-and-go would seem to benefit exponentially more from PEDs.
Daniel Murphy's only 23 and did hit .313 in 131 at-bats last year—that's reason to be optimistic. Unfortunately, if he or Church can't hack it, the Mets can only turn to Fernando Tatis, Bobby Kielty, Jeremy Reed, or Angel Pagan. That's not much of a safety net.
Still, with those four guys leading the way, the offense shouldn't be a problem for New York.
The pitching is really what gave me pause.
While I like John Maine and Mike Pelfrey, even I won't say they're top of the rotation guys. And Oliver Perez is scary if you ask me—he might have no-hit stuff, but he doesn't seem to be making as much progress as you'd hope as far as getting a harness on his electricity. Plus he's rep'd by Scott Boras, which makes me twice as suspicious.
God forbid the fifth spot goes to Livan Hernandez. Yikes. But the alternatives aren't exactly spell-binding—I'm afraid Freddy Garcia may be done (or at least another several months from fighting his way back) and Tim Redding used to pitch for the Washington Nationals. I think we're done here.
If Johan Santana's preseason rattle is more than just that, the Mets are staring down the wrong end of a gun.
Remove his 16-7 record, 234+ innings pitched, 206 Ks against only 63 walks, 1.15 WHIP, and 2.53 ERA from New York's pitching scene and what's left is not pretty. Without Santana, that revamped bullpen doesn't mean squat.
With him, though, the pitching staff could be a sight to behold (except for Livan).
Because that bullpen will help keep the shine on the starters for a long time.
K-Rod might not be all his record is cracked up to be, but he's still one of the best at slamming the door in the last frame. And J.J. Putz was on his way to that same eschelon before his train got momentarily derailed recently. I've always been impressed by Duaner Sanchez and the lefties aren't too shabby (Pedro Feliciano and Ron Villone) either.
Those are a lot of quality arms and they should turn 2008's greatest weakness into 2009's greatest strength. If Santana can miss just that first start and the four big guns get some unexpected help, the New York Mets could carry the National League flag into the World Series.
Even if they can't unseat the champs from atop the NL East roost, this squad should be your 2009 National League Wild Card. With all that money in all three primary areas of baseball interest, there are truly no more excuses for anything less.
But, remember, these are the Mets.
Except it's so hard to have another stellar year when you have those crosshairs stapled to your back. Plus the New York Mets had an active and intelligent offseason.
You can see I was gradually talking myself into betting on the Mets. Then I looked more closely at their roster...and decided I'm sticking with the Phils.
Not that Gotham's Senior Circuit representative isn't stacked—the Mets most certainly have loads of talent and the vast majority of it is proven. It's just the level isn't overwhelming and New York (for whatever reason) seems to need that level to make the postseason in recent years.
The last two campaigns have seen one epic collapse and another frail finish despite having a considerable amount of money invested in a considerable amount of talent. However, the Metropolitans have tended to cluster the talent/money in one area and that can probably account for the ultimate failures of the 2007/2008 squads.
After spending on offense and then on starting pitching, New York got around to addressing the bullpen this winter. Omar Minaya brought in Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz to shore up 2008's Achilles' heel.
And that's putting it gently—the Mets' "relief" last year was spectacularly bad once Billy Wagner went down, just rank. It needed a ton of help and getting two elite closers should be just what the doctor ordered.
Still, there are some surprising vulnerabilities in what should be one of the NL's top three teams this season:
Projected starting lineup
Catcher—Brian Schneider/Ramon Castro
First base—Carlos Delgado
Second base—Luis Castillo
Third base—David Wright
Shortstop—Jose Reyes
Left field—Daniel Murphy
Center field—Carlos Beltran
Right field—Ryan Church
This was my first surprise because that lineup isn't as ferocious as I was expecting. The Schneider/Castro combo looks like the Mets are punting offense from the backstop and that's not a horrible idea considering most teams end up inadvertently doing that anyway. But the outfield is underwhelming even if Murphy can stretch that ~.300 average over a full season.
And yet, Wright/Beltran/Reyes makes this a very good offense in the NL. If Delgado can squeeze another year out of his revitalization, it's an elite offense.
Starting rotation
Ace—Johan Santana (L)
Second spot—John Maine (R)
Third spot—Oliver Perez (L)
Fourth spot—Mike Plefrey (R)
Fifth spot—Livan Hernandez (R)/Tim Redding (R)/Freddy Garcia (R)
Again, not as dominating as I was expecting. And if Santana misses any substantial time, look out. The lefty led the team in wins, earned run average, WHIP, innings pitched, and strikeouts in 2008 so it's safe to say the starting rotation absolutely must feature a healthy Johan Santana. Maine is unwisely overlooked considering he pitched with a damaged shoulder in 2008 and had decent success. Perez will give you two things for sure: Ks and walks—the ratio will decide his year.
