The early spring reports from San Francisco Giants' camp have been conservatively encouraging. The news has, for the most part, been good and that's better than the alternative. However, these are only Spring Training games and very early ones at that. Nor have the surfacings been entirely cheerful.
Noah Lowry's recovery from his arm injury hasn't been progressing as smoothly as all involved hoped and Matt Cain's luck doesn't seem to have changed thus far in 2009.
But, like I said, it's early in the preseason.
What's more, the Giants don't necessarily need Lowry if Jonathan Sanchez can continue to mature and discover that elusive consistency that every young hurler lusts after.
To that end, Sanchez has apparently added another pitch and one of the offspeed variety.
A changeup makes the development twice as intriguing since the kid features mostly hard offerings to date. Those pitches have received pretty rave reviews so pairing the hard stuff up with a good change would make the lefty's arsenal all the more devastating.
The head of the rotation is a no-brainer.
San Francisco fans can't expect Tim Lincecum to reproduce his magical 2008 Cy Young campaign, but we can hope for such an encore performance. And something approximating his 2008 dominance shouldn't be too surprising considering the Franchise is only 25 in June. He's got a lot of baseball still left to learn and there's still some physical maturation in that body so there's a decent chance the Freak will get even more freakish.
But the developments that have really got me dreaming are those concerning Barry Zito and Randy Johnson.
Zito's slated for the fourth slot in the rotation by my figuring and that means he doesn't have to be outstanding to make a strong contribution to the Orange and Black in 2009. Most number four starters in Major League Baseball are not gonna win 15 games while pitching to a mid-3.00 earned run average.
So the whisperings out of Giants' camp that Zito looks more relaxed and comfortable than he ever has in a San Francisco uniform is good to hear. As are the tidings of his offseason spent working out with Brian Wilson.
Then there's the Big Unit. The real reason why I'm now thinking SF's pitching might be even more tremendous that it first looked.
When I started drooling over the potential of a strong starting rotation—one through five—handing off to a reinforced bullpen, I was thinking Randy would be decent. Not even a shade of his former self, but still as good or better than most number threes.
Well, in his first appearance of the Spring against his former ballclub (the Arizona Diamondbacks), Johnson struck out seven in three innings. As in seven of nine outs. And the D-Backs had most of their regulars in to face the Departed.
OK, I know I said it's early in the preseason and these games don't mean much anyway.
Still, striking out seven regular MLB hitters in three innings is impressive. Regardless of when you do it. Regardless of whether it's done against hitters who have yet to find their stroke.
By that fifth batter, you know those guys were screwing in with a new-found intensity. And they still couldn't fight the Big Unit off. The icing on the cake is that Randy still feels good after the outing and is feeling stronger than he has over the last several years.
That's REALLY good news.
Let's not forget that Randy Johnson was still a pretty formidable pitcher in very recent years when he could take his starts. If he can make that good feeling last for the majority of the year, he could turn a strong staff into a truly special one.
With Lincecum and Cain continuing to reward San Francisco for patience and vision, the Giants have a legit ace and a blossoming number two. With Sanchez hopefully making a bid to join the other two young studs, he should better than virtually every fifth starter in the game and might even bump Zito down to the five spot by the end of the year.
With Zito and Johnson experiencing a pseudo-renaissance to their youthful glory days, the San Francisco pitching cup would runneth over.
Of course, the Giants' offensive radar hasn't been showing too many promising blips yet—although Travis Ishikawa is heating up—so that cup better be overflowing if 2009 is gonna see a return to competitive relevance.
So far, so good.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
The San Diego Padres' 2009 Slightly Premature Preview
The first time your hometown nine goes into an extended tailspin in 2009 and you're kicking yourself for ever discovering the blessed game of baseball, throw a gander at the San Diego Padres. I promise you, their predicament will make your team's situation glow by comparison.
This is a team that has no chance—as in zero—to win Major League Baseball's weakest division. I repeat, zip. Zilch. Nada. Might as well start scouting the prospects because SD's gonna need several.
The Fathers' offseason has been spent making an absolute mockery of Jake Peavy's status. It's pretty obvious to everyone watching that San Diego was desperate to move the guy. Obvious to everyone except San Diego.
The franchise positioned itself for a well-publicized fire sale then began making crazy demands of teams that showed interest in the ace.
Look, you can't go around telling everyone and anyone with a microphone that you need to sell off assets due to the owner's messy divorce, then start bargaining as if from strength. If SD was gonna demand market value for Peavy, which is considerable once you understand just how steady Jake has been at an extremely unsteady position, the sap stories about heart break and economic woe should never have been peddled in the first place.
Quick digression—I'm not sure if the Pads need to cut payroll in order to reduce the value of the franchise for California's community property rules or just because John Moores wants to sell the team (and has thusly stopped sinking money into it). Either way, how would you like to be part of that fanbase? Being held mercy for the sake of one man's personal life...awesome.
Anyway, for the sake of exercise, here's the rest of the San Diego Padres' "roster:"
Projected starting lineup
Catcher—Nick Hundley
First base—Adrian Gonzalez
Second base—David Eckstein
Third base—Kevin Kouzmanoff
Shortstop—Luis Rodriguez
Left field—Chase Headley
Center field—Jody Gerut
Right field—Brian Giles
Dear me. I'm not sure what to say other than Cliff Floyd, Emil Brown, and Scott Hairston are also on the roster. I don't have the heart to say anything else.
Starting rotation
Ace—Jake Peavy (R)
Second spot—Chris Young (R)
Third spot—Cha Seung Baek (R)
Fourth spot—Josh Greer (R)
Fifth spot—Wade LeBlanc (L)
This is just going from bad to worse. It says here that Mark Prior is on the roster with a minor league contract. Sounds about right.
Bullpen
Closer—Heath Bell (R)
Set-up—Cla Merridith (R)
Set-up—Justin Hampson (L)
Set-up—Mike Adams (R)
Hey, I pay very close attention to the NL West and watch/listen to almost every single San Francisco Giants game played over the course of the year. And I have NO idea who a lot of those guys are.
Seriously, I have zero love for the San Diego Padres. Still, running down their roster makes me a little angry. Can't we expect more from an owner than this? Can't we demand that someone has to, at a minimum, give a damn about fielding a team capable of competing against baseball's frailest opposition before he/she can own a franchise?
Because Major League fans of any city deserve better than this garbage. It's embarrassing—plain and simple. Another illustrious feather in Bud Selig's stellar array.
Jody Gerut's a nice seventh hitter. Unfortunately, he's probably the second most dangerous hitter in SD's current lineup since Brian Giles is older than a lot of coaches in MLB at this point. Nick Hundley's supposed to be the next big thing at catcher, but has yet to show any sincere threat of making that a fact.
Luis Rodriguez could be anybody as could David Eckstein. Kevin Kouzmanoff is probably better than your average third baseman, but not by much. And Chase Headley is all potential at this point. At 25, he could go either way and he'll probably do it pretty soon.
The lone bright spot—and he is very much a supremely dangerous professional hitter—is Adrian Gonzalez. His 2008 campaign was nothing short of astonishing, considering he hit .279 with 32 doubles, 36 home runs, 103 runs scored, 119 runs batted in, a .361 on-base percentage, and an .871 OPS. If you don't believe those are special numbers, ask another Big Leaguer to replicate them while surrounded by a pretty good varsity high school lineup.
I'd wager 90 percent would fail to approach Gonzalez' feat, which was totally wasted. My guess is that another miraculous year from Adrian will go to complete waste in 2009.
Forget the pitching staff. Forget the entire thing. I'm not gonna waste the time or effort dissecting a staff with three viable professional arms—Jake Peavy, Chris Young, and Heath Bell. Those three guys would play for anyone.
I don't think Young would be a number two and Bell definitely wouldn't be closing, but they will be nasty for stretches and that makes them legitimate pros. Peavy's an ace on arguably any team in the either league.
But the rest is total crap. Some of 'em might look good for a while because novelty always works wonder for pitchers. Unfortunately, it wears off. Maybe Josh Greer can stick around after tweaking back to match the adjustments MLB hitters will eventually make to his stuff.
Maybe not. Bottom-line—it just doesn't matter.
If I'm feeling generous, I'd say the San Diego Padres have six genuine Major League Baseball players—Peavy, Gonzalez, Kouz, Gerut, Giles, and Bell. Headley, Hundley, and Greer might join the party eventually, but not yet.
Six.
That's just pathetic. The San Diego Padres ownership and management should be ashamed to show their collective face in public.
This is a team that has no chance—as in zero—to win Major League Baseball's weakest division. I repeat, zip. Zilch. Nada. Might as well start scouting the prospects because SD's gonna need several.
The Fathers' offseason has been spent making an absolute mockery of Jake Peavy's status. It's pretty obvious to everyone watching that San Diego was desperate to move the guy. Obvious to everyone except San Diego.
The franchise positioned itself for a well-publicized fire sale then began making crazy demands of teams that showed interest in the ace.
