When I Was a Child I Had a Fever

One Last Look at the SF Giants Before the Majesty of Opening Day

2009-04-05T10:27:00.000-07:00

It's official—Opening Day for the 2009 Major League Baseball season has finally arrived.

The first pitch of the game tonight between the defending World Champion Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves will herald the opening of another 162-game sprint. The rest of baseball opens tomorrow or on Tuesday.

Our beloved San Francisco Giants are among that latter group of teams whose fans must endure not one, but two barrages of opening days before seeing their favorite set of nine take the diamond.

Hopefully, the '09 season will be worth the wait.

And, if you like the optimistic interpretation of the Orange and Black's spring session, there is very good reason for hope.

By now, the secret (if you could ever really call it that) is out regarding San Francisco's pitching staff. Even the cooler heads around MLB expect the Giants to sniff around the edges of the National League West race based on the arms alone.

Having done so a number of times, there's no reason to further extol the virtues of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Randy Johnson, Barry Zito, Brian Wilson, and the rest of the bullpen.

Nothing has changed except for the usual minor bumps and bruises of the preseason.

Who knows whether those are genuine or just possum sightings in an extended Spring Training and who cares? The Big Unit's sore, Sanchez burned his finger, and Wilson has some sort of infection in one of his digits—none of that sounds terribly serious even if legit.

Nah, the developing story as SF romps into the regular season is the offense:

1. Pablo Sandoval hit .442 with three home runs in 77 spring at-bats.

2. Freddie Lewis hit .366 in 71 ABs.

3. Emanuel Burriss hit .341 in 85 ABs.

4. Eugenio Velez hit .324 in 68 ABs.

5. Travis Ishikawa hit .316 in 79 ABs.

It's true veterans like Edgar Renteria, Randy Winn, Aaron Rowand, and Bengie Molina all struggled. But this was a brutally long and alien preseason because of the World Baseball Classic.

If veterans tend to coast through a normal Spring Training, it would stand to reason 2009's was even less enthusiastically received. This is why it's important to pump the breaks as the boys break camp (I'll get to that later).

Barring substantial injury, Winn is gonna hit around .300 with 10-15 HRs, 30-40 doubles, and he'll steal you around 20 bags. Forget about his spring and write it down—not only are those essentially his career averages over 162 games, they're basically the numbers Randy's tallied every year since 2002.

Rowand and Molina should put up a very similar year compared to the production the two players combined for in 2008.

By that, I mean Molina will probably regress a little because his '08 body of work was a masterpiece of clutch hitting and carrying an offense using sheer power of will. His year doesn't look too unusual compared to the rest on his resume, but he was playing the role of Barry Bonds last year and not doing a poor job considering the amount of pressure such entails.

It's unfair to expect Big Money to do that again—the man is mortal like all others (except for the chemically enhanced Super Bonds).

On the other hand, Rowand had the year most people expected after leaving the potent lineup and small yard in Philly. He lost almost half his '07 runs, over half of his bombs, almost 20 runs batted in, and he dropped 30 points off his average.

While Bengie will probably come down to Earth a tad, Rowand should be able compensate by having a better year, the one he's capable of having—it won't look like his breakout season in 2007, but somewhere in between should do nicely.

Who knows what the Giants will get from Renteria? I doubt it will be as profound an upgrade as the brass is trying to spin it, but the dude HAS to be an upgrade.

Even if the new shortstop returns to his most glorious of glory days, this was never a splinter that was going to power the offense. At his pinnacle, Edgar was a very nice piece to move runners around and score runs himself.

But his OPS maxed out at .874 in 2003 and has broken the .800 barrier precisely three times in a 13-year career. In other words, all versions of Renteria will need help from the rest of the bats—a rejuvenated one included.

Which is why the springs put together by some of the younger guys are so encouraging.

Unfortunately, it is my duty to remind you, fair reader, Spring Training must be taken with a grain of salt.

It is not usually representative of the regular season for many, many reasons. Perhaps the most significant is the different approaches different players take.

Unproven commodities trying to make the team or win a starting spot tend to attack the preseason with a midseason ferocity. Established players tend to coast or focus on weaknesses.

Pitchers usually work on their arsenals in a piecemeal fashion—that greatly skews the hitting sample because a power pitcher may be working on his dookie or a crafty vet may be working one approach with predictable and hittable repetition.

Mix it all together and you'll see some highly misleading results.

This is the other way to interpret the spring session—the pessimist's perspective. And there's more to it.

If SF's glass is half-empty, you must also include the rising expectations and the solidifying NL West picture.

A young ballclub like the Giants needs to sneak up on people to maximized its potential. Our guys can no longer do that—MLB has circled Sandoval as a guy to watch and treat gently.

The impressive production from the other youngsters will certainly raise a few eyebrows, skeptical brows though they may be.

I implied the cover had recently been blown off the pitching staff, but—in truth—the Freak's Cy Young probably did that a while ago and the Big Unit's arrival only drew more attention. It's a safe bet even casual observers knew this would be the strength of the team and one of the better collections in all of baseball.

The San Francisco Giants are no longer flying under anyone's radar—they're a big, loud blip on the screen. That doesn't necessarily mean they won't play loose and free to potential, I'm just saying it's gotten more difficult since February.

Furthermore, both the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks are looking stronger and stronger.

LA obviously gets a boost from Manny Ramirez, but Matt Kemp sounds like he's maturing mentally as well as physically and that could mean trouble for the rest of MLB. The rotation still looks borderline dreadful to these eyes, but James McDonald could turn that ship right around if he can tread Big League water.

In Arizona, you're starting to see stirrings from Eric Byrnes and Felipe Lopez is beginning to worry me. If Byrnes can return to a shadow of his top gear and Lopez becomes the player experts once thought he was destined to become, the Snakes' O gets a dramatic boost.

Throw in a resurgent Chad Tracy, a core of young-but-experienced uber-talents (Stephen Drew, Mark Reynolds, Chris Young, Connor Jackson, Justin Upton, etc.), that ridiculous staff with Max Scherzer progressing at the back end, and the Diamondbacks look more like the team to beat with each sweep of the clock.

If you've got your rose-colored specs on, the young maple and ash has you feeling pretty good about the boys. The pitching should be able to compete with any team's stable so it won't take too much offense to hang with the other contenders.

The seeds of that offense seem to be blooming so indulge those dreams of an NL West flag.

If you've draped yourself in a wet blanket, Spring Training is meaningless and popping up on the radar screen turns the San Francisco Giants from dark horse to overrated in the wink of an ESPN column.

The beautiful thing about Opening Day is that we get to start stripping away the ifs and see who's right.

It's time for some real baseball.

Today, life is very good.

Sticks & Stones Break Bones—Words Are More Dangerous in the UFC

2009-04-04T12:57:00.000-07:00

By now, if you will ever care enough to be so, you are aware the notoriously porous filter between Dana White's brain and his mouth has gotten the the Ultimate Fighting Championship President in a some rather lukewarm water.

Despite his apparently sincere-though-rough apology, I'd imagine the story has a little more leg left in it.

And, to be honest, it should—just not for the reasons driving its current popularity.

I see no reason for homosexual slurs to be tolerated any more than racial ones. If this reporter from Sherdog happened to be black and monsignor White had dropped the n-bomb on her, seas would've boiled with even more fervor and justifiably so.

But therein lies the rub—heretofore those haven't been the rules of engagement for the colorful language Dana used.

I know not to drop "n*gger" in any sense that could be construed as inappropriate. As a white male, that basically means I can never use the word; there's a decent chance that last one might get me in some trouble (I hope it doesn't since I'm discussing the word and continually referring to the n-word and n-bomb seems unnecessarily childish—we do not live in a Harry Potter novel).

And that's fine—I've got no truck with taking that particular profanity out of my lexicon nor do most reasonable people.

If that's the direction society wants to go with "f*ggot" and its equivalents, wonderful. I'll sign any petition or rally behind any tangible effort, even though I tend to agree with the other side of the argument i.e. the only way to make a word go away is to rob it of its significance by pretending it doesn't have any until it doesn't.

Regardless, you can't just spring a new import on people.

We can't suddenly decide Dana White is the sacrificial lamb that announces to the country, "if you use the word, everyone gets to assume you're a bigot across the board."

Liberal/progressive thought to the contrary—and I put myself in the latter part of that group—only the n-word (I'm not pushing my luck) has raised that presumption before now.

Those based on homosexuality, gender, religious affiliation, etc. have been heavily frowned upon and get you a serious slap on the wrist if you're a public figure caught using one. But a racial slur ups the ante in America (especially one directed at African-Americans) and everyone knows the implication is a more indelible one.

I don't know how you make a similar pronouncement about other slurs, but you can't simply point your finger and say, "you're the one." Especially not when the target is the face of an essentially renegade entity built around revenue from a combat sport.

Let's be clear about this—Dana White is kind of an idiot and he certainly deserves a reprimand of some sort, but this rant alone is not reason enough for me to believe the guy discriminates against homosexuals.

It's just another example of Dana being a fool, playing to the bad-boy CEO image he adores so much.

I generally like him, but I don't believe for a second that the dude's 100 percent on the up-and-up. And this is hardly the first time he's used suspect judgment and/or language. As Irish Mike D pointed out in the latest of his too-rarely occurring masterpieces, this is a guy whose catch phrase is not a hallmark of articulate eloquence.

This is not Roger Goodell nor David Stern nor even Bud Selig. The UFC is not the National Football League nor is it the National Basketball Association nor is it Major League Baseball. And most of its fans hope it never is.

The sport of mixed martial arts is simply too brutal to ever become as popular as any of the big three. Not in its current iteration. Only a much more sanitized version could ever crack into the upper echelons of popular athletics.

For instance, my father and my flatmate (what is the American equivalent because roommate makes it sound like we share a room and we share an apartment) would have to be described as macho men. They both are the rugged outdoors types, love football, guns, fishing, hunting, the whole nine yards.

And neither one will watch MMA—the spectacle of two humans apparently trying to do substantial damage to each other will never appeal to them.

Shoot, I love MMA and was hooked when Gerard Gordeau kicked some sumo dude's teeth into the crowd at UFC I. But even I have a hard time stomaching fights like the ones where Edwin Dewees got opened up or the same happened to Joe Stevenson at the hands of B.J. Penn (and yet I watch every second, what does that say about my mental health?).

Bottom-line—if you enjoy seeing one individual spurt blood all over another, I hope we're friends because I want you on my side.

Yet, opening a gushing wound is a primary goal in MMA for many reasons—it can directly stop the fight, the sight of your own blood freaks some people out, it can reduce vision, etc. Furthermore, any blow with an elbow or knee—legal and effective blows in the UFC—that finds its mark will usually cut/split flesh.

Other MMA "touchdowns" or "home runs" would be viciously knocking your opponent unconscious with said knee/elbow/any of the other four strike points, straining/tearing ligaments via submission (although done effectively, it's merely the threat of such damage), choking him/her into surrender, or simply pounding the other fighter until an impartial observer has seen enough punishment.

No, the UFC and its combat partners are not meant for as general consumption as football, basketball, and baseball. Can you imagine one of those commissioners openly associating with these men?

Those are the executives who started a multi-million dollar business (TapOut) from scratch and the face-paint is standard i.e. it's not coming off for board meetings.

Additionally, they are sufficiently large pillars of the MMA community that the UFC gave a touching tribute to the man up front (Charles "Mask" Lewis) who recently died in pretty horrible car crash.

The UFC is basically a real-life version of professional wrestling minus a good deal of the sideshow. So why is there such profound outcry over Dana White putting his foot in his mouth (again)?

Is this woman even a lesbian? Did White know she was a lesbian?

It seems to me Dana was merely giving over to his typically ridiculous, profanity-spewing character with his usual lack of discretion. Again, it shouldn't be ignored because, as the UFC gains in audience, it should respect the broader consequences of such influence.

But let's try to stay calm, folks. Even our beloved partner, FOX Sports, issued an article by Alex Marvez saying this episode could spell the end of the UFC. How does that make sense?

The gaping wounds, fracture bones, broken joints, and brain trauma are no problem, but Dana's rant? No sir, the advertisers won't do business with that. Which is what I'm talking about.

In order for Marvez' piece to be even remotely possible, we'd have to read serious significance into White's words. We'd have to believe his use of homosexual slurs reflects an inherent bigotry, much like the inference raised by public use of racial slurs.

It's just not true or, rather, the leap isn't fair—show me a red-blooded American male and I'll show you someone who's called one of his friends a "f*g" or some derivation at one time or another. In jest or in the heat of battle.

Hey, I've done it and I've got absolutely no problem with homosexuality.

I used to work out at the Gold's Gym in the Castro here in San Francisco because I lived in the Lower Haight. This is not the place for homophobes, but if you're cool with gay men (there are no women here—ok, there's one for every 30 men), it's great. It was like a two-hour ego boost because, apparently, gay men really like obviously straight ones.

And theirs is a different world, man.

I had a dude hit on me—after asking me to remove my earphones, mind you—by telling me I was putting on weight and it looked fabulous (I'm not kidding in the slightest).

If I drop that line on a young lady, there's gonna be a mushroom cloud of destruction radiating from her and extending to any female within earshot. But this dude—who could have beat the [expletive] out of me, by the way—said it like it was the highest compliment given in his world. Bizarre.

Anyway, the point is we are told as children that words can never hurt you. As we become adults, we learn this isn't exactly true and there are some words that society has decided actually do hurt its members.

Malicious slurs of all kinds fall into this group, but only racial slurs have historically been deemed so injurious as to strictly prohibit their use—no matter the intent or context.

The story should not be what an evil man Dana White is and how his inappropriate language may shake the foundation of the sport. It should be used as an examination of how this country views homosexuality and whether it's time we acknowledge that being gay is no different than being a different race or gender.

It's not something anyone can control so why is it that, historically, people like Dana White haven't been castigated like Michael Richards? Why is it that, historically, we haven't been expected to be as careful with homosexual slurs as racial ones?

Why is it that an unprejudiced man's defective judgment will catch a racial slur, but not a homosexual one?

That should be the story because that is the difficult question and, consequently, the more important one.

Curse the Chicago Bears and Jay Cutler

2009-04-03T18:29:00.000-07:00

This is all going to end poorly.

And I don't mean poorly for the Chicago Bears or Jay Cutler—I mean poorly for us, the non-Bear fans of the National Football League.

My stance on Jay Cutler is a matter of public record. I won't rehash the subject—suffice it to say I'm not a fan of the way he handled the situation. However, I never doubted the guy's talent. Jay Cutler is absolutely one of the most talented quarterbacks currently spiraling the pigskin.

When you have oodles and oodles at QB, it doesn't take too much more talent to create a special situation.

I don't know much about the Denver Broncos except that their defense was putrid last year and the entire team was decimated by injuries to key parts. And that they almost made the playoffs on Cutler's back.

Cutler still managed to buoy the franchise to some big wins and the peripherals of the American Football Conference playoff race despite the marginal players around him—granted, had the team made it, it would've been through the side door since the AFC West was so weak (eventually sending the 8-8 San Diego Chargers to the playoffs).

Nonetheless, the fact remains that the precocious QB would've taken the Broncs to the postseason if not for losing the tie-breaker to the Bolts.

So, yeah, Jay Cutler's got some run in him. He's got game if I can date myself.

Enough game, actually, that Da Bears have suddenly become a juggernaut in the National Football Conference.

Seriously, you KNOW that defense is going to bring the wood. Its ranking from 2008 is misleading because Chicago's D saw the most offensive plays in the NFL. That would presumably be a function of their notoriously poor offense since Urlacher's unit allowed a paltry 4.9 yards per play, good for fifth in the League.

Trailing only the Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers, the Philadelphia Eagles, the Baltimore Ravens, and the Tennessee Titans. Who looks out of place on that list?

Hint: it's the team that watched the playoffs from home.

Yes, Brian Urlacher has lost a step—there's no shame in succumbing a tad to the grind of the NFL and that's all he's lost, a tad. I'm still taking him over most of the linebackers in the League.

And I'm not a Bears fan.

I have nothing against them since their legendary battles with my San Francisco 49ers were a little before my time in football. Rather, I point out I'm not a fan of the team to emphasize that health may very well have been a factor in Chicago last year as it was in Denver. It doesn't matter too much to me since I think the defense was underrated in '08 anyway.

But it could be astounding in 2009 considering Jay Cutler should reduce the defense's workload, which should help Urlacher and the rest of his mates stay fresh (and healthier if it was an issue in '08).

I know one man (or man-boy) cannot turn a bad offense into a great one, but a fantastic signal-caller can turn a bad offense into a decent or even good one. Cutler's ability is, without a doubt, fantastic.

Of course, let's not forget the emergence of Matt Forte last season. If not for the superlative seasons of Matt Ryan and (to a lesser statistical degree) Joe Flacco, Forte would've gotten a lot more love because the kid put up one hell of a season.

Toss in the signing of Orlando Pace, the steady and superb Olin Kreutz, the developing Devin Hester, an overlooked talent in Brandon Lloyd (who's now got a real QB throwing him the ball), the athletically gifted Greg Olsen at tight end, and there are some pieces to like in a vacuum.

With Jay Cutler figuring in the equation? They become a whole lot shinier and the picture starts looking less like a one man show.

More importantly, each incremental step of progress on offense should be matched by a much larger one on defense. That should, in turn, help the offense with better field position, larger margin for error, less pressure, etc. With each side feeding the other and Cutler's supreme talent as the seed, the final product should be more than anyone in the NFC can handle.

And that's really bad news for NFL fans who don't happen to root for the Chicago Bears because it only reinforces Jay Cutler's behavior.

He whined, stamped his feet, and lied—sorry, I don't believe for a second Josh McDaniels and Pat Bowlen are lying about their attempts to get Cutler on the phone. He acted selfishly and conceitedly because, as Mark Schlereth pointed out, this is hardly the first time an employee has been lied to by his bosses (if that's in fact what happened).

Now, it seems he'll be rewarded for it.

Because, if and when the Chicago Bears begin turning heads next season, who do you think the networks and media outlets are going to side with? Who do you think will be crucified? All the more so if the Broncos struggle—as they probably will having lost a franchise QB and replacing him with Kyle Orton and draft picks.

Not to mention a new and (increasingly) unpopular coach.

When all is said and done, Jay Cutler's going to come out smelling like a rose and Denver will have a different odor.

And that's unfortunate.

Because it's tolerating the Jay Cutlers that produces a Plaxico Burress or Chad Ocho Sinko or Terrell Owens or...Jay Cutler.

Apparently, this guy has already crossed swords with Ron Turner when he was at Illinois. And he refused a trade to the Cleveland Browns because he didn't want to play for Eric Mangini.

The release of Owens and Burress where small steps forward for the NFL, moving the League closer to a future where the lunatics don't have such free reign over the asylum.

Steps that will be totally obliterated when the Chicago Bears and Jay Cutler become the toast of the town in 2009.

Manny Ramirez in La La Land—One Step Closer to the Abyss

2009-04-02T18:52:00.000-07:00

Whenever I'm feeling particularly agitated, I turn to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Why you ask? Because, as a die-hard San Francisco Giants fan, I can spew venom all over the Bums and do so haphazardly with little or no repercussions.

That's the beauty of being in a blood-rivalry.

As long as I stay away from really crossing the line in a personal manner, especially with regards to Dodger fans, I feel confident that all will be forgiven if I'm wrong.

Maybe not forgiven as much as turned against me with a commensurate lack of mercy or care and that's the way it should be. All in good fun.

The players in these wars are always fair game. Obviously within reason—if ever some Dodger has, say, a handicapped kid or relative and I were to incorporate that in an attack born of baseball hatred, I should be taken behind the woodshed.

Same if I were to sincerely and recklessly imply something like infidelity, fraud, parental neglect, or some equally serious accusation.

There's no reason to take swings in real-life like that. Baseball is a game and there is plenty of ammunition provided for criticism between the foul lines. But when it comes to that performance on the diamond?

Game on and gloves off.

Enter Manuel Aristides Ramirez with his latest public pronouncement that he needs more work before being primed for the regular season.

Manny says Manny needs more flyballs in games because the speed just isn't the same for Manny in practice. Manny says Manny needs more at-bats before Manny will feel comfortable and hit like Manny. And he's right.

Ramirez made an error in the field on one of the few chances he got in Arizona and even the best hitters need a minimum number of looks at pro pitching before they can find their swing.

Of course, as is typical of Manny, it's always "I need this, I want that, I, I, I, me, me, me." And it's always something with him. Furthermore, the bitching and moaning is frequently in public.

More importantly, Ramirez rarely (I originally wrote 'never') takes personal responsibility for his role in creating the sources of his complaints. Clearly, in this latest episode, the fault for the rust on his game lies at the feet of Manny Ramirez.

Exclusively and without question.

He petulantly and greedily sat at home (or wherever) while his super-dog agent haggled for the "perfect" contract to protect both massive egos. When Manny finally did arrive, it was well into Spring Training and he went down with a hamstring issue almost immediately—whether it was genuine or not is essentially irrelevant since his availability was limited in either case.

It comes as no shock to anyone except possibly Man-Ram that he's still behind in his development for Opening Day. So why is he making a point about the need for additional reps?

Who knows? And that's the most important problem with Manny Ramirez—he has an ugly recent history that allows for hacks like me to speculate wildly about his latest grievances.

Is this a subtle jab at Joe Torre for using the prized slugger too soon in the field, resulting in the aforementioned ding? The thought crossed my mind and I'm sure I'm not alone because that's what Manny being Manny has meant to me lately—copping out and hiding from responsibility.

Is it setting up an excuse for a slow start Manny's planning because he's decided playing a full season at full tilt is unnecessary, both to win the division and to maximize his 2010 contract? Again, it seems reasonable to this Dodger-hater and, again, I'm sure I'm not alone.

Or is it just a pro ballplayer innocuously responding to a question put forth by a reporter? Yeah, that's probably what it is. I'd love to say this is the least likely scenario, but, in truth, it is blatantly the most probable one.

Unfortunately, with Manny Ramirez, that ceases to matter with time.

It's only April 2nd—Manny's already generated more headlines for off-field issues before the season's even started than most good players will make all year. And this is before he's really gotten completely emerced in the celebrity glitz and glamour of Los Angeles.

The more nonsense he generates, the less slack he gets.

How long before the Los Angeles press turns on him? How many of these public little gripes will the city's most opinionated pens tolerate his incessant squabbling? Even when they're in response to questions put forth by their own ranks.

Even when Manny's right and the comment is harmless.

Some journalists love a good story regardless of whether it means clawing at a local superstar—it happened here in San Francisco with Barry Bonds and he was no less sympathetic a figure in the City than Manny is in LA. Remember, almost every Giants fan LOVED BLB at the height of his chemically enhanced powers and many of us still do (the player, not the man).

With Manny lacking an adequate filter between his brain and mouth combined with his love of an open microphone, there will be no shortage of material even in the best of times.

In the worst of times, Manny's mouth is a gushing hydrant of gasoline on an open flame.

Good Manny means an exciting season spent at the front edge of contention for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Bad Manny means their season disappears into the abyss.

And each sound byte from Manny that can be misconstrued is one step closer to it. That's bad news for the Bums.

John Calipari: Following Nick Saban's Lead Right Down to the Conference

2009-04-01T10:12:00.000-07:00

Kentucky basketball is screwed.

Maybe not this year, maybe not next year, maybe not for many years down the road. But the check is already in the mail—the only question is how long its transit time will be.

"I want to be here. This is where I want to coach."

Those were John Calipari's own words soon after his Memphis Tigers were eliminated from the NCAA tournament when questioned on rumors of his jump to the University of Kentucky. He went so far as to dismiss the whispers as just your typical postseason carousel speculation that fans of major programs hear every year.

"Our fans, I think, have gotten used to it."

Yeah, you know what else college fans have gotten used to?

Bald-faced, through-your-teeth, pants-afire liars.

And handing our athletically gifted teenagers over to them for "guidance."

People like Nick Saban and Bobby Petrino jump to mind, but the college ranks of job-hoppers are swelled by more than just these two men (and now Calipari). Who knows how many unaired, yet equally explicit promises have been broken as guys bounce from one big payday to the next biggest one on the rung?

You can say that none of the above were lying, that they really did want to stay where they were and couldn't envision leaving. To which, my response would be, sell that [expletive] somewhere else.

Hey, these "men" aren't totally dumb—they know the name of the game and the game is always looking for greener pastures. So either these pubescent adults were lying to the public or themselves and I"m not sure which is more dangerous.

Granted, not all coaches are dishonest—some stay true to their word and give it sparingly.

And not all of the snakes will get caught. The real world doesn't work in absolutes although it makes for a nice opening hook to, say, an online article.

In fact, the percentage of despicable college coaches probably lands well short of even 70 percent.

But should we tolerate business as usual if only a third of coaches are crooked as a dog's hind leg? Maybe, unless your kid happens to be considering a school and, thusly, the sway of one such reprehensible individual.

After all, when it's your kid's athletic and psychological maturation at stake, one in three looks a damn sight more perilous.

Furthermore, what are the chances that other coaches see the examples set by guys like Calipari/Saban and think it's a bad idea? These are two highly successful and well-compensated coaches, it wouldn't appear their conduct has hurt their prospects or reputations in the slightest.

Saban just won Coach of the Year and is raking it in at Alabama.

Meanwhile, Calipari just got over $30 million from a public institution in an economy that's seeing HUGE pillars of this country's financial infrastructure crumble in a matter of months.

(Quick digression: Petrino's at Arkansas, why is it the SEC that keeps loving the scoundrels?)

Shoot, judging from these guys and others, maybe sleazing your way from job to job is a good idea. A strategy best emulated rather than avoided.

So where is the justice?

For the individuals? Justice rarely comes or it happens privately. If a guy like Petrino ever does get his comeuppance, there's a very good chance we'll have stopped paying attention and he'll never volunteer it.

Unfortunately for the fans and the players, the public vindication befalls the universities that choose to employ and richly reward men who have demonstrated a willingness to chase whatever is in their best interest to the detriment of anyone in his universe.

Men who have a proven ease and comfort with deception that wouldn't sit well with me if I were entrusting them with the relatively fragile minds and psyches of a portion of America's youth. Not if I were entrusting them with that profound responsibility and then giving them millions of dollars to do it.

Do you think a man who would come on air, reassure a rabid and wounded fanbase that he's not going anywhere, and then leave within a week would have a problem breaking an NCAA regulation here or there?

Think that guy's gonna totally respect the number of phone calls and text messages you can send to a recruit? Or any other of the thousands of little technicalities that, superficially, look impossible to patrol?

The snag, of course, is the details are NOT impossible to regulate—programs get flagged every year.

Unfortunately, the coach usually isn't the one paying because he has moved on (or easily can). It's the fans, the current players, and the other people connected to the school with more permanence that suffer the true indignation of having wins stripped or scholarships yanked or probation imposed or some other disciplinary sanction.

Nah, the coaches can usually skate—it's everyone else who feels the sting.

Now, let me clarify that I have no problem with moving around as long as you're up front about it. I wouldn't be writing this if Calipari had said, "yep, going to UK is a real possibility," or "we'll see what happens," or even, "there's a small chance, but I like it here."

Any of the three would be the way an admirable leader should answer because such a person should know there will be public outcry no matter what—that is the nature of being in the spotlight and answering difficult questions.

The easy road is the one you can hide from by dealing with it remotely i.e. by lying to delay it until you are safely ensconced in supporters of the program benefited by your move.

The right one is to treat those connected to the program with the respect and integrity they deserve. The right one is the honest answer, which first requires that you're honest with yourself.

And Kentucky just landed an expert in deception. So good luck with all that.

No. 756 in the Warm and Fuzzy World of Barry Lamar Bonds

2009-03-31T11:16:00.001-07:00

I have no illusions that this will be a popular article. People will not react positively to it or will flat-out ignore it and that's cool—I'm well aware that Barry Bonds is persona non grata as far as the general public is concerned.

For good reason.

The guy is a Class-A prick by all accounts and there are just too many to dismiss them all as suspicious hearsay.

Bonds is the perfect example of what happens when a (presumably) spoiled and pampered child matures, but in body only. The vast majority of the blame is on Barry, but some of the figurative blood is on our hands—on our culture's hero-worship of gifted athletes from high school onward in Barry's day and much earlier now.

If you think guys like Barry were/are bad, just wait for the 10- to 12-year-olds who are being slobbered upon today to arrive in the professional ranks tomorrow. But that's a story for another time.

A second lesson Bonds' exemplar teaches is what happens when a ballplayer takes the very accurate description of baseball as a team game assembled from individual confrontations and carries it to a deleterious extreme.

Barry Bonds truly believed and made himself an island in a clubhouse that should function as a cohesive unit. He was arguably good enough to compensate for the damage he did in this regard, but Bonds did damage.

Make no mistake about it.

Baseball is not as discrete as it looks—there are subtle threads that connect the batter to the baserunner to the fielders to the pitcher and they are constantly being adjusted. Except when Barry was out there—ironically, in this regard, he came no-strings-attached (hahaha, wordplay).

There are many other negative things you can say about Barry Bonds, the least of which is his ongoing performance-enhancing drug issues.

Each new name has proven and will continue to prove the PED problem cannot be used to smear one individual from this era.

Whether it be Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire, Roger Clemens, Eric Gagne, Brian Roberts, Gary Sheffield, Alex Rodriguez, Rick Ankiel, Jason Grimsley, Miguel Tejada, Andy Pettitte, Jason Giambi, Ken Caminiti, Wally Joyner, Jack Cust, Ryan Franklin, Chuck Knoblauch, Paul Lo Duca, Kevin Brown, or any other of the hundreds of users (either admitted, alleged, or undiscovered).

It's all or nothing, baby.

Still, PED-use is not a badge of honor yet it's firmly affixed to Barry's over-inflated chest. That it doesn't even rank as one of the reasons to be righteously disgusted by the guy says more than you need to know about just how flawed the man is.

But this is about how I see Barry. And I'm a die-hard San Francisco Giants fan who couldn't care less about the personal lives or habits of celebrities/pro athletes.

Honestly, take that TMZ crap, People magazine, all those behind-the-scenes shows about athletes on ESPN, MTV Cribs, etc. and sweep 'em up into a pile. Then nuke the entire thing—the world would be an infinitely healthier, wealthier, and wiser place.

Really though, it's about rooting for the team that Bonds carried to contention almost single-handedly—even the years with more talent around him in the lineup (like 1993 and 1997-2002) saw Barry do most of the heavy lifting. Considering how average many of those pitching staffs were, there was a lot of lifting to do.

So I've always loved the guy. To me, he is only Barry Bonds the great San Francisco Giant—he is not Barry Bonds the odious off-field personality. It's a fine and convenient line, I know.

But it allows me to be one of the few people who gets to really savor the New and Technologically Improved Home Run King. More specifically, it allows me to be one of the few people who gets to appreciate just how special No. 756 was.

Major League Baseball, its fans, and basically the entire baseball-watching world has ignored Bonds' record-breaking big fly from the moment it cleared the fence. Again, I've got no problem with this—I'm not saying everyone should appreciate it.

I'm just emphasizing how few people really look at it closely enough to realize how perfect it was.

And it was perfect. P-E-R-F-E-C-T...

1. No. 756 came at home in Pac Bell Park.

Bonds had already become public enemy numero uno in 2007 so this was the only place the big bomb would've played well. Plus, Pac Bell is the Park that Barry Built regardless of what Peter McGowan wants you to believe.

Most SF fans love him and we went crazy when he finally hit the milestone.

2. It came on a 3-2 pitch.

The most incredible thing about the chemically-enhanced Barry was how he never seemed concerned with the count. It seemed like he squared EVERYTHING up on the screws regardless of whether it was 0-2 dookie or a 3-1 cripple fastball (which he never saw).

Plus 3-2 is just a cool count because you know something will happen and that's the way it was with Barry Bonds—you didn't miss his at-bats because you knew something was going to happen.

3. It was a solo shot.

Barry Bonds redefined how the opposition handles supremely dangerous hitters in watered-down lineups. He simply did not see pitches to hit with men on base if the hurler could help it. Consequently, it seemed like all of Bonds' long balls came with the sacks empty—that's the only time pitchers dared challenge him.

Who says ballplayers are dumb?

4. No. 756 put the Giants ahead 5-4.

It wouldn't surprise me if 90 percent of Barry's homers put the Giants ahead, pulled them even, or brought them to within a run. Obviously, the proportion isn't close to that so I would be very surprised, but you get my point—most of his dongs seemed to be crucial to the team's ultimate success.

Barry leaves a wide swath of irony wherever he goes.

5. Barry crushed that ball.

This is perhaps the greatest tragedy of MLB trying to move passed the moment as quickly as possible (again, not a bad/unfair decision) because you don't see the shot replayed very often. Well, I've got it saved for posterity on my TiVo (or until it gets reset) so all I have to do is hit play to watch it whenever I want.

Trust me, Bonds got every little bit of that ball. He hit it well out to the deepest part of Pac Bell, I'm talking WAY out of Triples Alley. Even the heftiest of hefty hitters rarely challenges this particular dimension.

If you're wondering how Benjie Molina managed to record a three-bagger in 2007, I give you Triples Alley. And No. 756 sailed right over it.

Furthermore, everyone knew it was gone from the minute it left the bat.

It was a HUGE fly with the all-important and melodious click of bat on ball that's really the pill saying, "Adios, I'm gone for good."

6. The Giants ended up losing the game in extra innings.

Individual excellence resulting in eventual team failure—the story of Barry's professional career, especially in San Francisco. He could take his team through many promised lands, but he couldn't ever goad them into The Promised Land.

Bonds came close in 2002 and would've been the World Series Most Valuable Player had Dusty Baker not wrestled defeat from the jaws of victory in Game Six. But baseball ain't horseshoes and it ain't hand grenades.

His 756th home run was incredible for the particular physical feat, for what the single homer announced about Barry's cumulative achievements, and because it embodied almost every element of his superlative career—warts and all.

Is Barry Bonds a wonderful human-being?

I don't know the man, so I won't answer definitively. But the signs point to 'No' and they're pretty tough to argue.