Pelfrey showed promise and the fifth spot looks to be a quagmire of discarded arms.
Bullpen
Closer—Francisco Rodriguez (R)
Set-up—J.J. Putz (R)
Set-up—Eddie Kuntz (R)
Set-up_Pedro Feliciano (L)
Set-up—Duaner Sanchez (R)
Set-up—Ron Villone (L)
That is an ample sufficiency of Major League ability right there. For most teams. It just seems to be the case that the New York Mets are not most teams—they don't seem to get any help from Lady Luck or the baseball gods (not since 1986 at least) so they need to make up for that absence with outstanding capacity for performance.
And, considering the Phillies have their share, I don't think New York has enough.
On offense, the picture is wonderful as long as you focus on the top four threats. David Wright is superlative in every sense of the word, but this isn't a David Wright piece so I'll let the offensive numbers summarize his excellence—a .302 average, 42 doubles, 33 home runs, 115 runs scored, 124 runs batted in, 15 stolen bases, a .390 on-base percentage, and a .924 OPS. And he plays Gold Glove caliber defense at the hot corner.
At the tender age of 26, David Wright is the best third baseman in the National League. So the Mets have that going for them.
New York also has Jose Reyes, who is almost as polished as Wright and is a year younger. Reyes doesn't flash the same power as his partner on the left side of the infield, but he runs circles around a pretty spry David Wright—.297, 37 doubles, 19 triples, 16 HRs, 114 runs, 68 RBI, 56 SBs, .358 OBP, .833 OPS. In modern baseball, 19 triples and 56 swipes are rockstar numbers for those categories.
Although I prefer Hanley Ramirez, you could argue Jose Reyes is the best shortstop in the NL.
But the picture starts getting gloomier here and it starts with Father Time. He is a formidable and additional opponent the Mets must face every day because, on paper, New York is expecting a lot from an aging pair of Carloses: 31-year-old Beltran (who's older than that because he's always been a bit on the fragile side) and 36-year-old Delgado.
Beltran's certainly got more run in him and there's no reason to expect a sharp decline from his 2008 final tally of a .284 average with 40 doubles, 27 bombs, 116 runs, 112 RBI, 25 steals, a .376 OBP, and an .876 OPS. But, sooner or later, a decline is coming and he did play 161 games in 2008.
Delgado's the bigger concern, though, because of his advanced age. I say there's a decent chance that New York doesn't see him hit .271 with 32 doubles, 38 HRs, 96 runs, 115 RBI, a .353 OBP, and an .871 OPS in '09.
If he does—after turning 37 in June—what the hell are the Los Angeles Dodgers paying Manny Ramirez all that money for?
And the clouds get even more foreboding once you move out of the safe harbor of Wright/Reyes/Beltran/Delgado.
Like I said, the Mets appear to be punting the catching spot in terms of offense. And it would appear they're doing the same at second base—although New York did try to ditch Luis Castillo (shockingly to no avail). Ryan Church is alright, but something about the guy smacks of performance-enhancers—I guess it's just the suspicion that a guy with a lot of natural get-up-and-go would seem to benefit exponentially more from PEDs.
Daniel Murphy's only 23 and did hit .313 in 131 at-bats last year—that's reason to be optimistic. Unfortunately, if he or Church can't hack it, the Mets can only turn to Fernando Tatis, Bobby Kielty, Jeremy Reed, or Angel Pagan. That's not much of a safety net.
Still, with those four guys leading the way, the offense shouldn't be a problem for New York.
The pitching is really what gave me pause.
While I like John Maine and Mike Pelfrey, even I won't say they're top of the rotation guys. And Oliver Perez is scary if you ask me—he might have no-hit stuff, but he doesn't seem to be making as much progress as you'd hope as far as getting a harness on his electricity. Plus he's rep'd by Scott Boras, which makes me twice as suspicious.
God forbid the fifth spot goes to Livan Hernandez. Yikes. But the alternatives aren't exactly spell-binding—I'm afraid Freddy Garcia may be done (or at least another several months from fighting his way back) and Tim Redding used to pitch for the Washington Nationals. I think we're done here.
If Johan Santana's preseason rattle is more than just that, the Mets are staring down the wrong end of a gun.
Remove his 16-7 record, 234+ innings pitched, 206 Ks against only 63 walks, 1.15 WHIP, and 2.53 ERA from New York's pitching scene and what's left is not pretty. Without Santana, that revamped bullpen doesn't mean squat.
With him, though, the pitching staff could be a sight to behold (except for Livan).
Because that bullpen will help keep the shine on the starters for a long time.
K-Rod might not be all his record is cracked up to be, but he's still one of the best at slamming the door in the last frame. And J.J. Putz was on his way to that same eschelon before his train got momentarily derailed recently. I've always been impressed by Duaner Sanchez and the lefties aren't too shabby (Pedro Feliciano and Ron Villone) either.