Look, you can't go around telling everyone and anyone with a microphone that you need to sell off assets due to the owner's messy divorce, then start bargaining as if from strength. If SD was gonna demand market value for Peavy, which is considerable once you understand just how steady Jake has been at an extremely unsteady position, the sap stories about heart break and economic woe should never have been peddled in the first place.
Quick digression—I'm not sure if the Pads need to cut payroll in order to reduce the value of the franchise for California's community property rules or just because John Moores wants to sell the team (and has thusly stopped sinking money into it). Either way, how would you like to be part of that fanbase? Being held mercy for the sake of one man's personal life...awesome.
Anyway, for the sake of exercise, here's the rest of the San Diego Padres' "roster:"
Projected starting lineup
Catcher—Nick Hundley
First base—Adrian Gonzalez
Second base—David Eckstein
Third base—Kevin Kouzmanoff
Shortstop—Luis Rodriguez
Left field—Chase Headley
Center field—Jody Gerut
Right field—Brian Giles
Dear me. I'm not sure what to say other than Cliff Floyd, Emil Brown, and Scott Hairston are also on the roster. I don't have the heart to say anything else.
Starting rotation
Ace—Jake Peavy (R)
Second spot—Chris Young (R)
Third spot—Cha Seung Baek (R)
Fourth spot—Josh Greer (R)
Fifth spot—Wade LeBlanc (L)
This is just going from bad to worse. It says here that Mark Prior is on the roster with a minor league contract. Sounds about right.
Bullpen
Closer—Heath Bell (R)
Set-up—Cla Merridith (R)
Set-up—Justin Hampson (L)
Set-up—Mike Adams (R)
Hey, I pay very close attention to the NL West and watch/listen to almost every single San Francisco Giants game played over the course of the year. And I have NO idea who a lot of those guys are.
Seriously, I have zero love for the San Diego Padres. Still, running down their roster makes me a little angry. Can't we expect more from an owner than this? Can't we demand that someone has to, at a minimum, give a damn about fielding a team capable of competing against baseball's frailest opposition before he/she can own a franchise?
Because Major League fans of any city deserve better than this garbage. It's embarrassing—plain and simple. Another illustrious feather in Bud Selig's stellar array.
Jody Gerut's a nice seventh hitter. Unfortunately, he's probably the second most dangerous hitter in SD's current lineup since Brian Giles is older than a lot of coaches in MLB at this point. Nick Hundley's supposed to be the next big thing at catcher, but has yet to show any sincere threat of making that a fact.
Luis Rodriguez could be anybody as could David Eckstein. Kevin Kouzmanoff is probably better than your average third baseman, but not by much. And Chase Headley is all potential at this point. At 25, he could go either way and he'll probably do it pretty soon.
The lone bright spot—and he is very much a supremely dangerous professional hitter—is Adrian Gonzalez. His 2008 campaign was nothing short of astonishing, considering he hit .279 with 32 doubles, 36 home runs, 103 runs scored, 119 runs batted in, a .361 on-base percentage, and an .871 OPS. If you don't believe those are special numbers, ask another Big Leaguer to replicate them while surrounded by a pretty good varsity high school lineup.
I'd wager 90 percent would fail to approach Gonzalez' feat, which was totally wasted. My guess is that another miraculous year from Adrian will go to complete waste in 2009.
Forget the pitching staff. Forget the entire thing. I'm not gonna waste the time or effort dissecting a staff with three viable professional arms—Jake Peavy, Chris Young, and Heath Bell. Those three guys would play for anyone.
I don't think Young would be a number two and Bell definitely wouldn't be closing, but they will be nasty for stretches and that makes them legitimate pros. Peavy's an ace on arguably any team in the either league.
But the rest is total crap. Some of 'em might look good for a while because novelty always works wonder for pitchers. Unfortunately, it wears off. Maybe Josh Greer can stick around after tweaking back to match the adjustments MLB hitters will eventually make to his stuff.
Maybe not. Bottom-line—it just doesn't matter.
If I'm feeling generous, I'd say the San Diego Padres have six genuine Major League Baseball players—Peavy, Gonzalez, Kouz, Gerut, Giles, and Bell. Headley, Hundley, and Greer might join the party eventually, but not yet.
Six.
That's just pathetic. The San Diego Padres ownership and management should be ashamed to show their collective face in public.
The Colorado Rockies' 2009 Slightly Premature Preview
Remember when the Colorado Rockies stormed their way into the World Series? If you're a fan of the Rox, just try to keep that memory fresh in your mind as you read the following because it's gonna get plenty rough. When your squad plays in the National League West and its more pragmatic members are already looking to 2010, that means trouble.
Big trouble.
And big trouble is exactly what the Rockies have on their hands. It was gonna be an uphill battle even with Jeff Francis making every start. Now it appears as though he'll make none of them and that's just miserable luck for a team so thin in pitching.
Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes are gone for seemingly pennies on the dollar, Garrett Atkins appears to be in inexplicable decline, and Brad Hawpe got spiked in the hand during World Baseball Classic prep to add further injury to insult.
On the bright side, the offense features a ton of young talent that might bloom in 2009. In the decrepit NL West, that would have an outside shot at being enough—truly anyone could possibly win the division (except the San Diego Padres).
Here's how Colorado should look on Major League Baseball's Opening Day:
Projected starting lineup
Catcher—Chris Ianetta
First base—Todd Helton
Second base—Clint Barmes/Ian Stewart
Third base—Garrett Atkins
Shortstop—Troy Tulowitzki
Left field—Seth Smith/Carlos Gonzalez/Jeff Baker
Center field—Ryan Spilboroughs
Right field—Brad Hawpe
Lots of Rockies observers are high on Smith and I don't really get it—he's not incredibly young at 26 and his best stat is a .284 lifetime average in 116 at-bats. Ho-hum. At least Gonzalez is a speed merchant and is a comparable baby at 23. Baker's the oldest of the bunch (27), but he's shown flashes of professional hitting prowess.
Baker's highly versatile so he could figure in the second base plans as well. Scott Podsednik's out there with Matt Murton, but I doubt either will figure significantly.
Starting rotation
Ace—Aaron Cook (R)
Second spot—Ubaldo Jimenez (R)
Third spot—Jason Marquis (R)
Fourth spot—Greg Smith (L)
Fifth spot—Jorge De La Rosa (L)/Franklin Morales (L)
Wow, did that baby take on water in a hurry or what? Honestly, Cook as your ace? Oof. The guy's a nice pitcher and had a relatively amazing year in 2008, but he is NOT a Major League ace. Jimenez is on the right track at 25, but he's a stretch in the number two spot. The rest of the rotation could explode in an eight run inning on a nightly basis.
Throwing those arms into the thin, mile-high air is simply mean; no matter how much the humidor helps matters.
Bullpen
Closer—Huston Street (R)
Set-up—Manny Corpas (R)
Set-up—Jason Grilli (R)
Set-up—Taylor Buchholz (R)
Set-up—Alan Embree (L)
Let's start with the good, which means the hitting.
Colorado has finally seen the light and will hand the catching job, part and parcel, to Chris Ianetta. That's good because (A) it means less Yorvit Torrealba—in fairness he had a decent year in 2008; and (B) Ianetta can rake—in 333 ABs, he hit .264 with 22 doubles, 18 home runs, 50 runs scored, 65 runs batted in, a .390 on-base percentage, and an .895 OPS. Those are pretty gaudy numbers coming from a 26-year-old backstop.
The middle of the infield has some seriously terrifying potential.
We've seen more glimpses from Troy Tulowitzki than from Clint Barmes, but both have shown stretches of torrid offense. Tulo bombed away for 24 homers, 99 RBI, and a .291 average in 2007 before losing almost all of '08 to injuries. And Barmes was the front-runner for Rookie of the Year once upon a time before the injury bug infested his career.
Clint showed signs of a resurrection last year, hitting .290 with 25 doubles, 11 HRs, 47 runs, 44 RBI, a .322 OBP, and a .790 OPS in 393 ABs. Not great, but there's a ray of hope hidden in those numbers.
Ian Stewart is waiting in the wings and has shown potential just like Jeff Baker, Carlos Gonzalez, and Seth Smith. Which is to say, there are a lot of people infatuated with his potential.
Todd Helton is old, but probably still good for a .300 average and 15-20 taters if he can stay healthy. That's an enormous 'if.'
However, all the above guys are secondary to the Ryan Spilboroughs, Brad Hawpe, and Garrett Atkins.
It's those three who must pick up the incredible amount of slack left behind by Matt Holliday. Spilboroughs is the least proven of the group, but his career line is actually pretty nice—in 668 ABs spread over 3+ years, he's hit .302 with 34 doubles, 21 HRs, 104 runs, 109 RBI, a. 374 OBP, and an .840 OPS. Nothing in that line indicates he can put up similar numbers in a full-time capacity, but it's some solace at the very least.
Hawpe got off to a really ragged start last year, but he turned it completely around and finished with a .283 average, 24 doubles, 25 HRs, 69 runs, 85 RBI, a .381 OBP, and an .879 OPS in 488 ABs. If he can duplicate those numbers, I'm sure Colorado would be please. If he can pad them a little? All the better.