But, even if true, that just places Bonds on a very long list of very flawed individuals who have been blessed with incredible gifts—gifts that bring them attention, scrutiny, and pressure the likes of which most of us will never know.

Of course, this doesn't excuse Barry's behavior, attitude, or general treatment of other people in the slightest. And it's on him that so many people who love the game of baseball don't get to appreciate such a quintessential moment.

Instead, they feel obliged to acknowledge it if forced to do so and then to return to a world where it doesn't exist, which is exactly how most in baseball weathered the man himself. In a way, that makes the monumental shot even more perfect.

It sesms the only thing missing was LA.

Forget Firing Robert Powell, Make Him Suit Up for the Lions

2009-03-29T12:34:00.000-07:00

One of the more surreal stories the National Football League has ever spawned is developing in Dallas, Texas.

Considering all the chaos issuing forth from the NFL on an annual basis, that's saying something. It's so bizarre on so many levels, it's pushing even the memory of Terrell Owens to the back of the football world's mind despite taking place in the city that just gave him the boot (don't think TO hasn't noticed).

I'm glad I'm not Robert Powell in the wake of this story. Because I suspect he'll get exactly what he deserves and it shan't be pretty.

It seems Ryan Moats wasn't the first NFL player to be held at the mercy of this infant on a power trip. Although Zack Thomas wasn't the one cuffed and arrested for making an illegal u-turn, his wife is a close proxy and, in several instances, the law views one spouse as an extension of the other so the stretch is not a huge one.

There are several ways to interpret this latest news:

(1) Powell has a personal vendetta against pro football players because the odds of two people with direct connections to the League being his random victims are too small.

(2) Powell is a racist bigot—Maritza Thomas is Latin American. The Dallas Morning News calls her "Hispanic," but I thought that's a no-no. Whatever, I'm not really politically correct anyway since I don't care what race, religion, ethnicity, gender, sexual orientation, etc. a person identifies as—it's all cool with me as long as you don't force it down my throat.

The point is Maritza Thomas ain't white and neither are Ryan Moats nor the occupants of his truck. Robert Powell is.

(3) Powell is simply a perfect example of one abhorrent cop splashing mud all over the good shields of his fellow officers—drunk with the ripples he can send through his little pond.

If you ask me, I say it's No. 3.

That both Maritza Thomas and Ryan Moats happen to be connected to the millionaire-celebrity lifestyle of the NFL has to be mere coincidence. It's a crazy one to be sure—one level of surreality—but life is full of crazy coincidences.

My freshmen year in college, I happened to be put in the same dorm as a kid I used to trade Star Wars action figures with back in preschool. I had absolutely no connection to him in the 10+ years since then because we went to different kindergartens and then my family moved to San Francisco.

Plus, I only ran across his name looking through the facebook (the real thing before it was a cyberspace phenomenon) for cute freshmen girls. Otherwise, I would've never known he was there because of the way Stanford segments some of its larger dorms.

And that's one example—I'm sure other people have far more impressive examples.

The racism angle is, frankly, plausible. And this is coming from someone who loathes the race card.

Given the context, it's at least reasonable to argue this is another crazy cracker, good ol' boy from Texas going around and exploiting minor transgressions to their fullest extent under the letter of the law. Just to screw with minorities and establish an illusory dominance over them.

I lived in Austin for a year.

The capital is almost without a doubt the most liberal city in the Lone Star state, or it was in 2001 (admittedly, that's a pretty long time so things may have changed). Even so, I'd here n****r dropped in casual conversation on what seemed like a daily basis. Not just by young kids and bitter senior citizens, and in no way that could be construed as harmless or innocent.

In addition, the State was executing people like crazy. Most of whom were people of color and most of the crimes were not of the incredibly grotesque nature for which liberal use of the death penalty should be reserved.

So it's plausible, but the same coincidence rationale applies and with ever more force.

The number of non-white people in Dallas is obviously and exponentially larger than the number of people directly connected to the NFL or some other approximation. Furthermore, I have no real idea what the racial atmosphere is like in Dallas or Texas today.

My first-hand experience is from another city and damn near a decade ago. I'll give Texas the benefit of the doubt and extend it to Robert Powell via the State's implicit endorsement of him.

More importantly, what makes the interpretation of the episodes a no-brainer for me is we've all seen these kinds of authority figures.

Whether it's a cop in your own city, a security guard at some mall, some yard duty at a high school, a junior officer in your company, whatever. They're people who crave power and abuse whatever little bit of it they have.

Especially against those he/she sees as the biggest threats. And a control freak like Powell would logically feel most threatened by those who aren't intimidated by his pseudo-power. It's clear that, under the circumstances, the Moats entourage wasn't intimidated.

And it's not a stretch that the wife of an NFL superstar might exude an entitled, overly-aggressive attitude. Bingo, out come the handcuffs.

Robert Powell may be jealous of anyone with money and glamour. He may be a card-carrying member of the Ku Klux Klan. Who knows? I certainly do not.

I just think the law of probability favors something we've all personally-experienced backed by logical inference rather than reasonable-though-less-likely alternatives that would cause much more of a firestorm.

Unfortunately, some people like to inject as much incendiary scandal into an episode as possible and exploit mere coincidence to do so. But it's just wrong to assign causal relationships between things on such meager data as a sample set of two.

So, as paradigms of journalistic integrity like ESPN await further "progress" with salivating anticipation, I'm taking everything with a grain of salt because the most likely story is the one that will move the least ink.

Which means it's probably the one that's gonna get the least attention.

Joe Montana Vs. Steve Young—A Public Service Announcement for Peyton Manning Homers

2009-03-28T10:32:00.000-07:00

If you've been with Bleacher Report for a month, you're well aware of how damn tiresome the debate over Tom Brady and Peyton Manning has become.

Fools around the country are watching the sands slipping through the hourglass with increasing anxiety, our clocks have already leapt ahead, and you STILL see a flippin' article dissecting the two NFL stars on a weekly basis.

It's been almost two full months since the season ended and Tom Brady played one quarter! Yet they come out like clockwork—you'll probably see another after this is published.

The great majority come from Manning homers because, well, they're the only ones laboring under the misconception the question is close and worthy of incessant badgering.

Clearly, I'm not in Peyton's camp so this won't directly be about the current incarnation of a very old argument. If I allow myself to point out how easily Tom Brady outranks Peyton Manning one more time, even I'm gonna start hating Tom Terrific.

Either that or I'll have to file a restraining order on his behalf myself.

Nope, I'm gonna try to put a stake in the issue once and for all by analogizing to the version of the "debate" that finally sledgehammered enlightenment through my thick skull. After I handle this hot potato, I'll be taking down the Middle East hostilities.

Stay tuned.

The reason Brady versus Manning was a dead horse from blow one is because it's just an old question with new clothes. And the question's been answered. In fact, there's probably a very good chance all of the above applied with equivalent accuracy to my idea of the original argument—Joe Montana versus Steve Young.

I don't have a good sense of football history, but, even in the last decade of the 20th Century, novelty was dead.

I'm sure there were two quarterbacks from National Football League antiquity who played the roles of The Winner and The Stat Guy to some acclaim prior to Joe's and Steve's virtuoso performances.

Although I caught some of Joe Cool's best performances up close and personally, I was there for the entirety of the Stormin' Mormon's stampede through the NFL. From his hostile takeover in SF right until Aeneas Williams' brutality ended his career.

When I was a teenager, Steve had already assumed the mantle of San Francisco 49er starting QB from Joe. In the wake of this momentous, yet figurative upheaval in the Bay Area (a necessary qualifier since we get so many of the literal variety), Montana and Young supporters threatened to divide a once-united republic of Niner faithful.

I was and still am a fervent Steve Young guy. The only difference is, back then, I would go to the mattresses with anyone who argued against him as the superior signal-caller of the two.

He is and will always be my favorite QB of all-time. But these days, I realize he will be inferior to Joe Cool with equal permanency.

And that's because Steve Young was not cool. If he wasn't incredibly blessed with natural athletic ability, he never would've been mistaken as such.

The dude is a nerd and a weirdo, and neither of those things can be explained purely by his membership in the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints (although that certainly contributes). More pertinent, however, is that his poise couldn't match Montana's when the bright lights powered up.

Young was by no means a choker, but his postseason record was 8-6 in games where he attempted more than 15 passes. He has a Super Bowl ring, a Super Bowl Most Valuable Player award, and some of his single-game performances in football's second season defy comprehension (sound familiar?).

Unfortunately for my man Steve, Montana's mark using the same condition is 16-7 with the loss on January 9, 1988 to the Minnesota Vikings counting against both men. Putting further distance between the two all-time greats are Joe's four Super Bowl rings and his incredible ability to find a new level of brilliance apart from his regular season exploits under the heat of the football-watching world's stare (again, sound familiar?).

With the two side-by-side, Steve's body of work gets fugly. All the more so when you look closely at his legacy.

It will always include his amazing day behind center in Super Bowl XXIX among its loudest moments. But just as memorable are the Niners' notorious struggles with the Dallas Cowboys' Triplets and Brett Favre's Green Bay Packers under Young's stewardship.

Is that fair? Absolutely not.

Those 'pokes stand tall in a group of the NFL's best teams of all-time. They featured Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin, Troy Aikman, Alvin Harper, Jay Novacek, Daryl Johnston, Nate Newton, Larry Allen, Charles Haley, Erik Williams, Mark Tuinei, Mark Stepnoski, and Ken Norton Jr. That's off the top of my head.

The Packers weren't quite as loaded, but they had a better QB and a more balanced team with Reggie White anchoring the other side of the ball.

On the other hand, Montana obviously faced some rugged competition and he had less talent around him than Young. Much is made of Jerry Rice only being around for two of Montana's four championships, but other pieces were inferior to Young's as well.

Still, Joe didn't have to face ferocity like the Cowboys of the 90s or the Packers of the same decade with equal regularity (although the Chicago Bears were pretty good based on defense alone).

In truth, none of that really matters because football is the ultimate team game and the quarterback has always been/will always be considered the leader of his team. He is expected to deliver wins—by hook or by crook and against whatever caliber of competition—because they are the only thing that has ever mattered to true football Illuminati.

When his team wins, a QB gets the lion's share of glory. When it loses, he gets the same portion of blame. Such is the nature of being a leader in any capacity—you take responsibility for a unit's ultimate success or failure.

Without qualification. Any effort to do so compromises your ability to lead and your right to do so.

Furthermore, the NFL is not like Major League Baseball where individual success evolves almost independently of the team's due to its discrete nature. Baseball is said to be a team game assembled from distinctly individual confrontations and anyone who has watched or played knows this is an appropriate description.

Nonetheless, the most valuable players on an annual basis usually come from contenders—thus paying lip service to the idea that the most important contributions are those to winners. Even in baseball.

The premium placed on contribution to ultimate team success is infinitely higher in the NFL.

In pro football—any way you slice it, any way you dice it, using any statistical analysis made to date—a win will always be a win and a loss will always be a loss. Nothing else matters except whether it was a playoff or regular season W.

The postseason is where the best of the best are born, then proven via baptism by fire. And Steve Young's teams lost many of those most critical baptisms—that is the reality.

You can try to parse out blame and lay it at the feet of the defense or fumbles by other players or whatever. You can point out how individually sublime Young was, even in defeat. There is some truth to it and I would love to back the theory—it just doesn't work.

Believe me, I spent a good portion of my more idealistic days trying to force the issue. No joy.

Take the time-tested and specious argument about the defense.

There will be exceptions to the rule as there are with every one, but you usually can't point to a defense and say it's better because of those numbers applied from this angle. Again, football doesn't work that way.

How can you definitively prove that Montana's defense was better than Young's without reference to the quarterback?

How can you prove, beyond the doubt created by three extra championships, that Montana wasn't one of the primary reasons his defenses performed better? After all, if I'm getting nice long rests on the sideline while my quarterback chews up time and yardage, I'm going to be a better player when I get back on the field.

I'm not saying this is necessarily the case with Montana and Young (or Brady and Manning by analogy of The Winner vs. The Stat Guy). What I am saying is the complex interplay between all sides of a football team are far too hard to separate and accurately analyze with any of the current metrics.

Maybe ever.

There are literally thousands of variations similar to the link between QBs and the defense.

Homers will always try to exploit them and that is their right afforded by the same complexities. They will invent hypotheticals and shiny statistical approaches tailored to deliver a favorable verdict for their guy—that's precisely what I did for Steve Young.

But football is no more a game of what-ifs than it is one where true value is reflected by individual achievement. In this regard, football is no different than any other sport. Or area of life for that matter.

It doesn't matter what might've or could've happened because what might've or could've happened DID NOT happen.

Ryan Leaf might've been the best NFL QB of all-time if scenario A shook out rather than what did. Bo Jackson might've been the best running back the planet's ever seen if he didn't get injured. Archie Manning might've been the best Manning if he'd taken snaps for a better team.

Steve Young might've beaten the Triplets given Montana's defense or offensive line or Bill Walsh or whatever.

The hypos are interesting and, by all means, keep 'em coming. Be aware, though, their probative value is exactly squat because we don't know that Young plus Walsh would've been enough.

Even if I think it's a safe bet, how can you put high probability next to certainty and choose the safe bet? Montana DID win four Super Bowls, but, because there's a good chance Young would've won just as many with Joe's [blank], he gets the benefit of the doubt?

How insane does that look in print? Good lord.

And that's essentially what Joe Montana versus Steve Young boils down to. Same for Tom Brady against Peyton Manning.

What-if against what did.

What did happen is that Joe Montana and Tom Brady won when it mattered most. Far more frequently than they lost. They have shown a proven ability to use the glare of the spotlight as fuel rather than to shrink from its suffocating presence.

Steve Young never put together enough big wins to change the gap in perception between Joe Cool and him, as much as it pains me to admit.

If Peyton Manning ends his career suffering the same imperfection, his homers will eventually enjoy a similar revelation—that Tom Brady will always be the better quarterback.

And, on that day, they'll be ice-skating on the river Styx.

Through the Wardrobe—A Fantasy Look at the Pitchers

2009-03-26T13:47:00.000-07:00

In my previous piece, I said I tend to gloss over outfielders. If that's true (and it is), I flat out ignore pitching. Those of you looking for sturdy analysis of more than just the super-elite starters and closers should look elsewhere because I'm just going to hit the aces of the aces.

In other words, these are not the previews you're looking for (with a wave of my hand).

It should hopefully be a fun read though...

THE PITCHERS

I don't qualify that with 'starters' or 'closers' because I'll be handling both. And it'll still only be about 10-15 guys period. No second tier, no third tier, no fliers.

With the hurlers, the strategy is the important part of my analysis.

Start with the basic assumption that you can't win all the categories through astute drafting if you have 10 categories at a minimum, evenly split between offense and pitching.

You might luck out and hit several jackpots that result in an absolutely dominant team, but there's simply no way to scientifically do so—baseball is too unpredictable and too dependent on intangible, immeasurable forces.

Next, concede that hitters are far easier to predict, partially because you'll have at least twice as many at-bats as you'll have innings pitched on a weekly basis in most leagues. The larger sample size allows for more normalization to expectations when a player is meeting them—a couple bad days usually get erased by a couple good ones if the hitter is good.

Meanwhile, a single bad outing from one of your aces could very well torpedo the entire week's pitching categories. Worse, it might take your guy another start or two to get things righted.

Another reason hitters seem more reliable is because they are. For whatever reason, even the best pitchers will lose a year or two to injury and/or bad performance. That doesn't seem to be the case for the top 10-15 hitters on an annual basis.

I'll acknowledge this point is debatable—what's not debatable is my personal experience and/or luck.

In 2007, I drafted Roy Halladay as my primary starter and he had an off year. In 2004 and 2005, Doc carried a little more than half his usual workload due to injury. And this is arguably the most consistent virtuoso in baseball.

Last year, the first two starters I grabbed were Aaron Harang and Justin Verlander. Harang was so bad I eventually cut ties with him and Verlander was almost worse because I rode that horse right into the burning [expletive] barn.

The story with closers is no different.

Outside of the absolute cream of the crop, it's a crap shoot. Last year, I took the electric arm of Manny Corpas and the reliably high save total of Joe Borowski. Neither held the job beyond May and Corpas was done by April if memory serves me.

Brad Lidge was perfect and Huston Street imploded. Joakim Soria became unhittable while Billy Wagner's arm exploded.

Hence, faced with one set of categories that are more accurately predictable (even if only in theory), it makes sense to concentrate on those areas and pick a couple from the pitching side to address later in the draft where bargains are available.

For me, that usually means wins, saves, and strikeouts.

Why those three? Because owners who love pitchers chase earned run average and WHIP so those guys are gone really early. Way too early for my tastes.

Wins, saves, and Ks are available well down the pitching ladder and always emerge over the course of the season via the wire (much like useful outfielders).

A guy like Chien-Ming Wang is going with the 199th pick in the average Yahoo draft despite being a virtual cinch for 15-20 wins if he makes all his starts. He won't give you much in the way of whiffs and his ERA/WHIP combo won't make anyone stop the presses, but those are dicey metrics for even the best ace (as I alluded to).

With all the turmoil at the back-end of games over the course of a 162-affair season, new closers wait in the wings on draft day and others pop up midseason. Unless you can snare one of the top guys for value, go after a discounted one later and address more pressing needs in the moment.

Sure, Jonathan Papelbon is dynamite. The thing is, you can approximate his save total and strikeouts using two or three mediocre closers that you pick up in your draft's gloaming or off waivers.

If you're punting ERA/WHIP, then why not grab Aramis Ramirez or Jacoby Ellsbury or Geovany Soto? All three are going after Papelbon on average and there are other equally attractive options.

Of course, I'm not the only subscriber to this theory so all those guys may be gone. In that case, I'm pulling the trigger because I'll jump all over a top-flight ace or closer if he's the value pick i.e. all the pieces I want who are ranked around him have been snatched.

*Note: this just happened in my second and last draft—it totally screwed me. Guys I figured would be available much later were going all over the place (Pablo Sandoval went with the 74th pick) so I ended up with two aces (Peavy/Liriano) and two fantastic closers (Rivera/Soria). Meanwhile, I have Ryan Theriot at shortstop. Oh well.

With that in mind, here are the pitchers (both starters and closers) who I keep an eye on because one will eventually fall into a position where he becomes the best option for my strategy:

STARTERS

1. Johan Santana, New York Mets—234.1 IP, 16 Ws, 206 Ks, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP

As much as I love Tim Lincecum, even I have to admit that Santana makes more sense as the first arm off the board.

Had it not been for the Mets' implosion in the bullpen last year, the Cy Young may very well have landed in Johan's hot left hand. I'm not saying it would've been right because the Freak still kept pace with the New York southpaw while pitching for one of the worst teams in baseball.

But voters overvalue wins and Santana saw quite a few vaporize when handed to the firemen (who were more like arsonists).

Add those Ws onto his record and people would've made more of a fuss out of the similarities in the other peripherals between Johan's '08 campaign and that of the Franchise.

Having grabbed both Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz in he offseason, it looks like we'll see what Santana can do with an effective relief corps. He's already got a far better offense (understatement of the year) than Lincecum so the table seems set of quite a feast.

2. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants—227 IP, 18 Ws, 265 Ks, 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

If Lincecum is on 20 of 30 teams in Major League Baseball, he's the No. 1 pitcher taken in almost every draft. He's already going first in a whole bunch despite pitching in front of an offense that will be mediocre if the best-case scenario materializes.

At worst, it could make some minor league assembly of splinters ferocious by comparison. And I'm a die-hard fan of the Orange and Black.

Having said all that, I'd take Lincecum first in a heart beat because he's the big ticket for my favorite franchise and there's is nothing negative to say about the guy. Absolutely zero. And he'll be 25 in June so the best is yet to come.

The funny thing is—because winning the Cy Young has thrust Tiny Tim into the national spotlight—you're beginning to see a bunch of people opining on how it's only a matter of time before Lincecum blows out his arm or breaks down a la Pedro Martinez. They range from clueless to well-informed.

And they're all wrong.

I'm not saying Lincecum will NEVER break down—as I said, almost every pitcher hits the shelf sooner or later. What I'm saying is that, in SF, we've been hearing the awkward delivery song-and-dance ever since the youngster was drafted.

We've also been hearing how he's never iced his arm, never had any sort of discomfort, and how his delivery has been specially designed to minimize the strain on his arm rather than overwork it. Again, there are no guarantees in life—the theory behind the motion could be totally wrong.

But so far so good and, considering how long Lincecum's been using it, perhaps his unique mechanics have earned the benefit of the doubt?

3. Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays—246 IP, 20 Ws, 206 Ks, 2.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP

I'll say it again—Hallady is arguably the most consistent top-flight guy on the bump in all of MLB. Last season was a masterpiece even by Doc's lofty standards so don't expect a repeat.

But his ERA will always be in the neighborhood of 3.00 and his WHIP will almost always be south of 1.30. Those are insane numbers considering how explosive the American League can be with the designated hitter the AL East in particular.

Halladay will be 32 in May so his age isn't yet a big concern, even more so because his strikeout total jumped by almost 70 from '07 to '08. That's not exactly a reason to worry age is dulling Roy's effective edge.

Obviously, it would indicate quite the contrary.

Since the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox have all cranked it up a notch, I'm a little hesistant putting a pitcher who must face all three on a regular basis this high. Ultimately though, that's been the rub on Halladay for years and it has yet to really hinder his production.

4. CC Sabathia, New York Yankees—253 IP, 17 Ws, 251 Ks, 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP

I know, I just said I didn't like sticking an AL East hurler this high. The difference is Sabathia doesn't have to face the best lineup (on paper) because he pitchers in front of it.

Still, facing the Rays and BoSox will be no laughing matter for the hefty lefty.

Fortunately for the Bronx Bombers, I think they've finally scored a free agent who will answer the bell and meet expectations. Sabathia got off to a slow start in 2008 and, if he does that in New York, things could get interesting. Even if that happens, I still think CC has the mental constitution to persevere.

And I don't think that will happen.

Sabathia has never worked with the luxury of a loaded lineup and an impeccable closer like Mariano Rivera. Despite working with sub-standard supporting casts (in some cases), he's posted stellar season after stellar season.

Now, he's sharing a clubhouse with some of the best in baseball as he enters his prime ((29 in July).

The only thing keeping Sabathia this low is the unpredictability of the Big Apple's influence on players and the small red flag raised by an incredible number of innings over three years by modern baseball's standards.

I don't think either will be a serious concern after the first month.

5. Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks—226.2 IP, 22 Ws, 183 Ks, 3.30 ERA. 1.20 WHIP

Here's were the inevitability of injury starts rearing its ugly head. And for no other reason than Webb's consistency—he's taken basically every start since he arrived in 2003. Since then, Brandon's never made less than 33 starts in a year.

In '03, he made 28 starts plus a relief cameo.

The dude is as steady as they come and features a sinkerball, which isn't notorious like a curve ball for destroying elbows/arms. There's really no good reason to expect Webb to miss time.

But the fact remains the human shoulder wasn't designed to throw over the top and Webb's been doing just that like clockwork for six straight years. The landscape of modern baseball is littered with Tommy John surgeries and torn labrums.

I have yet to hear of a pro pitcher who didn't have considerable and permanent damage to his shoulder once his career was over. Shoot, I have fraying of my rotator cuff from my playing days, which ended in high school.

Each individual is different and there would not be rules without exceptions. To boot, Brandon Webb is in his prime, features a pitch that never seems to lose its effectiveness, and toes the slab for a pretty good club.

There are questions at the back of the bullpen since Chad Qualls has never seen serious run as a closer and Webb's defense—critical for a guy who induces as many grass-cutters as Webb—took a hit with the exodus of Orlando Hudson, who is one of the better leathermen in MLB.

But those are minor. If you don't buy the injury bug, draft Webb without pause.

6. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies—227.1 IP, 14 Ws, 196 Ks, 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP

The top of the pitching heap is so tightly clustered that Hamels' arm concerns knocked him from No. 3 to here. Each ace is so good and durable on this list that even the possibility of missing a significant number of starts is toxic.

It's knocked Josh Beckett all the way down to No. 9 and kept Francisco Liriano off altogether.

That said, the bugaboo seems milder by the day and Cole (already 25) is almost as young as Lincecum. There's a good chance he'd bounce back firmly and quickly from even a semi-serious ding, which this doesn't appear to be.

Granted, the southpaw saw a considerable surge in innings from '07 to '08 (over 40) and fanned amost 20 extra hitters as well as walking more, which usually indicates a general inflation in pitches per batter.

With that as the background to the elbow discomfort, the sirens get a little louder.

Nonetheless, Hamels is a scintillating talent with much potential left to harness and time to do it. He takes the pill for one of the scariest offenses in baseball that may be even better with the addition of Raul Ibanez.

You don't want to be too wary in the face of all that upside.

7. Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres—173.2 IP, 10 Ws, 166 Ks, 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

Peavy represents the flip-side of the inevitable injury coin. Here's one of the most reliable arms in baseball coming off a season hampered by injury.

This is the side I like because, if you think of the injury bug as a pressure valve that must be opened periodically to avoid destruction, Peavy's just let off his steam and should be good to go for a while. Meanwhile, a guy like Webb looks ready to explode at any second.

Additionally, Jake's production looks kinda pedestrian because of the starts he lost so he should be a bargain on draft day as long as your league doesn't feature any Padre supporters.

In the interest of equity, the injury may not be completely behind Peavy so he might struggle with it again this year. But that's not usually the pattern for these guys—I have no statistics to back it up, but the aces seem to have stretches of three or four healthy years before encountering another hiccup.

There's also the matter of a trade. While leaving the pitcher-friendly dimensions of Petco would potentially hurt Jake's ERA, his hit and whiff rates have always reflected a pitcher who excels with great stuff rather than contact finding mitts.

Plus, the trade would presumably send Peavy to a contender and an actual MLB lineup. That's gotta help.

8. Dan Haren, Arizona Diamondbacks—216 IP, 16 Ws, 206 Ks, 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

I am not a believer in Dan Haren.

For whatever reason, I still remember the kid who came up with St. Louis and never blew up my skirt. That's totally unfair because he's produced four straight years of fantastic work.

What makes my stance on Haren even more ridiculous are the trends. Almost all indicate the 28-year-old is approaching a prime that looks better than anything we've seen yet. All the more so because he's in a division weak on offense and strong on pitchers' parks.

Consider his whiff rate's been steadily on the rise, his walk rate's been on the fade if it's been moving at all, the same can be said of his WHIP, and he's allowing fewers homers each campaign.

Furthermore, his style isn't as defensively dependent so the only concern he shares with his front-end mate Webb is the unproven Qualls in the 'pen. What I didn't say about Qualls earlier is that his stuff is filthy so neither Webb's nor Haren's owners need to lose fantasy-sleep.

And yet I don't like him as a pitcher. Go figure.

9. Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox—174.1 IP, 12 Ws, 172 Ks, 4.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

As I alluded to above, Beckett falls this far because of health concerns. Like Peavy, Josh is coming off a season that saw his effectiveness limited by injury.

The difference between the two, other than the one year of age Beckett (29 in May) has on Peavy, is that Beckett's history is pockmarked with starts lost to injury. He's one of the exceptions to aces going down to injury once in a while.

Beckett seems to go down regularly and, even when taking starts, always seems to be suffering or recovering from some mallady.

Furthermore, the list of injuries that nagged the BoSox' ace in 2008 features a littany of potentially dire problems, each of which threatens to erode the very core of dominant pitching.

Beckett experience back trouble, soreness in his elbow, and then a torn obligue last season. If something had happened to his legs, Josh would've experienced substantial damage to every key element to the pitching motion.

Of course, I'm not a doctor or a Red Sox fan so I have no idea what the problems were nor how signicant. If they were just run-of-the-mill hot spots, Beckett will be no worse for the wear. If not?

Uh oh. Hard-throwers who lose movement tend to see a lot of pop-ups turn into big flies.

Honorable mention

Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins—hasn't quite regained pre-surgery form.

Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros—pitches in a live yard and in a division of live yards.

James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays—will eventually break through, but AL East is rough this year.

Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers—I hate the Bums, but this guy's legit.

CLOSERS 1. Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox—69.1 IP, 5 Ws, 41 saves, 77 Ks, 2.34 ERA, 0.95 WHIP

Papelbon didn't finish 2008 as the top rated closer in Major League Baseball, but he's probably the safest bet to finish there heading into most years. He is a 28-year-old clydesdale who closes games for one of the best teams in baseball, featuring arguably the best rotation and bullpen.

Although his blown save total, ERA, and WHIP jumped a tad last year while his K per inning ratio went down, there isn't much cause to panic. The big fella's innings increased, his walks decreased, his homers allowed decreased, and his save total increased.

And none of the fluctuations were too drastic so just consider '08 a slightly soft year that still qualifies as one of the best in baseball and keeps Papelbon right in line to be his dominating self in '09.

2. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees—70.2 IP, 6 Ws, 39 saves, 77 Ks, 1.40 ERA, 0.67 WHIP

If you're a baseball fan long enough, you see a lot of crazy things.

When Rivera's career is over and we have several years to really contemplate, to digest what he's accomplished, Mo may go down as one of the most profound mysteries in the history of the game.

This bad dude is 39 and coming off possibly the most stellar year of a career filled with years that qualify as some of the best of all-time. He cut his WHIP almost in half from '07 (1.12), reduced his ERA by more than half (3.15), cut his walks in half (from 12 to six), saved nine extra games, and did it all without adding appreciably to his fan total.

The Sandman did this all, as he always has, with basically one pitch: the feared cutter.

This is a pitch that causes some of the best switch-hitters to go up right-handed against the right-handed Rivera because it is so decimating on left-handed swingers. Dennis Eckersley and Trevor Hoffman both recognize Mo as the best ever and trace it to this pitch.

Future Hall-of-Fame hitters openly quiver at the idea of catching it on their hands, calling it the best pitcher ever thrown.

So, yeah, he's still reliable as he closes in on 40.

3. Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins—67.2 IP, 1 W, 39 saves, 74 Ks, 1.33 ERA, 0.90 WHIP

Nathan may very well deserve to be higher on this list, but playing baseball in Minnesota has never been the secret to geting your dues.

The fact remains, however, that Joe Nathan has been every bit the steadying influence that Papelbon and Rivera have been in recent years.

While his strikeout totals have declined, his ERA and WHIP have followed suit. Since Joe still whiffs more than a batter per inning, I think his owners and Twins' fans are more than satisfied with the development.

With a dynamite set-up crew in front of him and some fabulous young arms populating the starting rotation, the Twinkies have the pitching to compete. With Joe Mauer starting the season on the shelf and an already-weakish lineup, they'll have to do so by winning close games.

And that's good news if you can get your hot little hands on Nathan.

4. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals—67.1 IP, 2 Ws, 42 saves, 66 Ks, 1.60 ERA, 0.86 WHIP

A closer—from KC of all places—gets the last honored spot in this group of dominating, lights-out firemen. The Royals won 75 games in '08 and Soria saved 42 so don't worry about whether the whispers regarding the Crowns being a contender in '09 are realistic or not—it doesn't matter.

Joakim will come in a slam the door on whatever chances he gets and, since KC's pitching/hitting are still developing, most of their wins should provide ample opportunities for Soria to display his considerable wares.

In only his second year on the job (and his first full one), the Royal closer trimmed his ERA and WHIP while walking the same number and striking out fewer batters. That would indicate to me the batters aren't finding a comfort zone with el hombre despite the growing familiarity.

They're finding a way to get the bat on the ball with slightly more frequency, perhaps, but to the detriment of effective contact. Thusly, Soria's able to keep more runners of the bases despite more contact.

And that bodes well for the longevity of his reign of terror over opposing hitters.

Honorable mention

Bobby Jenks, Chicago White Sox—lost velocity in '08.

Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies—perfection in '08 doesn't totally erase doubts from Houston.

Francisco Rodriguez New York Mets—high save total doesn't obscure rising peripherals.

Matt Capps, Pittsburgh Pirates—hurt in '08, but quietly one of the best and on improving team.

Kerry Wood, Cleveland Indians—only one year on the job, but moves to bigger park.

Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs—can Lou Pinella really be serious about going with Kevin Gregg?

So there you go—the overview of my fantasy approach is done.

In conclusion, I'll offer one last bit of advice—I believe that the secret to winning a fantasy championship is very similar to winning the real thing in one key regard: you put together a team to make the playoffs and then hit the prayer circuit once you're there.

By drafting wisely and staying vigilant as you manage your club over the course of the season, you can realistically control whether your club qualifies for the postseason. With so many games, you can create a plan and then address the crises as they come to satisfying results.

But once it comes down to elimination based on a single week, it's up to the baseball gods.

And they are not merciful. Good luck.

Through the Wardrobe—A Fantasy Look at the Outfielders

2009-03-25T08:41:00.000-07:00

It's time for another editorial shift before I finish up my fantasy approach to the 2009 Major League Baseball season. Having assessed the infielders, attention now moves to the outfielders and pitchers—two groups that I tend to dismiss to a degree so my analysis will be a tad superficial.

I'll deal with the pitchers separately, so let's focus on the guys roaming the big real estate.

Almost a third of the top 100 fantasy players were OFs—if I did extensive analysis for the top two tiers, it would be about 20 stars (possibly more) and that would be an obscene read. The third tier would be just as fat by itself.

Furthermore, extensive analysis for a group this deep is somewhat unnecessary. There's simply not much difference between Alfonso Soriano (picked 15th on average in 2009) and Vernon Wells (picked 84th) except for personal taste. In between, you'll see fluctuations in the three main areas (power, speed, average), but the overall production will be pretty consistent.

Finally, helpful outfielders seem to always be available on the wire—far more so than the other offensive pieces. You'll see undrafted guys or late round picks make huge leaps (a la Ryan Ludwick and Nate McLouth) or top prospects emerge to become productive contributors (a la Jay Bruce in '08 or Corey Hart/Hunter Pence in '07).

These are the primary elements that make drafting them easier...