Those are a lot of quality arms and they should turn 2008's greatest weakness into 2009's greatest strength. If Santana can miss just that first start and the four big guns get some unexpected help, the New York Mets could carry the National League flag into the World Series.
Even if they can't unseat the champs from atop the NL East roost, this squad should be your 2009 National League Wild Card. With all that money in all three primary areas of baseball interest, there are truly no more excuses for anything less.
But, remember, these are the Mets.
The Atlanta Braves' 2009 Slightly Premature Preview
The vast majority of the National League is very lopsided especially in the Central and West. I've previewed all the teams on both divisions and my very non-expert opinion is that only the Chicago Cubs have a genuine shot at the World Series. That's not to say nobody else from the Senior Circuit's weaker divisions could turn into a pleasant 2009 surprise.
This is still Major League Baseball—its history has proven time and again that anything can happen. Anyone can win, even the Winter Classic.
BUT the Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Colorado Rockies all have substantial issues in the rotation despite having rugged offenses (potentially).
The San Francisco Giants are the mirror image—stellar pitching staff and absolutely bupkus in the batter's box if we're being practical.
The San Diego Padres are just a stinking pile at this point while the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds each have a legit shot at being that surprise I mentioned. But everything must click just so.
Fortunately for Fox—the airer of the World Series—there's the NL East. Otherwise, that particular tete-a-tete probably wouldn't be watching too closely unless you're a true baseball fan.
Rather than tackle the favorites right away, I'm starting with the Atlanta Braves because there seems to be a lot of buzz around this team. Buzz that I don't totally understand considering their offseason was more conspicuous for the deals that didn't get done.
Of course, there are some nice new (and expensive) pieces in the ATL. Here's how they should fit into the picture:
Projected starting lineup
Catcher—Brian McCann
First base—Casey Kotchman
Second base—Kelly Johnson
Third base—Chipper Jones
Shortstop—Yunel Escobar
Left field—Garret Anderson
Center field—Josh Anderson
Right field—Jeff Francoeur
Like most things in MLB heading into Spring Training, that lineup probably looks better than it will be. Who knows what Atlanta will get from Francoeur and Garret Anderson. Jones is getting increasingly frail with time and Josh Anderson is a bit unproven. Of course, the Braves do have Matt Diaz in reserve in case Francoeur continues his sharp decline or if/when Anderson succumbs to the perils of hitting 37 before the All-Star break.
I bought into the Diaz hype at one point—not so much anymore.
Starting rotation
Ace—Derek Lowe (R)
Second spot—Javier Vazquez (R)
Third spot—Jair Jurjens (R)
Fourth spot—Kenshin Kawakami (R)
Fifth spot—Tom Glavine (L)
Considering what the 2008 rotation looked like, the 2009 represents a huge upgrade. The bad news is that doesn't mean a ton. Lowe isn't a typical ace although Atlanta is paying him like one—he's more steady than spectacular and spectacular is what you usually pay an ace for. Vazquez can be a strikeout machine, but I think it's another slight stretch to call him a number two starter.
I actually like the back-end of the rotation better than the front, but I'll get to that. And Jorge Campillo's ready to go if anyone goes down with an injury or sub-par performance.
Bullpen
Closer—Mike Gonzalez (L)
Set-up—Peter Moylan (R)
Set-up—Manny Acosta (R)
Set-up—Boone Logan (L)
Set-up—Buddy Carlyle (R)
It all kinda unravels there at the end, doesn't it?
As usual, let's hit the good right away and that means—first and foremost—Brian McCann. If you're in the habit of expecting production from all positions, McCann's your guy behind the plate. In 2008, he hit .301 with 42 doubles, 23 home runs, 68 runs scored, 87 runs batted in, a .373 on-base percentage, and an .896 OPS. From catcher. Oh, and he's only 25.
Enough said.
Chipper Jones would be the best thing about this club except he'll be 37 soon after Opening Day and age catches up with everyone. With increased scrutiny directed towards performance-enhancing drugs, age might start nabbing Major Leaguers faster than has been the case in recent years. But Larry's one of the guys I'd expect might be clean and he's not exactly showing signs of slowing down—'08 saw him limp to a .364 average, 24 doubles, 22 HRs, 82 runs, 75 RBI, a .470 OBP, and a 1.044 OPS in just 439 ABs.
Not too shabby for an old dude.
But here's where the red flags starting popping up.
Kelly Johnson finished with a flourish in '08, but his final line—.287, 39 doubles, 12 bombs, 86 runs, 69 RBI, 11 stolen bases, a .349 OBP, and a .795 OPS—still didn't result in the progress baseball people expected. At 27, that could be momentary pause or real trouble.
The same can be said for Yunel Escobar and Casey Kotchman.