The real question mark is Atkins. His '08 campaign looks rosy in a vacuum—a .286 average, 32 doubles, 21 HRs, 86 runs, 99 RBI, a .328 OBP, and a .780 OPS. However, those numbers amount to a second consecutive year in decline and an acceleration in that direction.
Furthermore, Atkins struggles mightily (he loses 100 points off his average) when the Rox go on the road. None of these are goods signs, especially now that he's gonna be expected to help alleviate the added pressure of a Holliday-less lineup.
Not great for the good news is it?
Trust me—that was the good news. The pitching staff is a disaster; there's no other way to put it.
I covered the pertinent parts of the starting rotation above so let's just skip to the bullpen, where the picture is no nicer.
If you're a believer in Huston Street and the resilience of Manny Corpas, the Rockies' bullpen might be in soft focus. Reliable innings from those two guys makes the situation tenable.
I'm not a believer. In either of them.
The rest of the relievers are underwhelming. Taylor Buchholz put up nice innings last year as did Jason Grilli. But middle relievers are the definition of unpredictable—one good year might very well mean two or three terrible ones are in the pipeline. Even if those two are settling in for a little consistent burn, they're not blowing any opposing hitters out of the batter's box.
Alan Embree is okay, but that's your only southpaw coming from the 'pen? I guess they've got an extra lefty in competition for the rotation so that means an extra lefty in the bullpen, but none of those three would give me much comfort.
Toss the whole morass into the figurative sharks awaiting at Coors Field and 2009 looks grim for Colorado fans, even in the NL West.
Big trouble.
And big trouble is exactly what the Rockies have on their hands. It was gonna be an uphill battle even with Jeff Francis making every start. Now it appears as though he'll make none of them and that's just miserable luck for a team so thin in pitching.
Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes are gone for seemingly pennies on the dollar, Garrett Atkins appears to be in inexplicable decline, and Brad Hawpe got spiked in the hand during World Baseball Classic prep to add further injury to insult.
On the bright side, the offense features a ton of young talent that might bloom in 2009. In the decrepit NL West, that would have an outside shot at being enough—truly anyone could possibly win the division (except the San Diego Padres).
Here's how Colorado should look on Major League Baseball's Opening Day:
Projected starting lineup
Catcher—Chris Ianetta
First base—Todd Helton
Second base—Clint Barmes/Ian Stewart
Third base—Garrett Atkins
Shortstop—Troy Tulowitzki
Left field—Seth Smith/Carlos Gonzalez/Jeff Baker
Center field—Ryan Spilboroughs
Right field—Brad Hawpe
Lots of Rockies observers are high on Smith and I don't really get it—he's not incredibly young at 26 and his best stat is a .284 lifetime average in 116 at-bats. Ho-hum. At least Gonzalez is a speed merchant and is a comparable baby at 23. Baker's the oldest of the bunch (27), but he's shown flashes of professional hitting prowess.
Baker's highly versatile so he could figure in the second base plans as well. Scott Podsednik's out there with Matt Murton, but I doubt either will figure significantly.
Starting rotation
Ace—Aaron Cook (R)
Second spot—Ubaldo Jimenez (R)
Third spot—Jason Marquis (R)
Fourth spot—Greg Smith (L)
Fifth spot—Jorge De La Rosa (L)/Franklin Morales (L)
Wow, did that baby take on water in a hurry or what? Honestly, Cook as your ace? Oof. The guy's a nice pitcher and had a relatively amazing year in 2008, but he is NOT a Major League ace. Jimenez is on the right track at 25, but he's a stretch in the number two spot. The rest of the rotation could explode in an eight run inning on a nightly basis.
Throwing those arms into the thin, mile-high air is simply mean; no matter how much the humidor helps matters.
Bullpen
Closer—Huston Street (R)
Set-up—Manny Corpas (R)
Set-up—Jason Grilli (R)
Set-up—Taylor Buchholz (R)
Set-up—Alan Embree (L)
Let's start with the good, which means the hitting.
Colorado has finally seen the light and will hand the catching job, part and parcel, to Chris Ianetta. That's good because (A) it means less Yorvit Torrealba—in fairness he had a decent year in 2008; and (B) Ianetta can rake—in 333 ABs, he hit .264 with 22 doubles, 18 home runs, 50 runs scored, 65 runs batted in, a .390 on-base percentage, and an .895 OPS. Those are pretty gaudy numbers coming from a 26-year-old backstop.
The middle of the infield has some seriously terrifying potential.
We've seen more glimpses from Troy Tulowitzki than from Clint Barmes, but both have shown stretches of torrid offense. Tulo bombed away for 24 homers, 99 RBI, and a .291 average in 2007 before losing almost all of '08 to injuries. And Barmes was the front-runner for Rookie of the Year once upon a time before the injury bug infested his career.
Clint showed signs of a resurrection last year, hitting .290 with 25 doubles, 11 HRs, 47 runs, 44 RBI, a .322 OBP, and a .790 OPS in 393 ABs. Not great, but there's a ray of hope hidden in those numbers.
Ian Stewart is waiting in the wings and has shown potential just like Jeff Baker, Carlos Gonzalez, and Seth Smith. Which is to say, there are a lot of people infatuated with his potential.
Todd Helton is old, but probably still good for a .300 average and 15-20 taters if he can stay healthy. That's an enormous 'if.'
However, all the above guys are secondary to the Ryan Spilboroughs, Brad Hawpe, and Garrett Atkins.
It's those three who must pick up the incredible amount of slack left behind by Matt Holliday. Spilboroughs is the least proven of the group, but his career line is actually pretty nice—in 668 ABs spread over 3+ years, he's hit .302 with 34 doubles, 21 HRs, 104 runs, 109 RBI, a. 374 OBP, and an .840 OPS. Nothing in that line indicates he can put up similar numbers in a full-time capacity, but it's some solace at the very least.
Hawpe got off to a really ragged start last year, but he turned it completely around and finished with a .283 average, 24 doubles, 25 HRs, 69 runs, 85 RBI, a .381 OBP, and an .879 OPS in 488 ABs. If he can duplicate those numbers, I'm sure Colorado would be please. If he can pad them a little? All the better.
The real question mark is Atkins. His '08 campaign looks rosy in a vacuum—a .286 average, 32 doubles, 21 HRs, 86 runs, 99 RBI, a .328 OBP, and a .780 OPS. However, those numbers amount to a second consecutive year in decline and an acceleration in that direction.
Furthermore, Atkins struggles mightily (he loses 100 points off his average) when the Rox go on the road. None of these are goods signs, especially now that he's gonna be expected to help alleviate the added pressure of a Holliday-less lineup.
Not great for the good news is it?
Trust me—that was the good news. The pitching staff is a disaster; there's no other way to put it.
I covered the pertinent parts of the starting rotation above so let's just skip to the bullpen, where the picture is no nicer.
If you're a believer in Huston Street and the resilience of Manny Corpas, the Rockies' bullpen might be in soft focus. Reliable innings from those two guys makes the situation tenable.
I'm not a believer. In either of them.
The rest of the relievers are underwhelming. Taylor Buchholz put up nice innings last year as did Jason Grilli. But middle relievers are the definition of unpredictable—one good year might very well mean two or three terrible ones are in the pipeline. Even if those two are settling in for a little consistent burn, they're not blowing any opposing hitters out of the batter's box.
Alan Embree is okay, but that's your only southpaw coming from the 'pen? I guess they've got an extra lefty in competition for the rotation so that means an extra lefty in the bullpen, but none of those three would give me much comfort.
Toss the whole morass into the figurative sharks awaiting at Coors Field and 2009 looks grim for Colorado fans, even in the NL West.
Monday, March 2, 2009
The Arizona Diamondbacks' 2009 Slightly Premature Preview
After previewing the six teams in the National League Central, I'm moving back to more familiar territory—the NL West. I've already covered the San Francisco Giants (and who am I kidding, I'll be writing more about them before the season starts anyway). I've also covered the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Those two teams figure to be the favorites heading into Opening Day for obvious and opposite reasons. So it seems to work nicely if I just keep moving down the list of contenders.
Which brings me to the Arizona Diamondbacks. They'd have to be considered either in the mix with LA and SF or a step behind. That in itself says volumes about the standard of competition in the Senior Circuit's left-most division.
And I thought the NL Central was in rough shape—almost every one of those teams would be a favorite out here.
Like I said, the Snakes will almost certainly finish no worse than third and could even compete for the division title if things break right. This despite the defections of Adam Dunn, Orland Hudson (to a division foe), Randy Johnson (to a division foe), Juan Cruz, and Brandon Lyon.
Here's how the roster should break out on Opening Day:
Projected starting lineup
Catcher—Chris Snyder
First base—Chad Tracy
Second base—Felipe Lopez
Third base—Mark Reynolds
Shortstop—Stephen Drew
Left field—Conor Jackson
Center field—Chris Young
Right field—Justin Upton
If all those young guys play up to or above expectation, the lineup could be pretty rugged. And let's not forget that Eric Byrnes is gonna be chomping at the bit to get on the field. If he can regain the form that garnered him his bloated contract, he could bump Jackson back to the infield, which would presumably shift Tracy to third and Reynolds to second. Arizona fans would mercifully be spared the slow strangulation of Felipe Lopez
But that presupposes a resurrection from Byrnes and I don't see that happening—I was never a believer to begin with though.