THE OUTFIELDERS

As I said in the introduction to this series, there are many general approaches to fantasy baseball. I use the rotisserie mindset in my leagues (which are head-to-head and 10-14 teams). Keep that in mind because, using this approach, drafting outfielders is almost an afterthought.

But my take doesn't work in all settings and/or for every owner.

If you want to...say...maximize production with each pick regardless of position because your league is huge or that's just your thing, then the outfielders would be critical. Several of the top producers every year navigate the outfield and there are some important differences between those.

So I'll write up probably 5-10 OFs more than the others just for those owners who don't like my stance. And for fun.

Subscribers to my camp (not that I lead it) would use the phrase "dime a dozen" for OFs due to the aforementioned similarity, depth, and post-draft availability of useful guys.

As long as you get one big name in the outfield early to go with elite infielders, you're good.

You can usually catch lightning in a bottle later in the draft by taking a bunch of high-risk, high-reward outfielders. That should allow you to walk away with two substantial contributors without wasting the extra early round pick (better spent on infielders or maybe a pitcher).

It's far more difficult to score a high-end dirt merchant later in the draft because most of even the shakier guys get snapped up early.

And there's still the matter of the studs who emerge as the season progresses. If you whiff in your late round efforts to find another stable outfielder, there's a good chance you can find one several weeks in via the wire.

With that in mind, here's how I see the outfielders:
FIRST TIER 1. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians—101 runs, 33 HRs, 90 RBI, 38 SBs, .268 average

This is the only tier that'll have much detail and the entry price is fairly simple—you've gotta have the potential to contribute in all three primary areas as embodied by the five standard categories (average, home runs, runs, runs batted in, and stolen bases) and contribute well.

Sizemore is almost the prototype—if not for the low-ish average he would be it.

And, at 26 (27 in August), there's reason to believe Grady will add the last element in 2009. This will be his fourth full season so it's about time for him to begin showing his maturity—to start combining his awesome physical ability with a growing-but-already-considerable reservoir of knowledge.

The icing on the cake, as far as I'm concerned, is Sizemore racked up those totals leading off for an underachieving Tribe in '08. I expect the Indians to be a major player this year and part of that is due to an overall improvement in the offense.

Grady Sizemore should both be driving the improvement and benefiting from it.

Having already improved on his plate discipline over the course of his short career, the Cleveland center fielder has all the makings of being a top five producer in all categories.

2. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers—92 runs, 37 HRs, 106 RBI, 14 SBs, .285 average

Braun is another guy who could be setting the standard for fantasy production by the end of the year. He's only 25 and 2008 actually was a bit of a regression from his rookie season.

I refuse to call that line a sophomore slump, but those who do will be looking for a rebound. I can't really conceive what a rebound from those numbers would look like, but I guess he could add 50 points to his average.

I think it's probably more likely that you see a modest increase across the board as Braun puts his five tools to work in a more familiar environment. Dude will probably never swipe more than 15-20 bags, but that's enough when you're flashing 100+/40+/100+/.300 potential on an annual basis.

And Ryan is but one man.

He's in a lineup with Prince Fielder (25 in May), J.J. Hardy (27 in August), Corey Hart (27), and a full year of Mike Cameron. All those elements should also buoy the left fielder's performance.

3. Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers—98 runs, 32 HRs, 130 RBI, 9 SBs, .304 average

Hamilton will be 28 in May, but he's got less Big League experience than the guys ahead of him because of his well-publicized trials and travails. And it's not outrageous to say he's got the most talent of the group.

Don't forget—this guy patrols center so he's got enough speed to steal more than those nine bases. Considering how much he's had to digest and overcome, base-running probably wasn't high on the list so Josh might just add some extra oomph there in 2009.

Nobody expected it from Matt Holliday last year, but he finished with more swipes than bombs.

Even if Hamilton just continues to toss in the odd theft when he's bored, the Ranger lineup was potent last year and figures to be even better this year. The loss of Milton Bradley will sting, but a full year of Chris Davis, Nelson Cruz, the hopeful arrival of Jason Saltalamacchia or Taylor Teagarden, and another year on Ian Kinsler should all help float Hamilton's boat a little higher.

And his numbers petered out a bit in the second half, possibly because Hamilton was unprepared for the strain of 162 games. If that was the issue, it should be corrected in '09.

4. Jason Bay, Boston Red Sox—111 runs, 31 HRs, 101 RBI, 10 SBs, .286 average

This one will draw some heat, but I really don't understand why Bay isn't getting more love. This guy was a top 20 outfielder while playing for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Even last year's numbers factor in over 100 games with the Buccos.

Bay is 30 so he's still in his prime and much has been made of how well his swing fits Fenway.

That makes 162 games spent in the murderous Boston order no small bonus. Especially since it , figures to be even better this year with a healthier year from David Ortiz and/or Mike Lowell plus another year of development on the youngsters (Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury).

The kicker is everyone's making such a fuss over Manny Ramirez. Well, the numbers from Manny's much-celebrated '08 campaign were basically the same as Bay's with a substantially higher batting average.

And Ramirez final line was the product of 100+ games with Boston and about 60 with the less-potent-yet-way-better-than-Pittsburgh Los Angeles Dodgers. I say Bay's line was better considering the context.

Regardless, there's a damn good chance Jason returns to his 2005 highs of 20+ steals and a .300 average to go with more runs, homers, and RBI.

5. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Rays—85 runs, 9 HRs, 67 RBI, 44 SBs, .273 average

Those numbers will look grossly out of place by the time this tier is through, but I'm obviously buying that Bossman Junior basically swung with one arm in '08. He had major offseason surgery to correct the problem and is now dealing with a bruised hand from an errant pitch, but neither seem to be of any concern.

Although, if Upton were playing that first week or two, he'd probably be above Bay. Unfortunately, the talent is so thick up here that even a minor concern can cost you a rung.

B.J. will be 25 in August and is surrounded by equally dazzling talent that seems to be developing at about the same rate.

Figure a healthy Upton basking in the glow of a full season from Evan Longoria, a return to form by Carl Crawford, another solid year from Carlos Pena, and a step forward for Dioner Navarro will be an enormous upgrade from last year's model.

He'll continue to blaze away on the base-paths (when he feels like it) and I'm betting he exhibits more of that postseason power now that Upton's got the benefit of both arms.

6. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets—116 runs, 27 HRs, 112 RBI, 25 SBs, .284 average

I don't like putting a guy who'll be 32 in April and with a history of injury problems this high, but Beltran's consistency deserves it.

The .284 was Beltran's highest tally since 2003 and one of the highest of his career so it's probably not sustainable. But he'll certainly hover around .270, which is fantastic when Carlos is a lock to chip in 25-30 taters with an equal number of steals.

In the Mets' lineup—where he's surrounded by Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Delgado—you can bet Beltran will score 100+ runs and drive in about an equal number.

However, the fact that Carlos may just as easily reel off 40+ bombs and thefts is what keeps him this high despite the small age/injury caution flags. While the odds of either happening are small, that there is just as much chance of an exceptionally wonderful season as there is of an exceptionally awful one is enough to keep Beltran breathing the rarefied air.

7. Matt Holliday, Oakland Athletics—107 runs, 25 HRs, 88 RBI, 28 SBs, .321 average

Look, you either believe this muchacho was a Coors Field specialty act and will just be very good now that home no longer features mile-high air. Or you believe he's a phenom regardless of time or place.

Clearly, moving into the heavier air by the Bay will take a bite out of his power numbers—he finished as the 9th ranked player according to Yahoo in '08 so I'm dropping him a bit.

But moving to the Land of the Designated Hitter should put some of that bite back in, even if it is Oakland. I'm already on record stating I believe the As will compete in '09 and Holliday rises to such occasions.

Who can forget the tear this guy went on when Colorado rampaged to the World Series in '07?

Then there are those 28 swipes and the average. Neither of those should be hurt too much by the move. Not all of those balls that stay in the park will be caught and Matt may feel the need to run more to compensate for any decline in power numbers.

The bottom-line is I'm a believer in Matt Holliday and this is where believers have him.

8. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles—106 runs, 20 HRs, 87 RBI, 10 SBs, .306 average

There are few things that excite baseball people more than a guy in his mid-twenties with five tools, a growing awareness of the strike zone, and an old school attitude. Markakis, at 25, has all of the above.

Last season saw a dip in Nick's RBI total, but he got on base with far more frequency via the walk while not losing his power stroke or points off his average i.e. Markakis was just as aggressive while being more selective. I like it and I'm not alone.

Helping Nick's case is the fortification of his surroundings—Baltimore's lineup isn't ready to compete with the bigguns atop the American League East, but it should be a lot better in 2009.

Adam Jones will improve after a full year's worth of experience and growth. Matt Wieters is up to show he's been worth the ink (or bytes). Brian Roberts is strapped to the ship for the long haul. And we'll see if the Resurrection Twins (Melvin Mora/Aubrey Huff) are for real.

In case anything goes wrong, Ty Wigginton is ready with a safety net plus Felix Pie might become something more than a blur and a bust.

Markakis was probably good for an increase across the board anyway since he's closing in on his power prime, Baltimore wants him to run more, and the aforementioned plate discipline should help the average. If the rest of the order can improve as well, 2009 could be special.

9. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros—61 runs, 28 HRs, 100 RBI, 4 SBs, .314 average

El Caballo will be 33 in June so it's with some reluctance I put him up here, but he's been as reliable as they come and last season's injury (broken finger) isn't particularly foreboding. What seals it is Lee's average of 12 swipes per season for his career.

That rocked me.

Carlos registered those 2008 numbers despite missing almost 40 games at the end of the season, which might shock other people. Yep, Lee missed almost a quarter of the season and still managed to hit the century mark in RBI and come within a whisker of 30 bombs.

With a 120 or 130 more at-bats to do some damage, his final line would have been a real embarrassment of riches even if his days of stealing 15-20 bags are over.

Such a glorious image earns el Caballo placement with the elite outfielders, the deteriorating Houston offense notwithstanding.

10. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays—69 runs, 8 HRs, 57 RBI, 25 SBs, .273 average

Crawford's is another set of numbers that looks out of place, but he missed over 50 games with a torn tendon in his finger and struggled up until suffering that injury with hamstring issues. The tendon seems like a freak thing while the hammy is a bit worrisome.

But Carl's been a runnin' fool in Spring Training so it doesn't seem to be worrying him or the Rays.

The really insane thing is, though Crawford's entering his seventh full MLB season, he'll only be 28 in August. It seems like he should be getting ready to retire and Carl's just entering his prime. While a leap after so many years in the Show would seem unlikely, much stranger things have happened.

Although Crawford lacks the 30-40 dinger pop the rest of the guys up here have, he possesses infinitely more speed than anyone save his teammate, B.J. Upton. And he's got Bossman beat at least as far as base-stealing prowess is concerned.

His injury-plagued 2008 campaign was the first full season in which Crawford failed to record a minimum of 46 swipes (two more than Upton's career high of 44).

More power may come for Crawford, but the speed ain't going anywhere.

11. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs—76 runs, 29 HRs, 75 RBI, 19 SBs, .280 average

Soriano's no longer a top tier outfielder in my personal opinion, but he makes the group because he's still considered as such by the fantasy community. This guy is the fifth OF taken in the average 2009 Yahoo draft, falling behind only Sizemore, Braun, Hamilton, and Upton.

That's ridiculous—Alfonso hits in a potent lineup and is one of the most productive players in the make-believe world...when healthy.

But it's the qualifier that does all the work. Well, the qualifier and his age (33).

For other guys on the list who suffered a trip to the shelf in '08, I made allowances. Guys like Lee and Crawford got the benefit of the medical doubt while I'm penalizing Soriano. Seems unfair, right?

The difference is I don't expect another large chunk of the season to be lost to injury by either of the aforementioned. I definitely expect that to be the case for Soriano; I'm counting on it.

Yet, the potential for a 30/30 or even 40/40 season perseveres if my man can just keep his parts in working order. Even such a remote prospect earns Alfonso a spot with the cream of the crop...begrudgingly.

SECOND TIER

12. Carlos Quentin, Chicago White Sox—96 runs, 36 HRs, 100 RBI, 7 SBs, .288 average

Everyone remembers the self-inflicted injury that end Quentin's season, but that's not why I've got him outside the top tier despite putting up a season that arguably qualifies in only 480 ABs.

I'm dinging him because 2008 is the lone season where Q's production matched his potential. He's only 26 (27 in August) so there's no reason to completely doubt him, but he quadrupled his career homer total in those 480 ABs.

There are flashes in the pan and there are superstars that take a little longer than others to arrive. Let's see which one Carlos is—he certainly has the ability to be the latter.

13. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers—102 runs, 37 HRs, 121 RBI, 3 SBs, .332 average

Lord, I hate the Bums and it's only gotten worse since Ramirez was loosed upon the urban sprawl. I almost loathe Manny because of his apparent disdain for the parts of baseball I treasure.

He should probably be higher.

The only genuine problem with Man-Ram in the world of make-believe is whether he stays productive for the entire year. As skeptical as I've been, even I have to admit the honeymoon should endure at least through '09.

Since I can't type anything else negative about his fantasy profile...

14. Nate McClouth, Pittsburgh Pirates—113 runs, 26 HRs, 94 RBI, 23 SBs, .276 average

McClouth is slipping down draft boards so you probably don't have to take him this high, but keep an eye on him because early reports are he wants to run more in '09.

At 27, he should be entering his power prime so those taters are for real. Some are worried by his decline after a hot 60 or so games to open the year.

Man up, people—it wasn't that sharp and the speed alone should keep his value in this neighborhood as long as his production doesn't totally regress.

15. Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers—112 runs, 22 HRs, 66 RBI, 12 SBs, .280 average

Here's another guy in his prime (28) who's hitting in a potent lineup and has the potential to put up first tier numbers. If Curtis can pump up that RBI total or the thefts, he'll join the crowded a-list.

But that's been the Granderson Party line for the last couple years. Of course, he did cut his Ks way down in 2008 so this might be the year it all comes together for him.

Until I can eliminate all the conditions/qualifiers from his analysis, he stays here.

16. Alex Rios, Toronto Blue Jays—91 runs, 15 HRs, 79 RBI, 32 SBs, .291 average

Yet another phenom on paper who has yet to package it all in one season. So far, it's been either power or speed while the rest stays pretty consistent. If Rios can re-establish his 24-homer clout from 2007 while keeping his 32-swipe speed from 2008, we've really got something.

If not, well Alex is still a damn fine outfielder so he might be worth overpaying a bit for the upside even if it never comes.

On the other hand, there's a blackening cloud of pessimism forming over the Blue Jays' right fielder so you could also gamble on him sliding down the draft board.

Therein lies the fun of selecting outfielders.

17. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers—93 runs, 18 HRs, 76 RBI, 35 SBs, .290 average

Did I mention I abhor the Dodgers? It takes true resolve to fight back the edges of nausea and include a second Bum in the top 20 at such a stacked position, but the LA youngster must crash the party.

Kemp looks like an arrogant, self-entitled punk and one glimpse of this tank flying around the yard gives you a good idea why. Not that I agree or enjoy it, but he's already shown the ability to excel in all facets of the game—defense included.

There are still gaps in his game, but he's 24 and he's got Manny for a whole year. Damn it.

18. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners—103 runs, 6 HRs, 42 RBI, 43 SBs, .310 average

If you plan on drafting a lot of power elsewhere, then Ichiro is a perfect player to have. Perfect.

Leg issues slowed the Japanese superstar in '08 and he still posted his customary plus numbers in runs, steals, and average. Suzuki will be back in right field and most experts expect the reduced defensive workload to pay health dividends that should convert to offensive ones as well.

Ichiro will not give you much in the homer or RBI department—you draft him because he's almost guaranteed to post 110+ runs, 35-45 swipes, and an average well over .300.

19. Vladimir Guerrero, Anaheim Angels—85 runs, 27 HRs, 91 RBI, 5 SBs, .303 average

Vlady-doddy is 34 and has started showing wear at the seams. Shoulder issues slowed him in 2007 and knee problems that required offseason surgery took him down a peg last year. I don't like the sound of any of that.

In 2008, Guerrer0 dropped 20 points off his hampered average from '07 and his OPS may have foreshadowed the stock market free-fall—it hit depths not seen since 1997 (sub-.900).

Barring a significant rebound, this could be Vlad's last year in the upper echelons.

20. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers—76 runs, 20 HRs, 91 RBI, 23 SBs, .268 average

Hart is 27 years old, 6'6", and 230 pounds. Those 23 bags would be the second consecutive year he's stolen as many. Ever wonder how some individuals apparently get the biological gifts meant for several?

Corey's one of those lucky few—he got size and speed meant for different people.

His average dipped 30 points in 2008 in his second full campaign and his '08 number might be the more reasonable expectation. Fortunately, so is a modest increase in his power numbers as this gigantaur enters his power prime.

And it seems you can count on 20+ exhibition of thievery.

21. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies—102 runs, 14 HRs, 58 RBI, 36 SBs, .293 average

The Phillies' spark plug is really a version of Ichiro that gives you more power with a little less speed. That's not to say the Flyin' Hawaiian is actually slower than Ichiro, it's just not a huge part of Philadelphia's approach so Victorino doesn't put it on display as frequently.

The double-digit pop is for real, though, so you can sacrifice 10-15 swipes and 20-30 points off the average.

22. Raul Ibanez, Philadelphia Phillies—85 runs, 23 HRs, 110 RBI, 2 SBs, .293 average

OK, I reached for Ibanez. But there's method to the apparent madness—Safeco Field is an offensive graveyard compared to Citizen's Bank Park. It's much bigger by comparison and the 2008 Seattle Mariner lineup was a declawed, blind kitten compared to the Phils' 2009 version.

Raul put up pretty stellar numbers last season and now finds himself in a much livelier park surrounded by Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth.

He's coming off the board MUCH later than this (36th OF taken in the average Yahoo draft) so no need to actually pull the trigger here, but I like Ibanez as a potential sleeper.

23. Magglio Ordonez, Detroit Tigers—72 runs, 21 HRs, 103 RBI, 1 SB, .317 average

Magglio gets the last nod purely out of respect for a superb career. At 35, he's showing signs of serious decline so I don't expect the numbers to get better in 2009. I expect them to get worse.

But an aging superstar can always shake off the cobwebs to remind people, one last time, of what he once was. That keeps Ordonez from the nether-regions for one more year.

THIRD TIER (you're basically only getting stats on these guys so you can see how little difference there is between tiers)

24. Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox—96 runs, 34 HRs, 96 RBI, 3 SBs, .292 average

Hurt by Father Time.

25. Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox—98 runs, 9 HRs, 47 RBI, 50 SBs, .280 average

Hurt by lack of a proven track record.

26. Ryan Ludwick, St. Louis Cardinals—104 runs, 37 HRs, 113 RBI, 4 SBs, .299 average

Same as Ellsbury.

27. Bobby Abreu, Anaheim Angels—100 runs, 20 HRs, 100 RBI, 22 SBs, .296 average

Hurt by age and his exit off the New York Yankee juggernaut.

28. Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays—63 runs, 20 HRs, 78 RBI, 4 SBs, .300 average

Hurt by injuries.

29. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox—65 runs, 21 HRs, 77 RBI, 13 SBs, .290 average

Hurt by lack of proven track record.

30. Hunter Pence, Houston Astros—78 runs, 25 HRs, 83 RBI, 11 SBs, .269 average

Hurt by sophomore slump.

31. Adam Dunn, Washington Nationals—79 runs, 40 HRs, 100 RBI, 2 SBs, .236 average

Hurt by brutal average.

32. Johnny Damon, New York Yankees—95 runs, 17 HRs, 71 RBI, 29 SBs, .303 average

Hurt by Father Time and my unreasonable skepticism in light of his resume.

33. Xavier Nady, New York Yankees—76 runs, 25 HRs, 97 RBI, 2 SBs, .305 average

Hurt by post-trade time in the cooler (not jail—his numbers tailed off).

34. Mark DeRosa, Cleveland Indians—103 runs, 21 HRs, 87 RBI, 6 SBs, .285 average

Hurt by the trade from the Chicago Cubs' friendier confines and more potent lineup.

35. Jayson Werth, Philadelphia Phillies—73 runs, 24 HRs, 67 RBI, 20 SBs, .273 average

Hurt by lack of proven track record.

36. Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds—63 runs, 21 HRs, 52 RBI, 4 SBs, .254 average

Same as Werth.

37. Torii Hunter, Anaheim Angels—85 runs, 21 HRs, 78 RBI, 19 SBs, .278 average

Hurt by Father Time and his style of admirably reckless play.

38. Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks—52 runs, 15 HRs, 42 RBI, 1 SB, .250 average

Hurt by the diapers he must still wear (reference to his 21 years not an attitude problem).

39. Nelson Crux, Texas Rangers—19 runs, 7 HRs, 26 RBI, 3 SBs, .330 average

Hurt by a history of failing to translate minor league dominance to MLB success.

40. Lastings Milledge, Washington Nationals—65 runs, 14 HRs, 61 RBI, 24 SBs, .268 average

Where he belongs.

41. Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks—85 runs, 22 HRs, 85 RBI, 14 SBs, .248 average

Hurt by being Adam Dunn with more speed and less power.

42. Elijah Dukes, Washington Nationals—48 runs, 13 HRs, 44 RBI, 13 SBs, .264 average

Helped by incredible physical tools and a glimpse of a breakthrough last year.

You can see that almost all of these guys—No. 1 through No. 42—offer great ability in either the speed or power department and that means either a lot of bombs and RBI or swipes and runs scored.

If they're not outstanding in one facet, they offer a great mix of both.

The only number that gets noticeably worse as you move down the line is the batting average, which is arguably the least reliable metric anyway. Significant swings are comparably normal and that means drafting based on average is typically an unwise strategy (the Ichiros of the MLB world notwithstanding).

Yet another reason to focus on the other areas and let the cadence of your particular draft dictate your outfield needs.

Next up...the pitchers.

Through the Wardrobe—A Fantasty Look at the Shortstops

2009-03-23T20:13:00.000-07:00

Whoops, I guess this is the danger of writing for public consumption—you run the risk of looking like an utter jackass. Even when you think you're taking the necessary precautions, every now and then, risk yanks your card.

Today is apparently 'every now and then.'

I've been making a rather large fuss over how thin I think the third base position is heading into the 2009 fantasy baseball season. Thankfully, I had the good sense to modify my stance to top heavy rather than thin otherwise I'd be twice the fool. However, the fact remains I thought third base would be the biggest problem area in the new season.

What I neglected to do was take a gander at all the positions.

Said gander would've revealed the real problem spot in the infield can be found in the hole between second and third. On a lot of teams—fantasy and true blue—"hole" is a literal term...

THE SHORTSTOPS

Okay, having taken care of the dirty work and served myself a generous portion of my own size 12 Adidas, let's recompose ourselves. Although I have badly overestimated the depth at short, it still doesn't really change my overall draft strategy—I'm still most concerned about second base and the hot corner.

Ironically, the incredible paucity of top tier talent at shortstop makes drafting there relatively simply.

If you have a top pick, use it on one of the trio of elite shortstops. Otherwise, sit on the spot and try to grab a bargain later on in the draft. There truly are only three locks at the position so, unless you can grab one of those three, you'll be in largely the same boat as the majority of your league.

Granted, the second tier captains of the infield stand a far better chance of being able to compete on a weekly basis with the triumvirate at the top. However, they all have glaring weaknesses that really should've bumped them down a notch.

That's right—I'm saying there might not even be a true second tier of Major League Baseball shortstops. See what you think:

FIRST TIER

1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins—126 runs, 33 HRs, 67 RBI, 35 SBs, .301 average

Albert Pujols and David Wright—those are the only two stallions I'd consider taking of Ramirez having reassessed the infield depth (i.e. take Miguel Cabrera off the board). Considering Boston's first choice at short in 2009 was Jed Lowrie, can you imagine if they'd kept this guy?

Josh Beckett's working out and offense is never gonna be a team like the Red Sox' problem, but a 25-year-old shortstop with slick leather who contributes in every facet on offense doesn't exactly come around every year. Or every 10 years.

Take another look at those numbers and then mix in the next couple sentences. A sore shoulder slowed Hanley in '08 and he was leading off for the Fish. The guy basically kept the Marlins in the middle of the pack as far as run production.

With Cameron Maybin in camp and hitting decently well so far, there's a good chance Maybin leads of and shifts Hanley to the three hole. That would probably take a bit out of his runs scored, but you'd see a far more dramatic inflation of his RBI total.

His theft total did drop from 50+ to 35, but he's still young and his speed is truly scary. Figure 35 is the floor.

2. Jose Reyes, New York Mets—113 runs, 16 HRs, 68 RBI, 56 SBs, .297 average

Whoo doggy, the National League East should be called San Pedro De Macoris.

Reyes is another phenomenal talent at the position with a proven track record at the tender age of 25 (26 in June). He lacks the natural power of Hanley Ramirez, but I said Ramirez' speed is scary—well Jose's speed is inhuman.

The guy can pick 'em up and put 'em down. Flat out. That eye-popping number in the swipes category actually represents a decline of 22 steals from 2007. So, yeah, 65-70 SBs isn't unrealistic from Reyes.

Of course, even 50+ may be missing the mark if he does drop down (a la Ramirez) to the three spot. I think I'd probably put David Wright there since the No. 3 hitter is usually the team's best one, but a sane person can't really argue with Reyes.

And that would mean Jose Reyes would be hitting (presumably) directly in front of Mr. Wright. Hello Mr. Fastball—an increased daily intake of the straighties could be exactly what Jose needs to push that homer total closer to 25 or even 30. The drop in order should also do wonders for his RBI total in the loaded Met lineup.

Even if it's Carlos Beltran (which would be really odd since it would put Wright second or fifth), that's still some nice protection.

3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies—76 runs, 11 HRs, 59 RBI, 47 SBs, .277 average

We're about to see that precipitous drop and, coincidentally, this is the last NL East SS on the list.

Rollins was the 2007 NL Most Valuable Player, but he's looking up at two guys from his own division. That's messed up and the only way I can spin the situation.

J-Roll just has the misfortune of playing in a division with the three best shorts in the game, being the oldest of the trio (at 30), and coming off a season that went a bit off-track following an April ankle injury never to really rediscover the rails.

For the 2009 season, I see that as good news.

Jimmy's a bad man—he did not forget how to hit so you can expect a rebound to his '07 glory. Probably not quite that high, but plan on substantially more power as well as the counting stats that go with it. His speed and average should hover right in the '08 levels with possibly a modest step forward in average.

I'm expecting a big year from Ryan Howard and Chase Utley as well so Rollins would probably see a bump in numbers even if his own performance didn't change from last year.

SECOND TIER

4. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox—65 runs, 21 HRs, 77 RBI, 13 SBs, .290 average

Weeee! Did you feel that in your stomach? If you did, what you felt was going from three top 10 fantasy producers to...Alexei Ramirez.

I'm not trying to slam Alexei—in honesty, that sort of production in his first 480 Major League at-bats makes me think he could be joining the Big Three before 2010. But contemplate for a second how reliable and how insanely productive Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins are.

While Alexei Ramirez may end up being every bit as productive, he's got ONE SEASON in the bank.

We're dropping from three of the most proven, high-end commodities in the fantasy game to some johnny with less than a full year's experience. Anyway, I covered Alexei more in-depth with the second basemen.

5. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks—91 runs, 21 HRs, 67 RBI, 3 SBs, .291 average

Again, another talented youngster with a ton of potential. At 26, the younger Drew is a safe wager to build on a very impressive 2008 campaign. Of course, at 26, there's a chance he could regress substantially.

Drew exploded in '08—he raised his batting average almost 60 points and almost doubled his home run output—so there's no guarantee he's cleared the hurdle and his arrival is permanent.

Like Alexei Ramirez, he could eventually be a top tier SS, but he doesn't have the speed of the other guys (or at least he doesn't show it) so he seems destined to have an annual view of their spikes.

And he ain't even close yet.

6. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies—48 runs, 8 HRs, 46 RBI, 1 SB, .263 average

Forget the 2008 numbers—he missed basically the entire year with a torn quad and torn up hand. Tulo gets the benefit of the doubt and the No. 6 spot because of his 2007 seasons and the way he finished '08.

When he finally did get on the field to stay, Troy began to find that power stroke that had so many fantasy owners reluctant to give up on him. At only 24, this is another shortstop who could be elite...eventually.

But, like the others, he isn't there yet and, considering the talent at the top, it's a stretch to call Tulowitzki a level below guys like Hanley, Reyes, and Rollins.

Furthermore, like all the Rockies, the loss of Matt Holliday could do substantial damage to Troy's numbers.

7. J.J. Hardy, Milwaukee Brewers—78 runs, 24 HRs, 74 RBI, 2 SBs, .283 average

Those look like solid second tier numbers next to the triple play atop the positional rankings, right? So what am I getting so excited about? After all Hardy is only 26 (27 in August) so there's plenty of room for him to grow as well.

That's all true and, actually, I was surprised to see his average that high. But J.J. is way too streaky for my tastes. He's one of those guys who seems like Albert Pujols for a couple weeks and then turns into Randy Johnson except without the pitching arsenal.

When a guy spends large runs of the MLB season hitting like my younger sister, I have a hard time endorsing him here.

But 24 dingers from your middle infielder and an average making eyes at .300 demands it.

8. Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians—104 runs, 23 HRs, 89 RBI, 3 SBs, .276 average

Ladies and gentlemen, meet your third highest ranked shortstop from 2008. Peralta actually outperformed Jimmy Rollins, finishing 76th to Rollins' 88th.

Twelve spots—that's what Jhonny's best year as a pro was worth compared to an obviously down year for Rollins. You want insult to injury? Peralta's 27 in May, finished 30+ spots ahead of Derek Jeter, and Jeter's off the board (on average) 20 spots before him in most Yahoo drafts.

I'm not gonna go that far, but I'm still not convinced this is the norm for Peralta.

It's basically his third such season in his last four, but 2006 was a serious stinker. Too much of one to ignore completely—even after two very healthy campaigns.

With that nagging at the back of my mind and the odds favoring a break-out season from the youth above, I can't jump Jhonny any higher.

THIRD TIER

9. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers—34 runs, 5 HRs, 16 RBI, 8 SBs, .357 average

Furcal is going (on average) with the 57th pick in Yahoo drafts. Most fans know he only had 143 ABs, don't they? He's not gonna hit .357 for a full year—hombre's got a single .300 season in his whole seven-year career.

And he's not gonna see a full year. Furcal is papier-mache—he'll give you good average, power, and speed while he's on the field. Fortunately, that hasn't been too often since he came over to the Bums.

10. Mike Aviles, Kansas City Royals—68 runs, 10 HRs, 51 RBI, 8 SBs, .325 average

In case you haven't picked up on the subtle signs, I prefer youth and potential to superstars on the fade. That get Aviles over the more trusted (and overrated) names below.

I covered him a bit under the second basemen, but he's 28 and only saw 410 ABs in '08 (his first year in the Bigs). Figure a full year with a hefty reservoir of experience/confidence should allow Aviles to replicate those numbers—I'd guess with a bit more power and a little less average.

11. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees—88 runs, 11 HRs, 69 RBI, 11 SBs, .300 average

Yankee fans, start your engines. Seriously though, how can you take Jeter over anyone previously mentioned? Most of them have outperformed the pinstriped captain and they're all younger. Most of 'em are a lot younger than Derek, who will be 35 in June.

I've always loved the guy. Derek Jeter is definitely one of my favorite non-San Francisco Giants of my lifetime—he's always played the game the right way and carried himself with class off the field.

But nobody stays young and beautiful forever. Not even Jeter.

12. Michael Young, Texas Rangers—102 runs, 12 HRs, 82 RBI, 10 SBs, .284 average

It's safe to say that, at 32, Young is deteriorating. His average dipped below .300 for the first time since 2002 and for the first time ever when registering over 600 ABs.

The runs will probably stay up there because of the Rangers' potency, but expect the rest to continue to erode. If Young struggles with the position change to third base, he might carry it with him into the batter's box and that would probably hasten his demise.

13. Miguel Tejada, Houston Astros—92 runs, 13 HRs, 66 RBI, 7 SBs, .283 average

Tejada will be 35 in May, his name popped up in the performance-enhancing drug witch hunt, and he's been in steady (and kinda rapid) decline. These are all signs that indicate the wheels are about to come off Tejada's wobbling wagon.

It might not happen in '09, but why bet against Mother Nature?

Fliers—Yunel Escobar (Atlanta Braves), Jerry Hairston Jr. (Cincinnati Reds), Khalil Greene (St. Louis Cardinals), Ryan Theriot (Chicago Cubs), Clint Barmes (Rockies), Orlando Cabrera (Oakland Athletics)

I could essentially list every single shortstop in the league under fliers, so I just picked some the sexiest ones. The truth is, most of the guys outside the 13 mentioned in some detail have ownership levels fluctuating between 20 and 60 percent.

When 40 percent of Yahoo leagues don't even consider a player worthy of ownership, suffice it to say the potential for contribution isn't great.

Still, a guy like Escobar had a very promising start to his young career and then failed to deliver on the promise when handed the starting gig in '08. At 26, there's a ray of hope.

Greene put up terrible numbers for the San Diego Padres in '08, but he goes to a real professional lineup in '09 so he gets a shout-out.

Theriot plays in a live yard with a potent lineup and Barmes plays in a livelier yard with a less potent lineup. Both give you additional flexibility up the middle.

After that, throw a dart.

And it probably won't matter because, unless you can get one of the three royals, you're gonna be swinging a limp noodle like the rest of your league.

Next up...the outfielders.

Through the Wardrobe—A Fantasty Look at the Third Basemen

2009-03-23T18:39:00.000-07:00

I've been saying all along that third base is incredibly thin heading into the 2009 fantasy season. Upon closer inspection, maybe thin isn't exactly the right description. Extremely top heavy would be a better choice because there is a decent amount of depth at the very top.

In fairness, some of them won't actually play the hot corner. However, they're legit for fantasy purposes...