Escobar turn in a .288 average, 24 doubles, 10 HRs, 71 runs, 60 RBI, a .366 OBP, and a .766 OPS at the age of 26. Kotchman (a newly minted 26) spent time in both the American League and NL so perhaps it's not totally fair to judge him on '08's body of work, which was a .272 average, 28 doubles, 14 taters, 65 runs, 74 RBI, a .328 OBP, and a .738 OPS.
Those numbers aren't bad, but neither set represents the kind of arc you want to see in young talent. It's the kind of arc that makes a plateau look a lot more likely than the leap to stardom.
I was gonna slaughter Josh Anderson because I'd never heard of the guy, but he put up some nice little numbers in just over 130 ABs so I'll reserve judgment.
Jeff Francoeur is a mess and has been for the last two years. What he'll give Atlanta is anybody's guess—it could be 30 bombs and a .290 average or he could struggle to hit his weight.
But forget Francoeur and the other unknowns on that side of the equation, the Braves' real issues are in the pitching staff.
I've covered the front end above, so let's skip to the back three.
For whatever reason, people keep singing the praises of these Japanese imports. If Kenshin Kawakami is so great, why wasn't he brought over before Daisuke Matsuzaka? Or Hiroki Kuroda? And neither of those guys has been unstoppable (don't give me Dice-K because he's working with one of the safest nets in MLB).
The newest Japanese oddity is 33, missed time in 2008 with an injury, and hails from an admitted pitcher's park in Japan. Color me skeptical.
I actually like Jair Jurjens as the third guy in the rotation and Tom Glavine should be better than most fives, but that doesn't make up for the overall mediocrity of the rotation.
And the bullpen could be as atrocious as it was last year. Atlanta's gonna need Rafael Soriano to bounce back from injury and to be as good as new because Mike Gonzalez just won't last the whole season without missing time.
How comfortable can you be entering the season with a closer who's never thrown more than 54 innings in a season over the course of six years? And he hasn't even amassed that measly number in the last two years.
The rest of the 'pen is as average as they come.
For all of Atlanta's weaknesses and vulnerabilities, the real bit of bad luck for the Braves is that they reside in the NL East. Had they landed in the NL Central or West, this team would probably be favored to make the playoffs. At the very least, they'd be the Cubbies' fiercest competition.
But in the National League's stoutest division? They're looking at a steep uphill climb and possibly a long year of being not quite good enough.
This is still Major League Baseball—its history has proven time and again that anything can happen. Anyone can win, even the Winter Classic.
BUT the Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Colorado Rockies all have substantial issues in the rotation despite having rugged offenses (potentially).
The San Francisco Giants are the mirror image—stellar pitching staff and absolutely bupkus in the batter's box if we're being practical.
The San Diego Padres are just a stinking pile at this point while the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds each have a legit shot at being that surprise I mentioned. But everything must click just so.
Fortunately for Fox—the airer of the World Series—there's the NL East. Otherwise, that particular tete-a-tete probably wouldn't be watching too closely unless you're a true baseball fan.
Rather than tackle the favorites right away, I'm starting with the Atlanta Braves because there seems to be a lot of buzz around this team. Buzz that I don't totally understand considering their offseason was more conspicuous for the deals that didn't get done.
Of course, there are some nice new (and expensive) pieces in the ATL. Here's how they should fit into the picture:
Projected starting lineup
Catcher—Brian McCann
First base—Casey Kotchman
Second base—Kelly Johnson
Third base—Chipper Jones
Shortstop—Yunel Escobar
Left field—Garret Anderson
Center field—Josh Anderson
Right field—Jeff Francoeur
Like most things in MLB heading into Spring Training, that lineup probably looks better than it will be. Who knows what Atlanta will get from Francoeur and Garret Anderson. Jones is getting increasingly frail with time and Josh Anderson is a bit unproven. Of course, the Braves do have Matt Diaz in reserve in case Francoeur continues his sharp decline or if/when Anderson succumbs to the perils of hitting 37 before the All-Star break.
I bought into the Diaz hype at one point—not so much anymore.
Starting rotation
Ace—Derek Lowe (R)
Second spot—Javier Vazquez (R)
Third spot—Jair Jurjens (R)
Fourth spot—Kenshin Kawakami (R)
Fifth spot—Tom Glavine (L)
Considering what the 2008 rotation looked like, the 2009 represents a huge upgrade. The bad news is that doesn't mean a ton. Lowe isn't a typical ace although Atlanta is paying him like one—he's more steady than spectacular and spectacular is what you usually pay an ace for. Vazquez can be a strikeout machine, but I think it's another slight stretch to call him a number two starter.
I actually like the back-end of the rotation better than the front, but I'll get to that. And Jorge Campillo's ready to go if anyone goes down with an injury or sub-par performance.
Bullpen
Closer—Mike Gonzalez (L)
Set-up—Peter Moylan (R)
Set-up—Manny Acosta (R)
Set-up—Boone Logan (L)
Set-up—Buddy Carlyle (R)
It all kinda unravels there at the end, doesn't it?