Starting rotation
Ace—Brandon Webb (R)
Second spot—Dan Haren (R)
Third spot—Doug Davis (L)
Fourth spot—Jon Garland (R)
Fifth spot—Max Scherzer (R)
Again, if everything goes well that's a fearsome rotation. Unfortunately, Spring Training has already gotten off to rocky start with Webb coming down with a ding. It's probably not serious, but that still doesn't bode well. Should any of the aforementioned run into trouble, Yusmeiro Petit is waiting in the wings. He's still only 24 and has shown some promise at times, but still not a contingency the Diamondbacks want to be forced into.
Bullpen
Closer—Jon Rauch (R)/Chad Qualls (R)
Set-up—Chad Qualls (R)/Jon Rauch (R)
Set-up—Tom Gordon (R)
Set-up—Scott Schoeneweis (L)
Set-up—Tony Pena (R)
On paper, there's good reason for Arizona fans to lay claim to preseason favorite status. In all honesty, that's the most complete picture in the NL West considering Arizona's most glaring weakness is its bullpen while LA lacks pitching and SF lacks hitting.
I say a lot of the warm fuzzies coming out of Diamondback camp is smoke and mirrors.
On offense, Chris Snyder is an adequate catcher, but he doesn't give Arizona a noticeable advantage. Chad Tracy's had trouble staying healthy of late, but there was once a time he was a reliable bet to threaten .300 while hitting 20+ home runs. And the Snakes would be better off finding a way to avoid Felipe Lopez at second—he's a tease and a really frustrating one at that.
A lot of people love Chris Young because he oozes athleticism. So does Mike Cameron and I say the two are a lot alike. Sure he hit 42 doubles and 22 homers while stealing 14 bases (along with 85 runs scored and 85 runs batted in). He also struck out 165 times in 625 at-bats while "hitting" .248 with an on-base percentage of .315 and an OPS of .758.
The kid is only 25 so I'd be dumb to write him off, but you could say I'm not a believer in anyone whose OBP is lower than a lot of averages in Major League Baseball.
Mark Reynolds fits in almost the exact same 25-year-old boat—.239 average, 28 doubles, 28 taters, 87 runs, 97 RBI, 11 stolen bases, a .320 OBP, a .779 OPS, and 204 whiffs in 539 ABs. Those last two numbers are CRAZY; that's almost a 40 percent K rate. Whoa.
Conor Jackson is nice, but 2008 saw him hit .300 with 31 doubles, 12 bombs, 87 runs, 75 RBI, 10 SBs, a .376 OBP, and an .823 OPS. That was probably very close to his peak so I doubt he's gonna suddenly add to those totals in vast quantities.
The real weapons are Stephen Drew and Justin Upton. Drew is farther along in his development, which is understandable considering he is 26 and Justin is 21. In '08, J.D.'s younger brother delighted the Arizona faithful by hitting .291 with 44 doubles, 11 triples, 21 homers, 91 runs, 67 RBI, a .333 OBP, and an. 836 OPS. All from shortstop and picking it clean at that position.
Upton missed a considerable amount of time so he only collected 356 ABs. In those chances, he hit .250 with 19 doubles, six triples, 15 HRs, 52 runs, 42 RBI, a .353 OBP, and an .816 OPS. B.J.'s younger brother did strike out 121 times so he's obviously got some holes to fix. Still, those numbers are pretty scary considering his extreme youth.
Either Drew or Upton or both could explode this year into something very special. If both of them make the leap, that might make the Snakes better than both the Giants and Dodgers.
The problem is the other guys and the pitching. Yeah, the pitching.
Brandon Webb is obviously one of the best in the business. But Dan Haren starting get torched a bit towards the end of the season and a lot of the damage was done by division opponents. Considering the offenses in the NL West, that can't be good news.
Doug Davis is okay as is Jon Garland, but both are defined by the team behind them rather than the other way around.
If Max Scherzer can take his place alongside Tim Lincecum and Chad Billingsley as he's supposed to, then all is gravy in Arizona. But what are the chances of all three becoming bona fide aces? Doesn't the law of averages dictate that one fails to deliver? Again, not good news since the other two have already established themselves.
And the bullpen is in even worse shape.
I don't know what the hell happened to Jon Rauch when he came over from the Washington Nationals, but something in the desert didn't agree with him as the wheels absolutely blew off his wagon. If Yusmeiro Petit's services aren't needed in the rotation, he'll help Chad Qualls settle the situation.
But Qualls isn't really a closer. If Rauch can't bounce back and Tony Pena can't finally justify all the closer-in-waiting talk, the Snakes will have an open inning at the end of games and that's a really bad idea.
Hey, there's always Tom Gordon. Maybe Flash will return to form. Maybe not.
Regardless, clubs that build their hopes on a series of best-case scenarios tend to find themselves staring up at a lot of teams in the standings come July and August.
I don't expect the baseball gods will be any kinder to the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2009.
Those two teams figure to be the favorites heading into Opening Day for obvious and opposite reasons. So it seems to work nicely if I just keep moving down the list of contenders.
Which brings me to the Arizona Diamondbacks. They'd have to be considered either in the mix with LA and SF or a step behind. That in itself says volumes about the standard of competition in the Senior Circuit's left-most division.
And I thought the NL Central was in rough shape—almost every one of those teams would be a favorite out here.
Like I said, the Snakes will almost certainly finish no worse than third and could even compete for the division title if things break right. This despite the defections of Adam Dunn, Orland Hudson (to a division foe), Randy Johnson (to a division foe), Juan Cruz, and Brandon Lyon.
Here's how the roster should break out on Opening Day:
Projected starting lineup
Catcher—Chris Snyder
First base—Chad Tracy
Second base—Felipe Lopez
Third base—Mark Reynolds
Shortstop—Stephen Drew
Left field—Conor Jackson
Center field—Chris Young
Right field—Justin Upton
If all those young guys play up to or above expectation, the lineup could be pretty rugged. And let's not forget that Eric Byrnes is gonna be chomping at the bit to get on the field. If he can regain the form that garnered him his bloated contract, he could bump Jackson back to the infield, which would presumably shift Tracy to third and Reynolds to second. Arizona fans would mercifully be spared the slow strangulation of Felipe Lopez
But that presupposes a resurrection from Byrnes and I don't see that happening—I was never a believer to begin with though.
Starting rotation
Ace—Brandon Webb (R)
Second spot—Dan Haren (R)
Third spot—Doug Davis (L)
Fourth spot—Jon Garland (R)
Fifth spot—Max Scherzer (R)
Again, if everything goes well that's a fearsome rotation. Unfortunately, Spring Training has already gotten off to rocky start with Webb coming down with a ding. It's probably not serious, but that still doesn't bode well. Should any of the aforementioned run into trouble, Yusmeiro Petit is waiting in the wings. He's still only 24 and has shown some promise at times, but still not a contingency the Diamondbacks want to be forced into.
Bullpen
Closer—Jon Rauch (R)/Chad Qualls (R)
Set-up—Chad Qualls (R)/Jon Rauch (R)
Set-up—Tom Gordon (R)
Set-up—Scott Schoeneweis (L)
Set-up—Tony Pena (R)
On paper, there's good reason for Arizona fans to lay claim to preseason favorite status. In all honesty, that's the most complete picture in the NL West considering Arizona's most glaring weakness is its bullpen while LA lacks pitching and SF lacks hitting.
I say a lot of the warm fuzzies coming out of Diamondback camp is smoke and mirrors.
On offense, Chris Snyder is an adequate catcher, but he doesn't give Arizona a noticeable advantage. Chad Tracy's had trouble staying healthy of late, but there was once a time he was a reliable bet to threaten .300 while hitting 20+ home runs. And the Snakes would be better off finding a way to avoid Felipe Lopez at second—he's a tease and a really frustrating one at that.
A lot of people love Chris Young because he oozes athleticism. So does Mike Cameron and I say the two are a lot alike. Sure he hit 42 doubles and 22 homers while stealing 14 bases (along with 85 runs scored and 85 runs batted in). He also struck out 165 times in 625 at-bats while "hitting" .248 with an on-base percentage of .315 and an OPS of .758.
The kid is only 25 so I'd be dumb to write him off, but you could say I'm not a believer in anyone whose OBP is lower than a lot of averages in Major League Baseball.
Mark Reynolds fits in almost the exact same 25-year-old boat—.239 average, 28 doubles, 28 taters, 87 runs, 97 RBI, 11 stolen bases, a .320 OBP, a .779 OPS, and 204 whiffs in 539 ABs. Those last two numbers are CRAZY; that's almost a 40 percent K rate. Whoa.