THE THIRD BASEMEN

Again, I've been hinting all along that third base is the most important position as far as I'm concerned. When you see the roster of players, you'll understand why—it's got six or seven guys who are absolute monsters and perform like clockwork.

The rest are a bunch of guys who could tank your entire team depending on where you draft them. It's not a knock on their talent because the talent is thick top to bottom. The issue is that, outside the top couple of tiers, there are red flags popping up left and right.

And they're enormous.

But mine is obviously not the only way to skin the third base cat. If you're a gambler, then this is your position because guys are going all over the place. Melvin Mora was a top 10 third baseman in 2008 and, on average, he's being taken with the 238th pick in Yahoo drafts. Meanwhile, Garret Atkins is going ahead of Chipper Jones.

And Alex Rodriguez has belly-flopped into the third round of most drafts. Holy lord:

FIRST TIER

1. David Wright, New York Mets—115 runs, 33 HRs, 124 RBI, 15 SBs, .302 average

This is another guy I'd consider taking with the top draft pick overall.

Wright is a true five category contributor because he has plus everything—plate discipline, power, and speed. He's not gonna dominate the swipes column like he once did because he's become too important to the Mets to imperil regularly on the basepaths, but he'll contribute there on a regular basis while doing the same with his average.

The real bonanza comes in a one-two of power and consistency.

Wright will get you 30+ bombs, 100+ runs, and 100+ RBI every year he sees 150 games. Write that in ink—better yet, etch it in stone. Considering my man is only 26 and is the definition of old school, David's usually a good bet to see 160 games a year if history is to be trusted—it's gonna take something serious to keep him off the diamond.

He's a walking defensive gem, he seems to thrive under the microscope in the Big Apple, he hits in a formidable lineup, he's gotten better each year so far, and he's still in the beginning stages of that period in a player's career where experience/maturity catches up with his talent (and he enters another tier of excellence).

I don't see a downside.

2. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers—85 runs, 37 HRs, 127 RBI, 1 SB, .292 average

This is the second time we've seen Cabrera in the second spot for a position. Nipping at the heels of Albert Pujols and David Wright should tell you all you need to know.

You can see more effusive praise of Miguel with the first basemen, but I'll add he's essentially David Wright sans the defensive prowess (irrelevant), speed (very relevant), and probably with some extra power.

It would take quite a bit of a jump in the other stats to make up for the edge Wright has in stolen bases, but Cabrera's got the talent to hop over Gotham's favorite son.

3. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees—104 runs, 35 HRs, 103 RBI, 18 SBs, .302 average

Look, I don't like the guy and you probably don't like him—we all have very good reason.

But A-Rod in the third round? Jesus, what are these people blazing and where can I get my hands on it?

Yes, he's rehabbing from hip surgery. Yes, that is cause for concern. Yes, he's struggled to perform under the most intense spotlight in Major League Baseball (playoffs in New York). Yes, his entire regular season could closely approximate that pressure due to the performance-enhancing drug fallout.

The injury doesn't worry me too much. First, who's to say it was really that serious anyway. I say there's a decent chance it was something he could've played with, but decided to get fixed up as a convenient way to duck out of the spotlight for a bit.

Second, those 2008 numbers came in 138 games. If the need for surgery wasn't as urgent as we think and he's already rehabbing, Rodriguez should be totally healthy for at least that many in 2009.

As for the scrutiny, if a veritable lock for top 10 fantasy production is available in the second round, I'll take my chances. Even on a douche bag like A-Rod.

4. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays—67 runs, 27 HRs, 85 RBI, 7 SBs, .272 average

Um...those are the numbers from the first 448 at-bats of Longoria's Big League career and they came when the kid was 22. He also suffered a fractured wrist in the middle. Chew on that for a bit.

Longo's now 23 and up with the big club for the entirety. Having shown no ill-effects of the break after he came back last year, there's no reason to think it will suddenly become a problem now. Furthermore, it wasn't a muscle injury so there's no indication the guy is a danger to go down frequently.

The news that B.J. Upton will miss some time after Opening Day hurts a bit, but Longoria should still see some extra statistical opportunities with the entire Rays' roster brimming with World Series confidence.

The only reason he has to look up at A-Rod is because he's so damn young. At this point, he could regress for two years, explode at 25 and still become a player the likes of which we've never seen—he has that much time and potential.

But I like potential. I think this kid is (gasp) an eventual upgrade over David Wright. Probably not in 2009, but sooner rather than later.

5. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox—91 runs, 29 HRs, 115 RBI, 3 SBs, .312 average

This is another repeat offender, having already popped up with Miguel Cabrera with the first sackers. Again, check there for more info on Youk.

But I will say he makes the first tier at the hot corner despite the injury and despite being a second tier first baseman because the high-end talent is better at first. It's great at third as well, but there's more of it at first so Youkilis gets the promotion.

I'll also point out the injury is probably a non-issue at this point. Achilles' tendinitis isn't gonna go away over the course of 162 games, but his game isn't really predicated on speed and the bite should hurt his swing too much.

SECOND TIER

6. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs—97 runs, 27 HRs, 111 RBI, 2 SBs, .289 average

Can you feel us picking up speed? You should because we're getting close to the precipitous drop and the slope's getting steeper.

For whatever reason, I had Ram-Ram last year and wasn't impressed. I don't know what to make of that because his numbers were basically consistent with what I should've expected—they just never seemed to help very much.

Even so, those are good enough to get this big dawg into the first tier except he'll turn 31 in June. Aramis is still in his prime, but he's got his boarding pass and he's in line for departure.

That bumps him into the lead-off spot of the second tier because, while his numbers might mimic some of those above, I don't expect them to get better. Frankly, more of the same would be A-OK.

7. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves—82 runs, 22 HRs, 75 RBI, 4 SBs, .364 average

Larry Wayne is an odd case—he'll be 37 in April, but he seems to be aging like Barry Bonds.

His normalized production (per at-bat) is off the charts considering those numbers were amassed in only 128 games/439 ABs. Not only that, it's trending better as Chipper piles on the years.

However, Jones hasn't played anything close to a full slate of games since 2003—he's almost certain to miss 30+ games again in 2009. I'd say utterly certain since he's already got an oblique problem going in Spring Training. Those do tend to nag.

The fates are against him hitting .364 again, but Chipper will always hit for high average so something around .320 seems reasonable. With an improved lineup and the possibility of a large seasons from certain teammates (Kelly Johnson, Jeff Francoeur, Yunel Escobar), Jones shouldn't have too much trouble replicating the rest of his '08 tally.

8. Aubrey Huff, Baltimore Orioles—96 runs, 32 HRs, 108 RBI, 4 SBs, .304 average

Well, there was the first big drop.

In truth, Huff probably should be the start of the third tier for most of the reasons mentioned in the first base column. Yep, Aubrey's our third crossover from that position and the weakest of the bunch so I'll be even briefer.

I'll simply add that Huff apparently associates his return to former glory with a mechanical change in his swing. If that's true, maybe Huff does belong here.

9. Chris Davis, Texas Rangers—51 runs, 17 HRs, 55 RBI, 1 SB, .285 average

The young Ranger marks the fourth crossover from first. He jumps a tier when viewed in the third base context because, as mentioned, it's a weaker context.

Therefore, the extrapolation required to compare Davis against his contemporaries doesn't hurt him. He registered those totals in 295 ABs so doubling them gets you in the neighborhood of a full year's production.

Obviously, that assumes he can maintain his productivity for twice as long. That's no small feat in the Texas heat, but it's not impossible or even far-fetched for a talented kid like Davis.

If he can slap together 100+/30+/100+ with a .280 average and keep his hot corner eligibility (the least likely)? At the age of 23? You'd have quite the pair with Davis and Longoria.

THIRD TIER

10. Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies—86 runs, 21 HRs, 99 RBI, 1 SB, .286 average

Now we're in free-fall so it seems appropriate to start with Atkins. Yet another guy who can also slot in at first, but the least exciting of the bunch because his numbers have been in steady decline.

At 29, there doesn't seem to be much reason to think Atkins will reverse the trend suddenly. Worse, his struggles with right-handed pitching are getting more pronounced, his road splits have always suggested a Coors hitter, Matt Holliday is a memory, and a spring hip injury has become a spring hip/groin injury.

Run away and do it fast.

11. Melvin Mora, Baltimore Orioles—77 runs, 23 HRs, 104 RBI, 3 SBs, .285 average

As I mentioned, Mora was a top 100 fantasy producer last year and he's being taken in the very late rounds (early 20s). That seems weird to me because, while his numbers spiked a bit in '08, it's not like they erupted through the roof.

In fact, Mora's '08 campaign is almost identical to those of '04 and '05. In the interest of full disclosure, there was a modest dip in '06 and '07, but I don't see why that's dropping Melvin so low.

He's got a hamstring issue at the moment, but it doesn't sound serious and Baltimore's lineup may surprise some people. He looks like a good bargain to me if you are in trouble at third.

12. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals—51 runs, 14 HRs, 51 RBI, 1 SB, .283 average

Zimmerman is 24 and coming of a season during which he lost about 60 games to injury. Big things were expected from the Nats' corner infielder after he whomped 44 taters in his first two full MLB seasons, but a shoulder tear threw a wrench in the works.

Of course, Ryan looked just dandy after coming back from the ding, but there are still some big question marks on this youngster. He might pick up where he left off or he could be starting from scratch.

13. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals—72 runs, 16 HRs, 59 RBI, 9 SBs, .260 average

We're in a patch where sheer potential has arrested the rate of descent a bit. The problem, as most fans know, with Gordon is that the 25-year-old has taunted MLB with his raw ability for several years now.

Some of the bloom has come off the rose so expectations/attention have been dialed back a bit. Perhaps this is the year the dude snaps it together with a click and becomes the fury his combination of speed and power promises.

14. Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks—87 runs, 28 HRs, 97 RBI, 11 SBs, .239 average

Reynolds will be 26 in August so there's still hope he may cut back on his whiff rate, but the glimmer dies quickly because there's no indication of any effort to that end. In other words, the average is probably about where it will end most years.

But we're in the third tier of players and Mark offers power and increasing speed (he's running in Spring Training as well) at a discounted rate. Plus, there is still a lot of upside left to realize. You could do much worse if you've waited this long to fill the hot grab a guy like Reynolds.

15. Jorge Cantu, Florida Marlins—92 runs, 29 HRs, 95 RBI, 6 SBs, .277 average

I have no idea what to make of these last two guys.

Cantu is only 27 and put up an almost identical season in 2005. On the other hand, '06 and '07 were brutal—if you draft based on '08 and get a year like '06/'07, you're in deep water with cement shoes.

And yet, if Jorge can keep raking to that '08 diddy, his numbers should be even better due to a quietly (and possibly) vicious lineup in Florida.

17. Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds—75 runs, 26 HRs, 68 RBI, 1 SB, .251 average

Another total mystery to me. He's 26 and has talent spilling from his ears, but he's regressed as much as progressed in recent years. First, it was a bump in average with a drop in power and increase in Ks.

Last year, it was a bump in power, but a decrease in average and virtually no thefts along with another increase in fans. As part of a promising young lineup, 2009 could see Edwin become the top 10 fantasy third baseman scouts predicted.

Or he could take another step forward while taking two back. Sounds like third tier to me.

Fliers—Mike Lowell (Red Sox), Mark DeRosa (Cleveland Indians), Russell Martin (Los Angeles Dodgers), Adrian Beltre (Seattle Mariners), Troy Glaus (St. Louis Cardinals), Ty Wigginton (Orioles), Pablo Sandoval (San Francisco Giants), Matt Gamel (Milwaukee Brewers)

Ugh, those fliers don't even rate much mention.

Lowell is probably the best bet because he works in one of the best offenses in baseball. But he's 35, has a history of health issues, and is coming off major offseason surgery. Yikes.

DeRosa's versatile, but you better have a lot of power elsewhere if he's manning the hot corner. Beltre's in a contract year so there's that. Martin's a catcher with third base eligibility—you want it the other way around (like Sandoval, but he's unproven).

Gamel is the big name in the Brewer system, but few rookies arrive a la Ryan Braun and Evan Longoria.

Like I said, your options get unappealing early and quickly at the hot corner. Plan accordingly.

Next up...the shortstops.

Through the Wardrobe—A Fantasty Look at the Second Basemen

2009-03-23T13:55:00.000-07:00

The general consensus around fantasy circles is that second base is a deep position. To a degree, I understand the sentiment—the top tiers of players is crowded with guys who stuff the stat sheet to the gills. However, when you look at the overall draftable players, the position is almost as thin as the catchers...

THE SECOND BASEMEN

For me, this position is a probably the second most important behind third base. I say that because, while there are a lot of names in those top tiers, the drop off afterward is significant. The combination makes the keystone an important place to have elite talent.

If you wait until later rounds to grab a guy who looks nice because he hits .300, you're gonna be running through a cheese grater for a good deal of the season because of that depth of high-end talent. Most of the league will have a guy filling the second base slot capable of that average as well as solid peripherals.

However, it's also a position that offers some flexibility if you take the rotisserie approach. Since a guy like Placido Polanco or Orlando Hudson falls so far, second base is a nice spot to pair with a corner outfielder or first baseman (i.e. a position where you can get power late while sacrificing average).

If you take Polanco and melt his numbers with, say, Adam Dunns, you've got yourself a damn fine composite player. Granted, it took two roster spots to make him.

With that in mind, here are the second basemen:

FIRST TIER 1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies—113 runs, 33 HRs, 104 RBI, 14 SBs, .292 average

Chase is dropping into the second round of a lot of Yahoo drafts. That's a mistake and a pretty big one.

It's understandable because offseason hip surgery is no laughing matter; in fact, it sounds like something for senior citizens so it should give you reason for pause when a 30-year-old pro athlete goes under the knife for it.

Trust me, Utley's gonna be 100 percent and wheels up on Opening Day.

And there's the flip side to that offseason surgery—it means his 2008 numbers were collected under the duress of injury serious enough to require said knife-undergoing.

If you figure on a healthy season and a modest boost from the improved consistency of Raul Ibanez plus a steadier year from Jimmy Rollins, I'm betting you'll see similar power numbers with some extra points on the average and a nice flurry of additional peripherals.

That would put Utley right back in the top 10 fantasy players where he belongs.

2. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers—102 runs, 18 HRs, 71 RBI, 26 SBs, .319 average

Kinsler is the guy who's getting the love that's been shed from the Utley bandwagon. He's been the first second baseman off the board in most drafts. And for good reason.

At only 26 (27 in June), he is Utley's heir-apparent in more ways than just age. Although he probably lacks the raw power of Chase, he plays in a livelier home yard (Ballpark at Arlington) and in a more potent lineup. Considering the Phils' lineup is not exactly weak, that's saying something.

But it's true with the likes of Josh Hamilton, Chris Davis, Michael Young, Nelson Cruz, possibly Hank Blalock, and the potential at catcher.

Then there's the matter of speed—Kinsler's got it for days and is fond of flashing it. That style of play may be what's kept him from completing a full slate of games so far in his young career or it could just be a freak injury thing.

Either way, this is a talent entering his prime with speed to mitigate any prolonged slump. There's a good chance his power numbers will jump this season as he matures into the window where the supremely gifted make leaps forward in performance.

3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox—118 runs, 17 HRs, 83 RBI, 20 SBs, .326 average

Pedroia, turning 26 in August, is even younger than Kinsler. Entering his third full season as a Sox' regular, he's coming off a jump in numbers from 2007 to 2008 that netted him the American League MVP.

The only reason he doesn't rate higher is because he's a dwarf.

If he adds any more power numbers to the astounding tallies he put up last year, I'm gonna have to rethink my faith in the principles of physics. That the dude hit 17 homers is incredible considering he's probably barely 5'6" and 170 pounds.

Of course, studs like Pedroia have made a lifetime of proving people wrong so take his apparent physical limitations with a grain of salt.

And also consider that the same laws of experience and maturity apply to Dustin as apply to anyone else. Those promise there's improvement to be had—I just don't see where he adds it other than the power numbers.

Then again, 162 games worth of Jason Bay, a healthier David Ortiz, ditto Mike Lowell, and improvement from Jacoby Ellsbury should get him better pitches, more RBI spots, and push him across the plate more.

It's just tough to believe those totals are going higher.

4. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds—80 runs, 21 HRs, 78 RBI, 23 SBs, .261 average

Phillips might be a tad high here except he lost about 100 at-bats to injury at the end of the year. Despite the missed time, he still registered another 20/20 season.

Furthermore, Brandon will be 28 in June and that puts him right on the cusp of his prime. Either he is what he's been for the last several years—a guy who's gonna hit around .280 while being a legit 30 homer threat if he can get 600+ ABs and a reliable 20/20 guy when he sees 500+.

Or he squeezes that last bit out of his potential and throws up a 30/30/.300 grand prize.

Considering the developing players around him (Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Edwin Encarnacion) and the intimate confines of his home digs, I say the grand prize is a decent bet for the Reds' excellent middle infielder.

Even if Phillips puts up a 2009 buffet a la last year's, that'll beat most of his counterparts.

5. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles—107 runs, 9 HRs, 57 RBI, 40 SBs, .296 average

Roberts gets knocked down to No. 5 through no fault of his own—it's simply a matter of age (31) and his lineup (the weakest of the bunch).

Put this consummate table-setter in a more productive offense and his value spikes considerably. That's an important thing to keep in mind because Brian is unsigned after 2009 and probably won't re-up with the Os before the trade deadline i.e. he's gonna be popular in the trade winds and possibly moved to a more potent contender.

Even if he sticks in Baltimore all year, his 2008 numbers are almost exactly what you'll get four or five years. The fact he's playing for a contract might spur him on to even greater heights.

Anyone who saw Roberts homer off Daisuke Matsuzaka in the World Baseball Classic can see he's got considerable power and he's on base all the time. There's more than enough power in that bat to double that tater total. And if you can get 40 swipes, you can probably get 60.

It's just a matter of motivation and the open market can be one hell of a motivator.

SECOND TIER

6. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins—97 runs, 32 HRs, 92 RBI, 5 SBs, .260 average

Uggla's another guy whose fantasy value greatly outpaces his real-world equivalent. This hombre's not gonna give you much in the speed or average departments, and he whiffs at an incredible pace. At 29, the hopes for an improvement in any area are dwindling since he's right at the peak of his prime and the trends seem to indicate quite the opposite.

But those 32 big flies and related peripherals are so gaudy, they almost break down the door to the first tier. Forget that he plays in a pitchers' park for the moment—those numbers are right up there with the best in the bigs at the position (Utley).

And Dangerous Dan, like Roberts, is a superb candidate to be moved by the trade deadline since the money-starved Fish are always looking to cash in on their high-profile talent.

7. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox—65 runs, 21 HRs, 77 RBI, 13 SBs, .290 average

The Cuban Missile worries me a bit because everyone's on his jock—five tool production this, 27-year-old developing quickly that, etc. I never like it when the adoring eyes of a the MLB word fixate on one guy, especially if he's young-ish, since the results rarely seem to be favorable.

Of course, it'd would be unwise to ignore such a gifted athlete for such a paranoid reason. Clearly, the rave reviews are justified—in his first year of Major League Baseball, Alexei splashed that line up in only 480 ABs (at least 100 less than most of his competitors). Tack an additional 100 ABs on and the results will really get your pulse up.

If Ramirez can fight back the attention, expectation, and complacency, the comfort and experience that should accompany the resounding vote of confidence should make Alexei a good candidate to join the elite of the elite.

Lastly, he's eligible in the outfield and at shortstop so he gives you some nice middle infield flexibility.

8. Jose Lopez, Seattle Mariners—80 runs, 17 HRs, 89 RBI, 6 SBs, .297 average

It's funny how some guys sink down draft boards, regardless of performance, just because of the uniform they were. Lopez is a perfect example of being totally underrated because he plays in Seattle.

Senor Lopez finished '08 as the 97th rated fantasy player in Yahoo, his '08 season was remarkably similar to his '06 campaign so it didn't come out of the blue, and he's only 25 years old. Not only that, the Ms have some nice young talents that could make their offense surprisingly below-average this year (instead of God-awful).

Yet he's falling to the 172nd pick in the average draft. That makes Jose Lopez a Super-Saver.

9. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees—70 runs, 14 HRs, 72 RBI, 2 SBs, .271 average

Cano, like every Bomber, gets the benefit of the ultimate fantasy net—the Yankee lineup. Even in a hugely disappointing '08, the Dominican dandy named for Jackie Robinson scratched together a pretty decent year. At a tender 26 (we can trust his age, right?), there's absolutely no reason to believe last year was anything more than a bump in the road to stardom.

After all, his fan total actually went down last year and the pinstriped lineup is even more fearsome this year, especially after the return of the starting third baseman (can't remember his name at the moment). And, remember, his 2008 performance is probably as bad as it's gonna get from Cano.

If that's the bottom and considering how high the ceiling is, Cano is looking like a great bargain in the later rounds.

10. Chone Figgins, Anaheim Angels—72 runs, 1 HR, 22 RBI, 34 SBs, .276 average

Figgins slides in ahead of his Angel teammate because of his speed. Just like Kendrick below him, Chone has struggled with injuries the past two years and that's significantly more troubling since he's 31. Not only that, some of the damage has been done to his legs.

Take away Figgins speed and he becomes an average fantasy player, despite the eligibility at third base as well as second. He simply won't hit for power and, although he has a .330 season in the bank, that came in only 115 games and looks more like an anomaly these days.

Yet, a healthy Chone Figgins will hit around .280, score around 100 runs, and steal more than 40 bases—that makes him a player. You could do a lot worse.

11. Howie Kendrick, Anaheim Angels—43 runs, 3 HRs, 37 RBI, 11 SBs, .306 average

Players like Kendrick mentally break some fantasy owners—he put up those infuriatingly tantalizing stats in only 340 ABs, but he logged two stints on the disabled list for the second consecutive year. Personally, I don't like guys with a history of injuries because one of the surest ways to flounder is to waste picks on DL spots.

That said, Howie will be turning 26 in July so there's plenty left in the tank and all the more reason to believe he can get over the injury bug. Furthermore, it's beyond doubt at this point that my man can rake Major League pitching.

He won't give you much power, but Kendrick will contributed with some swipes and production in two of the three major areas keeps you out of the bottom tiers.

THIRD TIER

11. Mark DeRosa, Cleveland Indians—103 runs, 21 HRs, 87 RBI, 6 SBs, .285 average

DeRosa's eligibility at third and in the OF keeps him above the rest of the third tier despite the expected dip in productivity. Moving from the potent Chicago Cubbies to the less-heralded Tribe is hurting Mark's pre-draft stock as is the extra real estate of Jacobs Field

But I'm already on record as saying I like the Indians and expect big things from the club. Additionally, let's not forget it was a large year in the AL (with Texas) that propelled DeRosa to the fat Chicago contract in the first place.

12. Mike Aviles, Kansas City Royals—68 runs, 10 HRs, 51 RBI, 8 SBs, .325 average

Aviles is a guy to watch because, with a bigger sample size, he would've jumped into the second tier. Those numbers are exceedingly impressive, but he only saw 418 ABs and that's the entirety of his MLB experience.

He's also eligible at SS so he, like Alexei Ramirez, allows for some mixing and matching down the road should the unfortunate happen. If he can maintain those numbers for a full year, this will be his only one spent in the third tier.

13. Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves—86 runs, 12 HRs, 69 RBI, 11 SBs, .287 average

Brave fans take their guys seriously so I expect to get some flak for this, but Johnson just doesn't seem to be progressing like a 27-year-old is expected to. Granted, Johnson only has two full years in the Bigs and that's gotten other players slack.

Furthermore, young players can often take on the feel of the team because of their more fragile egos and Johnson's '08 very similarly mimicked Atlanta's overall season. He remains a guy to watch because he still reeks of ability, but with less optimism in my opinion.

To thoroughly cloud the issue, I'd pick Johnson as the guy most likely to break through behind Aviles (who I like very much).

14. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers—89 runs, 14 HRs, 46 RBI, 19 SBs, .234 average

This could be the dumbest placement by the time '09 is in the books. Weeks has plus ability in all five offensive areas, is only 26, and has spent the better part of four years in the Show. The only problem is a breakout has been expected for the past three years.

None has come yet. But 2009 could very well be the year after a brutal '08 that forced the Brew Crew to grab Ray Durham as insurance. The move seemed to light a spark under Weeks and, if the spark survived until the offseason, Rickie might've finally put in the work necessary to explode.

15. Kazuo Matsui, Houston Astros—58 runs, 6 HRs, 33 RBI, 20 SBs, .293 average

Man, second basemen sure do get nicked up a lot. Matsui saw less than 100 games last year and still managed to post some fine totals, particularly in the thefts and average departments.

But his is a guy who's suffered so many injuries, that missing time in '08 with anal fissures seemed about right for Kaz. And typing the phrase 'anal fissures' is about as close to them as I want to get so I'll pass on the Astros' Matsui.

16. Placido Polanco, Detroit Tigers—90 runs, 8 HRs, 58 RBI, 7 SBs, .307 average

If you plan on using Polanco or a rough equivalent, you better include a guy like Adam Dunn or Mike Jacobs in the works because Placido will give you a .300 average for sure. And, in the Tiger lineup, he's way better than even money to flirt with 100 runs scored.

But that's it. There will be an accidental longball here and there, maybe a swipe when some chucker forgets about him on occasion, and that's it. Draft him for average or not at all.

17. Orlando Hudson, Los Angeles Dodgers—54 runs, 8 HRs, 41 RBI, 4 SBs, .305 average

O-Dog is the poor man's Placido Polanco, which means you should almost never have to draft him as Polanco should be available. Hudson plays in a weaker lineup, a bigger ballpark, and isn't as reliable as the guy above him to hit .300.

Furthermore, he's coming off wrist injury and he doesn't seem interested in running too much anymore. He makes the list by the hair of his chinny-chin-chin. Or one of Manny's dreadlocks.

Fliers—Jerry Hairston Jr. (Reds), Ian Stewart (Colorado Rockies), Aaron Hill (Toronto Blue Jays), Clint Barmes (Rockies), Akinori Iwamura (Tampa Bay Rays), Mark Ellis (Oakland Athletics), Felipe Lopez (Arizona Diamondbacks), Freddie Sanchez (Pittsburgh Pirates)

Again, the fliers are a motley crew of young guys with huge upside and little history or older players who might still be good for one last year of glory.

My favorites on the list are the two Rockies (Steward and Barmes) because they have the obvious advantage of playing in Denver. That mile-high air sure seems to help break a slump.

Aaron Hill and Akinori Iwamura are also intriguing. Hill had one shiny little year in 2007 and spent '08 dinged up so there's a whisper of precedent there. Iwamura just seems like a winner and he's swinging in the middle of a possible juggernaut.

If you're hand is forced outside these fine fellows, you have my condolensces.

Next up...the third basemen.

Through the Wardrobe—A Fantastic Look at the First Basemen

2009-03-22T09:49:00.000-07:00

With the catchers out of the way, I started looking ahead at the rest of the positions from a fantasy perspective and one thing became immediately clear—there is no way in hell I can write as much analysis for every draftable player at each position as I did for the backstops.

None. I'd be writing until Major League Baseball's All-Star break.

Take, for instance, this article's focus—first basemen.

In 2008, 24 of the top 200 fantasy players (according to Yahoo) were either first basemen or will qualify at the spot in 2009. By comparison, only six players rocking the Tools of Ignorance boast the same credentials.

Kelly Shoppach is being taken, on average in Yahoo drafts, with the lowest pick of any catcher I wrote up (240th). If I extended the list out to that pick for the first sackers, it would be three times as long.

I don't want to write that and nobody wants to read it.

Instead, I'll be trying to give equal treatment to each tier from now on and the analysis will get substantially less-detailed after the first couple of tiers. That might sound lazy and, to some degree, it is.

However, it also makes a bit o' sense since tier three players and below are relatively unpredictable. Guys in those levels either were once elite and in decline or they're young and full of potential. Either set could easily be an albatross you're dropping after the first month or become a fantasy stalwart.

There's just no way to tell even with all the metrics and probabilistic analysis in the world, regardless of what some Bill-James-wannabe will tell you. There are just too many intangible variables to consider to make any predictions (that I've come across) more accurate than a 50/50 stab.

So, rather than give you a false sense of security by raving about some flier I'm fond of for some inane reason, I'll give you the quick pertinent facts as I see 'em and move on. Any fantasy player is just as qualified as I am to discover some late round gem.

After all, if you're taking someone with the 240th pick, that's the 20th round or later in most drafts. All bets are off in that twilight.

Having disposed of that little administrative matter, here's the next group...

THE FIRST BASEMEN

Not much needs to be said about the approach to these guys—draft 'em early and draft 'em often.

A lot of fantasy's biggest studs can be found under this heading and, since most leagues have at least one Utility spot in addition to all the standard positions, having a couple of these big sticks is usually a pretty good way to go.

Even if your league foregoes the extra spot, some of the guys have multi-positional eligibility. You can grab a guy like, say, Miguel Cabrera early and use him for his third base flexibilities while still nabbing another high-end first basemen a little bit later.

Thusly, you can use the talent depth at first to compensate for the shallow pool at third base.

One last caveat—first base is a power spot. Don't waste your energy trying to find that perfect guy who's gonna launch 30+ big flies while peppering to the tune of .300. Obviously, if you can lock him in, go for it.

But most fantasy teams will need power from this spot. There are lots of Punch-and-Judy hitters available in the late rounds and even via the wire after the draft. That's not usually true of legit power bats.

So don't worry about Ryan Howard's low batting average—you can grab an average/on-base percentage guy down the road to compensate for it if necessary.

On with it:

FIRST TIER

1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis, Cardinals—100 runs, 37 HRs, 116 RBI, 7 SBs, .357 average

Only seven steals? What a stiff.

In case this is your first fantasy go around, Pujols actually slid down a lot of draft boards in 2008 because of an elbow injury. In other words, those numbers could actually see a jump after offseason surgery to repair some sort of nerve problem.

Not to mention the breakout season had by Ryan Ludwick. Pujols should benefit from a more confident Ludwick as well as another year of experience on Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker, and the possible arrival (finally) of Colby Rasmus.

I don't know if Albert is actually the 29 years of age his profile lists, but he's clearly still in the prime of his career and feeling healthy (despite a Spring Training kick to the head) entering the 2009 campaign.

This hombre is so good, there isn't much fuss made over his last name rhyming with a part of animal anatomy. Considering how juvenile most MLB fans are (myself included), that might be the most profound endorsement of the man yet.

He's your No. 1 pick unless you happen to hate the Cardinals or believe the third base position is even thinner than the general consensus. Albert Pujols really should have a tier all to himself.

2. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers—85 runs, 37 HRs, 127 RBI, 1 SB, .292 average

There are several guys I'd consider taking if I had the first pick and Cabrera's one of 'em.

In Yahoo leagues, Miguel has third base eligibility as well and the hot corner was slim before Alex Rodriguez went down. Combine that with his production from 2008 and it makes him a candidate to be the first name off the board.

But Cabrera's intoxicating for another reason—he'll be 26 in April and '08 was his first year in the American League.

So he's in the window where supremely talented youngsters tend to make substantial leaps in production plus Cabrera's had a full year to get his Junior Circuit legs underneath him and his AL-eye honed.

If nothing else, you should see his average return to its more familiar .320 average. If that inevitability does come to pass, you should also get a complimentary boost in the peripherals.

Especially if Curtis Granderson has the year everyone expected him to have in '08. And Gary Sheffield returns from the dead.

3. Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees—102 runs, 33 HRs, 121 RBI, 2 SBs, .308 average

Those three words following Teixeira's name should terrify you.

His monster year got lost a bit in the shuffle between leagues last year, but good grief. And Tex did that in two lineups that didn't have the juice (on paper) that the Bombers have in 2009—some parts disappointed a bit in '08, but they're good bets to rebound nicely.

If guys like Robinson Cano and Jorge Posada do regain form, look out.

Teixeira will be 29 in April so he should be good for those 2008 numbers at a minimum. Since Mark is clearly one of MLB's most gifted splinters and he's not yet at the (supposed) peak of his career, there's a good chance his 2009 stats will be something new altogether for the Yankee first baseman.

The cherry on the sundae? He's already scorching over .400 in Spring Training.

4. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins—97 runs, 23 HRs, 129 RBI, 0 SBs, .300 average

How is it possible that Morneau will only be 28 in May? I had him in his early 30s.

The other question would be how in the world does he put those stats up in the Twins' lineup? Aside from Joe Mauer, there's almost nothing there.

That actually changes a bit in 2009 with the addition of Joe Crede (assuming he can stay on the field) and another year of experience on some talented newbies (Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, Denard Span, etc.). Still, that lineup isn't gonna make anyone's hair go gray except maybe Ron Gardenhire's.

Of course, Morneau should scare the socks off any opposing pitcher.

The guy is a mashing machine. Last season saw a bit of a drop in his homer total, but he compensated by bloating both his RBI and average. And it gets better.

Morneau had offseason laser eye surgery to improve his vision. It might sound stupid, but one thing Barry Bonds always made a fuss over was how well he could see the ball. If Justin's spotting the ball out of the hurler's hand better, get some new socks.

5. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies—105 runs, 48 HRs, 146 RBI, 1 SB, .251 average

The BIG fella is the lone exception to my general rule of reserving the top tier for guys who contribute in every category except maybe speed or power.

I'm not as enamored of the long-ball as a lot of fans, but 48 homers are 48 homers—I don't care how you slice it...in fantasy. In real-life, two years of 199 strikeouts is a deal-breaker as is the .251 average. All the more so because Howard needed a scalding September just to raise his average to those lofty heights.

But, as I said in the introduction to this series, fantasy value is a much different animal than real value.

So Ryan squeezes his big posterior into the first tier as the preeminent power threat in baseball, who is also a good candidate for a bounce-back year in average due to his 29 years and the ridiculous lineup amongst which he sits.

Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, and even Pedro Feliz should benefit from the confidence boost they'll soon wear on their fingers. Oh, and playing in a veritable band box never hurts the ol' sluggers.