As usual, let's hit the good right away and that means—first and foremost—Brian McCann. If you're in the habit of expecting production from all positions, McCann's your guy behind the plate. In 2008, he hit .301 with 42 doubles, 23 home runs, 68 runs scored, 87 runs batted in, a .373 on-base percentage, and an .896 OPS. From catcher. Oh, and he's only 25.
Enough said.
Chipper Jones would be the best thing about this club except he'll be 37 soon after Opening Day and age catches up with everyone. With increased scrutiny directed towards performance-enhancing drugs, age might start nabbing Major Leaguers faster than has been the case in recent years. But Larry's one of the guys I'd expect might be clean and he's not exactly showing signs of slowing down—'08 saw him limp to a .364 average, 24 doubles, 22 HRs, 82 runs, 75 RBI, a .470 OBP, and a 1.044 OPS in just 439 ABs.
Not too shabby for an old dude.
But here's where the red flags starting popping up.
Kelly Johnson finished with a flourish in '08, but his final line—.287, 39 doubles, 12 bombs, 86 runs, 69 RBI, 11 stolen bases, a .349 OBP, and a .795 OPS—still didn't result in the progress baseball people expected. At 27, that could be momentary pause or real trouble.
The same can be said for Yunel Escobar and Casey Kotchman.
Escobar turn in a .288 average, 24 doubles, 10 HRs, 71 runs, 60 RBI, a .366 OBP, and a .766 OPS at the age of 26. Kotchman (a newly minted 26) spent time in both the American League and NL so perhaps it's not totally fair to judge him on '08's body of work, which was a .272 average, 28 doubles, 14 taters, 65 runs, 74 RBI, a .328 OBP, and a .738 OPS.
Those numbers aren't bad, but neither set represents the kind of arc you want to see in young talent. It's the kind of arc that makes a plateau look a lot more likely than the leap to stardom.
I was gonna slaughter Josh Anderson because I'd never heard of the guy, but he put up some nice little numbers in just over 130 ABs so I'll reserve judgment.
Jeff Francoeur is a mess and has been for the last two years. What he'll give Atlanta is anybody's guess—it could be 30 bombs and a .290 average or he could struggle to hit his weight.
But forget Francoeur and the other unknowns on that side of the equation, the Braves' real issues are in the pitching staff.
I've covered the front end above, so let's skip to the back three.
For whatever reason, people keep singing the praises of these Japanese imports. If Kenshin Kawakami is so great, why wasn't he brought over before Daisuke Matsuzaka? Or Hiroki Kuroda? And neither of those guys has been unstoppable (don't give me Dice-K because he's working with one of the safest nets in MLB).
The newest Japanese oddity is 33, missed time in 2008 with an injury, and hails from an admitted pitcher's park in Japan. Color me skeptical.
I actually like Jair Jurjens as the third guy in the rotation and Tom Glavine should be better than most fives, but that doesn't make up for the overall mediocrity of the rotation.
And the bullpen could be as atrocious as it was last year. Atlanta's gonna need Rafael Soriano to bounce back from injury and to be as good as new because Mike Gonzalez just won't last the whole season without missing time.
How comfortable can you be entering the season with a closer who's never thrown more than 54 innings in a season over the course of six years? And he hasn't even amassed that measly number in the last two years.
The rest of the 'pen is as average as they come.
For all of Atlanta's weaknesses and vulnerabilities, the real bit of bad luck for the Braves is that they reside in the NL East. Had they landed in the NL Central or West, this team would probably be favored to make the playoffs. At the very least, they'd be the Cubbies' fiercest competition.
But in the National League's stoutest division? They're looking at a steep uphill climb and possibly a long year of being not quite good enough.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Division Debate: Your Lead's Safer in SF Than in Colorado
For my part in the Division Debate Series between Community Leaders of division rivals, I've been paired up against Anthony Masterson and we've been handed the live grenade that is each team's bullpen. For Anthony's sake, the powers-that-be have capped the issue at the trio most critical to slamming the door at the end of ballgames.
If you look at the entire bullpen, this becomes a thorough romp. Confining the discussion to the top three firemen at least keeps it close.
For my beloved San Francisco Giants, that means the following three relievers: closer Brian Wilson, newly-acquired Jeremy Affeldt, and newly-acquired Bobby Howry—although I could make a strong argument for either Alex Hinshaw or Sergio Romo as the third musketeer.
For the poor Colorado Rockies, that means this motley crew: closer Huston Street, deposed 2008 closer Manny Corpas, and Taylor Buchholz (and he's apparently on the shelf for the start of the year so I'll look at Jason Grilli and ).
Before I heap more misery upon the Rox, let me first say that I would be arguing in favor of SF's trio even if they were Dustin Hermanson, William VanLandingham, and Joe Roa.