Conor Jackson is nice, but 2008 saw him hit .300 with 31 doubles, 12 bombs, 87 runs, 75 RBI, 10 SBs, a .376 OBP, and an .823 OPS. That was probably very close to his peak so I doubt he's gonna suddenly add to those totals in vast quantities.
The real weapons are Stephen Drew and Justin Upton. Drew is farther along in his development, which is understandable considering he is 26 and Justin is 21. In '08, J.D.'s younger brother delighted the Arizona faithful by hitting .291 with 44 doubles, 11 triples, 21 homers, 91 runs, 67 RBI, a .333 OBP, and an. 836 OPS. All from shortstop and picking it clean at that position.
Upton missed a considerable amount of time so he only collected 356 ABs. In those chances, he hit .250 with 19 doubles, six triples, 15 HRs, 52 runs, 42 RBI, a .353 OBP, and an .816 OPS. B.J.'s younger brother did strike out 121 times so he's obviously got some holes to fix. Still, those numbers are pretty scary considering his extreme youth.
Either Drew or Upton or both could explode this year into something very special. If both of them make the leap, that might make the Snakes better than both the Giants and Dodgers.
The problem is the other guys and the pitching. Yeah, the pitching.
Brandon Webb is obviously one of the best in the business. But Dan Haren starting get torched a bit towards the end of the season and a lot of the damage was done by division opponents. Considering the offenses in the NL West, that can't be good news.
Doug Davis is okay as is Jon Garland, but both are defined by the team behind them rather than the other way around.
If Max Scherzer can take his place alongside Tim Lincecum and Chad Billingsley as he's supposed to, then all is gravy in Arizona. But what are the chances of all three becoming bona fide aces? Doesn't the law of averages dictate that one fails to deliver? Again, not good news since the other two have already established themselves.
And the bullpen is in even worse shape.
I don't know what the hell happened to Jon Rauch when he came over from the Washington Nationals, but something in the desert didn't agree with him as the wheels absolutely blew off his wagon. If Yusmeiro Petit's services aren't needed in the rotation, he'll help Chad Qualls settle the situation.
But Qualls isn't really a closer. If Rauch can't bounce back and Tony Pena can't finally justify all the closer-in-waiting talk, the Snakes will have an open inning at the end of games and that's a really bad idea.
Hey, there's always Tom Gordon. Maybe Flash will return to form. Maybe not.
Regardless, clubs that build their hopes on a series of best-case scenarios tend to find themselves staring up at a lot of teams in the standings come July and August.
I don't expect the baseball gods will be any kinder to the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2009.
The Houston Astros' 2009 Slightly Premature Preview
I'm not gonna lie to you—nothing about the Houston Astros excites me. Unless I'm wrong, this is essentially the same team that took the field in 2008 minus Randy Wolf, Ty Wigginton, and Mark Loretta. Those aren't huge losses, but they are definitely significant and Houston didn't exactly have tons of margin with which to work.
Houston hung around the postseason picture longer than most people thought or acknowledged, but the club never was a dire threat to the eventual qualifiers.
This year, the 'stros should get (hopefully) a full season from Carlos Lee and another year of improvement from Hunter Pence. Neither is a small addition, but both will not be enough to make this team a serious contender.
There are just too many aging or unknown commodities. Even worse, the proven commodities are not the kind sought after by most organizations.
No kidding, ESPN lists Mike Hampton as Houston's number three starter. Yahoo Sports lists him as its number four. Oh man, that's depressing if you have the misfortune of rooting for the Houston nine.
Here's the rest of a very vanilla picture:
Projected starting lineup
Catcher—J.R. Towles
First base—Lance Berkman
Second base—Kazuo Matsui
Third base—Geoff Blum/Aaron Boone
Shortstop—Miguel Tejada
Left field—Carlos Lee
Center field—Michael Bourne
Right field—Hunter Pence
Most sites list Humberto Quintero as the starter, but I don't see why that makes sense. He's almost 30, is a career .230 hitter with five home runs. Towles was brutal in his run last year, but at least he's only 25. Let's see what the kid can do. Darren Erstad's also floating around the edges.
Starting rotation
Ace—Roy Oswalt (R)
Second spot—Wandy Rodriguez (L)
Third spot—Brian Moehler (R)
Fourth spot—Mike Hampton (L)
Fifth spot—Brandon Backe (R)
Oswalt's a nightmare when he's right and he should be right in 2009 after a bit of an off-year in 2008. It's about time to admit that Rodriguez is what he is and that's not a number two. You can still argue he might blossom and fulfill the promise everyone sees, but the dude is 30 and 2008 was a bit of a regression. The rest of the rotation is a series of interchangeable parts.
And a Russ Ortiz sighting is NEVER a good sign. In any capacity.
Bullpen
Closer—Jose Valverde (R)
Set-up—Doug Brocail (R)
Set-up—Chris Sampson (R)
Set-up—Geoff Geary (R)
Set-up—Clay Hensley (R)
Man, are you as bored as I am by that squad?
Lance Berkman was unreal in 2008—he hit .312 with 46 doubles, 29 bombs, 114 runs scored, 106 runs batted in, 18 stolen bases (that might be the most amazing of his numbers), a .420 on-base percentage, and a .986 OPS. Still, Sir Lancelot is 33 so is it realistic to expect him to get better? Or even repeat 2008's excellence? I say he gives some of that production back.
Carlso Lee wasn't too shabby either. El Caballo raked to the tune of a .314 average with 27 doubles, 28 home runs, 61 runs, 100 RBI, a .368 OBP, and a .937 OPS in only 436 at-bats. Another 100 ABs from Lee would be a big help. But he'll also be 33 soon after Opening Day.
Kaz Matsui is a decent hitter for average (.293 in '08) and he'll give Houston some extra speed on the bases (20 swipes), but that's about it. Miguel Tejada continues his accelerating decline; Miggy managed only 13 HRs, a .283 average, and 632 ABs in '08 i.e. health wasn't the problem. Michael Bourn is impossible to contain once he's on base, but his .288 OBP last year made his 41 steals virtually useless.
Geoff Blum, Aaron Boone, J.R. Towles, and Humberto Quintero don't need to be discussed other than to point out they will be on the field.
And then there's Hunter Pence. He didn't quite answer the bell in '08 as well as some had hoped, but his .269 average, 34 doubles, 25 HRs, 78 runs, 83 RBI, .318 OBP, and .783 OPS amounted to a pretty damn good second full season in Major League Baseball. At 26, he should be primed for a leap in the very near future. Don't be surprised if it happens in 2009.
Unfortunately, I don't think any of it matters because the pitching staff is garbage.
As I said above, Roy Oswalt is a maniac when he's throwing well and I totally expect him to throw well in '09. But Wandy Rodriguez is a mediocre pitcher at this point in his career and this point may very well be his peak. Brian Moehler might have been better than average at one point, but that point is in the rearview mirror.
If Mike Hampton makes 15 starts, I think most people in baseball would consider it the surprise of the year. Brandon Backe—who cares?
And I'm not kidding about having Russ Ortiz on your roster in any capacity. That right there is an enormous red flag that screams Houston knows it's got a problem on the mound.
It is a desperate, desperate move.
Forget the bullpen. Jose Valverde is actually better than I though and can be downright filthy for long stretches. And I like Doug Brocail as well as Geoff Geary. But I have a hard time taking any 'pen seriously that is considering LaTroy Hawkins.
Regardless, 162 games cannot be conquered without—at the absolute minimum—decent starting pitching. The Houston Astros don't have that.
Which is why I expect them to spend 2009 in one of the most offensively explosive pillow fights for last place in the National League Central with the Milwaukee Brewers.
Two amazing offensives behind two amazingly offensive pitching staffs. Should make for some fun games though.
Houston hung around the postseason picture longer than most people thought or acknowledged, but the club never was a dire threat to the eventual qualifiers.
This year, the 'stros should get (hopefully) a full season from Carlos Lee and another year of improvement from Hunter Pence. Neither is a small addition, but both will not be enough to make this team a serious contender.
There are just too many aging or unknown commodities. Even worse, the proven commodities are not the kind sought after by most organizations.
No kidding, ESPN lists Mike Hampton as Houston's number three starter. Yahoo Sports lists him as its number four. Oh man, that's depressing if you have the misfortune of rooting for the Houston nine.
Here's the rest of a very vanilla picture:
Projected starting lineup
Catcher—J.R. Towles
First base—Lance Berkman
Second base—Kazuo Matsui
Third base—Geoff Blum/Aaron Boone
Shortstop—Miguel Tejada
Left field—Carlos Lee
Center field—Michael Bourne
Right field—Hunter Pence
Most sites list Humberto Quintero as the starter, but I don't see why that makes sense. He's almost 30, is a career .230 hitter with five home runs. Towles was brutal in his run last year, but at least he's only 25. Let's see what the kid can do. Darren Erstad's also floating around the edges.