SECOND TIER

6. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox—91 runs, 29 HRs, 115 RBI, 3 SBs, .312 average

You'll quickly see that most of the second tier guys fall under the category of "would be in the first tier, but [fill in the blank]." For Youk, it's the injury bug although he's already been cleared to go on Monday and I have it from serious people that the Greek God of Walks is better when he's leaking oil.

If that's the case, Youkilis really should be up above because he's also eligible at third base plus he's a newly minted 30-year-old, which means he's in his prime. Toss that in with a cancer-free clubhouse (has Manny responded to that?), a full year of Jason Bay, growth from Jacoby Ellsbury (25), ditto Dustin Pedroia (26 in August), and a return from the brink by either David Ortiz or Mike Lowell.

The result should make him a lock to repeat his stellar '08 performance, maybe even surpass it. Still, there is that injury...

7. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres—103 runs, 36 HRs, 119 RBI, 0 SBs, .279 average

Those numbers are simply astounding for a man who toils in the middle of the San Diego Padres' lineup. He'd probably be first tier guy if he played for almost any other team. I say probably because there's also a nagging little issue of a slight, yet steady decline in his battering average that's accompanied his power surge.

However, Gonzalez is only 26 (27 in May) and he was brutalizing opponents' pitching in the World Baseball Classic. Some of it was off less-than-pro caliber pitching (I think I saw him homer off a 16-year-old kid from South Africa or something like that), but he also touched up several guys who you'll see in the Show.

If Adrian can get just a little help, he's up with the best of the best. Unfortunately, that means saying some Hail Marys for Chase Headley to figure it out toot sweet.

8. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers—86 runs, 34 HRs, 102 RBI, 3 SBs, .276 average

You might think it's crazy to have a dude who'll turn 25 in May and already has a 50 homer season to his credit this low. And you may very well be right. But I don't buy into this diet nonsense as the reason for his comparable lack of swat in '08. I think it's probably got something more to do with the modest incline in Ks.

The number (13) isn't huge, but I'd say about an extra whiff a week when the rate should be going in the other direction is enough to indicate something's a miss. My guess is that pitchers' have developed a book on the Prince—not necessarily to neutralize him, but to keep him in the park on more frequent occasion.

And if I'm wrong, I've just put a 40+ bomb stud who'll finish in shouting range of .300 behind a guy on the Padres. It's a thin line (ironic).

9. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros—114 runs, 29 HRs, 106 RBI, 18 SBs, .312 average

I'm guessing this one and No. 11 are gonna draw the most heat—rightfully so. Berkman finished 2008 as the seventh ranked fantasy player according to Yahoo. And I've listed eight first basemen before him heading into 2009. Hey, I never said I was that smart.

But, seriously, how can a 33-year-old duplicate that season? Lance isn't old, but that swipes total more than doubled anything he'd put up more than eight previous seasons. Furthermore, he cooled considerably after a white-hot start and chances are he isn't hitting .382 on June 5th again. Plus, the lineup is getting wobbly although the addition of Ivan Rodriguez should help.

Astro fans will say Berkman's numbers actually would've been higher except he lost Carlos Lee's protection. They have a point, but there are just too many reasons to be skeptical and too many other rosy options.

10. Derek Lee, Chicago Cubs—93 runs, 20 HRs, 90 RBI, 8 SBs, .291 average

D-Lee would be in the top tier if this were 2006 because he would be coming off his best year and he wouldn't have suffered the wrist injury that seems to have sapped some of his power. The other problem is that Lee, like Berkman, is 33. That's getting towards the end o' the line for a good percentage of Major Leaguers.

On the positive side, that '08 line is still pretty nifty and he's been remarkably consistent to those marks for almost this entire century. Even if Lee's entered his decline, it shouldn't be anything drastic and there's at least an equal chance that he's got a couple more years like this last one left in the tank.

11. Aubrey Huff, Baltimore Orioles—96 runs, 32 HRs, 108 RBI, 4 SBs, .304 average

Like I said, I expect to take some heat for this. Those numbers are right up there with most of the guys in the first tier. The problem is they came out of nowhere—that's not precisely true, they came out of 2003. Since then, Huff had been in steady decline and he's 32 so an enduring resurgence just doesn't seem likely.

The flip to that coin would be that Baltimore had some nice young hitters who should be developing quite nicely. If those bats arrive to take some of the focus from Aubrey's dome and he can keep that '08 stroke going, his number could get even better.

Again, there are just safer options with basically the same upside.

THIRD TIER

12. Adam Dunn, Washington Nationals—79 runs, 40 HRs, 100 RBI, 2 SBs, .236 average

If your league uses on-base-percentage instead of average, Dunn is probably a top tier guy since he comes with 40 taters. Most leagues don't so his average isn't saved by his high walk total.

To muddy the picture further, Adam now plays for the Nats. Washington's lineup is probably more volatile off the field than on it.

13. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds—69 runs, 24 HRs, 84 RBI, 7 SBs, .297 average

These are essentially the same numbers the 25-year-old Votto has tallied at every level for the past five years. His age suggests an increase in numbers is likely for the hitting machine.

As does a full year of Jay Bruce hitting in front of him and the intimate confines of most parks in the National League Central.

14. Victor Martinez, Cleveland Indians—30 runs, 2 HRs, 35 RBI, 0 SBs, .278 average

We've already seen and covered Victor with the catchers. He's this high on the list for the same reasons—he can be used as a catcher without actually playing there and his resume earns him the benefit of injury-doubt.

That and he's hitting for good power in Spring Training.

15. Carlos Delgado, New York Mets—96 runs, 38 HRs, 115 RBI, 1 SB, .271 average

I have no idea what to make of the guy—he'll turn 37 in June, but the 38 ding-dongs from '08 make it 11 times in 12 seasons that Delgado has hit 30+ homers. His 2007 campaign and start to '08 were so bad, the Mets were scrambling to find a band-aid.

But it all came together before NY could find one and, judging from the WBC, Carlos hasn't looked back. But the guy will be able to spit to 40 before the All-Star break.

16. Chris Davis, Texas Rangers—51 runs, 17 HRs, 55 RBI, 1 SB, .286 average

There are three huge qualifiers to Davis: (A) he's 23; (B) he's eligible at the hot corner; and (C) he only registered 295 at-bats in 2008. Roughly double that stat line and you'd have one hell of a first year.

Not to mention the kid hits in a potent Ranger lineup and in a home yard where the ball flies out. If Davis can maintain that production for a full year, this could be your steal of the draft.

Fliers—Carlos Guillen (Tigers), Garrett Atkins (Colorado Rockies), Jorge Cantu (Florida Marlins), Carlos Pena (Tampa Bay Rays), James Loney (Los Angeles Dodgers), Billy Butler (Kansas City Royals), Nick Swisher (Yankees), Paul Konerko (Chicago White Sox), Mike Jacobs (Royals), Jason Giambi (Oakland Athletics)

The fliers are a cluttered and motley bunch.

You've got guys like Atkins and Swisher, who were once fantasy studs and may be again. However, their most recent seasons have left foul tastes in owners' mouthes.

You've got youngsters like Loney and Butler who have upside, but less so than the someone like Votto or Fielder.

And you've got former top tier guys who are breaking down like Giambi and Konerko.

The message here is to avoid being forced to take one of these guys. If you want to use a late round pick to see if Jacobs can hang another 32 home runs on the wall despite the chane in leagues, go for it.

Just don't make that Plan A.

Next up...second base.

Through the Wardrobe—A Fantasy Look at Catchers

2009-03-19T06:04:00.001-07:00

There's a very large difference between actual Major League Baseball and the fantasy version that so many of us anticipate with analysis-viewing pandemonium.

Fantasy baseball is probably one of the primary reasons I found my way onto Bleacher Report—I've always loved sports and discussing them, but only after I had been plumbing the depths of online resources for baseball insight did I realize how large the market for sports journalism really is.

Clearly, I'm as hooked as most of America and this is coming from someone who once hated the very mention of fantasy baseball.

Back in those days, the fact that fantasy value skews some perceptions of the real thing got under my skin and laid eggs. It still bothers me when I see the stat-driven arguments for one player over another, but not so much in MLB since the sabermetric community has developed some numbers that paint a pretty accurate picture.

However, they still don't tell the whole story, some need a lot of work (the fielding metrics particularly), and most fantasy leagues don't use them anyway. They use the standard categories like average, runs, runs batted in, home runs, stolen bases, wins, saves, earned run average, WHP, strikeouts, etc.

The two leagues I'll participate in this year use the historic stats. Regardless, I still can't wait. If it skews my perception (hopefully not) or others (already has), oh well—it's worth it.

That's basically a long-winded explanation for why my fantasy assessments might not be congruous with the real-life ones that popped up in the previews I wrote for each team.

For instance, an enormous whiff rate for a hitter doesn't really matter for fantasy purposes as long as he still fills categories like HRs, RBIs, or some other counting category. So I might still like, say, Adam Dunn for fantasy purposes.

Or the make-believe Brian Wilson might not be as valuable as the real one because the method for evaluating closers is far different in fantasy. As a San Francisco Giant fan, I couldn't care less what Wilson's ERA or WHIP is as long as he doesn't blow a bunch of saves. As a fantasy owner, I probably don't care too much about blown saves as long as he keeps his peripherals down (which he doesn't).

The other thing about fantasy is that all positions are not created equally.

This piece will deal with catchers primarily because the position is so thin. It allows me to get the introduction out of the way while still knocking a position off the list—there are only 10 or 12 guys that need examination.

Outfielders, starting pitchers, closers, and even first basemen will require a considerably longer list.

One final caveat, I'm approaching these as if I'm in a standard league i.e. AL/NL, 10-12 team league, head-to-head, five or six hitting categories, the same number of pitching categories, no transaction limits, and traditional statistical categories like those mentioned.

If you're in an exotic league, the outlook could be considerably different. Reader beware.

Without further ado, here's how I approach the backstops in the world of make-believe:

THE CATCHERS

There are two basic schools of thought.

You can view the spot in a head-to-head context, in which case you want to use a high draft pick to grab a top tier catcher. If you grab Brian McCann, you're probably gonna win the catcher battle pretty handily most weeks. Consequently, you'll have a wider margin of error for the other slots where the outcomes of positional battles are harder to predict on a weekly basis.

On the other hand, if you view the catcher in a rotisserie context (still an appropriate mentality even in head-to-head leagues), it makes little sense to grab an elite catcher for two reasons: (A) even elite catchers produce about as well as an above-average outfielder so (B) if he goes down you're screwed.

If you've burned a top draft pick on a guy just for the margin he alone provides and he hits the shelf, you've just dug yourself a considerable hole. You've given up substantial value drafting an elite catcher over his counterpart at basically any other offensive position (I'll cover pitchers when I get there) and now you're plan is out the window.

In two seasons of fantasy baseball, I've taken the head-to-head approach and had it work to perfection with Victor Martinez in 2007 then blow up in my face with Jorge Posada last year. My team made the playoffs both times, but I plan on taking the rotisserie approach because I think I got lucky when my league slept a bit on Ryan Doumit.

Furthermore, the rotisserie approach to the overall draft makes sense for another reason.

In a 10-12 team league with opponents who have even a vague notion of what they're doing, you're not gonna get an elite player at every position. If that's the case, then why not forfeit the weakest one right away?

Baseball's so unpredictable that, while the positional tete-a-tete approach makes logical sense, it makes far more sense to collect as many high-end pieces as possible to protect against the inevitability of one going down.

With that in mind, here are the draftable catchers (in descending order):

FIRST TIER

1. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves—68 runs, 23 HRs, 87 RBI, 5 SBs, .301 average

The biggest stud in the catching game illustrates the problem right off the bat. This it the best bet at a grueling position. McCann's only 25, hits for good average/power, and will probably flirt with 100 RBI in a stronger lineup this year.

But he still finished 2008 as the 94th rated player in fantasy baseball according to Yahoo. That means the best catcher available finished '08 behind such luminaries as my boy Randy Winn, Michael Young, Joey Votto, and Melvin Mora.

Those are nice hitters, but not a single fantasy player would DREAM of grabbing one of 'em with the 44th pick in a draft. And, yet, that's where McCann's going.

I'm not saying it's totally unwise because he's as good a gamble to stay healthy at an impossibly vulnerable position and McCann's as reliable as death/taxes. Combined, those could make him worth the premium you'll pay.

And his numbers should be even better this year with the acquisition of Garret Anderson, better years from Jeff Francoeur (it can't be worse), and his own growth in the batters box as well as that of Casey Kotchman (26), Kelly Johnson (27), and Yunel Escobar (26).

Make no mistake, though, you WILL be paying a premium for McCann. Aramis Ramirez finished '08 as the 44th ranked fantasy player last year and he put up considerably better numbers.

2. Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs—66 runs, 23 HRs, 86 RBI, 0 SBs, .285 average

By the time '09 is over, fantasy might have a new champ donning the Tools of Ignorance.

Consider that Soto basically put up the same numbers as McCann less about 15 points from his batting average. He's also about a year older than the Braves' backstop. However, last year was Geovany's first full one in the Show and that's no meager qualifier considering it means he also had to adjust to defense at the most difficult professional position.

Despite the acclimation, he still managed to keep pace with arguably the most complete (offensive) catcher in the game. Not too shabby.

Like McCann's Atlanta lineup, Soto figures to benefit from the presence of some new blood (Milton Bradley if he can stay on the diamond) as well as a rebound from a key teammate (Derek Lee, who's hurt right now apparently). Those two pieces combined with another year of maturity/experience on Geovany should give his numbers a boost.

The only question is whether it will be big enough to propel him passed McCann and into the throne.

3. Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers—87 runs, 13 HRs, 69 RBI, 18 SBs, .280 average

This guy poses a special problem for me.

For one thing, I refuse to draft Bums—I just won't do it. Since there are arguably only four top tier catchers and Martin's definitely one of them, 25 percent of the group is untouchable for me.

For another (really an extension of the first), Martin may represent a critical little wrinkle at the position.

Most fans know that catchers don't put up shiny offensive numbers because the physical exertion and beating behind the plate is profound. It drains MLB's squatters faster and drier than any other position on the field so, if you can get a guy who qualifies as a catcher without actually playing there, yahtzee!

Russell Martin played several games at third base in '08. With Casey Blake on the roster and no scintillating option behind Martin, a move to the hot corner doesn't seem likely. But the guy has serious speed at 26 and LA may be equally serious about trying to protect it.

Regardless, last season was a bit of a lateral step for the Dodgers' young catcher. Look for a step forward in 2009.

SECOND TIER

4. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins—98 runs, 9 HRs, 85 RBI, 1 SB, .328 average

Mauer actually finished 2008 as the highest rated catcher in baseball (according to Yahoo) so why are there three names ahead of him? Especially considering he's a catcher who hit .328?

Easy, he's already got a ding going.

Like I said, catcher is brutal physically and even more so mentally. It is simply impossible for a guy to last 162 games without losing a substantial amount of edge from both aspects of his game—it just ain't happening.

So entering the season with a bite in a muscle or a tweak in a tendon or whatever is Bad News Bears for anyone, but infinitely more so for a catcher.

And Joe Mauer sounds like he's got something serious a-brewin'.

I want NO part of that. In fact, I might have him lower on this list by the time my drafts roll around. If the news doesn't start getting better on him quickly, I'd go so far as to drop him down to Victor Martinez.

Major League catchers don't recharge on their days off—they just deteriorate a little more slowly. If you're not starting Opening Day at 100 percent, you're screwed.

5. Chris Ianetta, Colorado Rockies—50 runs, 18 HRs, 65 RBI, 0 SBs, .265 average

That line doesn't look particularly impressive so why does Ianetta rank up with last seaon's (dented) best model?

Because he put those numbers up in only 333 at-bats and he plays his home games at Coors Field in Denver. Plus he's scorching the ball in the World Baseball Classic against some high caliber pitching and he scored from second (although the ump blew the call) on a ground ball to first. All he needed was for the pitcher to argue the call.

If you even think about doing something like that, you've gotta have good speed or not much rattlin' around the ol' coconut. Since backstops have to be baseball smart, that tells me the bagel in the stolen bags column will not be there in 2009.

Even if it is (maybe he's a bad base stealer), the dude will only be 26 in several weeks and the job is entirely his this year. Ianetta should see about 200 extra ABs and that may result in around 30 bombs with the bump in peripherals such would entail.

Granted, the Colorado lineup has lost a lot of oomph with no more Matt Holliday. But it's got some young kids that could come around and Holliday's absence should mean more runs to drive in for other RBI guys...like Ianetta.

If he comes through, he could hop into the top tier. If not, he could fall and fall.

6. Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh Pirates—71 runs, 15 HRs, 69 RBI, 2 SBs, .318 average

Doumit would be above Ianetta if he were younger. He's still not old at 28 (in a couple weeks), but those may be significant years when measuring the life of a catcher. Doumit also got more ABs (431) in '08 so, although he should see a full slate this year barring another injury, his numbers don't figure to see as great an inflation as Ianetta's.

There's also the matter of the lineup.

I think Pittsburgh will surprise a lot of people this year, but it's still not a fearsome collection of hitters. The Bucs have some nice potential, but it could be slim pickin's if that potential doesn't arrive on time.

The bottom-line is that Doumit can rake and he's probably the best combo of power/average you'll get outside of McCann.

He could hang in the top tier if he can stretch those '08 numbers out over 100 more ABs this campaign, but he doesn't figure to fall below the second tier since a .300+ average over 400 ABs is usually a good indication the wood is for real.

THIRD TIER

7. Victor Martinez, Indians—30 runs, 2 HRs, 35 RBI, 0 SBs, .278 average

Only six players in and we're starting to wobble.

Martinez leads off the third tier despite losing essentially the entire '08 campaign to injury because of that aforementioned wrinkle to the catcher position. Victor sees regular work at first base and that (in theory) keeps him fresher longer. It's also supposed to keep him healthy.

The best laid plans of mice and men...

In truth, Martinez' versatility could move him up this list except he's already 30 and coming off serious injury. Although early reports coming out of Spring Training indicate that he's got his power stroke back, exhibition pitching is not real pitching and that's even truer this year with so many key arms at the WBC.

Of course, there is the matter of a decently extensive track record that shows Victor to be a reliable bet for an average around .300 and close to 20 tater tots.

If he can return to those heights, it would launch him right back into the catching stratosphere.

8. Kelly Shoppach, Cleveland Indians—67 runs, 21 HRs, 55 RBI, 0 SBs, .261 average

Shoppach had a very nice 2008 by catchers' standards. So nice, he figures to see more than 352 ABs in 2009. So why does he get left behind when more ABs for guys like Ianetta and Doumit bump them into the second tier?

More at-bats are only a good thing if the production stays consistent or nearly so. If the production declines, then more chances hurts the overall body of work as the ratios decline faster than the counting stats increase.

With catchers, that's a considerably larger problem because only the better backstops can continue to produce at the April/May status quo in August/September.

In other words, I don't expect Shoppach to add a ton of counting stats (HRs, RBIs, etc.) in those additional plate appearances. I do expect them to bring his average down, though, so I figure his '09 campaign to closely resemble his '08 version in overall value.

9. Mike Napoli, Anaheim Angels—39 runs, 20 HRs, 49 RBI, 7 SBs, .273 average

Napoli put up pretty incredible numbers in just 227 ABs. But he slides down here because he is also already banged up and, like Shoppach, I don't expect his production to last over 162 games.

It might look odd because Napoli would seem to have a better mix of average, power, and speed. However, he's also got three years of basically the same production. That makes the lack in increase of AB's most troubling.

Napoli's numbers did increase in 2008 more drastically than in previous years so look for him to see some extra time. But only if he can stay healthy and, even then, it doesn't seem to be a lock.

10. Benjie Molina, San Francisco Giants—46 runs, 16 HRs, 95 RBI, 0 SBs, .292 average

It kills me to do this to one of my guys, but even I wouldn't draft Big Money.

I'm actually being generous keeping him this high. Molina is probably the Giants' most threatening hitter, but that's more a statement about the rest of the team than it is one about Benjie.

He put up arguably the best year of his career at the age of 34 and he finished as the 195th ranked player in the Yahoo game. Molina finished 2008 behind Jose Guillen, Mike Aviles, Ryan Theriot, and Christian Guzman.

And that's your best case scenario. Ugh.

11. Jorge Posada, New York Yankees—18 runs, 3 HRs, 22 RBI, 0 SBs, .268 average

I have to include Posada as draftable simply because he hits in the New York Yankees' lineup. That alone should be good for some big numbers if he can stay healthy (see a common theme?).

Of course, Jorge will be 38 in August and that's old for almost any position. For catcher, it's freakin' ancient.

With Mark Teixeira aboard at first base and Hideki Matsui unable to play the field for at least the first half, there wouldn't seem to be any place to put Posada to spare him the abuse of catching.

And what if his shoulder doesn't rebound? What if he physically can't play behind the plate? Then his only ABs will come in a platoon with Matsui at designated hitter while spelling Tex on occasion.

Not great circumstances under which to try to recapture the glory of youth for anyone.

Fliers—Matt Wieters (Baltimore Orioles), Taylor Teagarden (Texas Rangers), Jared Saltalamacchia (Rangers), Pablo Sandoval (Giants), Jeff Clement (Seattle Mariners), Dioner Navarro (Tampa Bay Rays)

The fliers at catcher are the defintion of the term. As my fliers will tend to be, they're mostly young guys with little or no track record and a ton of potential. Any name on that list (with the possible exception of Navarro) could become a 20 homer/.300 hitter if you believe what certain scouts say.

The string attached is they're trying to learn the toughest gig in the Show and Major League pitching all at once. Salty and Clement have both shown it's a difficult thing to do.

Wieters seems to be a lock to do it eventually, but this is his first year and he may be kept in the minors to delay arbitration. Sandoval is the other intriguing name because he sprays frozen ropes all over the yard plus he'll be playing mostly third (or first if Plan A falls apart).

Next up...first base.

Please Don't Let David Wright Kill the World Baseball Classic

2009-03-18T16:18:00.000-07:00

Can you hear it?

I can and I'm all the way across the United States of America. Even in San Francisco, I can already hear the clickety-clack of a million fingers hitting a million keys as fast as they can type or hunt-and-peck.

If you thought the cacophony being raised over the rash of injuries coming out of Team USA at the World Baseball Classic was irritating before, get ready for a whole new ballgame. And it's all because of something as simple as a foul ball.

But that's all it takes in Major League Baseball's preseason.

All it takes to make David Wright sore.

Okay, maybe that and being on the bottom of thousands of pounds of humanity.

Yeah, the New York Mets' prized third baseman has every right to be aching after the display he and his mates put on—that's not the point.

The point is that soreness—even of the mildest variety—is a kosher reason to shut it down for a while in Spring Training for star players. Shoot, a lot of the veteran stars don't take the exhibition seriously until the last week or so for that very reason.

The superstars who are acclimated to the Show's rhythms want to hit Opening Day feeling 100 percent because it's a looooooong season and they know they can snap into form quickly.

Which makes all the hand-wringing over the "intensity" of the WBC and the alleged injuries it's causing a little ridiculous. During the pruning US-Venezuela game, the excellent broadcast team discussed it.

Ken Rosenthal went into it at some length, but he emphasized the wrong thing.

The problem with the WBC is not the injuries. As Rosenthal glosses over, these so-called injuries are an endemic part of spring baseball in general.

For one thing, most of them are not really injuries in the pro sport sense of the word. If a lot of these dings happened when the games counted, the victim would still play all nine innings (or whatever the equivalent is if he's a pitcher).

However, when you're just trying to round into regular season form, you might shut it down if you're feeling 80 percent for too long. You might ride the pine for a couple games to get back to full strength because being healthy and strong is more important than being primed.

Even players primed leaving the exhibition season will inexplicably slump at the outset—there are no guarantees in baseball and that's the understatement of the year with regards to hitting the pearl.

More insane, though, is the causal link between the Classic and the injuries. It's simply bull feces.

What do Manny Ramirez, Jim Johnson, Trevor Hoffman, Joe Mauer, Tim Redding, Justin Duchscherer, Randy Johnson, Fernando Perez, Vernon Wells, and Ervin Santana all have in common?

They are all expected (or had the potential) to be important pieces for their respective teams in 2009 and are suffering from an injury NOT sustained at the World Baseball Classic.

Yes, the possible impact of injuries coming from Team USA (or others) is higher because those players are—more or less—the best of the best. Of course, that makes the ailments substantially more likely to be scrapes, bruises, and twists rather than gashes, fractures, or torn ligaments.

Do you think the powers-that-be from the WBC are gonna take chances with guys like Ryan Braun, Dustin Pedroia, Chipper Jones, etc.? Do you think their counterparts in Milwaukee, Boston, Atlanta, etc. would tolerate the same?

No and no.

These guys have been taken down at the first hint of something larger. I'd bet good money they'll all be right as rain for Opening Day.

Now, don't get me wrong—I'm neither blind nor stupid.

The World Baseball Classic is obviously more intense than Spring Training. Anyone who saw that comeback against Team Puerto Rico must acknowledge that. As such, the higher stakes do pose a greater risk to a player who comes in unprepared. And that is definitely a risk.

Except it's a risk that always exists. Hey, people who are unprepared often find themselves in trouble—that's simply the way life works.

This is the second go-around for the WBC and it's not being played in a Middle Eastern country. We all knew when, where, and how it would be played.

So did the players. If they came in soft or tight/stiff and then tried to jump right into a frenzied competition, how is that the fault of the World Baseball Classic and its proponents? Nobody is forcing these guys to play and they should know what they're getting into.

If the athletes feel pressured into representing their countries (laughable), then they should take preparation for it more seriously. The solution is not to kill the Classic by tinkering it to death.

The solution is to understand that most of these injuries are actually precautionary rather than reactionary.

The solution is to accept that bad breaks happen and will happen in Spring Training, too.

The solution is to demand a touch more accountability from the guys who go down due to their own laziness or lack of discipline. Or at least less sympathy.

Most of all, the solution is to watch the damn thing and appreciate it. Warts and all. Because it sure beats the hell out of Spring Training.

The Official Manny Ramirez Era Dawns in Los Angeles

2009-03-17T09:54:00.001-07:00

If you're a Dodger fan, which of the following are you thinking when you wake up these sunny Los Angeles' mornings? After you've had your coffee and read the latest Manny Ramirez updates?

1. Oh [expletive], Manny's hurt.
2. Oh [expletive], Manny's already faking an injury to dog it.
3. Oh [expletive], Manny's got an option after 2009 so we have to do this all over.
4. Even if Manny only plays 100 games hard, we're still the favorites to win the National League West (as long as they're the right 100 games).

I'll admit, No. 4 is as legitimate as the others and the one I'd be thinking.

That still doesn't change the fact that 75 percent of the above options are bad. And that's what Manny Ramirez is at this point—a guy who gives a you one positive for every two or three negatives.

It's also why he plays for the Bums.

Not that he reflects the organization's general approach to baseball. If that were the case, I'd have no reason to despise the boys in blue because they'd be awful. And the Dodgers are many nasty things, but they are pretty good and could be really good if a couple pieces click.

I mean that LA is the only big market team that could afford to give Manny the kind of dollars he wanted (and will want/require) while absorbing the risk it entailed and still contending.

Can you imagine any other team staying in the race while devoting over $20 million per year to a guy who's a good bet to mail in 20-30 games? In a good year? I'm not sure there are any.

The Boston Red Sox clearly felt they couldn't do it.

I'd venture that means the New York Yankees can't either—whether the Bombers realize it or not will probably be revealed this winter.

The Tampa Bay Rays definitely could not—they'd have to give Manny part of the stadium gate just to pay his salary while surrounding him by minor leaguers and scabs.

Neither the Philadelphia Phillies nor the New York Mets could, not with both so closely matched and needing each key piece pulling at the rope with 100 percent. And not with the potential that's loaded up in Atlanta and Florida.

Maybe the Chicago Cubs and possibly the Los Angeles Angels. On the surface, both clubs fit the profile—history of spending premium dollars and weaker divisions.

Upon closer inspection, though, maybe not.

Both the Cubbies and Halos already have pricey and/or rickety pieces—Chicago's nucleus includes guys like Rich Harden, Alfonso Soriano, and Milton Bradley while the Junior Circuit's LA rep has guys like Vladimir Guerrero, Howie Kendrick, Juan Rivera, Ervin Santana, and Brian Fuentes.

Furthermore, both clubs may face stiffer-than-expected competition from the likes of Cincinnati, St. Louis (although I don't agree with that one), Texas, Oakland, and possibly even Seattle.

When you toss in Ramirez' climate preferences, the list dwindles even further.

The clincher is the coach.

Joe Torre is probably the only manager in Major League Baseball with the clubhouse acumen and temperament to handle a live grenade with dreadlocks. He proved it by diving on the sword so quickly and as smoothly as he did.

By taking the blame for Manny's injury, he basically dispels any notion that it's fake and protects the fragile balance from those waves.

I can still include No. 2 on the list because I'm a die-hard San Francisco Giant fan so I can call shenanigans on anything the Dodgers do with impunity. I'm supposed to be blinded by my hatred for all things in Chavez Ravine so it doesn't hurt my credibility.

Do you hear me? It does NOT affect my credibility.

But no respected member of the media can do so because they're no longer calling shenanigans on just Man-Ram. Now, they'd be saying Torre's joined in the ruse...or been suckered by it. Frankly, even I'm inclined to believe it's a sincere ding if Torre's stamping his name on it—sleazy book notwithstanding.

Nonetheless, If I were a Dodger fan—thankfully I'm not—I'd be at least a bit concerned by this picture. It doesn't mix well with a cratering economy and that option looming after 2009.

We all expect Manny to tear it up on his way to bigger dollars in '09 free agency. But what if, along the way, he realizes that only the Dodgers are genuine suitors? What if he realizes that a global financial crisis means that $25 million (or whatever it is/works out to in deferred money) is miles beyond anything even an amoral assclown like Scott Boras can squeeze from the market?

What if he realizes this in June?

Even his supporters admit the guy gets his jollies of the green more so than the glory. So what happens when Manny realizes he doesn't need the glory because he's already gotten as much green as he's gonna get?

I say the Los Angeles Dodgers and their fans better hope they only need the good Manny Ramirez for 100 games to take the National League West. Because there's a good chance that's about all they're gonna get.

Or hope the economy turns around...

Jay Cutler Reassures Us, the Modern Athlete Is Alive and Well

2009-03-16T12:03:00.001-07:00

The rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated."—Mark Twain

For a minute there, I thought the plummeting global economy might bring professional athletes down to Earth. I deluded myself into imagining a stock exchange hovering around 1997 "highs" would spread enough humility that some might even trickle down (or up) to our favorite me-firsters.

In hindsight, it wasn't so crazy—the Major League Baseball free agency period came and went without too many insane contracts handed out. Almost zero if you exclude the New York Yankee land grab.

I kept reading about the frenzied National Basketball Association and the economic prospects of some of its bottom-feeders.

The National Football League handed out some gnarly salaries at the outset of its free agency period—Albert Haynesworth, that's you big fella—but all those Benjamins aren't necessarily in the bank. In other words, the NFL already has the most reasonable compensation system of any major American pro sport so it has more wiggle room than the others.

A couple of these leagues even laid off employees (unless I dreamed that) so the usual song-and-dance seemed sincere this go-around.

Enter Jay Cutler.

Cutler is a very promising young quarterback for the Denver Broncos. He's fresh off his first Pro Bowl season and it seems to have gone directly to his dome, which is hilarious because Pro Bowls mean exactly jack squat.

All-Pro teams? Now that means something, but everyone and their mother gets a trip to Honolulu if they stick in the League long enough. Obviously, I'm exaggerating to a degree—it means you were one of the better players at your position that year.

But, c'mon—it seems like half the team is there because of popularity rather than performance while the other half is there as replacements for guys who didn't want to make the trip.

To Hawaii.

Life as an NFL star appears to be pretty tough.

Back to Jay—I don't mean to suggest he's not good. Quite the contrary. Before all this nonsense, he was one of the young guns I said I'd prefer to Tony Romo back when Romo was being mentioned as an elite QB. And he's put of some very nice numbers in his first 2+ seasons as a starter.

But, in the background of all this blather, the only numbers that really seem relevant to me are 37 and zero. As in Jay Cutler has started 37 NFL games and made zero playoff appearances.

This, unfortunately, allows that grotesque and tiresome beast to rear its head—to win or not to win, the fundamental dividing line between football fans.

Is the true value of a quarterback his ability to lead his team to postseason success? Or is it to put up gaudy statistics? I am firmly, clearly, and consistently in the former's camp.

So for Jay Cutler to be throwing a tantrum over his new coach exploring the acquisition of another promising QB with whom said coach is familiar looks petulant and childish to me.

And stupid.

Let's look at this rationally—Josh McDaniels came over from the New England Patriots who just had a very good year against some very long odds in a relatively strong American Football Conference East. They did it with a young and unproven QB (Matt Cassel), who is now available. Additionally, McDaniels worked very closely with Cassel as the offensive coordinator and QBs coach.

On the other hand, he's got a young QB, who has put up great numbers in a relatively weak AFC West and has yet to lead his team to the postseason. In fairness, two tries at such a young age and level of inexperience is not exactly conclusive—far from it.

But here's the kicker—this is a BUSINESS.

Cutler's complaining because he's not sure he can trust his boss, that he no longer feels his job is secure, and that he doesn't feel appreciated in general.

Hey, join the f***ing crowd Jay.

Our population is in the hundreds of millions and we're angry. You can find us by opening your eyes and/or ears. Take a look around the United States. Or take a broader snapshot of the entire WORLD.

Our bosses have ALL lied to us—that's why markets are dumping thousands of points and entire countries have declared bankruptcy or are staring it in the face.

Almost EVERY job is insecure these days, if you even have a job—the US has dumped, what, a billion since December 2007 (it's more like four million, but you get the gist).

How many underlings are constantly treated with respect by the powers-that-be? And how is this disrespectful anyway?

Jay Cutler is not Tom Brady or Peyton Manning or Ben Roethlisberger. He's not Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb, Drew Brees, or Carson Palmer.