It just so happens that—bluster aside—I really do think SF's bullpen is the objectively superior of the two. Take a look:
Seventh Inning Guys (or Secondary Set-Up Men)—Buchholz versus Howry
This is the spot that helps the Rockies' cause the most because Taylor Buchholz is the real deal and coming off a fine season whereas Bobby Howry—although more proven—is coming off his first rugged year in a while.
Despite fighting the thin-air demons at Coors Field on a regular basis, Buchholz posted the following line in 2008—a 2.17 earned run average, a 0.95 WHIP, 56 strikeouts against 18 walks, and only five home runs surrendered in 66+ innings pitched over the course of 63 games. I repeat, while playing his home games in Denver.
And the kid is only 27. Whoa.
But he's hurt and a sprained ligament in your pitching elbow is always horrible news. That's the kind of insidious injury that becomes Tommy John surgery when nobody's looking and, suddenly, the guy's MIA for a year or so.
Regardless of the long-term situation, Taylor's down for at least a month and that means the most reliable/dominating arm from last season is missing—to be replaced by Jason Grilli and/or Alan Embree.
Both guys are decent enough.
Grilli posted a sub-3.00 ERA after coming over from the Detroit Tigers early last season and only gave up a single bomb in 61+ IP, but his WHIP of 1.40 and K:BB ratio of less than 2:1 suggest his success might be fleeting. Embree's a reliable lefty specialist and every 'pen needs one of those.
But neither is gonna bring the gnarliness that Buchholz supplied.
Bobby Howry had a brutal '08 campaign for the Chicago Cubs, pitching to a 5.35 ERA with a WHIP north of 1.40, but those were uncharacteristic numbers compared to Howry's career numbers. Even in an obviously down year, the guy managed 59 Ks against only 13 walks.
His biggest bugaboo would appear to be the 13 taters given up in 70+ innings of work. At 35, Howry could be showing signs of a final breakdown or that homer total could be the product of the (un)Friendly Confines in Chicago.
Even if it is more than a one year anomally, the move to the more spacious park in San Francisco should bring the long ball total back to respectable levels and (hopefully) the extra confidence will shave some excess off both Howry's ERA and WHIP.
If not, SF still has the young duo of 26-year-old Sergio Romo—2.12 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 33 Ks, eight walks, three HRs in 34 IP last year—and 26-year-old Alex Hinshaw—3.40 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 47 Ks, 29 walks, five HRs in 39+ IP last year. Both guys should be ready to pick up any slack.
Hinshaw's numbers aren't much next to Romo's superlative work, but he's a funky lefty who kinda came apart at the end of the year so his stats are a bit misleading.
That's a lot to digest and, despite my natural lean towards SF, I'll give the edge to Colorado by assuming Buchholz will be right as rain by June. If he's gone longer than that, San Francisco takes this match-up easily.
EDGE: Colorado Rockies
Eighth Inning Guys (or Primary Set-Up Men)—Corpas versus Affeldt
Here's where the trouble really starts for the Rox.
Manny Corpas was absolutely electric in 2007, enough to wrestle closing duties away from the departed Brian Fuentes. Huge things were expected from the 26-year-old and he responded by totally crapping the bed in 2008.
The difference was simply night and day. His ERA doubled from 2.08 to 4.52, his WHIP jumped from 1.06 to 1.46, and he gave up 30 more hits in about two extra innings. Although the difference wasn't as drastic as above, Corpas gave up more walks, an extra homer, and whiffed fewer batters.
It was a global regression for the young righty.
Maybe he bounces back in 2009, maybe not. Relievers have a unpleasant little habit of requiring a change of scenery before they can recapture that elusive lightning in a bottle.
Jeremy Affeldt, on the other hand, put up another year of stellar work. His 2008 line—3.33 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 80 Ks against 25 walks, nine taters, and 78+ IP over 74 games—is impressive in a vacuum.
Turn that vacuum into the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, toss in the fact that Affeldt's a 30-year-old lefty, and the numbers become downright filthy.
Although Great American isn't quite a bandbox like a lot of the other parks in the National League Central, it can't be considered a pitcher's park like Pac Bell definitely is. That means his numbers should get even better when some of the fly balls find gloves instead of metal bleachers.
Plus, Affeldt's role is clearly defined whereas Corpas must have some designs on recapturing the closer's job. I say that limbo makes a bounce-back season from Colorado's Manny less likely.
If the Rockies get a version of Corpas closer to 2007 than to 2008, this one could be closer than it looks now.
Big Edge: San Francisco Giants
The Closers (or...the Closers)—Street versus Wilson
That sound you just heard was the Colorado bullpen wagon jettisoning all four wheels at once. And then landing on the horses that were pulling the freakin' thing.
Let's pretend the side-by-side was a dog-fight heading into the final bout. Shoot, you could even pretend the Rockies were a little bit in front.