Starting rotation
Ace—Roy Oswalt (R)
Second spot—Wandy Rodriguez (L)
Third spot—Brian Moehler (R)
Fourth spot—Mike Hampton (L)
Fifth spot—Brandon Backe (R)
Oswalt's a nightmare when he's right and he should be right in 2009 after a bit of an off-year in 2008. It's about time to admit that Rodriguez is what he is and that's not a number two. You can still argue he might blossom and fulfill the promise everyone sees, but the dude is 30 and 2008 was a bit of a regression. The rest of the rotation is a series of interchangeable parts.
And a Russ Ortiz sighting is NEVER a good sign. In any capacity.
Bullpen
Closer—Jose Valverde (R)
Set-up—Doug Brocail (R)
Set-up—Chris Sampson (R)
Set-up—Geoff Geary (R)
Set-up—Clay Hensley (R)
Man, are you as bored as I am by that squad?
Lance Berkman was unreal in 2008—he hit .312 with 46 doubles, 29 bombs, 114 runs scored, 106 runs batted in, 18 stolen bases (that might be the most amazing of his numbers), a .420 on-base percentage, and a .986 OPS. Still, Sir Lancelot is 33 so is it realistic to expect him to get better? Or even repeat 2008's excellence? I say he gives some of that production back.
Carlso Lee wasn't too shabby either. El Caballo raked to the tune of a .314 average with 27 doubles, 28 home runs, 61 runs, 100 RBI, a .368 OBP, and a .937 OPS in only 436 at-bats. Another 100 ABs from Lee would be a big help. But he'll also be 33 soon after Opening Day.
Kaz Matsui is a decent hitter for average (.293 in '08) and he'll give Houston some extra speed on the bases (20 swipes), but that's about it. Miguel Tejada continues his accelerating decline; Miggy managed only 13 HRs, a .283 average, and 632 ABs in '08 i.e. health wasn't the problem. Michael Bourn is impossible to contain once he's on base, but his .288 OBP last year made his 41 steals virtually useless.
Geoff Blum, Aaron Boone, J.R. Towles, and Humberto Quintero don't need to be discussed other than to point out they will be on the field.
And then there's Hunter Pence. He didn't quite answer the bell in '08 as well as some had hoped, but his .269 average, 34 doubles, 25 HRs, 78 runs, 83 RBI, .318 OBP, and .783 OPS amounted to a pretty damn good second full season in Major League Baseball. At 26, he should be primed for a leap in the very near future. Don't be surprised if it happens in 2009.
Unfortunately, I don't think any of it matters because the pitching staff is garbage.
As I said above, Roy Oswalt is a maniac when he's throwing well and I totally expect him to throw well in '09. But Wandy Rodriguez is a mediocre pitcher at this point in his career and this point may very well be his peak. Brian Moehler might have been better than average at one point, but that point is in the rearview mirror.
If Mike Hampton makes 15 starts, I think most people in baseball would consider it the surprise of the year. Brandon Backe—who cares?
And I'm not kidding about having Russ Ortiz on your roster in any capacity. That right there is an enormous red flag that screams Houston knows it's got a problem on the mound.
It is a desperate, desperate move.
Forget the bullpen. Jose Valverde is actually better than I though and can be downright filthy for long stretches. And I like Doug Brocail as well as Geoff Geary. But I have a hard time taking any 'pen seriously that is considering LaTroy Hawkins.
Regardless, 162 games cannot be conquered without—at the absolute minimum—decent starting pitching. The Houston Astros don't have that.
Which is why I expect them to spend 2009 in one of the most offensively explosive pillow fights for last place in the National League Central with the Milwaukee Brewers.
Two amazing offensives behind two amazingly offensive pitching staffs. Should make for some fun games though.
Sunday, March 1, 2009
The Milwaukee Brewers' 2009 Slightly Premature Preview
There are certain fanbases you just have to feel sorry for if you're a close observer of Major League Baseball. They don't ask for my sympathy and I don't give it because it's requested. It's just the way it is. The poor souls who support clubs like the Cleveland Indians, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Kansas City Royals just demand a certain amount of hushed admiration for they are baseball's true Faithful.
And then there are those brave bodies who root on the Milwaukee Brewers.
You could make an argument that the National League has been the distinctly inferior of the two MLB halves since the New York Yankees rose to prominence in 1996. Certainly since they started steamrolling clubs in 1998. Interestingly enough, 1998 was also the first year Milwaukee switched (was switched) to the Senior Circuit.
Since the move, the Brew Crew has finished fifth, fifth, third, fourth, sixth, sixth, sixth, third, fourth, second, second, and that last time they were the proud owner of the 2008 NL Wild Card. Their American League days weren't any brighter—the AL version hadn't made the playoffs since 1982.
Last year saw the Brewers' management stumble onto a young core of offensive talent with just enough pitching i.e. Ben Sheets to have a legitimate shot at the postseason. Milwaukee just needed one more genuine arm in the rotation and—to the credit of the powers-that-be—the club grabbed C.C. Sabathia. Of course, it was no secret that this was a first/last hurrah.
There was never any sincere intent to retain the services of the big hefty, I mean lefty. That was cool.
What isn't cool is that nobody mentioned that part of the deal was letting Sheets walk as well. Nobody mentioned that part of the deal was getting...uh, nobody to replace the two aces.
The offense is still there, but look at the rest of the roster and it barely merits discussion:
Projected starting lineup
Catcher—Jason Kendall
First base—Prince Fielder
Second base—Rickie Weeks
Third base—Bill Hall
Shortstop—J.J. Hardy
Left field—Ryan Braun
Center field—Mike Cameron
Right field—Corey Hart
Hall is already playing to reputation with what sounds like a serious ankle injury so Mike Lamb or Craig Counsell figures to take reps at the hot corner for the time being. Wunderkind Matt Gamel might sneak into the picture although there doesn't seem to be any reason to rush any more offense to the Show.
Starting rotation
Ace—Yovani Gallardo (R)
Second spot—Dave Bush (R)
Third spot—Jeff Suppan (R)
Fourth spot—Braden Looper (R)
Fifth spot—Manny Parra (L)
Um...I'm gonna hold off making the substance of my comments for down below, but I'll just say that's a terrifying rotation and not for good reasons. Looper's already got something biting in his oblique and that's b-b-b-b-bad news for a pitcher so the Brewers will have to dig deeper into a pretty bare cupboard for another starter.
Some sites show lefty Chris Capuana on the roster. Others show Seth McClung. I even spotted Chase Wright. Let's just move on.
Bullpen
Closer—Trevor Hoffman (R)
Set-up—Eric Gagne (R)
Set-up—Jorge Julio (R)
Set-up—David Riske (R)
Set-up—Carlos Villenueva (R)
See what I mean?
Brewer fans have been long suffering and got a little relief last year, a little glimpse of life outside the cave. But now it's back to the chains and shadow puppets for what looks to be eternity.
Sure the offense is amazing, but I'm not gonna sing its praises because that lets the Milwaukee Brewers management off the hook. I have to believe this was their plan all along—yank Sabathia aboard for a desperate run at the World Series and, if it works, wonderful. If not, the suits could hide behind the young bats while the other half of the team headed for greener pastures.
Honestly, look at that pitching staff. And not just the starting rotation—although that's enough to make anyone sick.
So the answer to the aces' exits was Braden Looper? C'mon, really? Braden freakin' Looper to compensate for C.C. and Sheets?
Furthermore, Yovani Gallardo is a young stud with one of the brightest futures in all of baseball. And I'll gladly sign off on anyone called El Chupacabra. But he has 21 total starts in his career and 17 of 'em came in 2007—he missed all of 2008 with a brutal knee injury, he's 23, and you're forcing him into the ace's role.
Awesome.
Dave Bush is a fantastic pitcher. At home. On some days. Jeff Suppan is just good enough to consistently get a job and then make people wonder how he continues to get a job.
Manny Parra? I'd say he'll be around for at least another year or two before he's never heard from again. And until Looper heals up well enough to inflict his unique brand of torture on the home crowd, I have no idea where Milwaukee's gonna look.
Seth McClung cannot be a serious option.
With a starting five like that, it might not matter much that the bullpen is like the Night of the Living Dead Closer. Trevor Hoffman was amazing in San Diego, but his best days are well behind him and his stuff is not suited for the band boxes in the NL Central nor the potent offenses that inhabit those "parks."
Eric Gagne just makes me shake my head. That guy is to pitchers on juice what Barry Bonds was to hitters and yet he just skates. Whatever, he's been a thunderous disaster ever since being dumped from the primary closer's role a couple teams back and I see no reason for a sudden resurrection.
Jorge Julio once closed for somebody right? David Riske was actually a good arm as recently as 2007 so maybe last year's campaign was just a blip and he'll revert to his effective ways.
That would be one arrow in the quiver.
No doubt about it—Milwaukee will put up a lot of runs. Prince Fielder will bomb away and J.J. Hardy will join in the fun. Mike Cameron may strikeout a billion times, but he'll do his share of damage to opposing pitcher as well. Sooner or later, Rickie Weeks WILL become a faster, less powerful version of Brandon Phillips. Corey Hart is one of those neo-physical freaks who can motor despite being built like a linebacker.
Ryan Braun might be the best of the whole bunch. And that's just great.