Shoot, he's not even Joe Flacco, Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, or Matt Ryan.

Every name mentioned has better bullet points on his resume than Cutler.

Furthermore, Josh McDaniels has been entrusted with an NFL team—it's his responsibility to pursue any and all options that could make the Denver Broncos better. It would be borderline negligent to ignore even the notion of acquiring Matt Cassel.

There's at least a reasonable argument that says Cassel's promise is just as juicy as Cutler's and his track record is just as impressive. The argument's clearly not open-and-shut, but it's there.

What's worse, it's not clear that any of this from Cutler is sincere.

I say it's at least plausible that he's using the Cassel situation as a pretext to jump ship after the Broncs deep-sixed their previous offensive coordinator. Jay apparently stamped that OC with his all-important seal of approval and it appears Jay usually gets what Jay wants.

I say that because he's very careful to point out that he hasn't demanded a trade until this little tempest in a teapot. What Cutler conveniently omits is that the controversy is of his own creation.

So now, predictably, the situation has devolved into an ugly and public he-said/he-said. Cutler's missing team meetings, demanding a trade, and basically portraying himself as the wounded lamb.

I mean, Josh McDaniels had the audacity to be forthright, to say he couldn't promise Cutler would never be traded. The horror, the horror.

The only surprising part is that owner Pat Bowlen, a man for whom my respect is growing, has given every outward indication of shaking down on McDaniels' side.

How novel—supporting your young coach rather than the spoiled player. Take the side of the mature adult in the room rather than the red-face brat splashing spittle all over everyone.

I just wish more owners and coaches would follow Bowlen and McDaniels' lead. I wish more bosses in professional sports would demand maturity from even their stars by rewarding those who have it/show it.

Because reality seems to be coming for us all and, if this is gonna be the typical reaction, it's gonna be a very long year.

The Boston Red Sox' 2009 Slightly Premature Preview

2009-03-16T07:38:00.000-07:00

This is gonna be a little experiment driven by necessity.

I'm borrowing the idea of joint and several liability from law to solve an irritating little glitch. The idea is to write a single article, lop it in two, and have the two parts work autonomously. More accurately, it's to write two articles at the same time that are the product of a single thought process.

It may work or I may thoroughly confuse myself and end up writing about the National Football League by the end. We'll see.

The 'little glitch' was that, with only the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox left in my preview series, I was locked up.

Ironic, because I was also giddy with excitement—these are the sexy celebrities of my world. Forget Jennifer Aniston, Meagan Fox, Meagan Good, Jessica Alba, etc. Well, don't forget 'em, but you see what I'm getting at.

I don't give a flying fornication about Hollywood—my deviant time-drain is Major League Baseball and these are the two biggest names in town.

Anyway, I sat down to write about the Pinstripes and got about a paragraph into it before I found myself thinking about the BoSox. I got another couple sentences and found my mind back on Beantown.

Further adding to my angst, the stuff I had on screen regarding the Yanks was garbage. So I tried starting with Boston—the same thing happened with the roles reversed.

Therein lines the problem with Boston and New York baseball: it's not impossible to separate the two, but it's frequently easier if you don't. The two franchises have a pseudo-symbiotic relationship.

Heretofore, it was a parasitic symbiosis with one team dominating and the other carried along by the rival's wake.

First, the Yankees rose to prominence and rumbled off a string of World Series wins. Their success buoyed the profile of Boston and forced them into a corner. Either the Red Sox had to become a punching bag for their biggest rival or they had to answer the bell.

For those of you not around in 2004, the Sox answered the bell.

That flipped the paradigm and suddenly Boston was the trolling shark with New York playing the little minnow that cleans its teeth.

The Yankees responded by throwing money at the problem. And then more money. And then more. None of it worked as the Sawks began to dominate the rivalry—maybe not in the regular season since those games always seem to be tight, but in the postseason and public perception.

Then came this offseason and the $400 Million Spending Spree in New York. It's a little early, but (as I said in my Yankees preview) I think a new day is dawning—I think New York has put together so much talent in all areas that it's a shark again.

But don't think for a second that means Boston has become a minnow.

It's offseason acquisitions weren't as expensive or showy, but they were just as shrewd. Make no mistake—Boston is still a very dangerous shark. In fact, it's the shark that will still be swimming in November.

Take a look at the roster:

Projected starting lineup

Catcher—Jason Varitek
First base—Kevin Youkilis
Second base—Dustin Pedroia
Third base—Mike Lowell
Shortstop—Jed Lowrie
Left field—Jason Bay
Center field—Jacoby Ellsbury
Right field—J.D. Drew/Rocco Baldelli
Designated hitter—David Ortiz

Hot damn, I love that lineup! And I'm not a particular fan of the Red Sox.

Catcher's almost a total void, but Boston can easily sacrifice the offensive production from the typical professional backstop if it feels Varitek's leadership/game-calling are important assets.

Pedroia's got a little tweak going, Drew's always good for several over the course of the year, Lowell will surely go down at some point, and Ortiz probably won't make it through 162 games unscathed. But injuries are something all teams must deal with and Boston has the bench to do just that.

Baldelli will probably float around the outfield and DH to basically qualify as an everyday player, but the true bench looks pretty stout.

Julio Lugo turn as a starter in Boston has been a notorious flop, but he's more potent than your average back-up. Mark Kotsay is a gamer and could probably still start for some clubs. Josh Bard fell of a cliff last season, but he swung the bat pretty well in prior years.

Boston also may opt to break camp with its top prospect—first baseman Lars Anderson—in tow. Baseball America lists the 21-year-old stud as the 17th up-and-comer in all of baseball so he might click right away. So far, he's struggling in Spring Training.

Top prospects Chris Carter (26, outfield) and Josh Reddick (22, outfield and Boston's No. 5 prospect) are both in camp. Carter is treading water while Reddick is scalding the pill. There doesn't seem to be much room for either, though, so they'll probably head to the minors come April.

He's not with the club, but I've got to mention top prospect Casey Kelly. Baseball America lists him as a pitcher/shortstop. What is that?

I've never seen it before—I've heard of guys getting converted from one to the other, but never simultaneously doing both. I'm fascinated.

Starting rotation

Ace—Josh Beckett (R)
Second spot—Daisuke Matsuzaka (R)
Third spot—Jon Lester (L)
Fourth spot—Brad Penny (R)
Fifth spot—Clay Buchholz (L)

Talk about an embarrassment of riches.

John Smoltz isn't even up there because he's not supposed to be ready until May/June, but reports had him throwing 90 as early as January and the Boston team doctors are calling him a freak of nature due to his shoulder's response to treatment after surgery.

Tim Wakefield has always been a reliable option and he's still in the mix since he's getting a lot of starts so far in Spring Training. Justin Masterson was once a top prospect and he's almost surely relegated to the bullpen.

Furthermore, Boston has its No. 2 and No. 4 prospects in camp. Michael Bowden is No. 2 and the 22-year-old righty has seen some starting action in exhibition and got lit up. Daniel Bard is No. 4 and the 24-year-old (in June) righty is pitching very well so far, but out of the 'pen.

Let's say the Red Sox have several nice options and leave it at that.

Bullpen

Closer—Jonathan Papelbon (R)
Set-up—Takashi Saito (R)
Set-up—Hideki Okajima (L)
Set-up—Manny Delcarmen (R)
Set-up—Javier Lopez (L)
Set-up—Ramon Ramirez (R)

It's odd looking at this roster and New York's after previewing 28 other professional baseball franchises. I say that because, next to each other, the two rosters look very close (and next to Tampa's as well).

Next to the rest of baseball? They're like night and day—the weaknesses are tiny and to collateral parts like the catcher or the bench or the fifth spot in the rotation or the middle arms in the bullpen.

And you could argue that the core of Boston's club is stronger even than the New York's Junior Circuit rep.

On offense, get ready for Jason Bay.

He gave a preview after coming over to Boston last year, but it's gonna get better. He's in his prime at 30 and built to swing for the Green Monster. In 2008, he bounced back from a knee injury to hit .286 with 35 doubles, 31 home runs, 111 runs scored, 101 RBI, 10 stolen bases, a .373 on-base percentage, and an .895 OPS.

And he played over 100 games in the Pittsburgh Pirate lineup. Like I said, look out.

Because the Pirate lineup did not feature guys like Kevin Youkilis. Youk is a defensive machine along with raking to the tune of a .312 average with 43 doubles, 29 bombs, 91 runs, 115 RBI, a .390 OBP, and a .958 OPS. Those numbers are insane and he's 30 as well so 2009 should see about the same, if not better, production.

The Pirate lineup did not feature guys like Dustin Pedroia.

Although I think the AL Most Valuable Player award should have gone elsewhere, it's tough to argue with Pedroia's '08 campaign—.326, 54 doubles, 17 homers, 118 runs, 83 RBI, 20 swipes, .376 OBP, and .869 OPS. This from a 25-year-old (26 in August) second baseman.

And let us not forget the mental toughness this kid's got. Like him or not, what he's been able to accomplish since the anemic start to his career in '06-'07 is remarkable.

How about a table-setter like Jacoby Ellbsury? Think that kid might enhance Bay's production?

The 25-year-old water strider struggled for stretches in '08 and has been brutalized for his low-ish on-base abilities, but his final tally was dandy—.280 with 22 doubles, nine taters, 98 runs, 47 RBI, 50 steals, a .336 OBP, and a .729 OPS. Additionally, it was Ellsbury's first full season in the Show so his plate discipline figures to get better and that OBP will rise.

Honestly, such a gripe proves just how robust Boston is. Only a truly elite team could care about such things when you've got speed, good peripherals, and defensive prowess like Jacoby.

Jed Lowrie probably won't make the All-Star team at any point, but he's a good glove and can help at times. At the very least, the name on his jersey doesn't read 'Lugo.'

J.D. Drew, Mike Lowell, and David Ortiz have all settled into very similar territory. That territory looks like this—a stint or two on the shelf, good average, good power, and pretty good defense (very good from Lowell). Granted, Big Papi provides his by not taking the field. The best days from all three are well in the rearview mirror, but each is still dangerous.

And I still want zero part of Ortiz in a big spot.

Rocco Baldelli could explode back into the career arc he was on before his mysterious ailment derailed it. If that happens, the Red Sox just stole a perennial 20+ homer/.300 hitter. Obviously, the 'if' is enormous.

Regardless, that offense figures to put some crooked numbers on the board in Fenway and other parks.

Bad news for the rest of MLB because Boston's staff should be one of the stingiest.

At the top, the Sawks open with the ferocity of Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Beckett has always been fragile and it seems he always will be. But, when healthy, the guy is as nasty as the come and probably at the top of the list of big game pitchers going today. Even while struggling with a back injury in '08, he posted a 1.19 WHIP and almost a K per inning.

Early reports put Josh in the best shape of his career so signs point to him being healthy and back to his dominant self in '09.

As for Dice-K, it's time for me to cop to being wrong about this Japanese import.

For some reason, I though his brilliant record last year was the product of superlative run support rather than great pitching. Hmmm, I was really, really, really wrong—18-3, 2.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, .211 batting average against, 154 Ks against 94 walks, and only 12 dongs surrendered in 167+ innings pitched.

The wildness will always be a part of Matsuzaka's game, but it's an effective part as his WHIP and ERA suggest so it's time to acknowledge that Dice-K has become every bit the ace he was supposed to become. I didn't think it would happen and it has.

With two aces up front, the rest of the rotation doesn't need to be great. Of course, the baseball gods don't give their gifts based on need.

Jon Lester could already be an ace in some rotations, he was arguably Boston's best postseason pitcher in '08, and he's currently the Sox No. 3. Clay Buchholz already has a no-no to his credit, but he's probably a longshot to make the rotation (I've got him in there because I like lefties).

Tim Wakefield is a proven winner even if his knuckleball is losing a shade of consistency. John Smoltz will join the rotation before midseason and he's a former Cy Young with plenty in the tank (if you believe him, which I do). Brad Penny is a bum as an ace, but he should be incredible as a No. 4 (or 5).

And the rotation gets even stronger upon closer inspection of the bullpen.

Jonathan Papelbon is probably the best closer in the Bigs. He blew five saves last year in 46 chances, which is more than some other guys in the running, but he closes for Boston. That ups the ante because the 9th inning is pressure-packed for any team.

Plus, he whiffed 77 guys in 69+ IP, registered a 0.95 WHIP, 2.34 ERA, walked only eight guys, surrendered only four homers, and I've been told he enters some games to "Master of Puppets." I'm sold.

While the closer's probably got the filthiest arsenal in that 'pen, the other guys and new acquisitions Takashi Saito/Ramon Ramirez aren't walks in the park. I can say from first-hand observation that Saito's as brutal as they come on opposing bats and the same has been said about Ramirez (the main piece in the Coco Crisp deal).

Manny Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima, and Javier Lopez are all holdovers from a successful pen last year. They should be just as effective in 2009 except they'll be exhibiting their wares in earlier frames.

Seriously, with all the plus arms ready for relief work, Boston might have to pull the starters by the 7th inning just to generate the appearances necessary to keep everybody sharp. That's not a normal problem and I'd bet it's a nice one to have.

If you make a living playing Major League Baseball and you don't happen to have a Red Sox uni hanging in your locker, you might not want to step back from this picture and drink it all in.

Because the overall work is a masterpiece of interlocking talents and redundant protection.

The offense revolves around a core group of hitters in their prime and veterans capable of splattering the ball all over the park. The starting pitching could probably feature a seven-man rotation without much difference from Nos. 4 through 7 and the bullpen could arguably start trotting out closer-caliber arms with nine outs to go.

On paper, this roster lacks the glitz and glam of the New York Yankees, but that profile comes with a price—all eyes will be fixated upon the Yankees. They already are.

For a franchise used to having every single move scrutinized by the national media, the Boston Red Sox are flying about as under the radar as possible due to the volume coming out of New York City. That should allow them to find their rhythm in relative (national) peace and quiet.

When two teams are as closely stocked as the Yankees and Red Sox are, it's usually something intangible that makes the difference.

The boys from Beantown have continuity, confidence, momentum, and the novelty of muted hysteria on their side.

By November, they should have another World Series trophy as well.

The New York Yankees' 2009 Slightly Premature Preview

2009-03-15T13:21:00.000-07:00

With all due respect to the Tampa Bay Rays, the two favorites are finally in the building—the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox.

I feel a little bad about doing this because it's one of the primary reasons people really hate these two franchises—they get all the hype no matter how recent and thunderous their failures.

Boston lost the American League East and the AL Championship Series to Tampa in 2008. New York failed to even qualify for the playoffs. Yet, here I am, touting both as the kings of the hill with no reason except offseason headlines.

After all, Tampa improved and was better than both last year. The difference is the Rays' improvement flew under the radar because it wasn't as substantial or expensive. But it didn't need to be.

Yet it's impossible and foolish to ignore what the other two teams did. Especially the Yankees.

The Bronx Bombers have always spent money in the offseason, but this winter's orgy of expenditure was embarrassing even by their standards. It was different in another way, too—the money was spent wisely.

Not necessarily in the bang-for-buck sense as the contracts are obviously bloated, but in terms of addressing the most crucial needs.

For whatever reason, recent years saw New York taking foolish gambles on flash-in-the-pan hurlers while bringing aboard expensive-but-proven bats. Lots of them. That didn't work and it seems the Yanks finally got the memo—better late than never.

You and I might think NY overpaid for CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. We're probably right, but they were arguably the two best pitchers on the market and both represent drastic upgrades. That makes them great signings for a franchise free to print its own money.

On the other side of the coin, offense was rarely the problem in New York.

Still, it was starting to show its age in '08 so the Yankees went out and grabbed the best young hitter on the market. Instead of grabbing a player that had already peaked (Manny Ramirez), they grabbed a guy still on the rise (Mark Teixeira) who could also help in other areas i.e. with his glove.

At a weak position to boot.

With those pieces added to an already formidable roster, New York is built for regular and postseason dominance. Just like Boston. And that should make for an intriguing playoff series because I expect both to be there.

Here's how the Yanks figure to take the field on Opening Day:

Projected starting lineup

Catcher—Jorge Posada
First base—Mark Teixeira
Second base—Robinson Cano
Third base—Cody Ransom/Angel Berroa
Shortstop—Derek Jeter
Left field—Johnny Damon
Center field—Brett Gardner
Right field—Xavier Nady
Designated hitter—Hideki Matsui/Nick Swisher

Once this lineup gets Alex Rodriguez back, Mr. April-Through-July is gonna turn a scary order into a white-knuckle affair for any pitcher in baseball. Until then, though, other Bombers will have to step up because neither Ransom nor Berroa is a solution.

Either guy actually might make the problem worse. For whatever reason, New York seems to really like Ransom. Uh...this guy got more than his fair shake with SF and couldn't cut it. Now he's supposed to adequately fill in for one of the best players in baseball (non-clutch division)?

I don't think so.

And what the hell happened to Melky Cabrera? Good grief, Gardner's got a terrific glove, a ton of speed, but he doesn't have the upside Melky was thought to have.

Cabrera should make up part of the bench with Jose Molina, whoever the odd man out of the platoon is, and possibly two of New York's prized offensive prospects.

Baseball America ranks 22-year-old outfielder Austin Jackson as the No. 36 blue-chipper in all of baseball. He's in camp as is 19-year-old catcher, Jesus Montero. Montero's ranked No. 38.

The outfield is full up and NY has Posada slated to catch, but some of the parts in the OF are showing their wear as much as Posada so the young options may come in handy. Montero is scorching the ball while Jackson is holding his own.

Starting rotation

Ace—CC Sabathia (L)
Second spot—A.J. Burnett (R)
Third spot—Chien-Mien Wang (R)
Fourth spot—Andy Pettitte (L)
Fifth spot—Joba Chamberlian (R)

Again, there's a little bit of limbo here. It seems the Yankees are kicking around the idea of using Joba as the primary set-up guy for Mariano Rivera. Part of it would seem to be based on how dominant Chamberlain was in the role during his stint in the 'pen.

The other part would be the options in both areas. While New York's bullpen isn't terrible, it's thinner than the starting rotation.

The Yankees have youngsters Phil Coke (27 in July), Alfredo Aceves (26), Ian Kennedy (24), and Phil Huhges (23 in June) up with the Big Club for Spring Training. All are/were top prospects in the Yankee organization, but none has managed to translate his success to the Major League level.

Coke and Aceves are probably headed for the 'pen while Kennedy and Hughes will probably start in the minors. Everyone but Coke is seeing some starting action thus far so the mattter's still not decided.

Top prospect Andrew Brackman is also in camp, but the 23-year-old is working back from Tommy John surgery so he'll be brought along slowly.

If one of those guys can finally break through in the pros, Joba may find himself in the 8th inning.

Bullpen

Closer—Mariano Rivera (R)
Set-up—Damaso Marte (L)
Set-up—Jonathan Albaladejo (R)
Set-up—Edwar Ramirez (R)
Set-up—Jose Veras (R)
Set-up—Brian Brunney (L)

There's talent oozing off this roster, but that's the case every year so what to make of it?

As I said, offense isn't usually the problem and 2009 shouldn't be any different despite the brief absence of A-Rod.

Jorge Posada is getting/has gotten old and he probably won't see a .330 average ever again, but he's still gonna produce like one of the best catchers in baseball when healthy. He wasn't healthy in 2008 so it's tough to tell what he'll have at 37 this year.

But a return to his career average of about a .280 average with 20 home runs seems reasonable.

There's no telling what the glare of New York will do to Mark Teixeira, but the guy seems like a flatliner to me so I don't expect it to make much difference. Set to turn 29 in April, Tex put up a .308 average with 41 doubles, 33 HRs, 102 runs scored, 121 runs batted in, a .410 on-base percentage, and a .962 OPS.

Plus he picks it clean at first so, yeah, he should help.

It'll be interesting to see what a full year of Xavier Nady will be like in NYC (if he's around for the full year). His 2008 line is a little misleading because the .305 average, 37 doubles, 25 bombs, 76 runs, 97 RBI, .357 OBP, and .867 OPS were amassed between two teams. With the Pittsburgh Pirates, Nady hit for considerably higher average while the power was relatively consistent.

Nady's a free agent after this year and plays amidst a surplus of talent so he may be moved and probably will be if the decrease in production was something more than an adjustment period.

The home crowd won't like this, but Derek Jeter is in steady decline at the age 34 (35 in June). His numbers are tapering off as is his defense and the combination of speed/power has become pedestrian. But he's still one of the best in the game—2008 saw a .300 average, 25 doubles, 11 HRs, 88 runs, 69 RBI, 11 stolen bases, a .363 OBP, and a .771 OPS.

Those are good numbers in a vacuum, but they are even more significant coming from your shortstop captain. And the guy is still clutch–I'd feel fine having him up there in a big at-bat.

The rest of the picture is a little less rosy.

Robinson Cano showed substantial regression in 2008 and now he's dinged up, scheduled for a shoulder MRI. That's bad news; the good news is the kid's still on 26 and '08 was the first lateral step in his career so there remains plenty of reason for hope.

Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui are both old and getting older, yet a tale of two players.

Damon is aging gracefully. His skills/health are eroding at a glacial pace—.303 with 27 doubles, 17 HRs, 95 runs, 71 RBI, 29 swipes, a .375 OBP and (prepare yourself) an .836 OPS. How can that little slappy midget have an OPS so high? Damn.

Considering Damon is 35, those numbers are incredible and basically consistent with his career averages.

Matsui is the polar opposite. Despite being younger, Godzilla's missed basically two of the last three seasons with injury. This latest one was apparently serious enough to end his days in the outfield so it's DH or bust for him. Luckily, the Yankees have a nice fallback position in Nick Swisher.

Although Swish probably failed to hit his weight in 2008, his OBP was a very respectable .332. Toss in the 24 taters, 21 doubles, and last season doesn't look quite so ugly for the 28-year-old. Especially since that's gotta be the worst-case scenario for him.

I expect Swisher to even see some time in center field if he can raise his average a touch.

But it all comes down to the pitching for New York. If the offseason acquisitions take to their new surroundings, this team is gonna be in it 'til the end.

The big fella Sabathia isn't really the question. Despite a slow start to spring, the 28-year-old lefty has proven that bright lights don't bother him. With all eyes on him last year, CC delivered one of the most impressive finishing flourishes we've seen in recent years and delivered the Milwaukee Brewers to the Promised Land.

The number of innings and shaky showings in the playoffs raise some small flags, but I wouldn't be too concerned. I don't pay too much attention to pitching stats because a couple bad outings can skew the picture hopelessly, but look at CC's 2008 line—17-10 with a 2.70 earned run average, 1.11 WHIP, 251 Ks against 59 walks, 19 HRs surrendered, 253 innings pitched, 10 complete games, and five shutouts.

Holy lord. A 1.11 WHIP and only 19 homers allowed in 253 IP? TEN complete games? FIVE shutouts? Whoa.

And, yet, A.J. Burnett may be the make-or-break guy.

If he can harness his K-per-inning stuff and keep his wildness to a minimum, New York will have a dynamite one-two punch at the top of the rotation. Of course, he must also stay healthy.

With those two guys at the top, it makes the rest of the rotation ridiculous.

Chien-Ming Wang is a legit ace even if he wasn't the best to wear that moniker. He's coming back from a serious ankle injury, but the guy never relied on amazing stuff so any edge lost to injury is less cause for concern. As long as his mechanics are cool, he should be the same pitcher.

That means an arguable ace will be the No. 3 guy. Nice.

Andy Pettitte is on the back nine of his career, but he's still one of the craftiest lefties in the game and an established winner. He's a big game pitcher and you need those when you get to the postseason.

The fifth spot should go to Joba Chamberlain, but (as I said above) it might not be etched in stone. Regardless, the fifth spot will be in good hands as far as No. 5s go.

As long as the timeless wonder (Mariano Rivera) keeps going, the Yankee bullpen will never be in a world of hurt. But it's a tad thin and Rivera does turn 40 in November so his age has gotta catch up with him sometime? Right?

Of course, Mariono's dominated this long with essentially one pitch and 2008 was arguably his best year so far—39 for 40 in save opportunities, 0.67 WHIP, 1.40 ERA, 77 Ks against six walks, and four big flies allowed in 70+ IP.

With one pitch at the age of 38. Nothing about they guy has ever made any sense.

The rest of the arms in the 'pen are good and the young kids should lift the overall level of stuff, but none is worthy of being Rivera's caddy at this point—hence the debate about Joba. They are either too inconsistent, too young, too unproven, or a combination of all three.

Despite the vulnerability in the 'pen, this is probably the best team in Major League Baseball. Even with some guys missing due to injury and some older pieces in decline, the roster is filled to the brim with ability and potential.

On paper.

The games are not played on paper. They're played in real life and, for the Yankees, under intense scrutiny. That scrutiny should be amped up to a whole new level after the eventful offseason, new stadium, and A-Rod "revelation."

With so much firepower, it will take the perfect storm of adversarial conditions to prevent the New York Yankees from grabbing their 27th World Championship.

I expect that scrutiny, the talent on Boston's roster, and the lack of pressure on the Beantown nine by association to be exactly that.

And I expect the Yankee renaissance to end in the ALCS and at the hands of those Red Sox.

The Tampa Bay Rays' 2009 Slightly Premature Preview

2009-03-15T09:08:00.000-07:00

Well, they're here—the carrots on the end of the stick, the Three Gorillas in the American League East.

The Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, and Boston Red Sox look like enormous, rampaging beasts who will run roughshod through the rest of Major League Baseball while recovering from titanic clashes with each other.

Baseball rarely shakes down according to specs, but it's really tough to see how the mere mortals of the MLB world can deal with these guys on a daily basis. Even if you make every effort to see the gaps in armor and soft underbellies.

Obviously, injuries can erode even the widest talent gaps and we've already seen important pieces go down for Boston (Dustin Pedroia) and New York (Alex...Rodriguez—that's it, sorry, had to look that one up). But all three organizations have so much talent...

Anyway, on with it.

If you've been reading these previews, you've probably noticed that I tend to work my way up from the bottom of the division. Not always, but it's been a general trend. See where I'm going with this?

Yeah, I don't think the Tampa Bay Rays will return to the postseason.

It's nothing against them and it's absolutely unfair/inconsistent/etc. as their trip to the World Series is the primary reason I'm going with the Philadelphia Phillies as the overall favorite in the National League. Not only that, all those unsightly adjectives apply even more appropriately since denying Tampa it's incumbent credit goes against my general ethos in regards to professional sports.

As a rule, I believe you've got to dethrone the champ before you can become the favorite. So, yeah, dropping Tampa behind two other teams is weak sauce.

In my defense, the Rays play in the same division with the Original Evil Empire and Evil Empire II. That right there is the definition of exigent circumstances. If the Phils faced off against the OEE and EEII 35+ times a year, I'd be going against them as well.

Plus, nobody expected Tampa Bay to arrive last year.

Usually, when a team emerges early or unexpectedly to enjoy years of dominance, there's a hiccup along the way. The 1996 Yanks won their first Winter Classic in almost two decades, then stumbled in '97 before annihilating rebel bases in '98, '99, and 2000.

The New England Patriots stunned the National Football League by taking out the Greatest Show on Turf in 2002, then face-planted in '03 before taking two more Super Bowl titles in '04 and '05.

Even the great UCLA basketball dynasty under John Wooden lost the 1966 title after wins in '64, '65. The legendary program then claimed the trophy from '67 through '73.

And the Rays are relying on a ton of youth that's now had an entire offseason to consider just how cool they were in 2008. Maybe the ultimate failure in the WS motivates them to greater heights, but I think the premature success finally catches up to them and the struggle a bit with the newfound celebrity.

Ugh, I feel a little ill having typed that last part because look at this roster:

Projected starting lineup

Catcher—Dioner Navarro
First base—Carlos Pena
Second base—Akinori Iwamura
Third base—Evan Longoria
Shortstop—Jason Bartlett
Left field—Carl Crawford
Center field—Bossman Jr. Upton
Right field—Matt Joyce/Gabe Gross/Gabe Kapler
Designated hitter—Pat Burrell

This is no longer a team that must wait on prospects. Consequently, I'm not gonna waste too much time/space dissecting them. The No. 2 and No. 4 prospects are in camp because both play shortstop, which is the most vulnerable spot in the lineup.

But neither 19-year-old Tim Beckham (No. 2) nor 23-year-old Reid Brignac (No. 4) is doing much of anything yet. Ben Zobrist is also there to give Bartlett a little incentive.

Right field is the other question mark and you can through Justin Ruggiano's name in there as well. It'll probably be a platoon situation until somebody stakes a permanent claim. When/if that happens, the rest of those guys will form a capable bench with the likes of Morgan Ensberg, Zobrist, Willy Aybar, and Adam Kennedy.

Somebody named Ray Sadler is crushing exhibition pitching at the moment, but he's already 28 and doesn't seem to be on anyone's radar.

Starting rotation

Ace—James Shields (R)
Second spot—Scott Kazmir (L)
Third spot—Matt Garza (R)
Fourth spot—David Price (L)
Fifth spot—Andy Sonnanstine (R)

Here's were I start feeling really nauseous. That is an ironclad rotation ace through the finsky. What's even more impressive is that most of the Rays' top prospects are pitchers, two are in camp, both are getting starts, and they're doing pretty well.

In fact, if you were to base it totally off Spring Training starts, you'd say that Price isn't going to be the young gun in the rotation (no starts yet).

That honor would be going to 23-year-old righty, Wade Davis. He is Tampa's No. 3 prospect according to Baseball America and he's gotten three exhibition starts to mixed results. Or maybe another top prospect, 26-year-old Jeff Niemann.

That young righty has seen two starts, 11 exhibition innings, and surrendered a single run. He may even unseat Sonnanstine although that seems unlikely since Andy will only be 26 in a several days and showed unreal composure in '08.

Regardless, the starting rotation has layers upon layers of talent and none of it's aged beyond Shields' 27 years.

Bullpen

Closer—Troy Percival (R)
Set-up—Dan Wheeler (R)
Set-up—J.P. Howell (L)
Set-up—Grant Balfour (R)
Set-up—Chad Bradford (R)
Set-up—Brian Shouse (L)
Set-up—Joe Nelson (R)

You can see why picking the Rays to finish out of the money has me feeling so vomitous. How, in the name of all that's holy, can that NOT be a playoff team? Honestly, that right there is a World Series favorite in any other division in baseball.

No doubt about it.

The weakness—if you want to call it that—can be found in the guys wielding maple and ash clubs.

It looks like B.J. Upton, who hit .273 with 37 doubles, nine home runs, 85 runs scored, 67 runs batted in, 44 stolen bases, an on-base percentage of .383, and an OPS of .784. With one arm.

Bossman Jr. will be 25 in August so there's no reason to think he won't be right as rain once he's back from offseason shoulder surgery that figures to keep him on the shelf for possibly a week after Opening Day.

It looks like Evan Longoria, who hit .272 with 31 doubles, 27 bombs, 67 runs, 85 RBI, a .343 OBP, and an .874 OPS despite only 448 at-bats in '08 due to injury and falling prey to the business side of baseball. Not only that, the 23-year-old phenom plays a superlative hot corner. Just unreal leather at one of baseball's most difficult positions.

It looks like Carl Crawford—.273 with 12 doubles, 10 triples, eight big flies, 69 runs, 57 RBI, 25 SBs, a .319 OBP, and a .718 OPS despite missing the last seven weeks with a torn finger tendon and struggling with hamstring issues until the final shutdown. This will look like a typo, but it's not—Crawford turns 29 in August i.e. he's still in his prime so expect him to rebound from injury with vengeance.

Remember, this is the vulnerable part of the club.

Carlos Pena's couple years of productive average were probably smoke and mirrors, but his power is for real and he gets on base—24 doubles, 31 homers, 102 RBI, a .377 OPB, and an .871 OPS. Most teams will take that in a pinch. From your fourth most dangerous hitter.

New acquisition Pat Burrell brings more of the same. He only hit .250 in 2008, but he mashed 33 doubles, 33 taters, scored 74 runs, tallied 86 RBI, reached base at a .367 clip, and finished with an OPS of .875. You might see a bit of a decline since he's 32, switching to a more pitcher-friendly park, and seeing new pitchers.

But that line has been a staple for Pat the Bat so don't bet on it.

Dioner Navarro is a 25-year-old, switch-hitting All-Star catcher. I'll take it.

What's that you say? He hit .295 with 27 doubles, 43 runs, 54 RBI, a .349 OBP, a .757 OPS, and only struck out 49 times in 427 ABs last year? Even better. Sure, he's not gonna hit for power—Jimmy crack corn and I don't care.

Akinori Iwamura and Jason Bartlett are pretty similar although Iwamura offers a bit more power while Bartlett provides considerably more speed. Neither is remarkable in any capacity although Jason may have been a 30+ swipe guy had he not injured his knee in the middle of the '08 campaign.

The right field situation is too cluttered to parse out at the moment. The Gabes (Gross and Kapler) are capable back-ups, but have proven to wear out under the strain of a starting gig. Matt Joyce and Justin Ruggiano are pure potential at this point.

So that's what an Achilles' heel looks like atop the AL East. Huh.

Even compared to a rugged lineup like that, the Tampa Bay pitching staff is clearly the strength of the team.

I've already covered the most disturbing thing about the starters (if you are the opposition), that being the maturity and performance well beyond their very tender years.

James Shields (27), Scott Kazmir (25), Matt Garza (25), and Andy Sonnanstine (soon-to-be 26) all registered 2008 WHIPs below 1.30 and only Sonnanstine's earned run average was north of 4.00. Only Sonnanstine's K per nine innings was south of 6.00.

The got not included above, David Price, is the youngest (24 in August) and has the best stuff.

Plus Tampa's got more arms on farm that are even younger. Good grief.

The other half of the staff is no less staggering despite the absence of a terrifying closer.

Troy Percival is well-removed from his glory days in California/Anaheim/Los Angeles and he is a series of injuries waiting to happen. But he only blew four saves in 32 chances last year. His peripherals were decent and, in an ideal world, they'd be better.