The San Francisco Giants would still emerge from this round the clear winner. Brian Wilson is that much better than Huston Street. San Fran's closer would pull the entire bullpen ahead of Colorado's. He is that much better than Street.
Forget about all the peripherals, forget about all the really sophisticated metrics. For closers, there is only one stat that matters—save percentage. As in, how often did you blow the game when entrusted with a lead.
All the rest get skewed by poor performances in non-save opportunities or on the rare occasion things come apart at the seams in save chances.
Brian Wilson saw 47 save opportunities and failed to secure the win six times. So, while the 41 saves were very nice and his gaudy total at the break was certainly what garnered Wilson his All-Star nod, it was his 87 percent save rate that blows up my skirt.
All the more so because this is not a guy who was usually working with the max margin of three runs (or whatever your version of the max is). The Giants' anemic offense usually forced Wilson onto a tightrope without a net—blow the slim lead and those SF bats probably aren't gonna recoup your losses.
Flip over to Huston Street. While his peripherals are significantly better than Wilson's, check out the save percentage.
In only 25 save opportunities, Street blew seven leads. That would be one more than Wilson in 22 fewer chances. For those scoring at home, Huston registered 18 saves and a save percentage of 72.
Furthermore, Street has developed injury problems for two consecutive years now. Even though he's actually a year younger than Wilson, red flags are flying high regarding his durability.
If Street goes down (which recent history suggests is likely) that bumps everyone up a spot and now you're relying on Corpas to close, Buchholz/Grilli/Embree for the eighth, and whoever is left for the seventh.
Obviously, Brian Wilson's one great year is no guarantee of future success. But the baseball gods never promise anything, especially in the bullpen. It's about potential at this point.
And, potentially, Huston Street can't carry Brian Wilson's jock.
Huge Edge: San Francisco Giants
There you have it. If you're a Major League pitcher and you want a lead protected, I suggest handing the job to the San Francisco Giants' bullpen if the alternative is that of the Colorado Rockies.
The boys in Orange and Black have the better arms, healthier arms, and more of them.
Now, about those bats...
If you look at the entire bullpen, this becomes a thorough romp. Confining the discussion to the top three firemen at least keeps it close.
For my beloved San Francisco Giants, that means the following three relievers: closer Brian Wilson, newly-acquired Jeremy Affeldt, and newly-acquired Bobby Howry—although I could make a strong argument for either Alex Hinshaw or Sergio Romo as the third musketeer.
For the poor Colorado Rockies, that means this motley crew: closer Huston Street, deposed 2008 closer Manny Corpas, and Taylor Buchholz (and he's apparently on the shelf for the start of the year so I'll look at Jason Grilli and ).
Before I heap more misery upon the Rox, let me first say that I would be arguing in favor of SF's trio even if they were Dustin Hermanson, William VanLandingham, and Joe Roa.
It just so happens that—bluster aside—I really do think SF's bullpen is the objectively superior of the two. Take a look:
Seventh Inning Guys (or Secondary Set-Up Men)—Buchholz versus Howry
This is the spot that helps the Rockies' cause the most because Taylor Buchholz is the real deal and coming off a fine season whereas Bobby Howry—although more proven—is coming off his first rugged year in a while.
Despite fighting the thin-air demons at Coors Field on a regular basis, Buchholz posted the following line in 2008—a 2.17 earned run average, a 0.95 WHIP, 56 strikeouts against 18 walks, and only five home runs surrendered in 66+ innings pitched over the course of 63 games. I repeat, while playing his home games in Denver.
And the kid is only 27. Whoa.
But he's hurt and a sprained ligament in your pitching elbow is always horrible news. That's the kind of insidious injury that becomes Tommy John surgery when nobody's looking and, suddenly, the guy's MIA for a year or so.
Regardless of the long-term situation, Taylor's down for at least a month and that means the most reliable/dominating arm from last season is missing—to be replaced by Jason Grilli and/or Alan Embree.
Both guys are decent enough.
Grilli posted a sub-3.00 ERA after coming over from the Detroit Tigers early last season and only gave up a single bomb in 61+ IP, but his WHIP of 1.40 and K:BB ratio of less than 2:1 suggest his success might be fleeting. Embree's a reliable lefty specialist and every 'pen needs one of those.
But neither is gonna bring the gnarliness that Buchholz supplied.
Bobby Howry had a brutal '08 campaign for the Chicago Cubs, pitching to a 5.35 ERA with a WHIP north of 1.40, but those were uncharacteristic numbers compared to Howry's career numbers. Even in an obviously down year, the guy managed 59 Ks against only 13 walks.
His biggest bugaboo would appear to be the 13 taters given up in 70+ innings of work. At 35, Howry could be showing signs of a final breakdown or that homer total could be the product of the (un)Friendly Confines in Chicago.