You don't win 90 games blowing the barn doors off the hinges. The season's too damn long for that. Even the best offenses must win some games despite only scoring three or four runs.
Right now, the Milwaukee Brewers don't have the arms for that. Not even close. As far as I can tell, it's El Chupacabra and pray for rain. And it's a damn shame because those fans deserve better than such nonsense.
Because this could just be the most potent cellar-dweller in recent memory.
And then there are those brave bodies who root on the Milwaukee Brewers.
You could make an argument that the National League has been the distinctly inferior of the two MLB halves since the New York Yankees rose to prominence in 1996. Certainly since they started steamrolling clubs in 1998. Interestingly enough, 1998 was also the first year Milwaukee switched (was switched) to the Senior Circuit.
Since the move, the Brew Crew has finished fifth, fifth, third, fourth, sixth, sixth, sixth, third, fourth, second, second, and that last time they were the proud owner of the 2008 NL Wild Card. Their American League days weren't any brighter—the AL version hadn't made the playoffs since 1982.
Last year saw the Brewers' management stumble onto a young core of offensive talent with just enough pitching i.e. Ben Sheets to have a legitimate shot at the postseason. Milwaukee just needed one more genuine arm in the rotation and—to the credit of the powers-that-be—the club grabbed C.C. Sabathia. Of course, it was no secret that this was a first/last hurrah.
There was never any sincere intent to retain the services of the big hefty, I mean lefty. That was cool.
What isn't cool is that nobody mentioned that part of the deal was letting Sheets walk as well. Nobody mentioned that part of the deal was getting...uh, nobody to replace the two aces.
The offense is still there, but look at the rest of the roster and it barely merits discussion:
Projected starting lineup
Catcher—Jason Kendall
First base—Prince Fielder
Second base—Rickie Weeks
Third base—Bill Hall
Shortstop—J.J. Hardy
Left field—Ryan Braun
Center field—Mike Cameron
Right field—Corey Hart
Hall is already playing to reputation with what sounds like a serious ankle injury so Mike Lamb or Craig Counsell figures to take reps at the hot corner for the time being. Wunderkind Matt Gamel might sneak into the picture although there doesn't seem to be any reason to rush any more offense to the Show.
Starting rotation
Ace—Yovani Gallardo (R)
Second spot—Dave Bush (R)
Third spot—Jeff Suppan (R)
Fourth spot—Braden Looper (R)
Fifth spot—Manny Parra (L)
Um...I'm gonna hold off making the substance of my comments for down below, but I'll just say that's a terrifying rotation and not for good reasons. Looper's already got something biting in his oblique and that's b-b-b-b-bad news for a pitcher so the Brewers will have to dig deeper into a pretty bare cupboard for another starter.
Some sites show lefty Chris Capuana on the roster. Others show Seth McClung. I even spotted Chase Wright. Let's just move on.
Bullpen
Closer—Trevor Hoffman (R)
Set-up—Eric Gagne (R)
Set-up—Jorge Julio (R)
Set-up—David Riske (R)
Set-up—Carlos Villenueva (R)
See what I mean?
Brewer fans have been long suffering and got a little relief last year, a little glimpse of life outside the cave. But now it's back to the chains and shadow puppets for what looks to be eternity.
Sure the offense is amazing, but I'm not gonna sing its praises because that lets the Milwaukee Brewers management off the hook. I have to believe this was their plan all along—yank Sabathia aboard for a desperate run at the World Series and, if it works, wonderful. If not, the suits could hide behind the young bats while the other half of the team headed for greener pastures.
Honestly, look at that pitching staff. And not just the starting rotation—although that's enough to make anyone sick.
So the answer to the aces' exits was Braden Looper? C'mon, really? Braden freakin' Looper to compensate for C.C. and Sheets?
Furthermore, Yovani Gallardo is a young stud with one of the brightest futures in all of baseball. And I'll gladly sign off on anyone called El Chupacabra. But he has 21 total starts in his career and 17 of 'em came in 2007—he missed all of 2008 with a brutal knee injury, he's 23, and you're forcing him into the ace's role.
Awesome.
Dave Bush is a fantastic pitcher. At home. On some days. Jeff Suppan is just good enough to consistently get a job and then make people wonder how he continues to get a job.
Manny Parra? I'd say he'll be around for at least another year or two before he's never heard from again. And until Looper heals up well enough to inflict his unique brand of torture on the home crowd, I have no idea where Milwaukee's gonna look.
Seth McClung cannot be a serious option.
With a starting five like that, it might not matter much that the bullpen is like the Night of the Living Dead Closer. Trevor Hoffman was amazing in San Diego, but his best days are well behind him and his stuff is not suited for the band boxes in the NL Central nor the potent offenses that inhabit those "parks."
Eric Gagne just makes me shake my head. That guy is to pitchers on juice what Barry Bonds was to hitters and yet he just skates. Whatever, he's been a thunderous disaster ever since being dumped from the primary closer's role a couple teams back and I see no reason for a sudden resurrection.
Jorge Julio once closed for somebody right? David Riske was actually a good arm as recently as 2007 so maybe last year's campaign was just a blip and he'll revert to his effective ways.
That would be one arrow in the quiver.
No doubt about it—Milwaukee will put up a lot of runs. Prince Fielder will bomb away and J.J. Hardy will join in the fun. Mike Cameron may strikeout a billion times, but he'll do his share of damage to opposing pitcher as well. Sooner or later, Rickie Weeks WILL become a faster, less powerful version of Brandon Phillips. Corey Hart is one of those neo-physical freaks who can motor despite being built like a linebacker.
Ryan Braun might be the best of the whole bunch. And that's just great.
You don't win 90 games blowing the barn doors off the hinges. The season's too damn long for that. Even the best offenses must win some games despite only scoring three or four runs.
Right now, the Milwaukee Brewers don't have the arms for that. Not even close. As far as I can tell, it's El Chupacabra and pray for rain. And it's a damn shame because those fans deserve better than such nonsense.
Because this could just be the most potent cellar-dweller in recent memory.
The St. Louis Cardinals' 2009 Slightly Premature Preview
It is with a somewhat heavy heart that I write the following. You see, the St. Louis Cardinals were my first baseball love. I was born in the shadow of the Gateway Arch in 1978, which means I reached Major League Baseball consciousness right around the time the Redbirds were rolling to the 1985 World Series. Alas, my almost-four-year-old brain couldn't retain any of the 1982 memories so '85 was my indoctrination.
Don Denkinger and I are still not on speaking terms. It figures that I was sincerely part of the last fanbase to suffer heartbreak at the hands of the Kansas City Royals.
Despite that unpleasantness, Ozzie Smith's back flips, defensive magic, and flair for the key hit made him the Wizard. He, Tommy Herr, Jack Clark, John Tudor, Todd Worrell, Vince Coleman, Willie McGee, Joaquin Andujar, Terry Pendleton, and Andy Van Slyke turned St. Louis into Oz with our very own Emerald City inside the walls of Busch Stadium. That fairytale lasted four great years and ended in 1987 when my family moved to the suburbs of San Francisco and a new love affair/Greek tragedy started.
But just like in the real world, you never forget your first baseball love so I've always kept an eye on the Cards (plus we still have family friends who bleed Cardinal red). And that eye has always seen a competitive team with a legitimate shot at the postseason.
Unfortunately, 2009 might be the first year in several where STL needs tons of help just to stay afloat in the fight for a shot at MLB's brass ring. If that help doesn't come, it could be the first very long year for baseball under the Arch in a while. Check it:
Projected starting lineup
Catcher—Yadier Molina
First base—Albert Pujols
Second base—Skip Schumaker
Third base—Troy Glaus
Shortstop—Khalil Greene
Left field—Ryan Ludwick
Center field—Rick Ankiel
Right field—Chris Duncan
On the surface, that looks awesome. The problem is there's no guarantee that Schumaker can handle the jump to the infield even though second base is the best place to put a mediocre gloveman (as long as he can turn the double play smoothly). The bigger problem is Glaus just started taking ground balls for the first time since shoulder surgery. If either of those guys isn't ready for Opening Day, St. Louis will have to turn to Brendan Ryan, Joe Thurston, Brian Barden, and/or somebody named David Freese. Yikes.
And if it's Schumaker who can't cut it, he moves back into the crowded outfield where the Redbirds already have Colby Rasmus chomping at the bit.
Starting rotation
Ace—Adam Wainwright (R)
Second spot—Todd Wellemeyer (R)
Third spot—Chris Carpenter (R)
Fourth spot—Kyle Loshe (R)
Fifth spot—Joel Pineiro (R)
Again, that looks pretty solid, right? Again, there's a glaring weakness and thy name is Chris Carpenter. If he continues his strong Spring and rides it through the season, that's actually a pretty good rotation. And even major surgery doesn't seem to preclude an eventual return to greatness these days so there's no reason to bet the house against the once formidable righty. But, man, that's a tenuous foundation for your rotation.
Because if Carpenter can't take all his starts or is a shell of his former self, somebody's gonna have to pick up the slack and St. Louis doesn't seem to have many large caliber weapons left. Brad Thompson and Mitchell Boggs are next in line.