But, for a closer, all that matters is that save percentage and Percival's (87.5 percent) was damn fine.

Of course, part of the reason Percival looks so underwhelming is because of the arms around him. The bridge from the starters to the closer in Tampa might as well be an 85 degree uphill grade for opposing "drivers" to climb (2008 stats):

J.P. Howell—1.13 WHIP, 2.22 ERA, 92 Ks, 39 walks, six HRs allowed, 89+ innings pitched
Dan Wheeler—0.99 WHIP, 3.12 ERA, 53 Ks, 22 walks, 10 HRs allowed, 66+ IP
Grant Balfour—0.89 WHIP, 1.54 ERA, 82 Ks, 24 walks, three HRs allowed, 58+ IP
Chad Bradford—1.25 WHIP, 2.12 ERA, 17 Ks, 15 walks, three HRs allowed, 59+ IP
Joe Nelson—1.19 WHIP, 2.00 ERA, 60 Ks, 22 walks, five HRs allowed, 54 IP
Brian Shouse—1.17 WHIP, 2.81 ERA, 33 Ks, 14 walks, five HRs allowed, 51+ IP

Bradford spent most of the year with the Baltimore Orioles, Nelson spent its entirety with the Florida Marlins, and Shouse did so with the Milwaukee Brewers so those numbers may be misleading, but I doubt it.

Furthermore, the worries regarding a genuine stopper as the keystone to this dynamite 'pen look a little fabricated. Howell, Wheeler, and Balfour seemed to handle the role decently plus David Price has yet to get a spring start.

With Niemann pitching so well, it's conceivable Tampa uses Price in the role he played to much acclaim last postseason i.e. closer while seeing if the other young buck can shore up the resulting hole in the rotation. Some will say that's a waste of talent, but that's a little myopic considering a reliable closer may be more important than a vicious third/fourth starter.

In any event, I don't see a whole lot to worry about in the bullpen. Nor with the rest of the team if observed in a vacuum. There just aren't serious flaws.

Which is why it's no stretch to say this would be the best team in any other division in Major League Baseball.

The offense is its obvious weakness, but it's got the kind of brute strength that accidentally kills puppies. The starting pitching has redundant talent like few modern rotations have ever seen and the bullpen looks about as prone to generosity as Manny Ramirez.

But there are three shades of perfection fighting for two spots. One must lose.

Unfortunately, I think that means the Tampa Bay Rays may just be the best team in the history of Major League Baseball to miss the postseason.

On the bright side, the 1993 San Francisco Giants will happily concede the title.

The Toronto Blue Jays' 2009 Slightly Premature Preview

2009-03-14T17:47:00.001-07:00

Man, just thank your stars you're not a member there are several fan bases that begin 2009 absolutely up a creek. The San Diego Padres and Baltimore Orioles are two that jump to mind. The Fathers figure to be atrocious outside of a handful of players—so bad that not even playing in Major League Baseball's weakest division is likely to save their season.

The Orioles are in a different boat, in a different creek, but they're in the same kind of trouble.

Baltimore's squad is much stronger than San Diego's, but the American League East is vicious and Baltimore's home nine aren't strong enough for those waters.

Unfortunately, it's time to add a third team to that imperiled duo—the Toronto Blue Jays.

Their boat is even stouter than Baltimore's and it's still gonna get trashed by the three-headed hydra at the top of the division.

Toronto's got a bona fide ace at the top of the rotation, some nice depth to the rotation, a rugged bullpen, two nightmares for opposing pitchers, and young kids on the way to reinforce everything. And it still won't matter.

It's not so much that Toronto won't be better than either the New York Yankees, the Boston Red Sox, or the Tampa Bay Rays. It's that about the entire, non-Canadian baseball-watching world would be floored if the Jays managed to finish aperch two of those teams.

And this is a very good team—good enough to walk away with the National League West, duke it out with the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central, fight with the Philadelphia Phillies/New York Mets atop the NL East, keep pace with the best in the AL West, and probably win the AL Central.

Yet, Toronto's season is basically over before it's started. In juxtaposition, that sentence and the preceding paragraph look psychotic, but look at the Blue Jays' roster:

Projected starting lineup

Catcher—Rod Barajas
First base—Lyle Overbay
Second base—Aaron Hill
Third base—Scott Rolen
Shortstop—John McDonald/Marco Scutaro
Left field—Adam Lind
Center field—Vernon Wells
Right field—Alex Rios
Designated hitter—Travis Snider

As a unit, that one'll make you smile despite several gaping holes.

The shortstop position is currently assigned to two guys on the wrong side of 30 who hit for no power and minimal average. Luckily, both McDonald and Scutaro figure to just be keeping the infield captain's chair warm for top prospect Brad Emaus.

The kid will turn 23 in a couple weeks and is doing pretty well thus far while getting a good look in Spring Training. The organization's No. 4 prospect according to Baseball America—20-year-old Justin Jackson—is also in camp, but he's up just for a taste of the Show.

Either guy would be a better option since there is at least upside to giving a kid some burn. I sincerely doubt either McDonald or Scutaro is going to suddenly blossom into a huge asset.

The No. 5 prospect David Cooper, who is a 22-year-old first baseman, is also up for the exhibition simply to stretch his legs with the pros. Ditto third baseman and top prospect Kevin Ahrens (20 in April).

On the flip side of that coin, the Blue Jays' Nos. 1 and 2 prospects are getting some serious playing time to mixed reviews. Snider (No. 1) is a 21-year-old outfielder and is wrecking spring pitching. J.P. Arencibia (No. 2) is a 23-year-old catcher and is getting wrecked at the moment.

The bench isn't scary, but there are some useful bats. Guys like Jose Bautista, Joe Inglett, Scutaro, and Kevin Millar should contribute in limited roles.

Starting rotation

Ace—Roy Halladay (R)
Second spot—Jesse Litsch (R)
Third spot—David Purcey (L)
Fourth spot—Scott Richmond (R)
Fifth spot—Matt Clement (R)

Again, that's a rotation that will put a grin on your mug if you root for the Blue Jays.

The fourth and fifth spot have become a bit of a question mark due to the losses of Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan. Marcum's progressing better than expected, but he was expected to miss all of 2009. McGowan was expected back in spring, but he's progressing more slowly than expected. Murphy's Law—gotta love it.

Consequently, Toronto is giving the eye to several guys in camp to start the year in the back end of the rotation.

Clement has actually looked decent thus far in the preseason and Scott Richmond impressed at times in his short '08 stint so they seem to have the inside track.

Veteran Brian Burres was salvaged from the Orioles' scrap heap so he figures to get a stab at one of the spots. Mike Maroth's there although that may be as close as he gets.

There are also three young arms who are trying to become 2009's wunderkind.

The Blue Jays' No. 3 prospect Brett Cecil is off on the right foot after two decent starts. The lefty will be 23 in July and could find himself in the rotation if someone ahead slips up or he continues to raise eyebrows.

A pair of 24-year-old lefties are also in camp as prized blue-chippers—Brad Mills has pitched well in two starts while Ricky Romero is struggling a tad.

Bullpen

Closer—B.J. Ryan (L)
Set-up—Scott Downs (L)
Set-up—Jesse Carlson (L)
Set-up—Jeremy Accardo (R)
Set-up—Brandon League (R)

Now the introduction doesn't sound so crazy, does it? This is a damn fine baseball team and still not in the same league as New York, Boston, or Tampa Bay.

The offense is led by Alex Rios and Vernon Wells.

Rios just turned 28 in February and seems set to become the monster everyone always expected him to become. For some reason, they just expected him to do it when he was still a kid, which probably happens less frequently than those same people think.

In 2008, Alex raked to the melody of a .291 average with 47 doubles, 15 home runs, 91 runs scored, 79 runs batted in, 32 stolen bases, a .337 on-base percentage, and a .798 OPS. Sure, the homers were a little low for a guy his size and with his ability.

Nobody's perfect, but that stat line is pretty close.

Wells is the other turbo engine on the offense—he hit .300 with 22 doubles, 20 HRs, 63 runs, 78 RBI, a .343 OBP, and an .840 OPS. At 30, Vernon's probably a pretty safe bet to paint a similar picture in '09.

Adam Lind is another guy to watch. He's a former uber-prospect that's been tarnished a bit by some false starts, but he started putting it together in '08. He finished within shouting distance of .300 and started to flash the power that once had everyone's blood up.

Aaron Hill casts a similar, but slightly less exciting profile. He's got less power in his smaller frame and more speed.

Lyle Overbay's an underrated asset at first base. He's never gonna mash with the typical boppers at the position, but he'll give better average than most of them and isn't totally lacking for power. Last season saw him hit .270 with his customary 30+ doubles and 15 or so big flies.

Who knows what you'll get and how often you'll get it from Scott Rolen? You can bet whatever production you get and whenever you get it, it won't be the Rolen of old. Those days are g-o-n-e.

Rod Barajas will give you decent power while donning the Tools of Ignorance and that's probably enough.

The situation only gets better as you move on to the pitching.

Roy Halladay is one of the best and most reliable pitching in the Bigs. This is your Cy Young pitcher in the AL if '08 were a normal year—in baseball's most brutal division, Doc went 20-11 with a 2.78 earned run average, a 1.05 WHIP, struck out 206 batters, walked 39, surrendered 18 homers, and threw 246 innings. Along the way, he chalked up nine complete games and two shutouts.

Only a super-human year from Cliff Lee denied Halladay the hardware so look out in 2009. Doc might be pissed. Good luck with all that.

Jesse Litsch is quietly becoming one of the game's better young pitchers. The kid is only 24 and cobbled together a find year under the same adverse situation as Halladay i.e. the AL East. Litsch went 13-9 with a 3.58 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, 99 Ks, 39 walks, 20 bombs, and 176 IP.

The long balls are a bit too many, but he's got plenty of time to improve.

David Purcey will be 27 in April and the Jays seem sold on the dude, but there isn't a ton that I see to like. To be fair, this is probably the fifth starter with all the arms healthy and there's a lot to like about him in that role.

Out in the bullpen, the story gets better.

B.J. Ryan seems to have put his injury woes behind him as he saved 32 games in 36 chances last year while posting a 2.95 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, 58 Ks, 28 walks, and only four homers in 58 IP. Not bad for a guy who was considered a risk at the start of the year.

The guys entrusted with getting the ball from the starters to Ryan were no less dazzling in '08.

Scott Downs came out of nowhere to post a 1.15 WHIP, a 1.78 ERA, 57 fans, 27 walks, and only three dongs in 70+ IP. Jesse Carlson gave Downs a run for his money, posting a 1.03 WHIP, a 2.25 ERA, 55 Ks, 21 walks, and only six home runs in 60 IP.

Like Ryan, both Downs and Carlson are southpaws. Three freaky-deakies in one 'pen—that's a nice luxury to have.

The righties weren't as sparkling, but Jeremy Accardo had some forearm issues and lost the closer's role so that may explain his drop in production. And Brandon League did manage an ERA just over 2.00 in limited action so there's reason to hope on both fronts.

As I said above, this is one of the better teams in MLB on paper heading into 2009. If Toronto happened to have landed in any other division in baseball, this would be a serious playoff contender.

The club has a stout lineup and robust pitching staff with more talent on both fronts set to arrive in the very near future.

Yep, the Toronto Blue Jays would be quite the player in five of six divisions. But they're not, they're in the American League East.

And that makes them cannon fodder for the big guns in 2009.

The Baltimore Orioles' 2009 Slightly Premature Preview

2009-03-14T12:03:00.001-07:00

This probably won't be a popular article, all the more so because a lot of baseball people are creating some irresponsible hype around the Baltimore Orioles. I say irresponsible because Oriole fans deserve better than to be grossly misguided like that.

Make no mistake about it—Baltimore is done. DOA. Forget one fork, the Os have four forks protruding from their collective corpus.

One from the New York Yankees, one from the Boston Red Sox, one from the Tampa Bay Rays, and one from the Toronto Blue Jays.

Don't point to Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Matt Wieters as reasons for hope. I'd love to have any of those three on the San Francisco Giants. You can even throw Ty Wigginton and Brian Roberts onto that list.

Shoot, Felix Pie could click to become the player many experts envisioned, Melvin Mora could have a career year, and Aubrey Huff could do the same. It won't matter (and it almost definitely won't happen).

I say that because take a look at the new starting pitching landscape in the American League East: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Joba Chamberlain, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, David Price, Roy Halladay, Jesse Litsch, and Dustin McGowan by midseason.

You might even have to add Shaun Marcum to that list if his recovery from Tommy John surgery keeps going as well as it's supposed to be going.

Every name on that list could easily throw together one of the 10 best seasons in Major League Baseball—maybe not this year, but in the very near future and quite possibly in 2009. Most of those arms are Cy Youngs or Cy Youngs-in-waiting.

Even when injuries take down some of those aces and others have off years, there will still be quite the gauntlet left. A gauntlet the Orioles must face 0ver 70 times. Ouch.

Not only that, Baltimore doesn't have much of a starting rotation with which to resist the equally rugged offenses that populate the best division in baseball.

So, call me the wet blanket. Call me the rain on Baltimore's parade. Or just call me realistic. Here's the roster:

Projected starting lineup

Catcher—Matt Wieters
First base—Aubrey Huff
Second base—Brian Roberts
Third base—Melvin Mora
Shortstop—Cesar Izturis
Left field—Felix Pie
Center field—Adam Jones
Right field—Nick Markakis
Designated hitter—Luke Scott/Ty Wigginton

For whatever reason, nobody seems to ink Wieters in as the starter—most sources list Gregg Zaun as the Os' starting backstop. I'm not buying that because the kid (23 in May) is tearing apart Spring Training pitching. That doesn't mean a ton except when it's the only MLB-esque sample on which to rely.

Even if Baltimore goes the Evan Longoria route and starts Wieters in the minors to delay arbitration, he will be the starting catcher sooner rather than later.

The rest of the lineup is pretty much set if for no other reason than Wigginton is the only legitimate starter that isn't promised a spot. Ryan Freel is the next best plug-n-play off the bench. He's a nice fall-back position because he hits for good average and steals bases, but he makes for a thin bench by himself.

Top prospects Brandon Snyder (22-year-old first baseman) and Nolan Reimold (25-year-old outfielder) are in camp. Snyder is raking; Reimold is not.

Starting rotation

Ace—Jeremy Guthrie (R)
Second spot—Koji Uehara (R)
Third spot—Chris Waters (L)
Fourth spot—Rhadames Liz (R)
Fifth spot—Rich Hill (L)

What's with the starting pitching in the DC "rivalry?"

I thought the Washington Nationals had the worst rotation in baseball, but I overlooked Jordan Zimmerman and hadn't run into this motley crew. Only the first two spots in this rotation look secure and both those guys probably wouldn't make the front end of many teams' rotations.

Guthrie is a very good pitcher and anyone who can keep a sub-4.00 earned run average in that division deserves respect, but he is not an ace. No way.

Uehara will be 34 in April, spent the most recent seasons in Japan as a reliever/starter, was never considered a dominating strikeout pitcher in his native land, and this is his first year in the States.

I guess there's a reason 60 percent of Baltimore's top 10 prospects are pitchers (according to Baseball America) because the rest of the "rotation" is a total mess.

I picked three names I recognized with a little track record, youth, and some potential. However they're the definition of place-holders.

For spots three through five, Baltimore is also considering prospects Chris Tillman (21 in April), Brian Matusz (22), Bradley Bergeson (23), and Jake Arrieta (23) as well as Adam Eaton, David Pauley, Hayden Penn, Brian Bass, and Mark Hendrickson.

The kitchen sink had already been signed.

Bullpen

Closer—George Sherrill (L)
Set-up—Chris Ray (R)
Set-up—Jim Johnson (R)
Set-up—Jamie Walker (L)
Set-up—Matt Albers (R)
Set-up—Dennis Sarfate (R)

There's really not much to say after all that.

The offense could be good if it stays healthy, but if anyone gets hurt and no youngsters step forward to surprise MLB, it's gonna be in trouble.

Nick Markakis is already a star. At 25, he's coming off a year in '08 that saw him hit .306 with 48 doubles, 20 home runs, 106 runs scored, 87 runs batted in, 10 stolen bases, a .406 on-base percentage, and an .897 OPS. At 25.

If this kid played in one of the big markets or even on a small market team that was competitive, Markakis would be a household name. He's not because he plays in Baltimore and the Orioles have the misfortune of looking up in the standings every year at New York and Boston (and now Tampa Bay).

I doubt you'll see a repeat of his last year, but Aubrey Huff was a man possessed in '08. His final line looked like this—a .304 average, 48 doubles, 32 HRs, 96 runs, 108 RBI, a .360 OBP, and a .912 OPS. He can't possibly duplicate that at 32, can he?

Brian Roberts rounds out the potent trio with a .296 average, 51 doubles, nine taters, 107 runs, 57 RBI, 40 swipes, a .378 OBP, and an .828 OPS. At 31, he's bound to start sliding soon, but 2009 probably won't be the year since he's playing for a new contract.

The rest of the lineup has a lot to like about it—Melvin Mora saw a resurgence in '08, Adam Jones started to get things figured out, Luke Scott launched 23 bombs, and Ty Wigginton brings a reliable utility bat. But it pales in comparison to the three-headed monster at the top.

Of course, it's reason to jump for joy next to the starting pitching.

There's really not too much more to say about it. The front end is weaker than most and the back end is in total disarray. This would be a bad pitching staff in most divisions—in the AL East it is by far the worst.

Let's just skip ahead to a rosier subject—the bullpen.

George Sherrill proved to be a revelation at the end of games in 2008, saving 31 games in 37 chances while fanning over a batter per inning from the left side. He also only surrendered six big flies in 53+ innings pitched.

As good as Sherrill was, Jim Johnson was probably the best arm in the 'pen. His summary from the '08 campaign is insane—a 1.19 WHIP, a 2.23 ERA, and 38 Ks against 28 walks in 68+ IP without surrendering a home run. That's right, zero dingers in 68 innings and change.

That's amazing.

If either of those two should falter, the Orioles have deposed closer Chris Ray chomping at the bit. He lost his job via ligament replacement surgery and showed some old flash in '08 so keep an eye on him.

And Jamie Walker was dynamite as a lefty fireman up until last season. Expect him to return to form and be an additional weapon.

Unfortunately, all the relief weapons in the world won't help the Baltimore Orioles in 2009. If this club toiled in any other division in baseball, they'd have at least a puncher's chance—they have more than enough offense and filth in the 'pen for that.

In a couple of baseball's weaker sets, they might even be one of the favorites despite the vulnerabilities on the starting bump.

But they're in the AL East where they must face baseball royalty on a daily basis. Against that competition, the Baltimore Orioles are destined to be the paupers of the 2009 season.

The Chicago White Sox' 2009 Slightly Premature Season Preview

2009-03-14T09:49:00.000-07:00

As I tend to do, I've saved the favorite for last. In the American League Central, that has to be the Chicago White Sox because they are the defending champions of the division. This is certainly the most wide open set of five in Major League Baseball. Depending on who's talking, every team has a true shot to take the flag.

You cannot say that about any other division in baseball—thanks to the San Diego Padres and the AL West (only has four teams).

The first preview I did was for the Cleveland Indians and I'm sticking to what I said there—the Tribe will take the AL Central and may just surprise everyone by popping up in the World Series.

However, when all else is equal, the favorite has to be the king o' the hill from the previous year. Although all four other teams in the Junior Circuit's Central division have improved and should see rebound years from crucial pieces, none has made titanic strides.

I'd say whatever margin for error the ChiSox had in 2008 is gone and they're in trouble heading into 2009. Until that's actually happened on the field, though, they're the team to beat.

And it's based on the following roster:

Projected starting lineup

Catcher—A.J. Pierzynski
First base—Paul Konerko
Second base—Chris Getz/Gordon Beckham
Third base—Josh Fields
Shortstop—Alexei Ramirez
Left field—Carlos Quentin
Center field—Jerry Owens/Dewayne Wise
Right field—Jermaine Dye
Designated hitter—Jim Thome

The White Sox have finally decided to get younger, having (apparently) made commitments to prospects Fields—26 with enormous power potential—and Owens—just turned 28 and tons of speed. I guess it's to make up with the ancient pieces in right and DHing.

Second base seems to be the only position up for grabs in Spring Training, although Ozzie Guillen is hyping Wise for some reason in the outfield.

Jayson Nix is raking in the exhibition season, but the guy couldn't hit well enough in Denver to keep his starting gig with the Colorado Rockies. That doesn't bode well.

Beckham is the White Sox top prospect according to Baseball America, but he's naturally a shortstop. Shortstop is far more difficult than second so he should be able to handle the transition fairly easily, but it's gonna take at least some time to learn the nuances.

Brent Lillibridge came over from the Atlanta Braves in the Javier Vazquez trade, but he's already amassed 23 strikeouts in 80 at-bats. Yuck. I say it's Getz (also a top prospect and at his natural spot) to open the season and Beckham eventually takes the job.

In a totally unrelated matter, can someone please explain how MLB can complain about the economy when Ben Broussard is making almost $4 million. That's outrageous.

Starting rotation

Ace—Mark Buehrle (L)
Second spot—John Danks (L)
Third spot—Gavin Floyd (R)
Fourth spot—Clayton Richard (L)
Fifth spot—Jeff Marquez (R)

The starters are actually a lot better than they look. I'm not a fan of Buehrle (partly because his last name is impossible to spell), but you can't argue with his career numbers especially coming from a southpaw. Danks (23 in April) and Floyd (26) burst on the scene last year and, while Danks has better stuff and probably a higher upside, Floyd had arguably the better season.

Richard is a 25-year-old phenom who's the No. 3 prospect in the ChiSox system. He got off to a rough start after his debut in '08, but he's a ground ball pitcher with good stuff and decent control so there's a lot to like.

The fifth spot could be a huge problem. And by huge I mean fat—Bartolo Colon fat because he was apparently the plan until another injury (mercifully) forced him down.

Now, the White Sox are giving spring starts to Jack Egbert (I've got nothing), Lance Broadway (let's hope not), and Marquez. Marquez came over from the New York Yankees and will only be 25 in May so he might be a good bet for the spot as Chicago hopes to see another Danks/Floyd-type arrival.

The No. 2 prospect, 22-year-old lefty Aaron Poreda, is also in camp. He's not getting starts and has never thrown above Double-A ball so he should start the season in the minors.

The $10 million man, Jose Contreras, is also working his way back from his Achilles' injury. Who the hell is offering these contracts?

Bullpen

Closer—Bobby Jenks (R)
Set-up—Octavio Dotel (R)
Set-up—Matt Thornton (L)
Set-up—Scott Linebrink (R)
Set-up—Mike MacDougal (R)

You can see why baseball observers are looking for a good race out of the AL Central. The defending champs' armor looks about as stout as a chain link fence.

On offense, they've really only got three sincerely frightening bats—Jermaine Dye, Carlos Quentin, and Alexei Ramirez.

Dye is the eldest of the trio at 35, but his '08 campaign was actually better than his career average so the years don't seem to bother him much. He hit .292 with 41 doubles, 34 home runs, 96 runs scored, 96 runs batted in, a .344 on-base percentage, and an .885 OPS. Jermaine is quickly losing his legs in the outfield and that won't matter in the slightest if he keeps scorching like that.

Quentin was well on his way to the AL Most Valuable Player award before ending his own chances with that freak-but-stupid injury. He'll turn 27 in August so there's no reason to believe he won't rebound from the wrist ding and continue to produce up to his vast potential, as he did in '08—a .288 average, 26 doubles, 36 HRs, 96 runs, 100 RBI, a .394 OBP, and a .965 OPS in only 480 ABs.

Ramirez burst on the scene much like Quentin except with less power and more speed—a .290 average with 22 doubles, 21 bombs, 65 runs, 77 RBI, 13 stolen bases, a .317 OBP, and a .792 OPS. In only his first season at the age of 27, the Cuban Missile should build on those numbers when given the starting job from day one.

But that's where the really good news ends with the bats.

Jim Thome is still good for 30+ big flies, but his days of contributing elsewhere are over. Paul Konerko will give you less power with a bit more average and A.J. Pierzynski gives even less power with even more average (but still not north of .300).

And we've covered the three youngsters at the other positions since they are all potential with not much history to project.

If somebody goes down, Chicago's in trouble because the bench is even less proven and lacks the potential. There's nobody even worth discussing (having already mentioned Broussard's salary).

Luckily for the Pale Hose, the pitching staff is in much better shape otherwise even its status as defending AL Central champs wouldn't earn Chicago the benefit of my doubt.

Nobody in the starting rotation will dominate you with stuff, but the front three—Mark Buehrle, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd—all keep their WHIPs right around 1.30 and earned run averages under 4.00. That means they miss their share of bats and don't walk too many batters.

And that is the recipe for success for any pitcher. Doubly so for one working in the more potent Junior Circuit. Even the homer totals aren't too bad considering the home park isn't a pitcher's haven.

The back-end of the rotation is in limbo, but that's the case for most teams and Chicago's got an ace or two up its sleeve in the young prospects Clayton Richard and Aaron Poreda.

The bullpen is rock solid, led by one of the better closers in baseball.

Bobby Jenks blew only four saves in 34 chances last season while holding opponents to a WHIP of 1.10, ERA of 2.63, and surrendering only three taters in 61+ innings. His Ks were way down (38) due to back issues, but even that speaks to Jenks' effectiveness.

Laboring with an injury that obviously cost him a lot of oomph off his heater, the guy still outperformed most closers in the game. Jenks is a keeper.

And, as is usually the case with great closers, the bridge to him is sturdy as all get-out.

Matt Thornton is dynamite for the South Siders as a southpaw—1.00 WHIP, 2.67 ERA, and 77 whiffs against only 19 walks in 67+ innings. To boot, the lefty only suffered five ding-dongs.

Octavio Dotel is meant to be a set-up guy. He doesn't have the mentality requisite to shut the door, but he's got it in spades to be the guy before the guy—1.21 WHIP, 3.76 ERA, 92 Ks against 29 walks in 67 innings pitched, and 12 HRs.

Scott Linebrink, Mike MacDougal, and even a guy like D.J. Carrasco all keep guys off base and/or runs off the board while possessing strikeout stuff.

When all is said and done, this is a team that fits into the San Francisco Giant mold of using pitching to ride into contention. The problem, of course, is the Chicago White Sox don't play in the National League West. They don't even play in the National League.

And that's a problem.

Even with a very good pitching staff, you're probably gonna have to score four or five runs to win most nights in the Junior Circuit. That's what the designated hitter does for you—ups the offensive ante while making life harder on the hurlers.

If Jermaine Dye or Carlos Guillen goes down for an extended period, if the youngsters at key positions don't pan out, or (really) if any offensive expectations aren't met, four to five runs will be a lot to ask from what's left.

If more than one of those things happen, stick a fork in 'em because the ChiSox will be done.

Too bad, because that staff could do some damage with the right offense.

The Detroit TIgers' 2009 Slightly Premature Season Preview

2009-03-13T09:37:00.000-07:00

In the interest of full disclosure, Justin Verlander and Gary Sheffield destroyed my fantasy team last year. Verlander was the second pitcher I drafted (after Aaron Harang—ouch) and all I needed from Sheff was one decent run at the end of the season to take my opening round playoff series. Swing-and-a-miss on both accounts.

Consequently, the residual bitterness may creep into this preview of their Detroit Tigers. Don't say I didn't warn you.

Of course, this is the franchise my mother grew up rooting for—she still has an autographed Al Kaline baseball card—so the two will probably cancel each other out.

With that out of the way, let's turn to an amazingly talented team that's about as deep as a kiddie pool.

Good lord, if the baseball gods send a rash of injuries Detroit's way, it's lights out and the Kansas City Royals needn't worry about finishing in last place.

With the offseason acquisition of Edwin Jackson and Brandon Lyon, the pitching staff is actually the deepest part of the Tiggers for a change. The problem there is the depth is in name only i.e. none of the options are reliable by Major League Baseball standards.

On the other hand, if Detroit's regulars can stay relatively healthy, this could very well be the team to emerge from the cluttered American League Central.

Take a look-see at how the Opening Day roster should go:

Projected starting lineup

Catcher—Gerald Laird
First base—Miguel Cabrera
Second base—Placido Polanco
Third base—Brandon Inge
Shortstop—Adam Everett
Left field—Carlos Guillen
Center field—Curtis Granderson
Right field—Magglio Ordonez
Designated hitter—Gary Sheffield/Marcus Thames

There is some serious punch in those bats although the duo up on the left side of the infield is a tad underwhelming. Everett is the definition of fundamentally sound with some plus speed to make him at least above average. Inge brings more power, less defense, and relatively no plate discipline.

But Detroit's lack of depth is painfully evident on offense. With the exception of the sitting platooner from Sheff/Thames, there's almost nothing on the bench.

The 26-year-old Jeff Larish is in camp for Spring Training and hitting decently so the Tiggers may have a better option at third soon and another capable bat on the bench. Other than that, though, the situation is grim.

Ramon Santiago is hitting well in exhibition, so there's that.

Starting rotation

Ace—Justin Verlander (R)
Second spot—Jeremy Bonderman (R)
Third spot—Armando Galarraga (R)
Fourth spot—Edwin Jackson (R)
Fifth spot—Zach Miner (R)/Nate Robertson (L)/Dontrelle Willis (L)

As I said in the intro, the depth is a little better here if only because there are options that have shown potential—no matter how fleeting or inconsistent. Unfortunately, the starters are younger and less likely to succumb to injury than their offensive counterparts so the pseudo-depth might not come into play.

The fifth starter seems to be Miner's right now based on spring starts, but the Tigers' No. 1 prospect—20-year-old righty Rick Porcello—has gotten the ball once in camp as has Robertson.

Ryan Perry, Detroit's No. 2 prospect, is a 22-year-old lefty and he's also with the Big Club for Spring Training. He's seeing work out of the 'pen.

Willis may be irredeemable at this point, but you never know when a guy is going to hop back on the tracks with as little warning as his derailment.

Bullpen

Closer—Brandon Lyon (R)
Set-up—Joel Zumaya (R)
Set-up—Fernando Rodney (R)
Set-up—Freddy Dolsi (R)
Set-up—Clay Rapada (L)

Pitching was Detroit's downfall in 2008 so it makes sense that they spent the winter addressing it. What doesn't make sense are the answers—Brandon Lyon and Edwin Jackson aren't exactly magical elixirs.

But let's deal with the offense first.

You could call this team the Four Horsemen and some hangers-on because this offense will run as hot as Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson, and Carlos Guillen. The rest of the maple and ash is along for the ride.

Cabrera's debut in Detroit got mixed reviews, but that's probably more a function of improbable expectations because his final '08 line was nice—a .292 average, 36 doubles, 37 home runs, 85 runs scored, 127 runs batted in, a .349 on-base percentage, and an .887 OPS. Most importantly, his much-ballyhooed weight didn't cause much of a health problem as he saw 160 games and 600+ at-bats.

If that's what an adjustment year—it was his first year in the AL—from a guy who'll be 26 in April, 2009 could be scary.

Ordonez is almost as statistically impressive as Miguel, but he's 35 so there's reason to believe his numbers may decline whereas Cabrera's are probably heading the other direction. Still, Magglio put up a stellar '08 campaign—a .317 average with 32 doubles, 21 HRs, 72 runs, 103 RBI, a .376 OBP, and an .869 OPS.

Even a reasonable decline would continue to produce great numbers.

Granderson took a mini-step backwards or, at best, laterally in '08. Many expected a scintillating addition to his 2007 year and it never came—a .280 average with 26 doubles, 13 triples, 22 bombs, 112 runs, 66 RBI, 12 stolen bases, a .365 OBP, and an .858 OPS. Those are gaudy numbers almost identical to his 2007 work and consider they came after a hand injury.

Due to turn 28 in several days, Curtis may deliver on that break-out season if the hand is finally back to 100 percent.

There's more reason for concern with Guillen. He hit .286 with 29 doubles, 10 big flies, 68 runs, 54 RBI, a .376 OBP, and an .811 OPS in 2008 while struggling with health all year. The injury bug is one reason for concern because Carlos is 33. But another reason is his move to first base, then the outfield.

That shows Detroit's equally and seriously concerned about the problem and his numbers—once pure gravy from a shortstop—begin to look pedestrian against the stouter production from corner infielders and outfielders.

The other guys won't kill you with average, but they're not gonna contribute any power and only a little speed.

Adam Everett and Brandon Inge got the once-over above so let's skip to Gerald Laird, Placido Polanco, Gary Sheffield, and Marcus Thames.

Laird, Sheff, and Thames all give you essentially the same thing—power and that's about it. Laird gives the least, but he's a catcher so that's understandable plus his is the best average. Thames mashed 25 dingers in just over 300 ABs, but he simply can't hit righties. Sheffield is old. And angry.

Polanco is like the fifth Beatle to the four primary bats in this lineup. He'll give you an average right around .300 and almost never fan, but his power is negligible.

That's it. There is no bench to speak of—a bunch of young kids who haven't done much or anything in the Show and aren't really tearing up Spring Training so they don't rate.

As for the pitching, the acquisitions should help as should a return to form from Justin Verlander.

If the Tigers can get Verlander back in shape and Jeremy Bonderman's own health issues are a thing of the past, the rotation could be pretty formidable.

Verlander was on his way to becoming a safe bet for 200+ Ks, 18 wins, and a sub-4.00 ERA while pitching in the AL before 2008 disrupted everything. At only 26, there's no reason to believe last year was anything more than a bump in the road to stardom.

Bonderman comes with a little more reason to pause. His upside was never as high as Verlander's and blood clots are a tricky thing.

However, Armando Galarraga showed the capacity to carry the front end of a rotation while his mates were getting things sorted out last year. The 27-year-old raised eyebrows with a 1.19 WHIP and 3.73 ERA in his first full year as a starter.

The remainder doesn't glitter, but Jackson was once a sought-after prospect and is only 25. He could blossom at any time or peter out. The fifth starter will just have to keep it under five and hope the offense has a good day until the prospects get the nod.