Even if it is more than a one year anomally, the move to the more spacious park in San Francisco should bring the long ball total back to respectable levels and (hopefully) the extra confidence will shave some excess off both Howry's ERA and WHIP.
If not, SF still has the young duo of 26-year-old Sergio Romo—2.12 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 33 Ks, eight walks, three HRs in 34 IP last year—and 26-year-old Alex Hinshaw—3.40 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 47 Ks, 29 walks, five HRs in 39+ IP last year. Both guys should be ready to pick up any slack.
Hinshaw's numbers aren't much next to Romo's superlative work, but he's a funky lefty who kinda came apart at the end of the year so his stats are a bit misleading.
That's a lot to digest and, despite my natural lean towards SF, I'll give the edge to Colorado by assuming Buchholz will be right as rain by June. If he's gone longer than that, San Francisco takes this match-up easily.
EDGE: Colorado Rockies
Eighth Inning Guys (or Primary Set-Up Men)—Corpas versus Affeldt
Here's where the trouble really starts for the Rox.
Manny Corpas was absolutely electric in 2007, enough to wrestle closing duties away from the departed Brian Fuentes. Huge things were expected from the 26-year-old and he responded by totally crapping the bed in 2008.
The difference was simply night and day. His ERA doubled from 2.08 to 4.52, his WHIP jumped from 1.06 to 1.46, and he gave up 30 more hits in about two extra innings. Although the difference wasn't as drastic as above, Corpas gave up more walks, an extra homer, and whiffed fewer batters.
It was a global regression for the young righty.
Maybe he bounces back in 2009, maybe not. Relievers have a unpleasant little habit of requiring a change of scenery before they can recapture that elusive lightning in a bottle.
Jeremy Affeldt, on the other hand, put up another year of stellar work. His 2008 line—3.33 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 80 Ks against 25 walks, nine taters, and 78+ IP over 74 games—is impressive in a vacuum.
Turn that vacuum into the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, toss in the fact that Affeldt's a 30-year-old lefty, and the numbers become downright filthy.
Although Great American isn't quite a bandbox like a lot of the other parks in the National League Central, it can't be considered a pitcher's park like Pac Bell definitely is. That means his numbers should get even better when some of the fly balls find gloves instead of metal bleachers.
Plus, Affeldt's role is clearly defined whereas Corpas must have some designs on recapturing the closer's job. I say that limbo makes a bounce-back season from Colorado's Manny less likely.
If the Rockies get a version of Corpas closer to 2007 than to 2008, this one could be closer than it looks now.
Big Edge: San Francisco Giants
The Closers (or...the Closers)—Street versus Wilson
That sound you just heard was the Colorado bullpen wagon jettisoning all four wheels at once. And then landing on the horses that were pulling the freakin' thing.
Let's pretend the side-by-side was a dog-fight heading into the final bout. Shoot, you could even pretend the Rockies were a little bit in front.
The San Francisco Giants would still emerge from this round the clear winner. Brian Wilson is that much better than Huston Street. San Fran's closer would pull the entire bullpen ahead of Colorado's. He is that much better than Street.
Forget about all the peripherals, forget about all the really sophisticated metrics. For closers, there is only one stat that matters—save percentage. As in, how often did you blow the game when entrusted with a lead.
All the rest get skewed by poor performances in non-save opportunities or on the rare occasion things come apart at the seams in save chances.
Brian Wilson saw 47 save opportunities and failed to secure the win six times. So, while the 41 saves were very nice and his gaudy total at the break was certainly what garnered Wilson his All-Star nod, it was his 87 percent save rate that blows up my skirt.
All the more so because this is not a guy who was usually working with the max margin of three runs (or whatever your version of the max is). The Giants' anemic offense usually forced Wilson onto a tightrope without a net—blow the slim lead and those SF bats probably aren't gonna recoup your losses.
Flip over to Huston Street. While his peripherals are significantly better than Wilson's, check out the save percentage.
In only 25 save opportunities, Street blew seven leads. That would be one more than Wilson in 22 fewer chances. For those scoring at home, Huston registered 18 saves and a save percentage of 72.
Furthermore, Street has developed injury problems for two consecutive years now. Even though he's actually a year younger than Wilson, red flags are flying high regarding his durability.
If Street goes down (which recent history suggests is likely) that bumps everyone up a spot and now you're relying on Corpas to close, Buchholz/Grilli/Embree for the eighth, and whoever is left for the seventh.
Obviously, Brian Wilson's one great year is no guarantee of future success. But the baseball gods never promise anything, especially in the bullpen. It's about potential at this point.
And, potentially, Huston Street can't carry Brian Wilson's jock.
Huge Edge: San Francisco Giants
There you have it. If you're a Major League pitcher and you want a lead protected, I suggest handing the job to the San Francisco Giants' bullpen if the alternative is that of the Colorado Rockies.
The boys in Orange and Black have the better arms, healthier arms, and more of them.
Now, about those bats...
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