Bullpen
Closer—Chris Perez (R)
Set-up—Ryan Franklin (R)
Set-up—Kyle McClellan (R)
Set-up—Brad Thompson (R)
Stepping back from that picture, the first thing that absolutely smacks you in the face is the outfield situation. What the hell was St. Louis' usually astute management doing this offseason?
Ryan Ludwick was an unexpected and genuine monstrosity last year to the tune of a .299 average, 40 doubles, 37 bombs, 104 runs scored, 113 runs batted in, a .375 on-base percentage, and a .966 OPS. Even if he tails off a bit this year (totally understandable), I'd say he's a keeper.
The same can be said of Rick Ankiel, who's a very good defensive piece to boot even if he's not as gifted as a lot of center fielders roaming the Bigs. More importantly, you like Ankiel for his .264 average, 21 doubles, 25 HRs, 65 runs, 71 RBI, .337 OBP, and .843 OPS in only 413 at-bats.
Add the (allegedly) incomparable tools of Colby Rasmus to the picture and I'd say the outfield present and future is more or less covered in St. Louis.
Chris Duncan didn't have a great 2008, but he put up 20+ home runs in the two previous years so he could fetch something on the open market. And maybe the move to the infield works out for Skip Schumaker. Like I said above, if that happens then all of this is moot and the STL powers-that-be look like Illuminati.
If not, they look pretty stupid because moving either or both probably could've netted a decent arm in return and that's what St. Louis really needs.
Consider that Ankiel and Ludwick are already joined by the best hitter in MLB. Albert Pujols was dinged up last year and managed to hit "only" .357 with 44 doubles, 37 taters, 100 runs, 116 RBI, a .462 OBP, and a 1.114 OPS.
My goodness.
Not only that, but the Redbirds actually get contribution from their Flying Molina Brother, too—Yadier managed a .304 average from the backstop. Additionally, Troy Glaus should see the field whether or not he's there from day one—and he's always good for 25 or so HRs—and Khalil Greene is a decent contributor from short.
Realistically and even if the Schumaker gamble works out, St. Louis could still be in a world o' hurt.
That rotation is no guarantee even if Chris Carpenter can hold it together. I believe Adam Wainwright and Todd Wellemeyer are the real McCoys. And it's never wise to underestimate the ability of Dave Duncan and Tony La Russa to squeeze every last bit from their arms. But still...
Joel Pineiro? Kyle Loshe (I know he had a superlative year in '08)? And those names bandied about to replace Carpenter aren't gonna terrify any Big League hitters.
Not to mention the bullpen could be an out and out disaster.
Again, I believe in its base—Chris Perez. He's young and got a pretty wicked arsenal as his K per inning average attests. But those names that figure to form the bridge to him could be anything from the next Carlos Marmol to the next LaTroy Hawkins.
Those types turn into Hawkins far more frequently than Marmols. If/when that happens, you're gonna have a shaky starting staff handing off to a bullpen prone to surrendering grand slams handing off to an unproven closer. Somewhere in the course of 162 games, one of those weak links is gonna break the chain.
When that happens, the genius of Duncan/La Russa better be ready because all the offense in the world isn't gonna right the ship.
Don Denkinger and I are still not on speaking terms. It figures that I was sincerely part of the last fanbase to suffer heartbreak at the hands of the Kansas City Royals.
Despite that unpleasantness, Ozzie Smith's back flips, defensive magic, and flair for the key hit made him the Wizard. He, Tommy Herr, Jack Clark, John Tudor, Todd Worrell, Vince Coleman, Willie McGee, Joaquin Andujar, Terry Pendleton, and Andy Van Slyke turned St. Louis into Oz with our very own Emerald City inside the walls of Busch Stadium. That fairytale lasted four great years and ended in 1987 when my family moved to the suburbs of San Francisco and a new love affair/Greek tragedy started.
But just like in the real world, you never forget your first baseball love so I've always kept an eye on the Cards (plus we still have family friends who bleed Cardinal red). And that eye has always seen a competitive team with a legitimate shot at the postseason.
Unfortunately, 2009 might be the first year in several where STL needs tons of help just to stay afloat in the fight for a shot at MLB's brass ring. If that help doesn't come, it could be the first very long year for baseball under the Arch in a while. Check it:
Projected starting lineup
Catcher—Yadier Molina
First base—Albert Pujols
Second base—Skip Schumaker
Third base—Troy Glaus
Shortstop—Khalil Greene
Left field—Ryan Ludwick
Center field—Rick Ankiel
Right field—Chris Duncan
On the surface, that looks awesome. The problem is there's no guarantee that Schumaker can handle the jump to the infield even though second base is the best place to put a mediocre gloveman (as long as he can turn the double play smoothly). The bigger problem is Glaus just started taking ground balls for the first time since shoulder surgery. If either of those guys isn't ready for Opening Day, St. Louis will have to turn to Brendan Ryan, Joe Thurston, Brian Barden, and/or somebody named David Freese. Yikes.
And if it's Schumaker who can't cut it, he moves back into the crowded outfield where the Redbirds already have Colby Rasmus chomping at the bit.
Starting rotation
Ace—Adam Wainwright (R)
Second spot—Todd Wellemeyer (R)
Third spot—Chris Carpenter (R)
Fourth spot—Kyle Loshe (R)
Fifth spot—Joel Pineiro (R)
Again, that looks pretty solid, right? Again, there's a glaring weakness and thy name is Chris Carpenter. If he continues his strong Spring and rides it through the season, that's actually a pretty good rotation. And even major surgery doesn't seem to preclude an eventual return to greatness these days so there's no reason to bet the house against the once formidable righty. But, man, that's a tenuous foundation for your rotation.
Because if Carpenter can't take all his starts or is a shell of his former self, somebody's gonna have to pick up the slack and St. Louis doesn't seem to have many large caliber weapons left. Brad Thompson and Mitchell Boggs are next in line.
Bullpen
Closer—Chris Perez (R)
Set-up—Ryan Franklin (R)
Set-up—Kyle McClellan (R)
Set-up—Brad Thompson (R)
Stepping back from that picture, the first thing that absolutely smacks you in the face is the outfield situation. What the hell was St. Louis' usually astute management doing this offseason?
Ryan Ludwick was an unexpected and genuine monstrosity last year to the tune of a .299 average, 40 doubles, 37 bombs, 104 runs scored, 113 runs batted in, a .375 on-base percentage, and a .966 OPS. Even if he tails off a bit this year (totally understandable), I'd say he's a keeper.
The same can be said of Rick Ankiel, who's a very good defensive piece to boot even if he's not as gifted as a lot of center fielders roaming the Bigs. More importantly, you like Ankiel for his .264 average, 21 doubles, 25 HRs, 65 runs, 71 RBI, .337 OBP, and .843 OPS in only 413 at-bats.
Add the (allegedly) incomparable tools of Colby Rasmus to the picture and I'd say the outfield present and future is more or less covered in St. Louis.
Chris Duncan didn't have a great 2008, but he put up 20+ home runs in the two previous years so he could fetch something on the open market. And maybe the move to the infield works out for Skip Schumaker. Like I said above, if that happens then all of this is moot and the STL powers-that-be look like Illuminati.
If not, they look pretty stupid because moving either or both probably could've netted a decent arm in return and that's what St. Louis really needs.
Consider that Ankiel and Ludwick are already joined by the best hitter in MLB. Albert Pujols was dinged up last year and managed to hit "only" .357 with 44 doubles, 37 taters, 100 runs, 116 RBI, a .462 OBP, and a 1.114 OPS.
My goodness.
Not only that, but the Redbirds actually get contribution from their Flying Molina Brother, too—Yadier managed a .304 average from the backstop. Additionally, Troy Glaus should see the field whether or not he's there from day one—and he's always good for 25 or so HRs—and Khalil Greene is a decent contributor from short.
Realistically and even if the Schumaker gamble works out, St. Louis could still be in a world o' hurt.
That rotation is no guarantee even if Chris Carpenter can hold it together. I believe Adam Wainwright and Todd Wellemeyer are the real McCoys. And it's never wise to underestimate the ability of Dave Duncan and Tony La Russa to squeeze every last bit from their arms. But still...
Joel Pineiro? Kyle Loshe (I know he had a superlative year in '08)? And those names bandied about to replace Carpenter aren't gonna terrify any Big League hitters.
Not to mention the bullpen could be an out and out disaster.
Again, I believe in its base—Chris Perez. He's young and got a pretty wicked arsenal as his K per inning average attests. But those names that figure to form the bridge to him could be anything from the next Carlos Marmol to the next LaTroy Hawkins.
Those types turn into Hawkins far more frequently than Marmols. If/when that happens, you're gonna have a shaky starting staff handing off to a bullpen prone to surrendering grand slams handing off to an unproven closer. Somewhere in the course of 162 games, one of those weak links is gonna break the chain.
When that happens, the genius of Duncan/La Russa better be ready because all the offense in the world isn't gonna right the ship.
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