Out in the bullpen, it's seems like the same story for years—just you wait for Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney to mature into their talent. Well, Zumaya's still only 24, but he's shown much more growth in the trainer's room than on the field. His K per inning ration is nice...and useless if he can't stay on the hill.

Rodney showed a bit more consistency and actually managed to hold the closer's role for a while in '08, but he's 32 on the 18th so his days of maturing should be over.

Brandon Lyon is everyone's favorite stop-gap closer. I said it last year and I'll say it again this year—it's only a matter of time before he loses the job. He simply doesn't have enough stuff to last 162 games as a closer. The minuscule margin for error will get to him just as it has every other time.

Aside from those three guys, the 'pen is underwhelming and that's a problem because neither Lyon, Zumaya, nor Rodney is left-handed. That means Bobby Seay and Clay Rapada are Detroit's top options for a tough lefty at the plate.

And that means a problem when your division includes Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jim Thome, Grady Sizemore, and the possibility of Alex Gordon.

Like the other teams in the American League Central, the Detroit Tigers have a solid nucleus of talent in all three facets. The offense and starting pitching has proven commodities upon which it can rely and the bullpen has serious upside.

Unfortunately, there isn't a whole lot surrounding those nuclei and the most susceptible to injury/decline (the offense) is paper thin.

No depth on offense and an unproven bullpen doesn't sound like recipe for success, but stranger things have happened. If it works out for the Detroit Tigers, they could win the division and that makes them just as dangerous as the rest of clubs.

But Detroit's odds look longer than the rest from where I sit.

It's virtually impossible to resist the injury bug for an entire baseball season and that's very bad news for a club whose success is predicated upon health.

The Minnesota Twins' 2009 Slightly Premature Season Preview

2009-03-12T09:59:00.000-07:00

They are in every sport—the teams that are good almost every year, but they get no love because they're about as exciting as a presidential campaign debate (dodge, dodge, stump speech, buzz word, interrupt, and repeat). In the National Basketball Association, the San Antonio Spurs have perfected the art.

In the National Football League, you could argue it's the Carolina Panthers or the Philadelphia Eagles—just remember Philly, I have a sincere attachment to the Phillies.

In Major League Baseball, it is—without a doubt—the Minnesota Twins.

Somehow, the Oakland Athletics managed to turn themselves into the sexy small ball team that everyone yaps about. Well, not somehow—it was obviously Michael Lewis' Moneyball that did the trick. The point is that the Twinkies have arguably lived the book's ethos to truer and better results, yet find themselves lost in the shuffle.

On an almost annual basis, Minnesota manages to cobble together a significant amount of youth and a pitching pipeline that seems infinite under Ron Gardenhire to fantastic results. The Twins under Gardenhire's stewardship have been nothing short of astonishing.

All the more so because the club rarely outspends anyone save five or six of MLB's biggest penny pinchers.

Using the above recipe, the Twinkies grabbed the American League Central flag in 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2006. They finished second in last year and third in 2005 and 2007.

Consider how many extra division titles the New York Yankees have secured over that span while handing Minnesota's entire payroll to four or five players. Granted, the AL East is substantially harder to win.

I say it's still pretty impressive.

This year should be no different. Although I wouldn't pick them to take the division and the AL Central might be tougher in 2009 than people think, Minnesota should be just as competitive as ever using that tried and true formula.

Here's how the Twinkies should hit Opening Day:

Projected starting lineup

Catcher—Joe Mauer
First base—Justin Morneau
Second base—Alexi Casilla/Brendan Harris
Third base—Joe Crede
Shortstop—Nick Punto
Left field—Delmon Young
Center field—Carlos Gomez
Right field—Denard Span
Designated hitter—Michael Cuddyer/Jason Kubel

Mauer's back/kidney problems are old news at this point. Unfortunately for Minnesota, that's only because it's been the talk of the baseball world (for good reason) and not because Mauer's physically in the clear. If he can't go, it barely needs to be said that the Twins have a huge problem.

The acquisition of Crede to play third—a position woefully undermanned in recent years—will help soften the blow, but not enough.

Top catching prospect Wilson Ramos is in camp for Spring Training and hitting pretty well in a smallish sample size, but he'll only be 22 in August and figures to start in Double-A ball. The same can be said of top third base prospect Danny Valencia except he's 24 and getting more at-bats in spring.

Other than that, the bench should be alright with two of the four platooners from above plus Brian Buscher.

Somebody named Dustin Martin is torching spring pitching at the moment and Gardenhire's kid, Toby, is with the Big Club as well.

Starting rotation

Ace—Francisco Liriano (L)
Second spot—Scott Baker (R)
Third spot—Kevin Slowey (R)
Fourth spot—Nick Blackburn (R)
Fifth spot—Glen Perkins (L)

For some reason, Baker seems to be the consensus ace and Opening Day starter. I guess that's to protect Liriano's general health at the tender age of 25 because there's no way his is not the best arm in this rotation. And it's a good rotation.

Even to be in the discussion with Liriano means Baker's got the goods. Slowey will be 25 in May and could be even better than Baker (who is 27). Blackburn (also 27) has more pedestrian stuff than his mates, but so do most No. 4 starters.

Perkins went 12-4 in 2008 and I have no idea how. But he's a fifth starter and Minnesota always has options there.

Five of its top 10 prospects according to Baseball America are pitchers. Kevin Mulvey (24 in May), Jose Mijares (24), and Rob Delaney (24) are all promising youngsters getting some throws in exhibition. However, no one is seeing any starts and the lefty Mijares seems to be headed for the bullpen for the moment so Perkins is the man for now.

Bullpen

Closer—Joe Nathan (R)
Set-up—Jesse Crain (R)
Set-up—Craig Breslow (L)
Set-up—Jose Mijares (L)
Set-up—Luis Ayala (R)

There you have it—nothing that's gonna set your heart racing, but a structurally sound baseball team built to win now and for the future. What more could you ask for?

The offense isn't putting up seven or eight runs a night, but it's never been Minnesota's modus operandi to overwhelm you by plating runner after runner. Far from it in fact—this year marks a potentially explosive year by the Twinkies' noble-gas standards.

Of course, it's all predicated on a healthy set of sweet-swingers from the left side—Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau (ironically, they're both righties when it comes to throwing throw).

Mauer hit .328 with 31 doubles, nine home runs, 98 runs scored, 85 RBI, a .413 on-base percentage, and an .864 OPS. In addition, he struck out only 50 times in 436 ABs, he'll only be 26 in April, and he's a catcher.

I won't try to tell you how valuable that is because I can't in a column devoted to other things, but it's special.

Morneau is only slightly less impressive—a .300 average with 47 doubles, 23 HRs, 97 runs, 129 RBI, a .374 OBP, and an .873 OPS in 2008. You could argue those numbers are better, but Justin's 28 in May and plays first base so I'd still take Mauer. No shame there.

Without those two big bats, this offense would be pretty anemic.

Alexi Casilla, Nick Punto, and Brendan Harris are all speed guys who can hit for decent average. Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer (now that he's healthy) offer 20+ bombs with decent average, but are streaky.

Joe Crede is a total question mark—if he rebounds to full form, he could give you a .280 average with 30 dingers. Or he could play in 40 games and be a total void.

Denard Span and Carlos Gomez are both youngsters with speed. The problem is that Gomez has more of it, but Span gets on base far more frequently. Delmon Young is still only 23, but patience seems to be wearing thin on the talented outfielder—his 2008 was OK, but not even close to what's expected of the kid.

Enough about the offense, though. As I said and everyone knows, the Minnesota Twins are built around their pitching.

The starting rotation's already gotten some run, but a couple last things need to be thrown in about Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey. People know about Francisco Liriano because of his breakout rookie campaign and subsequent arm injury, but don't ignore the other guys at the front end.

In 2008, Baker chucked 172+ innings in the American League with its designated hitter. He registered a 1.18 WHIP, a 3.45 earned run average, and whiffed 141 batters while walking just 42. Furthermore, he surrendered 20 taters so there's room for improvement.

This year's No. 3, Slowey was only slightly less confounding than Baker in '08. He hurled to the tune of 160+ IP, a 1.15 WHIP, a 3.99 ERA, 123 Ks to 24 walks, and allowed 22 homers. He tallied three complete games and two shutouts for good measure.

Liriano rightly gets his share of the hype, but his young front end running mates aren't too shabby, either.

Do I really need to get into the bullpen?

Depending on whom you ask, Joe Nathan has been the best closer in Major League Baseball for the last several years although you can make the same argument for Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon, and (soon) Joakim Soria.

His last campaign was no different despite his 34 years—39 saves in 45 chances, 74 Ks against 18 walks in 67+ innings with only five home runs allowed, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 1.33 ERA. Those blown saves were uncharacteristically high and, even so, the numbers are stellar.

The rest of the 'pen doesn't get the recognition that the All-Star closer does, but it's filthy and getting filthier as the young pitching prospects get their trial by fire via relief.

This year, Jose Mijares joins the party for the full year. After making his debut late in '08, the lefty tossed 10+ innings and tallied a 0.29 WHIP, 0.87 ERA, five Ks, and zero walks. Add his potent arm to an already stout crew led by Jesse Crain and fellow southpaw Craig Beslow (0.98 WHIP i 38+ IP for Minnesota last year).

The AL Central looks to be wide open in 2009.

Both the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers got sync'd up by the end of 2008. Both are expected to carry that momentum into the new season and ride it into contention.

The Chicago White Sox are the defending champs and nobody sees any reason to doubt them despite several key losses in the offseason. And hope springs eternal for the Kansas City Royals.

Well, count the Minnesota Twins amongst the group as well.

This is a club with enough hitting and more than enough hitting to make life miserable for just about any team in baseball. And that means they've got enough to take yet another division crown.

The Kansas City Royals' 2009 Slightly Premature Season Preview

2009-03-11T19:57:00.000-07:00

The poor, poor Kansas City Royals.

They are Exhibit A for anyone hoping to prove the ill-effects of one sports giant basically controlling the primary storylines circulating around a particular professional league. This is a team that has managed to finish above .500 once—ONCE—since Major League Baseball went to three divisions following the 1993 season.

In 2003, Kansas City finished 83-79 in third place under fiery Tony Pena. That's it. In 16 years.

And the exact same thing happened in 2004 as is happening heading into 2009. See, KC won 75 games in 2008—that ain't 83 (or 81), but it passes for hope in Kauffman Stadium.

For some reason, every time the Royals get close to respectability, the 800-lb gorilla (cough, ESPN) starts hyping them as the sexy sleeper. It hammers the point until everyone across the baseball landscape is parroting it as if it's gospel and—lo and behold—the woebegone franchise crumbles under expectations that no other moribund sap seems to suffer.

I just listened to Karl Ravich and Eric Young sell Kansas City's starting pitching as better than that of the Cincinnati Reds...and it's spread to FOX Sports where Dayn Perry says they are legitimate contenders.

Honestly, did the Royal ownership cross the conglomerate at some point? Did the fans? What has the organization and its followers done to deserve this?

Because the sad thing is, if Kansas City could fly under the cover of darkness for the first half of the year, all this sleeper talk might've actually panned out. The Royals have some nice, young pieces that could really find a stride if given the chance.

But that chance is gone—seared away by the spotlight. Check the roster:

Projected starting lineup

Catcher—Miguel Olivo
First base—Mike Jacobs
Second base–Alberto Callaspo
Third base—Alex Gordon
Shortstop—Mike Aviles
Left field—David DeJesus
Center field—Coco Crisp
Right field—Jose Guillen
Designated hitter—Billy Butler

There don't seem to be many starting competitions heading into Spring Training. Olivo—who's having a nice World Baseball Classic—apparently has locked down the catching job although John Buck is raking so far in exhibition. Jacobs historically struggles against southpaws so look for Ryan Shealy to pick up some at-bats either for Jacobs or at DH (shifting Butler to first).

As for the bench, well there's Mark Teahen and not much else. But this is Kansas freakin' City here, what did you expect?

Starting rotation

Ace—Gil Meche (R)
Second spot—Zach Greinke (R)
Third spot—Brian Bannister (R)
Fourth spot—Kyle Davies (R)
Fifth spot—Luke Hochevar (R)

To say the margin for error here is razor thin would be understating the situation.

If any of those guys goes down or has an even rougher start than is to be expected, dear me. The Royals are actually giving spring starts to Horacio Ramirez at the moment. Somebody named Heath Phillips is also getting a couple kicks on his tires.

There's even been a Brandon Duckworth sighting.

What's even stranger is that only 22-year-old Daniel Cortes and 24-year-old Carlos Rosa are in camp and neither has gotten a start yet. Baseball America lists seven of the Royals' top 10 prospects as pitchers, the starting rotation is skin-deep, and five blue-chippers sit at home.

Hey, maybe they're not ready—but what's the harm in giving them some burn in Spring Training? The starters need help so why not see if the organization has it internally?

Forget it. Let's just turn the page.

Bullpen

Closer—Joakim Soria (R)
Set-up—Juan Cruz (R)
Set-up—Kyle Farnsworth (R)
Set-up—Ron Mahay (L)
Set-up—Robinson Tejada (R)

See what I mean?

There are things to like about this club and the American League Central isn't the most robust of divisions, but let's stay calm here. It's not the National League West—the Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, and Minnesota Twins (if Joe Mauer gets right) all have sincere reason to enter '09 with the swagger of a real McCoy contender.

If KC could sneak up on teams for a while, giving their youngsters a chance to find their sea legs, they could be in business. That's not happening.

On offense, the jig is up on guys like Mike Aviles—he hit .325 with 27 doubles, 10 home runs, 68 runs scored, 51 runs batted in, a .354 on-base percentage, and an .833 OPS in the first 419 at-bats of his Big League career. At 28 and with only a year of professional shortstop under his belt, he should be a sleeper.

Except Aviles can't be one since he's a "popular sleeper." That phrase might drive you insane if you think about it for too long so just let it go.

Part of the reason Alex Gordon's struggled to deliver on his potential may be because every single damn year is the year he WILL break out. That's a whole lotta pressure on top of a 25-year-old kid who is trying to learn one of the most difficult positions in the game.

His 2008 wasn't bad—.260, 35 doubles, 16 HRs, 72 runs, 59 RBI, .351 OBP, and .783 OPS. Those power numbers are low for the hot corner and the average needs a bump, but the OBP is good and he's still got plenty of time to realize his full talent.

But it would help if the hype machine could slow its roll.

Billy Butler's the other guy that deservedly has a buzz around him. He's lost some extra weight from last season, which should help him improve on a pretty solid line—.275, 22 doubles, 11 HRs, 44 runs, 55 RBI, .324 OBP, and .724 OPS. Perhaps most impressive is that he only struck out 57 times in 443 ABs.

That's a pretty firm grasp of the strikezone for a kid who'll be 23 in April.

The rest of the offense is thoroughly unexciting.

Miguel Olivo is your run-o'-the-mill MLB catcher. Complete with yawns—actually, that's too harsh on a guy who hit 12 home runs and stole seven bases in 306 ABs—but he still won't keep you up late into the night.

Alberto Callaspo's ceiling is probably an average around .300 with some speed if he can figure out the basepaths. David DeJesus is a nifty little player who'll chip in a little bit of everything, a little bit better than average—he's basically an AL version of Randy Winn.

Coco Crisp's best days never saw him hit over .300 or launch more than 16 taters or swipe more than 28 bases. If he can hit all those career highs, it'd be a nice year and a fantastic one for Coco. Still not incredible stuff.

Mike Jacobs and Jose Guillen are both severely flawed, seriously powerful hitters. Jacobs hit 32 bombs in '09 while registering an average under .250 and an OBP under .300. Guillen managed to rake it at .264 with an OBP right at .300, but those gaudy numbers cost him some power—only 20 homers. Both threatened 100 RBI.

Although some of it is ho-hum, the offense has a little giddy-up to it. Unfortunately, this is the Show and the name of the 162-game season is pitching.

As I said above, the starting rotation is thin. We're talking Tara-Reid-skinny.

Gil Meche and Zack Greinke are both coming off strong finishes to 2008. Meche is pretty reliable for 200+ innings pitched, 150+ Ks, and an earned run average right around 4.00. Those are good numbers for an AL pitcher. Greinke has yet to really find his consistency, but he'll be the ace once he does—the dude's got oodles of ability at only 25.

The rest of the rotation? Uh, it's at the bottom of that cliff over there.

Brian Bannister is crafty—so crafty he can usually get through the order once unscathed. Maybe even twice. The third time? It's nauseatingly like batting practice. The guy just doesn't miss too many bats—a 5.76 ERA, .294 batting average against, and 1.49 WHIP with 29 bombs in 182+ IP last year.

Luke Hochevar seems like a taller, younger version of Bannister. Neither of those seem to be changing the results too much.

Kyle Davies has better stuff, but he's wilder and still isn't exactly electric. And there's no one else. Regardless of who's getting starts in Spring Training. If Horacio Ramirez is in the running, there's no one else.

Fortunately, the pitching situation isn't totally scorched earth. In fact, the bullpen is downright filthy.

I was one of those fantasy geniuses who grabbed both Manny Corpas and Joakim Soria off the waiver wire in 2007. Heading into 2008, I only wanted one and Corpas was obviously the safer bet of the two.

Ahem.

Soria barely got scored on last year and that wasn't even his most impressive feat—42 saves in 45 chances (or a save 93 percent of the time), 66 Ks in 67+ IP, five homers allowed, a 1.60 ERA, and an 0.86 WHIP. In his career, Soria has 59 saves in 66 chances (89 percent), 141 Ks in 136+ IP, eight homers allowed, a 2.05 ERA, and an 0.90 WHIP.

You could argue he was the best closer in baseball last year. You'd get some vigorous dissent, but it wouldn't be a crazy proclamation.

The rest of the 'pen looks just as nasty.

Kyle Farnsworth throws gas and should settle back down now that he's out of the limelight. Juan Cruz is gross as in 71 whiffs, 31 walks, and 51+ IP—most of the time it's good gross, but there are bad times in there, too.

Ron Mahay, Robinson Tejada, John Bale (another lefty), Joel Peralta, and Lenny DiNardo (yet another lefty) are all viable options in the middle innings.

Given a chance, the fragile psyches in the rotation and on the field might have gelled and found a collective resolve that could've lasted through the second half of the season. There's enough raw talent to make such a notion plausible.

There's a seemingly solid foundation on offense, the starting pitching does have two apparently reliable guys at the front, and the bullpen can bludgeon opponents into submission. But there's too many weak spots to survive if everyone seems the Kansas City Royals coming.

For whatever reason, that mean old gorilla likes to make sure KC doesn't slide under anyone's radar. Mission accomplished in 2009.

The Los Angeles Angels' 2009 Slightly Premature Season Preview

2009-03-11T07:22:00.000-07:00

For the last preview in the American League West, I saved the favorites heading into 2009: the Los Angeles Angels. I say 'favorite,' but never has an incumbent—fresh off a 21-game coast to the division flag—worn the mantle while being supported by wobblier legs.

Consider the five player transactions from this winter that figure to make the biggest impact on the new Major League Baseball season:

1. CC Sabathia inks with the New York Yankees.
2. Mark Teixeira inks with the Yankees.
3. The Oakland Athletics trade for Matt Holliday.
4. Manny Ramirez re-signs with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
5. Francisco Rodriguez signs with the New York Mets.

Anything jump out at you?

Numbers 2-4 all directly weaken the Angels. Teixeira and K-Rod obviously hurt because they were significant pieces to the team in '08. Holliday stings because that's a big bat going to a division rival. And Manny makes the crosstown (it's a big town) rival an even sexier draw—thus giving back a significant bit of whatever marketshare the Halos had managed to wrestle away from the Bums.

Okay, Manny's a stretch—work with me, folks.

Despite all that carnage, the Junior Circuit club from LA is still the top dog heading into the '09 campaign. But Oakland, the Seattle Mariners, and the Texas Rangers have all gotten stronger while the Angels were getting weaker so don't be surprised if there's a new hound at the top of the heap when the dust settles.

Here is Los Angeles' roster:

Projected starting lineup

Catcher—Mike Napoli
First base—Kendry Morales
Second base—Howie Kendrick
Third base—Chone Figgins
Shortstop—Erick Aybar
Left field—Bobby Abreu
Center field—Torii Hunter
Right field—Vladimir Guerrero
Designated hitter—Juan Rivera

Gary Matthews Jr. will see time in the outfield as well as designated hitter. Other than that, the lineup appears to be set. Maicer Izturis has a slick glove so he can fill in when the inevitable injury strikes one of the fragile guys up the middle. Former uber-prospect Brandon Wood is also in the mix for third base and/or short, but he hasn't hit enough at the pro level to warrant a starting gig at this point (although he's currently scalding exhibition pitching).

Freddy Sandoval is in camp and I've never heard much about the 26-year-old third sacker, but he sure looked good for Mexico in the World Baseball Classic. If the Angels can somehow figure to convince the guy he's facing South Africa every night, they might have a permanent answer at the hot corner.

Jeff Mathis and Reggie Willits should round out the bench.

Starting rotation

Ace—John Lackey (R)
Second spot—Jered Weaver (R)
Third spot—Joe Saunders (L)
Fourth spot—Dustin Moseley (R)
Fifth spot—Nick Adenhart (R)

The news that Ervin Santana will open the season on the shelf is tough. With him occupying the second spot in the rotation, the entire picture looks a lot tidier. Even with him down, though, this ain't too ugly. And Kelvim Escobar is slowly working his way back from shoulder surgery that cost the 2007 18-game winner all of 2008.

If he can regain that form when he's slated to rejoin the rotation (May), that would be about the same time the Halos expect Santana to take the bump. Getting those two guys back would make the rotation all the more formidable.

In the meantime, Los Angeles needs to keep the duct tape at the ready.

Saunders is not gonna win 17 games again this year and the lefty's apparently experiencing discomfort in his left shoulder. Moseley is trouble if they need him for more than a month and Adenhart—though the Angels' top prospect and only 23 in August—got shelled in his audition last season.

To that end, LA has top prospects Jordan Walden (21), Sean O'Sullivan (21), Anthony Ortega (24 in August), and Kevin Jepsen (25 in July) in camp although I can't find any record of Ortega making a spring appearance and Jepsen seems to be getting a trial in the bullpen.

Bullpen

Closer—Brian Fuentes (L)
Set-up—Scot Shields (R)
Set-up—Jose Arredondo (R)
Set-up—Justin Speier (R)
Set-up—Francisco Rodriguez (R)

Can you believe that? The Angels trade one Francisco Rodriguez and have another waiting to take his spot. That spot in the 'pen probably won't be his and lefty Darren Oliver should be up there, but I had to include the faux K-Rod.

As I said at the outset, Los Angeles lost a lot of talent in the offseason. What I didn't say, or maybe glossed over, is that they still have a ton of it left.

On offense, Mike Napoli is a force of nature that nature forced down in 2008. Despite injury problems limiting him to only 227 at-bats, he hit .273 with nine doubles, 20 home runs, 39 runs scored, 49 runs batted in, a .374 on-base percentage, and a .960 OPS. He even threw in seven stolen bases for good measure.

Incidentally, the Angels run a lot.

All of baseball was once high on Kendry Morales, but some of the bloom is off the rose heading into '09. The kid will turn 26 in June and has yet to take a full run at the starting job so that might be a little unfair. But, still, skepticism abounds.

Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, and Chone Figgins might as well be the same person.

Figgins represents one end of that player's spectrum—he's the oldest, the best base stealer, and most versatile. Kendrick represents the other—he's the frailest, the best hitter, and has youth on his side (although Aybar is actually several months younger). Aybar falls somewhere in the middle, but the point is these guys give you average and speed to varying degrees.

That's it.

To be honest, Bobby Abreu and Vladimir Guerrero are pretty similar as well—Abreu's a poor man's version of Bad Vlad except he's older and more expensive.

In the Yankees' order last year, Abreu hit .296 with 39 doubles, 20 HRs, 100 runs, 100 RBI, 22 swipes, a .371 OBP, and an .843 OPS. Those numbers are all pretty dead on his career averages so, at 35 (happy birthday Bobby), he's showing no signs of slowing down.

Vlad put up a .303 average with 21 doubles, 27 bombs, 85 runs, 91 RBI, a .365 OBP, and an .886 OPS in 2008. Those numbers are a bit off Guerrero's averages and he also announced he's a year older than previously believed so a couple small caution flares were sent up.

Still, those are impressive stats and eclipse those put up by most players so no sweat.

Torii Hunter rounds out the relevant starters although Juan Rivera provides significant upside if he can find his 2007 stroke (he showed signs of doing so towards the end of '08).

Hunter had another fine year in '08 and played his usual stellar defense in center field. He hit .278 with 37 doubles, 21 bombs, 85 runs scored, 78 RBI, 19 SBs, a .344 OBP, and an .810 OPS. Solid work all around and pretty consistent with his resume so advancing age doesn't seem to be slowing Torii, either.

The Angels have to feel pretty comfortable about the situation in the batter's box and out in the field. The same could've been said about the starting rotation until the MASH unit showed up.

I covered it pretty thoroughly above so I'll just toss in the names Shane Loux and Matt Palmer.

Both guys are journeymen getting a look due to the ailing starters and, although Loux's off to a good start in Spring Training, neither shakes out as a long-term solution. Palmer got chewed up and spit out by our San Francisco Giant system—that rarely bodes well.

The bullpen never seems to be a problem for Mike Scioscia and 2009 doesn't look to be any different.

Even after suffering the loss of the real Francisco Rodriguez, the Angels should be in business any time they have to go to the relievers. Brian Fuentes has always looked filthy to me, but a lot of reasonable Colorado Rockie fans weren't too sad to see him go. That's enough to give you pause.

However, Los Angeles is more than a one-trick pony. Should Fuentes flounder in the new digs, the Angels can turn to closer-in-waiting Jose Arredondo. That kid is gnarly and probably the real reason LA let K-Rod walk. Unfortunately, he heard a pop in his hip recently.

That means LA could potentially be relying heavily on Scot Shields, Justin Speier, and Darren Oliver with a dash of the kid (Kevin Jepsen). There aren't too many teams in baseball that could contemplate the absence of two crucial relievers without losing much sleep.

Suffice it to say the Angels have the back of games covered.

After putting all the pieces together, the Los Angeles Angels have no reason to panic despite a number of adversarial developments since the finish of 2008. They have a solid nucleus in all three important facets of the game and shiny youth in reserve for depth/stop-gap maneuvers.

And, yet, all three division rivals have gotten considerably more dangerous while the Angels have not. They're still the favorite, but they have to be glancing over their collective shoulder.

With a couple bad breaks here and an injury or two there, the sky could cave in on Los Angeles and that Halo might become a headband.

The Seattle Mariners' 2009 Slightly Premature Season Preview

2009-03-10T19:25:00.000-07:00

To date, I've previewed all 16 National League baseball teams and three American League clubs—the Texas Rangers, Oakland Athletics, and Cleveland Indians. So far, I have yet to run across a team with a wider spectrum of potential than the Seattle Mariners.

Having taken a closer look at Seattle's roster and considering the flawed nature of the other organizations in the AL West, the Ms could finish anywhere from first to last. They could tear off damn near 100 wins or lose that same number.

If the youth on offense and the unproven arms in the bullpen click, Seattle could be a player in 2009.

If that happens and the trouble spots for the other division contenders (i.e. all three teams) become serious issues, look out—the Mariners could be the surprise of Major League Baseball.

But if that youth hits some snags in its development? If the unproven arms out in the 'pen get lit up? If the starting pitching holds in Oakland and Texas? Uh oh.

Consequently, I have absolutely no idea what to make of this team. One thing is for certain, though—the starting pitching will be crazy good if it can stay healthy. Etch that in stone.

Take a gander at the rest of the personnel:

Projected starting lineup

Catcher—Jeff Clement
First base—Russell Branyan/Chris Shelton
Second base—Jose Lopez
Third base—Adrian Beltre
Shortstop—Yuniesky Betancourt
Left field—Wladimir Balentien
Center field—Franklin Gutierrez
Right field—Ichiro Suzuki
Designated hitter—Ken Griffey Jr.

The starters tell a bit of the story as far as the youth. Betancourt is 27, Gutierrez is 26, Clement will be 26 in August, Balentien will be 25 in July, and Lopez will be 25 for the duration. Only Lopez has a job set in stone since none of the other three has delivered (yet) to a substantial degree on his baseball promise.

The youth that makes Seattle such a wild card is found in guys like top prospect Greg Halman—a 21-year-old Dutch outfield phenom who is in camp this spring and holding his own. Or Carlos Triunfel—a 19-year-old middle infield wizard who's also in camp. Or Matt Tuiasosopo—who will be 23 in May, has athleticism for miles, and is torching Spring Training at the moment.

Guys like catchers Rob Johnson and Adam Moore also confound the picture. Johnson will be 26 in July and Moore will be 25 in May—both guys are having their way with spring pitching as well.

There's also a pair of Mikes. Morse will be 27 in a couple weeks and has shown some prowess in 300 MLB at-bats. Carp will be 23 in June and is promising enough for the Mariners to have traded for him in hopes that he might be the future at first base.

Endy Chavez, Mike Sweeney, and Kenji Johjima will probably make-up part of the bench.

Starting rotation

Ace—Felix Hernandez (R)
Second spot—Erik Bedard (L)
Third spot—Jarrod Washburn (L)
Fourth spot—Carlos Silva (R)
Fifth spot—Brandon Morrow (R)

Ahhh, now that's more like it. The Mariners' starting pitching situation is pretty much good to go. Ryan Rowland-Smith saw some starts last year to underwhelming reviews. Gaby Hernandez has gotten a spring start and will only be 23 in May. Garrett Olson got beat up in '08, but that was while facing the AL East on a regular basis. Miguel Batista still has a pulse.

All four guys figure to get a look for the back-end spots, but Silva is a Scott Boras special i.e he's pulling down $8+ mil in 2009 so his 6.46 earned run average and 4-15 record from '08 will probably not be enough to knock him out of the rotation.

And Morrow is the real deal. He might just be the second or third best starter on this team by the end of the year, depending on which Bedard toes the slab this year.

Bullpen

Closer—Randy Messenger (R)
Set-up—Roy Corcoran (R)
Set-up—Cesar Jimenez (L)
Set-up—Mark Lowe (R)
Set-up—Tyler Walker (R)

Alright, the offense has pretty much been covered.

There are numerous young kids with limitless potential, an empty/nonexistent track record in the Show, and who are terrifying Spring Training so far. I don't put a whole lotta stock in the exhibition season so the jury's still out on how those kids will fair in '09.

But at least they're not putting up donuts in March.

As far as proven commodities, the Mariners can turn to Adrian Beltre and the motivation of a contract push. I wouldn't expect the 48 home runs and .334 average of the Great Los Angeles Dodger Contract Year, but you might see a spike from his customary 25 bombs/.270 average.

Ken Griffy Jr.'s best days are obviously well behind him, but maybe a return to the playground of his early years will spark a return to his 30 homer/.260 days in Cincinnati.

Russell Branyan and Chris Shelton will give you three things—some power, NO average, and an obscene number/rate of strikeouts. Shelton is absolutely white-hot thus far in Spring Training.

But the two best options on offense for Seattle are Ichiro Suzuki and Jose Lopez.

Suzuki is a contact-hitting machine who will tear up the base paths—'08 saw him hit .310 with 20 doubles, six HRs, 103 runs scored, 42 runs batted in, 43 stolen bases (only caught four times), a .361 on-base percentage, and a .747 OPS. The man has perfected the slap-happy approach to getting on base, has speed to burn even in his mid-thirties, and knows the art of baserunning.

Lopez is perhaps the least appreciated player in MLB. His 2008 line has to be double-checked to make sure it's accurate—a .297 average, 41 doubles, 17 bombs, 80 runs, 89 RBI, a .322 OBP, and a .764. This from a 25-year-old second baseman.

How is he not a bigger name? Oh...right, he plays in Seattle.

As I said, if the youngsters can fill in the gaps (and there are several), the Mariner offense could be pretty slick. Even slick enough to slide Endy Chavez into the outfield rotation for extra defense and speed.

As slick as it may be, though, the offense will not be the strength of this club—the starting pitching is the obvious star.

King Felix seemed to figure out his control issues in '08 and that helped keep his ERA and WHIP down—175 Ks against 80 walks with only a 3.45 ERA in the AL, pretty nifty. The 17 bombs in 200+ innings were a tad too many considering his home field (Safeco) is cavernous. Still, the kids only gonna be 23 in April.

Erik Bedard's 2008 campaign was pretty much a total loss due to injury, but the guy's resume gets him a mulligan. His alleged demeanor makes me reluctant to do so, but his numbers are stellar even more so considering the regularity with which he faced the brutal lineups in the AL East.

Carlos Silva and Jarrod Washburn are mediocre at best, but Brandon Morrow has the potential to vault onto the same level as Hernandez and Bedard. Maybe even this year.

Unfortunately, the pitching security ends when the Mariners turn to the relievers. These guys are wobbly to say the least.

Many baseball observers expect Roy Corcoran, Mark Lowe, or even Miguel Batista to take the closer's rein. However, Randy Messenger's gotten the only saves thus far in Spring Training. That seems to indicate the job is at least his to lose at the moment.

Randy Messenger, Seattle Mariners closer—that's gotta put some fear in your heart if you follow the Rainy City Warriors. All the more so because Tyler Walker seems destined for a role in the 'pen.

Trust me. When, not one, but two ex-San Francisco Giant relievers figure prominently in your preseason blueprint, your hand should be inching towards the panic button.

That said, Corcoran is a talent, Cesar Jimenez looks like a sincerely-effective young lefty, and you never know when a fireman's gonna put it all together without warning. Maybe Messenger—only 28 in August and a physical beast—settles his wildness and becomes a reliable door-slammer.

Time will tell, but Seattle's gonna have some trouble if it doesn't and none of the other options pan out. That will leave the end of games wide open and nobody can thrive in that situation. Sooner or later, the psychological toll becomes too much for the rest of the staff and everything falls apart.

If it works and the young bats come alive, the Seattle Mariners will be in business. That's a whole bunch of 'if,' but that's what makes the wait for Opening Day worthwhile.